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<i><font size="+1"><b>July 12, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[Scientific American]<br>
<b>Worrisome Signs Emerge for 1.5-Degree-C Climate Target</b><br>
There is a 24 percent chance that global average temperature could
surpass that mark in the next five years...<br>
- -<br>
According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization
and the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office, there's about a 24%
chance the world's average temperatures will rise to 1.5 degrees
Celsius above their preindustrial levels during at least one of the
years between 2020 and 2024...<br>
- - <br>
A stark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in
2018 suggested it's still technically possible to achieve the 1.5 C
goal -- but global carbon emissions must drop to zero by the year
2050, with significant reductions already made by 2030.<br>
<br>
It's a timeline that would require an unprecedented overhaul of
global energy, transportation and land use systems. At the moment,
international commitments under the Paris climate agreement are
nowhere near enough to get it done in time.<br>
<br>
"While it's not impossible, we certainly don't see the political
will evident today for those sorts of reductions," Hausfather said.
"I'm personally not very confident that we're going to be able to
limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. That makes it all the more
important to make sure we take enough action to limit it to below 2
degrees."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/worrisome-signs-emerge-for-1-5-degree-c-climate-target/">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/worrisome-signs-emerge-for-1-5-degree-c-climate-target/</a><br>
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[audio podcast Hot Take] <br>
<b>You're Worried about the Wrong Climate + Cancel Culture Done
Right + Refugees on a Warming Ocean + More </b><br>
We hope you've all had a chance to listen to our Season 2 premiere
episode in which we sat down with Kendra Pierre-Louis to discuss the
tectonic shifts that are taking place in the media industry and what
that could mean for climate coverage. <br>
Hot Take with Mary Annaise Heglar and Amy Westervelt<br>
An intersectional look at the climate crisis and the climate
conversation.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://podlink.to/realhottake">https://podlink.to/realhottake</a><br>
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<br>
[video conjectures justifying radical action]<br>
<b>Pivoting to the Endgame | Roger Hallam | Extinction Rebellion</b><br>
Jul 11, 2020<br>
Extinction Rebellion<br>
Recorded in London, July 2020.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEdXgB9urN0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEdXgB9urN0</a><br>
<br>
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[social stress]<br>
Climate & conflict<br>
<b>Roadmap for Studying Link between Climate and Armed Conflict</b><br>
Published 9 July 2020<br>
Climate change--from rising temperatures and more severe heavy rain,
to drought--is increasing risks for economies, human security, and
conflict globally. Scientists are offering ways better to assess the
climate-conflict link to help societies manage the complex risks of
increased violence from a changing climate.<br>
<br>
Climate change--from rising temperatures and more severe heavy rain,
to drought--is increasing risks for economies, human security, and
conflict globally. Scientists at the University of Miami (UM)
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science are leading an
effort to better assess the climate-conflict link to help societies
manage the complex risks of increased violence from a changing
climate<br>
<br>
The links between climate and the risk of violent conflict are well
studied; however, scientists in varying research disciplines often
disagree about the scope and severity of possible climate change
impacts. Some of the open research questions are about the links
between climate change and violence, including large-scale armed
conflict.<br>
<br>
In a new report in Earth's Future, a group of scholars, with
backgrounds including environmental and political science,
geography, and economics, analyze the relationship between climate
and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for
future directions of research. In a previous assessment published in
2019 by the group, it was estimated that over the last century
between 3-20 percent of organized armed conflict risk has been
influenced by climate.<br>
<br>
In this new assessment, the scholars suggest that future directions
for climate-conflict research include deepening insight on what the
links are, when they matter, and how they manifest. They suggest
that future research can use data from diverse sources, including
satellite and drone imagery, social media, and population surveys.<br>
<br>
"Our changing climate poses threats for human security," said
Katharine Mach, an associate professor at the UM Rosenstiel School
and lead author of the assessment. "In this commentary perspective,
we provide a roadmap for future research that is supportive of
appropriate societal responses. The options include deepening our
understanding of how climate shapes security and conflict risks, as
well as the ways in which research can prioritize ethical,
interactive, and ongoing engagement with the many organizations and
governments promoting peace and stability in societies."<br>
<br>
Changes in Earth's climate are already impacting societies and
economies and will further increase the risks of a range of
outcomes, including civil conflict, which is profoundly and
enduringly destructive for societies. Comprehensive and
transdisciplinary efforts are needed to fully understand the
multifaceted links between climate and conflict and appropriate
responses by governments and humanitarian assistance organizations.<br>
<br>
"This research topic is controversial and contested," said Caroline
Kraan, a PhD student in the Abess Graduate Program in Environmental
Science and Policy. "We came together to provide a full range of
expert views to establish a way forward for research that can serve
decision-making needs."<br>
<br>
According to the authors, priorities for future directions of
research include (1) deepening insight into climate-conflict
linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously
integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future
risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision-making,
and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage
climate-conflict links.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20200709-roadmap-for-studying-link-between-climate-and-armed-conflict">http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20200709-roadmap-for-studying-link-between-climate-and-armed-conflict</a><br>
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[readiness]<br>
<b>Texas Needs To Prepare For A 'Megadrought,' State Climatologist
Warns</b><br>
MOSE BUCHELE - JUL 10, 2020<br>
Texas is no stranger to droughts. From the bone-dry stretch of the
1950s, the state's longest drought, to the fiery months of 2011, the
state's single driest year, droughts have shaped Texas' culture and
economy.<br>
<br>
But, according to the state climatologist of Texas, we ain't seen
nothing yet.<br>
<br>
John Nielsen-Gammon, who is also a professor of atmospheric sciences
at Texas A&M University, is the lead author of a new paper that
forecasts the arrival of more extreme droughts through this century.
These could include decades-long "megadroughts," which have not
afflicted the state for a thousand years.<br>
<br>
"There's some question about whether we should actually refer to
what's coming as a drought," says Nielsen-Gammon, whose paper was
published last month in the journal Earth's Future. "Because a
drought is something that happens temporarily and goes away. And
we're talking about something that is effectively going to be
permanent - at least in terms of human lifespan."<br>
<br>
The bottom line, according to climate models, is that an increasing
aridness will grip the state. Soil will dry up and not be able to
support the same amount of agriculture and plant and animal life.
Nielsen-Gammon says it will make the climate of East Texas more like
that of West Texas, and the climate of West Texas more like that of
New Mexico.<br>
<br>
There will be less water in the reservoirs, and without new ways of
storing water, Texas will no longer be able to support human
activity. So, he says, state water planners should be preparing for
it now.<br>
<br>
Water Planning In Texas<br>
Texas manages its water resources based on what the paper calls a
"rear-view mirror approach."<br>
<br>
The state water plan, updated every five years, aims to prepare
Texas for a drought like the seven-year-long "drought of record"
that took place in the '50s. What it does not do is consider how
climate change could further drain water supplies.<br>
<br>
"For example," the paper says, "the state plan reports only a 3%
decrease in surface water availability from 2020 to 2070," while
climate change could bring a much steeper drop.<br>
<br>
Climate change "means our margin of safety of our water supplies
becomes smaller and smaller unless we adapt our planning to keep up
with it," Nielsen-Gammon says.<br>
<br>
That means groups that use and distribute water in the state, like
agricultural interests and local and regional water authorities,
should use tools for forecasting the impacts of climate change on
their water supply.<br>
<br>
Nielsen-Gammon says climate models are improving when it comes to
predicting what climate change means for specific locations over
specific periods of time.<br>
<br>
"It won't generally be at the level of a particular aquifer impact
or a particular stream, but you can at least tell basically which
way the winds are blowing," he says.<br>
<br>
Planning Takes Money And Will<br>
The paper points to the City of Austin as an example of how one
local government can prepare for a drier future.<br>
<br>
After the drought of 2011, Austin decided to create a plan to ensure
it had enough water for the next 100 years. It incorporated the
increasing likelihood of drought driven by climate change into the
process.<br>
<br>
The result is the city's "Water Forward: Integrated Water Resource
Plan." It recommends everything from increased water conservation to
the creation of an underground aquifer water-storage system to
tackle climate change.<br>
<br>
But, planning with that level of detail and sophistication takes two
things that can be hard to find in Texas: money and a willingness to
accept the reality of climate change.<br>
<br>
Nielsen-Gammon says groups without the economic resources of a city
like Austin should still prepare "based on the more general
projections of somewhat drier conditions and perhaps allow for some
additional safety margin taking account what climate change might
produce for them."<br>
<br>
When it comes to the acceptance of climate science, he says he
thinks it's starting to happen in Texas. The main reason for that is
not a drought, but a flood: the one caused by Hurricane Harvey.<br>
<br>
"We simply can't ignore those sorts of out-of-the-box natural
disasters," he says. "Effectively, certain types of natural
disasters are becoming more and more likely because of climate
change."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.kut.org/post/texas-needs-prepare-megadrought-state-climatologist-warns">https://www.kut.org/post/texas-needs-prepare-megadrought-state-climatologist-warns</a><br>
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[Media analysis about global warming]<br>
MeCCO is <b>Media and Climate Change Observatory</b><br>
MeCCO monitors 117 sources (across newspapers, radio and TV) in 53
countries in seven different regions around the world. MeCCO
assembles the data by accessing archives through the Lexis Nexis,
Proquest and Factiva databases via the University of Colorado
libraries.<br>
Current issue - Issue 42, June 2020<br>
<br>
<b>"Our racial inequality crisis is intertwined with our climate
crisis. If we don't work on both, we will succeed at neither"</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/issue42.html">https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/issue42.html</a><br>
<blockquote>June 2020 brings us to a crossroads. Media coverage of
climate change or global warming has dropped dramatically from the
start of the year, and remains low. In June, media attention to
climate change and global warming at the global level stayed at
the same levels as May 2020 coverage. However, compared to June
2019 news articles and segments about climate change and global
warming in June 2020 decreased 46%. Regionally, the ongoing stream
of stories in in June increased in Asia (up 37%), the Middle East
(up 17%), Europe (up 9%) and Africa (up 7%). In contrast, coverage
went down in North America (down 15.5%), Oceania (down 13%) and
Latin America (down 6%) from May 2020.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/">https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/</a>
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[Beckwith video]<br>
<b>Number of Lightning Flashes per Square Kilometer of Land Surface
Area to Increase 12% per degree C</b><br>
Jul 11, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
The Clausius-Clapeyron equation says there is 7% more water vapour
in the atmosphere for every 1 degree C of warming. Water vapour
rises by convection of hot air masses; cools, condenses and releases
latent heat energy fueling more powerful storms. Science studies
find that the number of lightning flashes per unit of ground area
(flashes per square km) scales with multiplication of the CAPE
(Convective Available Potential Energy) with the rainfall amount.
Thus, the frequency of lightning flashes increases by 12% per degree
C of warming. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh5Eym3Tog8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh5Eym3Tog8</a><br>
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<br>
[News long ago ignored]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
July 12, 2013 </b></font><br>
<p>USA Today reports:<br>
<br>
"U.S. energy supplies will likely face more severe disruptions
because of climate change and extreme weather, which have already
caused blackouts and lowered production at power plants, a
government report warned Thursday.<br>
<br>
"What's driving these vulnerabilities? Rising temperatures, up 1.5
degrees Fahrenheit in the last century, and the resulting sea
level rise, which are accompanied by drought, heat waves, storms
and wildfires, according to the U.S. Department of Energy."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/11/climate-change-energy-disruptions/2508789/">http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/11/climate-change-energy-disruptions/2508789/</a><br>
</p>
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