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<i><font size="+1"><b>Sunday July 19, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[turnabout]<br>
<b>A Plunge in Mass Transit Ridership Deals a Huge Blow to Climate
Change Mitigation</b><br>
Transit agencies ask Congress for relief as commuters return to
their cars and fare revenues tank. Meanwhile, driving direction
requests--and carbon emissions--soar.<br>
- - <br>
For years, environmentalists and other mass transit advocates have
pointed to public transportation as a way to reduce pollution and
help curb climate change. But as cities across the country come out
of lockdown, and people begin moving around again, commuters by the
thousands appear to be choosing driving over public transportation.<br>
<br>
One recently updated study found that traffic, and carbon emissions,
quickly rebounded across the world in early June as lockdowns began
lifting. And in the United States, phone and other device data
suggest that while all of the nation's traffic plunged during the
height of the pandemic in April and May, only public transit use
remains below pre-pandemic levels as states reopen...<br>
- - <br>
If that trend continues, it means even more traffic congestion--and
carbon emissions--than before the pandemic, said Elizabeth Irvin, a
senior analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists.<br>
<br>
As the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.,
the transportation sector is responsible for nearly a third of the
nation's total emissions, according to the Environmental Protection
Agency...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16072020/climate-change-new-york-city-metro-subway-coronavirus-mass-transit">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16072020/climate-change-new-york-city-metro-subway-coronavirus-mass-transit</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Online August 6th]<br>
<b>American Climate Leadership Summit 2020 will now be a 100%
virtual live event!</b> Join us each Thursday during the month of
August for a series of live webcasts featuring
thought-and-action-provoking topics and speakers in an engaging and
interactive online experience. You'll hear from our great speakers
(plus a few new ones) focusing on the prescient climate topics
updated to reflect our modern times. Each 3-hour webcast will
include engaging conversation, Q+A with you the participants, and a
few additional ways for you to engage, all the while we individually
and collectively avoid air travel and reduce our carbon footprint.<br>
<br>
If there was ever a time to make a difference on climate change,
that time is now. Join us to connect on climate, with speakers and
each other, and to move climate action in America forward during
these unprecedented times.<br>
We are making progress and have had some good success in the climate
fight recently, but we are still nowhere near where we need to be to
be comfortable about our future. The upcoming months, with the
elections and the 117th congress will be pivotal. Help us all
broaden and activate greater public support and political resolve at
the 9th annual American Climate Leadership Summit 2020. <br>
<br>
The topics couldn't be more relevant, and we've assembled some
fantastic climate leaders - Christiana Figueres, Katharine Hayhoe,
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Seth Goldman, Naomi Oreskes, Senator
Brian Schatz, Bill McKibben, Chris Anderson (TED) and many others
will be joining live.<br>
<br>
ACLS 2020 Speakers, Agenda and Registration available at this link<br>
<br>
Our usual two day in-person event will now be a series of three-hour
webcasts each Thursday afternoon in August starting at at 2 pm ET/11
am PT. We will expand and diversify participation, making ACLS2020
accessible with a pay-what-you-can model.<br>
<br>
Attendance at ACLS 2020 will now be on a pay-what-you-can basis.
However, ecoAmerica would greatly appreciate your financial support
to offset the costs of shifting to and hosting a virtual event.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://web.cvent.com/event/5b81798a-40e8-4872-adfc-e14958de2914/summary">https://web.cvent.com/event/5b81798a-40e8-4872-adfc-e14958de2914/summary</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[news analysis]<br>
<b>The Trump administration cooks the climate change numbers once
again</b><br>
BY RICHARD RICHELS, HENRY D. JACOBY, GARY YOHE AND BEN SANTER,
OPINION CONTRIBUTORS -- 07/18/20 <br>
In its campaign against action on greenhouse gas emissions, one of
the more subtle moves by the Trump administration is its
manipulation of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). This number is used
to represent the damage resulting from emitting an additional ton of
carbon. Climate economists sometimes refer to it as the most
important number you've never heard of. Undermine the SCC and you
can discredit action to fight climate change, boost support for the
fossil fuel industry, tip the scales away from renewable energy and
counter other important policy initiatives. Fortunately, in a
detailed report on the estimation of the SCC, the congressional
watchdog General Accounting Office has called out this latest
affront to reliable assessment of the science and risks of climate
change.<br>
<br>
The SCC is a key input to the benefit-cost analyses required of all
federal regulatory actions, and thus is an important factor in their
justification. The federal SCC estimate has also been adopted by
several states. Examples of the SCC's use are abundant, including
the setting of reasonable federal standards for the performance of
private automobiles and appliances.<br>
<br>
Estimating the SCC requires joint consideration of natural and
social science aspects of the climate change problem. A federal
working group spent nearly a decade on this process. Recognizing
that the underlying methodology needed rigorous and impartial
review, the interagency group commissioned a comprehensive update by
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS). The 2017 NAS report
supported the previous approach to valuing the SCC, recommending a
program of research and analysis to improve the estimate.<br>
The Trump administration did not follow this recommendation.
Instead, it imposed measures to hobble reliable estimation of the
SCC. The earlier working group was disbanded, associated documents
were withdrawn and the NAS study was ignored. Instead, changes were
made to limit the SCC's scope and the weight it gave to future
generations. These changes cannot be justified by either the science
or the standards deemed acceptable for benefit-cost studies.<br>
<br>
As a result of the administration's changes, the previous central
value for the SCC - roughly $50 per ton of CO2 - was reduced by
nearly 90 percent. <br>
<br>
These changes are misguided and pernicious. They limit damages to
those occurring within U.S. borders, and thus reflect a tragic
misunderstanding about climate change and the U.S. national
interest. CO2 emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels,
impact every person on the planet, regardless of the geographical
location of the source. To limit current and future climate change
damages, it is in the U.S. national interest not only to reduce its
own emissions, but also to encourage other countries to do the same.
The administration's near-zero SCC does just the opposite, offering
other countries a pretense for adopting positions that mimic those
of the world's second-largest emitter. <br>
<br>
There are many other causes for concern. The impacts of our
emissions will be felt most cruelly by the most vulnerable
Americans, and by those countries least able to cope with the
ensuing damages. Ignoring the needs of these individuals and
countries threatens to exacerbate societal inequities at home and to
create millions of environmental refugees abroad. Humanitarian
crises that would burden rich and poor nations alike are the obvious
consequences. Preventing these crises is both the right thing to do
and in our own self-interest.<br>
<br>
Another critical aspect of the SCC calculation is the value placed
on future generations. Intergenerational equity is a contentious
topic. There are reasonable debates among social scientists about
what constitutes fairness in the treatment of unborn generations.
Despite these disagreements, there is convergence among scholars as
to what represents a plausible range of discount factors. The
administration, ignoring the prudent advice of the NAS authors and
other knowledgeable experts, provides no analysis of its own. It
simply mandates a set of discount rates at the higher end of the
spectrum, to the disadvantage of future generations. <br>
In its assessment of the administration's SCC procedure, the GAO
uses careful diplomatic language. It writes that, ". . . the federal
government may not be well positioned to ensure agencies' future
regulatory analyses are using the best available science." Our
interpretation is more direct: Ignoring the science to cook the
numbers discredits the federal process for public decision-making.<br>
<br>
The GAO recommends that a federal agency should be made responsible
for addressing the NAS report, and for ensuring that the
best-available science is used in calculating the SCC. Sadly, there
is little expectation that this recommendation will be heeded by an
administration that denies the reality and seriousness of the
climate threat.<br>
<br>
Richard Richels directed climate change research at the Electric
Power Research Institute (EPRI). He served on the National
Assessment Synthesis Team for the first U.S. National Climate
Assessment.<br>
<br>
Trump turns White House into backdrop for political events<br>
Support swells for renaming Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma to
honor...<br>
Henry D. Jacoby is the William F. Pounds Professor of Management,
Emeritus in the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and former
co-director of the M.I.T. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of
Global Change.<br>
<br>
Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and
Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in
Connecticut. He served as convening lead author for multiple
chapters and the Synthesis Report for the IPCC from 1990 through
2014 and was vice-chair of the Third US National Climate Assessment.<br>
<br>
Ben Santer is a climate scientist and member of the U.S. National
Academy of Sciences. He served as convening lead author of the
climate change detection and attribution chapter of the IPCC's
Second Assessment Report and has contributed to all five IPCC
assessments. ...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/507929-the-trump-administration-cooks-the-climate-change-numbers-once">https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/507929-the-trump-administration-cooks-the-climate-change-numbers-once</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[38 million evacuated as rains keep coming]<br>
<b>China Slammed by Floods</b><br>
Jul 18, 2020<br>
China Uncensored<br>
Heavy rainfall has lead to sever flooding in most of China. And
worst of all, some fear the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River is
in danger of collapsing. Millions are at risk many have been
displaced by floods and natural disasters.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ygz6wL1M2s">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ygz6wL1M2s</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
[Brazil]<br>
<b>Dramatic footage fuels fears Amazon fires could be worse than
last year</b><br>
As dry season starts campaigners sound alarm over 'shocking' scale
of fires, as Bolsonaro doubles down on denials<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/17/dramatic-footage-fuels-fears-amazon-fires-could-be-worse-than-last-year">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/17/dramatic-footage-fuels-fears-amazon-fires-could-be-worse-than-last-year</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[video summary of Dr James Hansen's collected work]<br>
<b>Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 1 of 3</b><br>
Jul 17, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
James Hansen is one of my climate heroes. He tried to tell the world
about the grave threat of climate change by testifying to the US
Congress in 1988 but nobody wanted to listen. Ten years ago he wrote
the totally awesome book "Storms of my Grandchildren". He and his
team diligently update numerous graphs on global energy, global
temperature, solar activity, greenhouse gas levels and rates of
change, ENSO cycles, global precipitation and drought, wind,
hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, sea level, Greenland and
Antarctica ice sheet loss, butterflies, forcings, aerosols, and
paleoclimate. Have I missed anything:)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVv9jkgGQEE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVv9jkgGQEE</a><br>
- - -<br>
[2 of 3]<br>
<b>Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 2 of 3</b><br>
Jul 17, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
I continue chatting on James Hansen climate graph updates and key
findings. Global emissions continue rising, exceeding 10 PgC/yr
(Gt/yr), with the airborne fraction from 45 to 64%. Atmospheric CO2
growth is about 2.5 ppm/yr (5-year mean) spiking over 3 ppm/yr some
years. Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean is 1.3C
(add 0.3 for 1750 baseline). Land surface temperature rise is about
double that of sea surface temperature rise. Northern Hemisphere
warming anomaly is greatest in autumn, then winter, then spring and
least in summer. Siberia is gonzo. Solar irradiance is at a minimum
in sunspot cycle. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2e3EjKdEmw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2e3EjKdEmw</a><br>
- - - -<br>
[3 of 3]<br>
<b>Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 3 of 3</b><br>
Jul 17, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
Global temperature in 2020 is exceeding the record set in powerful
El Niño event 2015-2016, in spite of it not being another El Niño
year. Global precipitation mayhem results in torrential rains with
huge floods in some regions and extreme droughts in other regions
(both bad for crops). Number of powerful Category 3 to 5 Atlantic
hurricanes is trending upwards, as is number of top end tornadoes.
Wildfire average is increasing, correlated with temperature
anomalies. Sea level rise is accelerating, with Greenland and
Antarctica ice mass loss rates doubling every 10 years. Arctic sea
ice is getting crushed like a bug.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGXAKpE48Vg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGXAKpE48Vg</a>
<p>- - - -</p>
[source material links from Dr Hansen site]<br>
<b>Critical Climate Diagnostics and Feedbacks</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/">http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/">http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[from the Republic of Turkey]<br>
<b>De-growth only solution to tackle climate change: Expert</b><b><br>
</b>Restraining population growth, consumption per capita is way to
tackle climate change, climate scientist tells Anadolu Agency<br>
Burak Bir - 18.07.2020<br>
ANKARA <br>
The problem of climate change cannot be solved without tackling
earth's growing human population, which gives rise to greater
consumption and carbon emissions, according to a climate scientist.<br>
<br>
Known as the greatest threat to the planet, the climate crisis is
exacerbated by growing pressure from the human population, while it
continues to increasingly affect the planet's inhabitants.<br>
<br>
In an interview with Anadolu Agency, Levent Kurnaz, a professor at
the Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies at Istanbul's
Bogazici University, described the link between climate change and
the humans as "two cycles" instead of one "vicious circle."<br>
<br>
The main reason behind climate change is greenhouse gas emission,
especially CO2, he said, noting that a rising number of people will
eventually have an effect on themselves, as more people bring more
consumption, and there will be more emission...<br>
- - <br>
The only solution to tackle climate change is de-growth, not only
economically but also de-growth of the population, he stressed.<br>
<br>
As a theory that criticizes economic growth, de-growth is based on
various frameworks, including political ecology, ecological
economics, and environmental justice.<br>
<br>
Reiterating the cycles of the growing population and climate change,
he said: "Both cycles need to be broken ... even if we leave aside
all our consumption habits, and keep what we eat at a minimum, if
the human population rises to 20 billion, this problem will
continue."<br>
<br>
"On one hand, we need to restrain population growth around the
world, and on the other, we need to restrain consumption per
capita," he said.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/de-growth-only-solution-to-tackle-climate-change-expert/1914618">https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/de-growth-only-solution-to-tackle-climate-change-expert/1914618</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
July 19, 2001 </b></font>Proving that the wish is the father
to the thought, White House adviser Karen Hughes tells CNN, "The
whole issue of global climate change is something our administration
is serious about."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/">http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/</a><br>
<br>
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