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<i><font size="+1"><b>July 10, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[CBS weather report]<br>
<b>Relentless heat wave to bake the U.S. for "multiple weeks"</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-across-united-states-multiple-weeks/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-across-united-states-multiple-weeks/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[So sayeth TIME magazine]<br>
<b>2020 Is Our Last, Best Chance to Save the Planet</b><br>
In the future, we may look back at 2020 as the year we decided to
keep driving off the climate cliff–or to take the last exit...<br>
- -<br>
However, we do have a choice of how bad it will get. If we invest in
preserving nature and transitioning our energy system today, we will
stave off the worst, giving us the ability to manage the hurricanes
and floods as they come. If we wait, we'll be stuck flat-footed when
the worst arrives, watching in dismay as the temperature curve ticks
up and up.<br>
<br>
The choice is ours. We just don't have much time to decide.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://time.com/5864692/climate-change-defining-moment/">https://time.com/5864692/climate-change-defining-moment/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[fundamentals]<br>
<b>Climate change: 'Rising chance' of exceeding 1.5C global target</b><br>
By Matt McGrath<br>
Environment correspondent<br>
9 July 2020<br>
<br>
The World Meteorological Organisation says there's a growing chance
that global temperatures will break the 1.5C threshold over the next
five years, compared to pre-industrial levels.<br>
<br>
It says there's a 20% possibility the critical mark will be broken
in any one year before 2024.<br>
<br>
But the assessment says there's a 70% chance it will be broken in
one or more months in those five years.<br>
<br>
Scientists say that keeping below 1.5C will avoid the worst climate
impacts.<br>
<br>
The target was agreed by world leaders in the 2015 Paris climate
accord accord.<br>
<br>
They committed to pursue efforts to try to keep the world from
warming by more than 1.5C this century...<br>
- -<br>
If the 1.5C threshold is broken in one of the coming years, the
experts stress it won't mean the targets are invalid.<br>
<br>
However it will, once again, underline the urgency of significant
emissions cuts to prevent a long-term move to this more dangerous,
warmer world.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[Political wrangling]<br>
<b>Big Oil's Fallback Plan Is Falling Flat</b><br>
But the industry's political lobbying during the pandemic has been
a smashing success.<br>
<br>
By Alexander C. Kaufman<br>
The oil and gas industry is in crisis. Crude prices plunged into
negative territory at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and
oil giants in recent months cut dividends to shareholders and
wrote down the value of their assets by tens of billions of
dollars. Utilities this week abandoned a major gas pipeline as
wind and solar smashed records. As of last month, 17 countries had
set targets to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles. <br>
<br>
Yet petrochemicals -- the sector producing everything from
plastics to polyester fabrics to paint -- looked like a safe bet.
Exxon Mobil Corp. is spending $20 billion on chemical and refining
plants across the Gulf Coast. Royal Dutch Shell PLC is
constructing a massive complex in Pennsylvania to churn ethane, a
component in fracked natural gas, into polyethylene plastic.
China's state-owned Sinopec Corp. last month opened its third
petrochemical facility in 18 months. <br>
<br>
There is, however, a "hole in the hedge," as The Economist
magazine declared in a print headline last month. The price of
plastic resins dropped amid the pandemic, and cheap oil is
undercutting the United States' natural gas-based petrochemical
buildout. Regulations are mounting as new research shows plastic
pollution is so severe and ubiquitous that tiny particles are
appearing in remote locales. <br>
<br>
"Petrochemicals and plastic will not be how the oil and gas
industry grows its way out of this crisis or climbs its way out of
debt," a report published Thursday by the nonprofit Center for
International Environmental Law concluded. "The plastic market is
saturated, and a short-term uptick in demand for personal
protective equipment will not change the long-term downward
trajectory of plastic use." <br>
Plastic isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Between 1971 and 2015,
demand for plastic outpaced that for other bulk materials such as
cement, aluminum and steel, according to International Energy
Agency data. And demand keeps growing. By 2050, nearly half of all
growth in oil demand is estimated to come from plastics. <br>
<br>
But as oil and gas giants scale back drilling and lose billions on
existing investments, the profit margins on plastics and other
petrochemicals are slimming down. Prices for plastic resins -- the
raw pellets made from ethylene or other feedstocks -- plunged in
March, and few if any have recovered, according to a report by
Plastics Technology, an industry trade group.<br>
<br>
Refiners in Asia and Europe invested in making resins from
naphtha, a flammable liquid mix distilled from oil, peat or coal.
In the U.S., where the fracking boom made natural gas cheap and
plentiful, the industry instead built a fleet of "cracker" plants,
sprawling complexes of pipes and furnaces that heat ethane -- a
component in natural gas -- into ethylene and polyethylene. The
IEA estimated that 40% of the world's ethane-based production
capacity is in the U.S. <br>
But the historic drop in oil prices "essentially eliminated the
huge, years-long competitive cost advantage that North American
[natural gas-based polyethylene] producers have enjoyed over their
international naphtha-based counterparts," Plastics Today, a trade
publication, reported on June 30. <br>
Regulations, meanwhile, are proliferating quickly as global
outrage grows over the extent of plastic pollution. The presence
of granular microplastics in the oceans, Great Lakes and even
Arctic snow is well known. But researchers found tiny bits of
airborne plastic in 98% of dust samples collected in 11 national
parks and wilderness areas, according to a study published last
month in the journal Science.<br>
<br>
By last year, 127 countries started regulating plastic bags. Eight
U.S. states banned plastic bags as of the start of this year. In
2019, the European Parliament voted to ban many single-use plastic
items by 2021 and require member states to collect 90% of plastic
bottles by 2029. In January, China, the largest producer of
single-use plastics, started phasing out most nonbiodegradable
bags, straws and cutlery over the next two years. <br>
<br>
COVID-19 may reverse the trend. As officials struggled to contain
the virus, the industry and its allies began pressing to halt or
reverse bans across the world. While the European Union denied the
request, the United Kingdom postponed its ban on some plastics
until later this year. In the U.S., states such as New Hampshire
banned reusable bags, fearing they could spread the virus, in
favor of single-use paper or plastic bags.<br>
<br>
The lobbying successes extend beyond plastics. Between March and
July, 64% of the oil and gas industry's global efforts to increase
financial support for fossil fuel production or roll back climate
regulations were either "completely" or "mostly successful,"
according to a study published Thursday by InfluenceMap, a British
think tank that tracks corporate influence on policy. Another 26%
of lobbying efforts were ongoing.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oil-plastics_n_5f060aa1c5b67a80bc01dd3e">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oil-plastics_n_5f060aa1c5b67a80bc01dd3e</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[PR Influence Map]<br>
<b>Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Are Dominating Climate Policy Battles
During COVID-19</b><br>
An InfluenceMap Briefing<br>
July 2020<br>
<b>Executive Summary</b><br>
New research from InfluenceMap shows the oil and gas sector to have
dominated climate related policy battles stemming from COVID-19
crisis. Interventions from the industry seeking<br>
deregulation and support for fossil fuels in recovery packages have
drowned out pro-climate<br>
interventions from the non-fossil corporate sector. They have also
been over twice as likely<br>
to succeed based on detailed assessment of quick wins obtained thus
far. Given the<br>
compressed time scales at which this is unfolding, a new tracking
platform RecoveryMap is<br>
being launched to allow real time access to this data and analysis.<br>
The research has tracked 121 instances of corporate and industry
association lobbying<br>
interventions globally that are relevant both to the COVID-19 crisis
and the climate<br>
emergency from March 1st to July 1st. The vast majority of these are
associated with fossil<br>
fuel value chain companies including automotive and aviation, as
well as oil, gas and coal<br>
production. InfluenceMap's analysis of the lobbying of key sectors
can be found in the<br>
Appendix of this document, along with important examples.<br>
The smaller number of positive corporate interventions largely
consist of top-line, public<br>
statements that companies have signed urging policymakers to
implement a "green"<br>
recovery. The research also tracked instances of more tactical
positive lobbying by industry<br>
groups representing the renewable energy sector. Neither these
top-line statements of<br>
support nor lobbying by renewable groups is likely to be able to
match the more intensive<br>
lobbying by powerful groups representing the fossil fuel value chain
sectors.<br>
The research scores the outcomes of these lobbying interventions
where decisions have been<br>
made thus far. It assesses them as 'successful', 'mostly
successful', 'mostly unsuccessful', or<br>
'unsuccessful' in shaping the COVID-19 recovery as it relates to
climate and energy policy.<br>
Where decisions are pending, or the results are unclear, the
lobbying is scored as "ongoing".<br>
This applies to only 30% of the 121 lobbying data points,
highlighting the compressed<br>
timescales of policy decisions since March 2020<br>
<br>
The oil and gas sector has been both the most active and the most
successful in its lobbying<br>
interventions to date, with 64% of lobbying engagements either
completely or mostly<br>
successful, and a further 26% ongoing. The aviation sector has been
similarly effective, with<br>
63% of its lobbying engagements being either completely or mostly
successful.<br>
Less successful sectors are automotive, with 59% of its engagements
resolved unsuccessfully<br>
or mostly unsuccessfully, and coal, with 47% of its engagements
resolved unsuccessfully or<br>
mostly unsuccessfully. This relative failure may represent waning
trust on the part of<br>
policymakers, especially in Europe, in the climate intentions of
companies in these sectors. It<br>
is noted that this analysis does not include state-owned industry,
which might counterbalance<br>
this trend, particularly for coal.<br>
Pro-climate, cross-sector interventions have seen limited success so
far, with only 28% of<br>
those assessed being at least partially successful. In contrast to
the in-depth policy advocacy<br>
from the fossil fuel lobbyists, pro-climate business coalitions have
generally limited their<br>
interventions to top-line statements and letter-signings which alone
are unlikely to be as<br>
effective as tactical lobbying by well-organized industry groups.
However, 72% of these<br>
positive interventions were assessed on policy that is still
'ongoing', indicating there is<br>
opportunity for pro-climate companies willing to ramp up strategic
engagement on this issue.<br>
The analysis indicates the presence of global trends, with the oil
and gas sector most<br>
dominant in the US, Canada and Australia. The coal sector has been
mostly unsuccessful in<br>
convincing policymakers in the US and the EU that it merits specific
financial support,<br>
although emerging evidence shows that coal companies have been a
major benefactor of the<br>
US government's Paycheck Protection Program. Coal has seen more
success in other nations<br>
where coal forms a key part of the energy mix, for example in
Indonesia. Lobbyists<br>
representing the automotive sector have also encountered the least
success in Europe in<br>
pushing a negative climate agenda that is increasingly at odds with
the EU's climate<br>
commitments. Despite this, a relentless campaign from European
natural gas lobby has made<br>
inroads on EU climate ambition, looking to insert gas as a necessary
part of the EU's "green"<br>
recovery. <br>
The success of the fossil fuel value chain, particularly the oil and
gas sector, can be attributed<br>
to its powerful ecosystem of lobbying actors globally. These groups
come prepared to target<br>
detailed policy decisions as they unfold and bring to the table
entrenched narratives linking<br>
jobs and economic growth with the fossil fuel value chain in key
economies. The success of<br>
this is also due to the universal lack of transparency around
corporate lobbying in general<br>
which has enabled lobbyists to push for policies with clear negative
societal and<br>
environmental implications without being held to account.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://influencemap.org/site/data/000/542/InfluenceMap_COVIDClimateLobby_report_July2020_FINAL.pdf">https://influencemap.org/site/data/000/542/InfluenceMap_COVIDClimateLobby_report_July2020_FINAL.pdf</a><br>
- - -<br>
[Important]<br>
<b>Why the Fossil Fuel Lobbyists are Winning</b><br>
Through this analysis and from its ongoing corporate climate
lobbying platform, InfluenceMap has<br>
unpicked the tactical playbook of the fossil fuel value chain
lobbyists amid the COVID-19 crisis pushing<br>
for both favorable financial interventions and regulatory rollbacks.<br>
InfluenceMap's analysis shows significant success from fossil fuel
value chain lobbyists in both these<br>
short-term tactics and long-term goals, although the short-term
success is strikingly evident.<br>
InfluenceMap's analysis points to several factors driving this
success.<br>
<b>Pre-existing and Powerful Climate Lobbying Capacity:</b> Fossil
fuel value chain companies,<br>
particularly those within the oil and gas sector, have coordinated
networks of lobbyists<br>
globally who are actively engaged on climate policy, such as the
powerful American<br>
Petroleum Institute (API) which scored early wins on regulatory roll
backs in the US. These<br>
networks were quickly mobilized at the start of the COVID-19 crisis
to take advantage of fastmoving policy decisions when high levels of
public confusion provided cover for quick wins on<br>
climate deregulation and financial support. In general, the lobbying
machines of pro-climate<br>
sectors such as renewables do not possess such capacity or resources
to match those of the<br>
fossil fuel value chains. Pro-climate, cross-sector business
coalitions generally took much<br>
longer to organize a response to the COVID-19 crisis, with many
pro-climate companies likely<br>
focusing on more immediate issues for their business.<br>
<b>Tactics Focused on Lobbying as well as Top-Line Messaging:</b> In
contrast to the varied tactics<br>
and in-depth policy advocacy from the fossil fuel lobbyists,
pro-climate business coalitions<br>
have thus far generally limited their interventions to high-level,
public policy statements<br>
which alone are unlikely to be as effective in swaying the
all-important binding details of<br>
policy changes.<br>
<b>Green Recovery Framing: </b>While the emerging concept of a
"green recovery" has begun to<br>
gain traction in some countries, this is not yet challenging deeply
entrenched narratives that<br>
tie economic growth and jobs to the fossil fuel value chain,
particularly in economies such as<br>
the US and Russia with large fossil fuel industries.<br>
<b>Lack of Transparency:</b> The process of corporate lobbying is
universally opaque, a feature<br>
which enables companies and their lobbyists to push for policies
with clear negative societal<br>
and environmental implications without being held to account. The
added stress on<br>
governmental policymaking processes caused by urgent timescales and
social distancing<br>
measures have compounded this problem and enabled opportunistic
lobbyists to push for<br>
highly controversial policy positions.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://influencemap.org/site/data/000/542/InfluenceMap_COVIDClimateLobby_report_July2020_FINAL.pdf">https://influencemap.org/site/data/000/542/InfluenceMap_COVIDClimateLobby_report_July2020_FINAL.pdf</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[measurements]<br>
<b>CO2 in Earth's atmosphere nearing levels of 15m years ago</b><br>
Last time CO2 was at similar level temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter
and sea levels were 20 metres higher<br>
<br>
The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is
approaching a level not seen in 15m years and perhaps never
previously experienced by a hominoid, according to the authors of a
study.<br>
<br>
At pre-lockdown rates of increase, within five years atmospheric CO2
will pass 427 parts per million, which was the probable peak of the
mid-Pliocene warming period 3.3m years ago, when temperatures were
3C to 4C hotter and sea levels were 20 metres higher than today.<br>
<br>
But it seems we must now go much further back to see what's ahead.<br>
<br>
Some time around 2025, the Earth is likely to have CO2 conditions
not experienced since the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum 15m years
ago, around the time our ancestors are thought to have diverged from
orangutans and become recognisably hominoid...<br>
For the paper published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, a
team of researchers from the University of Southampton constructed a
new high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 during the Pliocene
using data derived from the boron levels in tiny fossils about the
size of a pin head collected from deep ocean sediments of the
Caribbean Sea.<br>
<br>
This confirmed trends previously observed in ice cores, but also
allowed a more precise estimate of the CO2 range in that geological
epoch, when levels of solar radiation were the same as today.<br>
<br>
"A striking result we've found is that the warmest part of the
Pliocene had between 380 and 420 parts per million CO2 in the
atmosphere," one of the co-authors Thomas Chalk, said. "This is
similar to today's value of around 415 parts per million, showing
that we are already at levels that in the past were associated with
temperature and sea-level significantly higher than today."<br>
<br>
"Currently, our CO2 levels are rising at about 2.5 ppm per year,
meaning that by 2025 we will have exceeded anything seen in the last
3.3 million years."<br>
<br>
The authors said the study of the past provided a guide to what is
likely to happen in the future as the Earth responds to the buildup
of greenhouse gas from the past two centuries of industrial
emissions.<br>
<br>
"Ice sheets today haven't had a chance to catch up with CO2 forcing.
We are burning through the Pliocene and heading towards a
Miocene-like future," said another of the authors, Gavin Foster, a
professor of isotope geochemistry at the University of Southampton.
"We now have to go further back in time to find situations that are
relevant."<br>
<br>
During the Middle Miocene, ice sheets shrank further and sea levels
were much higher than the Pliocene. Foster said this was long before
anything recognisably human had evolved on Earth.<br>
<br>
The steady increase in temperatures in the current era were
highlighted on Thursday by a new international collaboration
coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and led by the
UK's Met Office. In the first of what will be an annually
annually-updated five-year climate prediction, the scientists noted
that there is a 20% chance of the world temporarily reaching 1.5C
above pre-industrial levels before 2025.<br>
<br>
"This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the
enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris agreement on climate
change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well
below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit
the temperature increase even further to 1.5C," said the WMO
secretary-general, Petteri Taalas.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/09/co2-in-earths-atmosphere-nearing-levels-of-15m-years-ago">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/09/co2-in-earths-atmosphere-nearing-levels-of-15m-years-ago</a><br>
- - <br>
[source material]<br>
<b>Atmospheric CO2 during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period and the M2
glaciation</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67154-8">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67154-8</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[NYTimes]<br>
<b>Japan's Deadly Combination: Climate Change and an Aging Society</b><br>
Record-breaking rains this week in the country's southernmost main
island, which have killed 62, have shown the vulnerability of people
living in nursing homes...<br>
- -<br>
In recent years, climate change has spurred more torrential rains in
Japan, causing deadly flooding and mudslides in a nation with many
rivers and mountains. The people most vulnerable to the risks of
this extreme weather are the elderly, of which Japan has the highest
proportion in the world...<br>
- - <br>
"Under the emerging impact of global warming, there is an increasing
risk or potential that rainfall amounts could be at a level that we
haven't experienced in the past," Professor Nakamura said. "So I
think that citizens must realize that their previous experience may
no longer work. We have to act even earlier or faster than what we
have experienced in the past."...<br>
- -"Despite having highly trained staff, world-class equipment and
well-established emergency response plans," he added, "when things
go sideways, this lack of coordination between state, prefectural
and local authorities inordinately delays the response, leaving
vulnerable citizens unnecessarily exposed to harm."<br>
<br>
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initially dispatched about 10,000
Self-Defense Forces troops to Kyushu over the weekend. Earlier this
week, he doubled the number to 20,000, along with 60,000 police
officers, firefighters and Coast Guard rescue workers...<br>
- - <br>
"When we have victims from disasters, multiple unlucky factors are
involved," he said. "This time that was the case, too. The best
solution is to relocate to a safer area."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/world/asia/japan-climate-change-rains-elderly.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/world/asia/japan-climate-change-rains-elderly.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[it is never too late to change, the sooner we start the more
powerful our actions]<br>
<b>Another Month Gone, Another Month Entering the Global Warming
Record Books</b><br>
With Siberia burning under unprecedented heat, our planet
experienced a virtual tie for warmest June on record.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/another-month-gone-another-month-entering-the-global-warming-record-books">https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/another-month-gone-another-month-entering-the-global-warming-record-books</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[More heat -- more bugs]<br>
<b>Microbiome may mediate link between climate change and new
diseases</b><br>
Scientists have proposed a new model of animal diseases that
includes the role of the microbiome. Their research suggests that
climate change may lead to the emergence of new infectious
diseases...<br>
- - <br>
The researchers' key message is that human activities are changing
the environment in profound ways that will impact wildlife and
people. Protecting the health of both requires a broad research
approach that takes account of a range of influences, including the
microbiome.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/microbiome-may-mediate-link-between-climate-change-and-new-diseases">https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/microbiome-may-mediate-link-between-climate-change-and-new-diseases</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
July 10, 2007 </b></font><br>
<p>On MSNBC's "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," Air America host
Rachel Maddow points out the mainstream media's fetish for false
balance, specifically citing climate coverage.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/vcMFwuu_UlA">http://youtu.be/vcMFwuu_UlA</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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