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<i><font size="+1"><b>July 5, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[Opinion upset]<br>
<b>Stop making sense: why it's time to get emotional about climate
change</b><br>
Rebecca Huntley<br>
4 Jul 2020 <br>
The science has been settled to the highest degree, so now the key
to progress is understanding our psychological reactions...<br>
- - <br>
Over the 15 years I've been a social researcher, I've watched with
concern the increasing effects of climate change, and also watched
as significant chunks of the electorate voted for political parties
with terrible climate change policies.<br>
There is clearly a disconnect between what people say they are
worried about and want action on and who, when given the chance,
they pick to lead their country.<br>
The science behind climate change has been proven correct to the
highest degree of certainty the scientific method allows. But
climate change is more than just the science. It's a social
phenomenon. And the social dimensions of climate change can make the
science look simple - the laws of physics are orderly and neat but
people are messy...<br>
- -<br>
So when it comes to talking to people about climate change, it helps
enormously to think about it not just as a scientific question but
as a social and political one. But understanding how people's
already existing (and often entrenched) political allegiances
influence their response to climate change is only part of the
picture. Understanding their emotional reactions is even more
important, and that leads us from politics towards psychology.<br>
<br>
Viewing the climate change issue through a psychological lens yields
endless important insights into why we are where we are. Have a look
at the must-watch 2018 Ted Talk by the meteorologist J Marshall
Shepherd, on three kinds of bias that shape your worldview. As a
self-proclaimed weather geek, he often gets asked if he believes in
climate change. He finds the question odd because science isn't
about belief. It's about proof that things are real or not. He is
agog at the chasm between what scientists know to be true and what
surveys have shown the US public believes about issues like
vaccinations, evolution and, of course, climate change.<br>
<br>
This has led the natural scientist to start thinking about
psychology, namely what biases shape our perceptions of the world
around us. He picks three big ones. The first, and probably the most
obvious, is confirmation bias, namely that we zero in on evidence
that supports what we already believe. Confirmation bias is even
more pronounced in a world where we can use our social media to
filter out information we don't want to absorb and where we follow
influencers who reinforce our existing beliefs.<br>
The second bias is called Dunning-Kruger, which describes our human
tendency to think we know more than we do as well as to
underestimate what we don't know. Again, I see this happen in focus
groups all the time, when participants with no scientific
credentials or training pick apart the science of climate change.<br>
<br>
The third and final bias is cognitive dissonance. When people
encounter actions or ideas they cannot reconcile psychologically
with their own beliefs, they experience discomfort. They then try to
resolve their discomfort by arguing away the new evidence.<br>
<br>
Given that climate change is such a discomforting topic, I see this
cognitive dissonance all the time in focus groups, where people try
to find reasons other than climate change for the events happening
around them, even when faced with a strong scientific explanation.
They pick it apart because of Dunning-Kruger and then, because of
confirmation bias, try to find a blog that states something other
than what the scientific evidence shows...<br>
J Marshall Shepherd argues that we need to close the gap between
public perception and scientific fact, to create a better future and
preserve life as we know it. He challenges us to take an inventory
of our biases and of the beliefs we use to prop them up. Think about
where you get your information, how reliable it is and whether you
only read the things that agree with what you want to think rather
than the actual truth. Then share what you've learned - about
yourself and about the world - with other people.<br>
<br>
I'm not saying facts don't matter or the scientific method should be
watered down or we should communicate without facts. What I am
saying is that now the climate science has been proven to be true to
the highest degree possible, we have to stop being reasonable and
start being emotional.<br>
<br>
More science isn't the solution. People are the solution.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/05/stop-making-sense-why-its-time-to-get-emotional-about-climate-change">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/05/stop-making-sense-why-its-time-to-get-emotional-about-climate-change</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[More science anyway - Beckwith video starts 7 mins in]<br>
<b>High Risk of Simultaneous Crop Failures in North America, Europe,
and Asia From Stuck Jet Streams</b><br>
Jul 3, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
With Abrupt Climate System Change, we are hit with worsening,
severe, increasingly grave consequences. When the Jet Stream Rossby
Waves get stuck in persistent quasi-resonant locking patterns with
wavenumbers 5 and 7 (i.e. 5 and 7 wavelengths: a ridge H and a
trough L is one wavelength cycle) circumventing the planet then
crucial agricultural regions in North America, Europe, and Asia have
lower yields. This jet stream resonance with Earth (from topography
and land-ocean temperature contrasts) causes simultaneous crop
failures spiking food prices causing geopolitical conflict and
mayhem.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/-dZecBLntF8">https://youtu.be/-dZecBLntF8</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Nature Climate Change ]<br>
<b>A typology of compound weather and climate events</b><br>
<blockquote>Abstract<br>
Compound weather and climate events describe combinations of
multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to
societal or environmental risk. Although many climate-related
disasters are caused by compound events, the understanding,
analysis, quantification and prediction of such events is still in
its infancy. In this Review, we propose a typology of compound
events and suggest analytical and modelling approaches to aid in
their investigation. We organize the highly diverse compound event
types according to four themes: preconditioned, where a
weather-driven or climate-driven precondition aggravates the
impacts of a hazard; multivariate, where multiple drivers and/or
hazards lead to an impact; temporally compounding, where a
succession of hazards leads to an impact; and spatially
compounding, where hazards in multiple connected locations cause
an aggregated impact. Through structuring compound events and
their respective analysis tools, the typology offers an
opportunity for deeper insight into their mechanisms and impacts,
benefiting the development of effective adaptation strategies.
However, the complex nature of compound events results in some
cases inevitably fitting into more than one class, necessitating
soft boundaries within the typology. Future work must homogenize
the available analytical approaches into a robust toolset for
compound-event analysis under present and future climate
conditions.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Key points</b><br>
- Compound events -- a combination of multiple drivers and/or
hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk -- are
responsible for many of the most severe weather-related and
climate-related impacts.<br>
<br>
- A classification of compound events is proposed, distinguishing
events that are preconditioned, multivariate, temporally compounding
and spatially compounding.<br>
<br>
- The typology aids compound-event analysis by facilitating the
selection of appropriate analysis and modelling tools.<br>
<br>
- Through altering the distribution of climate variables and their
spatial and temporal dependencies, climate change affects the
likelihood, nature and impacts of compound events.<br>
<br>
- Bottom-up approaches, which link sectoral impacts to physical
hazards, can help understand and, ultimately, better prepare for
emerging risks posed by compound events. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s1558-020-0832-y#Sec5">https://www.nature.com/articles/s1558-020-0832-y#Sec5</a><br>
<br>
<p>[more] <br>
<b>Future climate risk from compound events</b><br>
J Zscheischler, S Westra, BJJM Van Den Hurk… - Nature Climate …,
2018 - nature.com<br>
Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a
combination of interacting<br>
physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
The combination of<br>
processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant
impact is referred to as a<br>
'compound event'. Traditional risk assessment methods typically
only consider one driver<br>
and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of
risk, as the processes that<br>
cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or
temporally dependent. Here we …<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[catholic trend]<br>
<b>Pope: cooperatives for clean energy against climate change</b><br>
In a tweet to mark the International Day of Cooperatives, Saturday,
Pope Francis notes that cooperatives across the globe are making a
real difference in the fight against climate change.<br>
By Robin Gomes<br>
For the past 97 years, the International Day of Cooperatives has
been celebrated each year on the first Saturday of July. Since
1995, the United Nations and the International Cooperative Alliance
have chosen the theme of the annual day. The focus for this year is
on climate action for sustainable development for a healthier,
fairer and more united economy.<br>
<br>
In a tweet for Saturday's observance, Pope Francis also focused on
the role of cooperatives in the fight against climate change. "In
some places, cooperatives are being developed to exploit renewable
sources of energy which ensure local self-sufficiency," the Pope
wrote on his Twitter account @Pontifex. "They can make a real
difference in the fight against climate change, thanks to a strong
sense of community and a deep love for the land," he added.<br>
<br>
<b>Cooperatives - people-centred development</b><br>
The aim of the annual celebration is to increase awareness about
cooperatives. Being people-centred, not capital-centred,
cooperatives distribute wealth in a fairer way. As farms,
businesses, or other organizations which are owned and run jointly
by members who share the profits or benefits, cooperatives are
committed to the sustainable development of their communities,
environmentally, socially as well as economically. They support
community activities, local sourcing of supplies to benefit the
local economy, and decision-making that considers the impact on
their communities.<br>
<br>
<b>Healthy, social and integral progress</b><br>
Pope Francis' tweet is an echo from his landmark encyclical "Laudato
Si'", which addresses issues of justice, peace and development with
regard to the use of the goods of creation. He says that technology
can be used for a type of progress which is "healthier, more human,
more social, more integral", such as when "cooperatives of small
producers adopt less polluting means of production, and opt for a
non-consumerist model of life, recreation and community".<br>
<br>
Addressing representatives of the Confederation of Italian
Cooperatives on 16 March 2020, the Pope observed that the way of the
cooperatives is to "take the lid off" of an economy that risks
producing goods but at the cost of social injustice.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>UN: Challenges of Covid-19 and climate change</b><br>
In a message for the June 4 International Day of Cooperatives, UN
Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, focused on the role of
cooperatives in addressing the challenges caused by the Covid-19
pandemic and climate change and in forging a path towards an
inclusive and equitable future for all. <br>
<br>
He noted that the dual crises of the pandemic and the climate
emergency "are disproportionately affecting the world's most
vulnerable countries and people, and deepening many social and
economic rifts". The crises are also highlighting the need to
strengthen global cooperation and solidarity.<br>
<br>
This year's observance, he said, underscores the contribution of
cooperatives in addressing these challenges, achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals and forging a path towards an
inclusive and equitable future.<br>
<br>
"Cooperatives and other social and solidarity economy enterprises,"
Guterres noted, "can also point the way toward resilience in times
of crisis".<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2020-07/pope-francis-cooperatives-day-climate-renewable-energy-justice.html">https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2020-07/pope-francis-cooperatives-day-climate-renewable-energy-justice.html</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
[source material]<br>
<b>ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI' OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS</b><b><br>
</b><b>ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html">http://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
July 5, 2012 </b></font><br>
<p>Economist Yoram Bauman and law professor Shi-Ling Hsu point out
the benefits of a federal carbon tax in a New York Times article.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/opinion/a-carbon-tax-sensible-for-all.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/opinion/a-carbon-tax-sensible-for-all.html</a><br>
</p>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/<br>
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