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<i><font size="+1"><b>June 28, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[Nation analysis]<br>
<b>Climate change: Ireland on the verge of its 'greenest government
ever'</b><br>
Ireland stands on the brink of putting climate change at the heart
of its government if Green Party members vote in favour of a new
coalition.<br>
<br>
The new administration plans to ban fracked gas imports from the US,
make steep cuts in emissions and end new drilling for oil and gas.<br>
<br>
Agreed in talks with two larger parties, the plan now needs the
support of two thirds of Green members...<br>
- - <br>
"There's a new generation of activists that believe in climate
justice and they don't feel that you can separate issues around
housing, issues around finance, issues around taxation from
environmental concerns," said Neasa Hourigan, who is a new Green
party TD (Member of Parliament).<br>
<br>
While she helped negotiate the programme for government, she is now
urging members to reject it.<br>
<br>
"Until you address everything in terms of the fabric of how we
operate as a society, then really what you're doing is just
compartmentalising something into one area and that's not going to
effect real climate action," she told BBC News.<br>
<br>
"It has to be system change instead of climate change."...<br>
- -<br>
"In a climate emergency when your house is on fire, you deal with
the emergency and then when that's stabilised we'll get onto all the
other good stuff," said John Gibbons...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53147271">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53147271</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[good question - clips]<br>
<b>FRANCE WANTS TO MAKE HURTING THE PLANET ILLEGAL, BUT WHAT IS
ECOCIDE?</b><br>
<blockquote>At the forefront of the CCC's suggestions is a call for
'ecocide', or the extensive damage of ecosystems, to become a
crime in France. The group suggests that the decision to introduce
climate protections into French law should be made by a
referendum.<br>
<br>
Making 'ecocide' a crime will allow "planetary limits" for global
warming, such as the 1.5 maximum proposed by the IPCC, to be
enforced by a "higher authority" responsible for protecting the
environment.<br>
<br>
Making ecocide illegal creates a legal duty of care for the
environment giving it rights. It would make those who commission,
the destruction of the natural world, like chief executives and
government ministers, criminally liable.<br>
<br>
A bill featuring similar measures to make "the serious and lasting
damage to the environment" a crime was rejected by the French
Senate in 2019.<br>
<br>
The CCC has presented its proposals to protect the environment to
Minister for Ecological Transition, Elisabeth Borne, and will meet
with French president on the 29th June.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.euronews.com/living/2020/06/25/france-wants-to-make-hurting-the-planet-illegal-but-what-is-ecocide">https://www.euronews.com/living/2020/06/25/france-wants-to-make-hurting-the-planet-illegal-but-what-is-ecocide</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Beyond the year 2100]<br>
<b>[Nature Communications] Published: 08 May 2020</b><br>
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100
and 2300 from an expert survey<br>
<p>Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S. H.
Lee, Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E.
Engelhart & Stefan Rahmstorf</p>
Abstract<br>
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are
vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To
elicit projections from members of the scientific community
regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a
survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely
(central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and
0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same
experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and
1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to
those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has
extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give
a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that
under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper
bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is
considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to
open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end
estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies
about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater
contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.<br>
see the graph:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5/figures/1">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5/figures/1</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<p>[at 71, now I agree]<br>
<b>Pessimism about the future may lead to longer, healthier life</b><br>
Date: February 27, 2013<br>
Source: American Psychological Association (APA)<br>
Summary:<br>
Older people who have low expectations for a satisfying future may
be more likely to live longer, healthier lives than those who see
brighter days ahead, according to new research published by the
American Psychological Association.<br>
<br>
"Our findings revealed that being overly optimistic in predicting
a better future was associated with a greater risk of disability
and death within the following decade," said lead author Frieder
R. Lang, PhD, of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg in Germany.
"Pessimism about the future may encourage people to live more
carefully, taking health and safety precautions." The study was
published online in the journal Psychology and Aging.<br>
<br>
Lang and colleagues examined data collected from 1993 to 2003 for
the national German Socio-Economic Panel, an annual survey of
private households consisting of approximately 40,000 people 18 to
96 years old. The researchers divided the data according to age
groups: 18 to 39 years old, 40 to 64 years old and 65 years old
and above. Through mostly in-person interviews, respondents were
asked to rate how satisfied they were with their lives and how
satisfied they thought they would be in five years.<br>
<br>
Five years after the first interview, 43 percent of the oldest
group had underestimated their future life satisfaction, 25
percent had predicted accurately and 32 percent had overestimated,
according to the study. Based on the average level of change in
life satisfaction over time for this group, each increase in
overestimating future life satisfaction was related to a 9.5
percent increase in reporting disabilities and a 10 percent
increased risk of death, the analysis revealed.<br>
<br>
Because a darker outlook on the future is often more realistic,
older adults' predictions of their future satisfaction may be more
accurate, according to the study. In contrast, the youngest group
had the sunniest outlook while the middle-aged adults made the
most accurate predictions, but became more pessimistic over time.<br>
<br>
"Unexpectedly, we also found that stable and good health and
income were associated with expecting a greater decline compared
with those in poor health or with low incomes," Lang said.
"Moreover, we found that higher income was related to a greater
risk of disability."<br>
<br>
The researchers measured the respondents' current and future life
satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10 and determined accuracy in
predicting life satisfaction by measuring the difference between
anticipated life satisfaction reported in 1993 and actual life
satisfaction reported in 1998. They analyzed the data to determine
age differences in estimated life satisfaction; accuracy in
predicting life satisfaction; age, gender and income differences
in the accuracy of predicting life satisfaction; and rates of
disability and death reported between 1999 and 2010. Other
factors, such as illness, medical treatment or personal losses,
may have driven health outcomes, the study said.<br>
<br>
The findings do not contradict theories that unrealistic optimism
about the future can sometimes help people feel better when they
are facing inevitable negative outcomes, such as terminal disease,
according to the authors. "We argue, though, that the outcomes of
optimistic, accurate or pessimistic forecasts may depend on age
and available resources," Lang said. "These findings shed new
light on how our perspectives can either help or hinder us in
taking actions that can help improve our chances of a long healthy
life."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130227101929.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130227101929.htm</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[better check the source on this one]<br>
Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood: Benefits of seeing
a dark future?<br>
Lang, Frieder R.,Weiss, David,Gerstorf, Denis,Wagner, Gert G.<br>
Lang, F. R., Weiss, D., Gerstorf, D., & Wagner, G. G. (2013).<br>
Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood: Benefits of seeing
a dark future?<br>
Psychology and Aging, 28(1), 249-261. <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0030797">https://doi.org/10.1037/a0030797</a><br>
<br>
Anticipating one's future self is a unique human capacity that
contributes importantly to adaptation and health throughout
adulthood and old age. Using the adult life span sample of the
national German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; N [is above] 10,000,
age range 18 to 96 years), we investigated age-differential
stability, correlates, and outcomes of accuracy in anticipation of
future life satisfaction across 6 subsequent 5-year time
intervals. As expected, we observed few age differences in current
life satisfaction but stronger age differences in future
expectations: Younger adults anticipated improved future life
satisfaction, overestimating their actual life satisfaction 5
years later. By contrast, older adults were more pessimistic about
the future, generally underestimating their actual life
satisfaction after 5 years. Such age differences persisted above
and beyond the effects of self-rated health and income. Survival
analyses revealed that, in later adulthood, underestimating one's
life satisfaction 5 years later was related to lower hazard ratios
for disability (n = 735 became disabled) and mortality (n = 879
died) across 10 or more years, even after controlling for age,
sex, education, income, and self-rated health. Findings suggest
that older adults are more likely to underestimate their life
satisfaction in the future and that such underestimation was
associated with positive health outcomes. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fa0030797">https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fa0030797</a><br>
<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Activism news]<br>
<b>What is Real Security | Extinction Rebellion</b><br>
What are the links between the military and climate change? How is
campaigning for the environment linked to the campaign for Nuclear
Disarmament? How can we build successful campaigns as we lift out of
the Covid Crisis?<br>
<br>
Join XR Peace founder, Angie Zelter in conversation with Marine
turned war-abolitionist Brian Jones, anti-nuclear and environmental
activist David Collins, Nobel Peace Prize winner Rebecca Johnson and
Quaker, feminist and peace activist Janet Fenton as they discuss the
links between war, climate and energy.<br>
<br>
Co-hosted by XR PEACE <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNVxLiDuOic">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNVxLiDuOic</a><br>
<p>- - -</p>
[See also]<br>
<b>THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE & SECURITY</b><br>
EXPLORING THE SECURITY RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climateandsecurity.org/">https://climateandsecurity.org/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
June 28, 2006 </b></font><br>
<p>The documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" is released in the
United States. (Executive producer Dean Devlin and electric-car
advocate Chelsea Sexton would appear on the July 7, 2006 edition
of "EcoTalk with Betsy Rosenberg" on Air America to discuss the
film.)</p>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/k96tIRjxzw0">http://youtu.be/k96tIRjxzw0</a> <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/07/who_killed_the_.html">http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/07/who_killed_the_.html</a>
<br>
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