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<i><font size="+1"><b>July 21, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[Wildfires]<br>
<b>Hog Fire burns more than 5,000 acres west of Susanville, CA</b><br>
AuthorBill GabbertPosted onJuly 20,
2020CategoriesWildfireTagsCalifornia, Hog Fire<br>
Mandatory evacuations are in effect<br>
Much of the smoke from the Hog Fire west of Susanville, CA is
remaining in the general area.<br>
Several of the AlertWildfire cameras near the Hog Fire west of
Susanville, California have little to no visibility due to smoke,
but the Dyer Mountain 1 cam further to the southwest has a good view
of the top of a pyrocumulus cloud generated by the fire.<br>
<br>
The weather forecast for the next 24 hours indicates conditions
favorable to continued fire spread. The prediction for Monday
afternoon is for 95 degrees, relative humidity 13 percent, and winds
out of the northwest at 9 to 16 mph. Monday night the wind will
continue to be out of the northwest at 5 to 9 mph, the temperature
will drop to 64 degrees by sunrise, and there will be poor humidity
recovery, rising during the night only to 40 percent.<br>
<br>
A Red Flag Warning is predicted for Tuesday when the forecast calls
for 95 degrees, 13 percent RH, and 3 to 10 mph winds from the
southeast in the morning shifting to come from the southwest and
west in the afternoon. There is a chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon...<br>
The Hog Fire has prompted mandatory evacuations in northern
California west of Susanville. By Sunday night it had burned 5,800
acres of land protected by the Lassen National Forest and the state
of California. At 3:30 a.m. July 20 the fire was about one mile west
of a housing development on the west side of the William D. McIntosh
Highway (A1) and five miles west of Susanville. It has spread
approximately 5 miles to the east since it started and is on both
sides of Highway 44. Steep terrain and spot fires ahead of the main
fire are complicating efforts of firefighters.<br>
<br>
Resources assigned Sunday night included 25 fire engines, 8 hand
crews, 15 dozers, 15 water tenders, 4 helicopters, and 6 air
tankers.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2020/07/20/hog-fire-burns-more-than-5000-acres-west-of-susanville-ca/">https://wildfiretoday.com/2020/07/20/hog-fire-burns-more-than-5000-acres-west-of-susanville-ca/</a><br>
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</p>
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</p>
[Feedback loop]<br>
<b>MELTING PERMAFROST LINKED TO IMPENDING ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER --
STUDY</b><br>
A phenomenon could add 40 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere
by the year 2100.<br>
Scientists are worried about melting Arctic permafrost. When
permanently frozen ground turns out to be not so permanent,
structures built on permafrost can catastrophically collapse -- and
the bizarre, ranging from abandoned nuclear waste to anthrax, can be
revealed.<br>
<br>
Now, there's another issue to be concerned about: A massive release
of carbon dioxide.<br>
In a natural effect called rhizosphere priming, the roots of plants
accelerate the rate of decomposition in soil microbes -- which, in
turn, releases carbon dioxide. It's no small feature: This effect
can increase decomposition fourfold. Still, current climate
projections don't explicitly account for rhizosphere priming.<br>
<br>
In a new study, researchers did the math and determined that the
phenomenon could add 40 BILLION TONS of carbon to the atmosphere by
the year 2100. This finding was published Monday in the journal
Nature Geoscience.<br>
<br>
That means humans need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more
than expected, say the study authors. Prior to this study,
scientists estimated that global emissions must fall by 7.6 percent
every year over the next 10 years to meet the 1.5C temperature goal
of the Paris Agreement.<br>
<br>
The effect of rhizosphere priming, the research team writes, is
"currently unaccounted for in global emission scenarios and implies
that the remaining anthropogenic carbon budget to keep warming below
1.5 or 2 C ... may need to be even more constrained."<br>
<br>
Permafrost is vital to the world's climate because it stores twice
as much carbon as there is in the atmosphere. Under usual
circumstances, the top layer of the frozen soil thaws during summer,
when plants and microorganisms spring to life. The microbes munch on
plant roots and inevitably emit greenhouse gases since they have to
respirate to live.<br>
This effect creates a FEEDBACK LOOP: More melting soil means there
are more plant roots to feed hungry microbes, which warm the
atmosphere simply by existing.<br>
<br>
The priming effect isn't new. Scientists have been aware of it since
the 1950s. What they didn't know was how this micro-scale ecology
would contribute to global carbon emissions.<br>
<br>
To figure that out, the researchers mapped plant and soil data
across permafrost ecosystems, discovering that priming alone can
increase respiration among soil microbes by 12 percent.<br>
<br>
That translates to 40 billion tons of additional carbon that will be
released in the coming 80 years -- more than the amount the entire
planet releases each year.<br>
<br>
"These new findings demonstrate how important it is to consider
small-scale ecological interactions, such as the priming effect, in
global greenhouse gas emission modeling," study co-author Birgit
Wild, an assistant professor at Stockholm University, explained in a
statement.<br>
<br>
<b>THE DANGER OF ARCTIC WARMING </b>-- While all of Earth is
heating up, warming is significantly worse in the Arctic.<br>
<br>
The past decade was the hottest on record overall, suggests analyses
by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In
the Arctic, air temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global
average.<br>
<br>
This new study shows that permafrost melt can, in turn, prompt
further melt: More carbon in the atmosphere means worsened
atmospheric warming, which means more melting.<br>
<br>
We're already seeing this in action: In late June, a summer heatwave
in Siberia contributed to widespread wildfires on frozen land. The
fires released a record-breaking amount of carbon dioxide, with 18
million hectares of forest burning up. Scientists warn these fires
could lead to more thawing of Arctic permafrost.<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract:</b> As global temperatures continue to
rise, a key uncertainty of climate projections is the microbial
decomposition of vast organic carbon stocks in thawing permafrost
soils. Decomposition rates can accelerate up to fourfold in the
presence of plant roots, and this mechanism--termed the
rhizosphere priming effect--may be especially relevant to thawing
permafrost soils as rising temperatures also stimulate plant
productivity in the Arctic. However, priming is currently not
explicitly included in any model projections of future carbon
losses from the permafrost area. Here, we combine high-resolution
spatial and depth-resolved datasets of key plant and permafrost
properties with empirical relationships of priming effects from
living plants on microbial respiration. We show that rhizosphere
priming amplifies overall soil respiration in permafrost-affected
ecosystems by ~12%, which translates to a priming-induced absolute
loss of ~40 Pg soil carbon from the northern permafrost area by
2100. Our findings highlight the need to include fine-scale
ecological interactions in order to accurately predict large-scale
greenhouse gas emissions, and suggest even tighter restrictions on
the estimated 200 Pg anthropogenic carbon emission budget to keep
global warming below 1.5 C.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.inverse.com/science/melting-permafrost-climate-crisis-study">https://www.inverse.com/science/melting-permafrost-climate-crisis-study</a><br>
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<br>
[observe changes]<br>
<b>Arctic Ocean is set for more turbulent future</b><br>
July 20th, 2020, by Tim Radford<br>
<b>The Arctic Ocean is about to become more violent, with higher
storm waves and higher frequency, across a wide region.</b><br>
<br>
LONDON, 20 July, 2020 - The Arctic Ocean is changing, and changing
fast. By the century's end, the maximum height of storm waves in the
polar seas could have risen by twice or even three times the present
height.<br>
<br>
According to new research, wave heights could increase by two metres
and coastal floods could become four times, or even 10 times, as
frequent.<br>
<br>
And a separate study has found that even the character of the water
in the ocean is changing: warm salty water from the Atlantic is
weakening the ice cover at an accelerating rate, but providing more
nutrients for Arctic life, while extra river water from the Pacific
has made the American-Asian part of the Arctic Ocean less likely to
mix, and less biologically productive.<br>
<br>
The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the planet as a whole:
the ice cover has been thinning and retreating for decades. And
temperatures keep on rising.<br>
<br>
One Siberian town recorded a temperature of 38C in June, and the
region has been hit by devastating forest fires.<br>
<br>
<b>"In many respects, the Arctic Ocean now looks like a new ocean"</b><br>
<br>
And as the oceans warm, winds become more powerful and the ocean
waves respond, with prospects of ever-greater hazard for shipping
and coastal settlements.<br>
<br>
Extreme wave events that once occurred in the Arctic at average
intervals of once every 20 years could by the end of the century
happen every two to five years, according a study in the Journal of
Geophysical Research: Oceans.<br>
<br>
"It increases the risk of flooding and erosion. It increases
drastically almost everywhere", said Mercè Casas-Prat, a researcher
with Environment and Climate Change Canada. "This can have a direct
impact on communities that live close to the shoreline."<br>
<br>
She and a colleague used computer simulations and a range of climate
predictions to work out what will happen to those ocean surfaces not
covered by ice as the seas warm in response to greenhouse gas
emissions from fossil fuel combustion.<br>
<br>
They found that almost everywhere in the Arctic would experience
greater wave height. The hardest-hit would be the Greenland Sea,
bounded by the largest body of ice in the northern hemisphere, and
the Svalbard Archipelago.<br>
<br>
<b>More salty water</b><br>
Maximum annual wave heights could increase by as much as six metres.<br>
"At the end of the century, the maximum will on average come later
in the year and also be more extreme," Dr Casas-Prat said.<br>
<br>
The Arctic Ocean covers only about 3% of the planet's surface, but
it is vulnerable to change in ocean regions much nearer the Equator.
US and Scandinavian scientists report in the journal Frontiers in
Marine Science that they looked at 37 years of direct observation
and measurement to find that not only are Arctic waters changing:
they are changing in different ways.<br>
<br>
Flows of increasingly warm salty water from the Atlantic have begun
to mix at depth, weaken sea ice and bring deeper, nutrient-rich
water to the surface. At the other entrance to the partly landlocked
expanse of water, an increasing flow from rivers has begun to make
the separation of surface and deep layers even more pronounced.<br>
<br>
This limits the movement of nutrients to the surface, potentially
making that part of the sea less biologically rich. Many marine
creatures from low latitudes are moving north, in some cases
replacing local species. The changes could affect fisheries,
tourism, navigation and of course the people who live in the Arctic.<br>
<br>
"In many respects, the Arctic Ocean now looks like a new ocean,"
said Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at the University of Fairbanks,
Alaska, who led the research. - Climate News Network<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-ocean-is-set-for-more-turbulent-future/">https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-ocean-is-set-for-more-turbulent-future/</a>
<p>- -- -</p>
[AGU report]<br>
<b>Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential
implications for coastal inundation and erosion</b><br>
Merce Casas‐Prat Xiaolan L. Wang<br>
First published: 07 July 2020 <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745">https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745</a><br>
This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full
peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting,
pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences
between this version and the Version of Record. <br>
<b>abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>The Arctic Ocean wave climate is undergoing a dramatic
change due to the sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations
of the Arctic regional wave climate corresponding to the surface
winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5
(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for
the historical (1975‐‐2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future
(2081‐‐2100) periods. The annual maximum significant wave height
is projected to increase up to 6 m offshore and up to 2‐3 times
greater than the corresponding 1979‐‐2005 value along some
coastlines, as waves become more exposed to the fall storms there.
The connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic wave
climates is projected to strengthen due to increase of swell
influence. Changes in the wave direction also seem to indicate a
weakening of the Beaufort High illustrated by a counterclockwise
rotation of the mean wave direction for extreme conditions in the
Western Arctic. The projected changes in wave conditions lead to a
general increase of the wave‐driven erosion and inundation
potential along the Arctic coastlines. Potentially hazardous
extreme wave events are projected to become significantly more
frequent and more intense. For example, in the Beaufort coastlines
a once‐in‐20 year event under the historical (1979‐‐2005) climate
is projected to occur, on average, once every 2‐5 years during
2081‐‐2100. This is a pressing issue as it affects many Arctic
coastal communities, as well as existing and emerging Arctic
infrastructure and activities, with some of them having already
suffered severe wave‐induced damage in the past years.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Plain Language Summary</b><br>
<blockquote>The Arctic Ocean wave climate is drastically changing
with remarkable sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations
of historical and future wave climates for the Arctic Ocean. The
results show that the largest waves will be significantly higher
and longer by the end of the century as the ice‐free season
lengthens and waves become more exposed to storms in autumn.
Moreover, the Arctic wave climate was projected to be more
influenced by ocean waves remotely generated in the North
Atlantic, which will be able to propagate to higher latitudes.
This could also lead to changes in the typical wave direction
patterns in the Arctic. The more energetic waves projected for the
future are likely to pose a hazard to the Arctic coastlines, as
the extreme wave events that can cause erosion and inundation will
be more frequent and intense. This is a pressing issue as it
affects many existing Arctic coastal communities and Arctic
infrastructure and activities, some of which have already suffered
severe damage in the past years.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JC015745">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JC015745</a><br>
<p> - - -</p>
[fundamentally]<br>
<b>Heat makes ocean winds and waves fiercer</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/heat-makes-ocean-winds-and-waves-fiercer/">https://climatenewsnetwork.net/heat-makes-ocean-winds-and-waves-fiercer/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[revisiting photos of old disasters new views before the
hurricane season]<br>
<b>On-line exhibition, "Troubled Waters" at Studio Rubedo extended
until July 25th</b><br>
<br>
So if you haven't seen it or would like another look please go to:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://studiorubedo.com/">https://studiorubedo.com/</a><br>
<br>
Also and you can see new work from my ongoing "America's
Endangered Coasts" project that is not included in the exhibition
on my recently revised website:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://johnganisphotography.com/galleries/americas-endangered-coasts-project-continues-new-work/">https://johnganisphotography.com/galleries/americas-endangered-coasts-project-continues-new-work/</a><br>
<br>
And here's a new Re-photographic diptych from the Bolivar
Peninsula, Texas, the site of a house that was inundated by about
8 feet of water during Hurricane Ike (2008) and has not been
redeveloped<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.johnganisphotography.com">www.johnganisphotography.com</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.americasendangeredcoasts.com">www.americasendangeredcoasts.com</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
July 21, 2008</b></font><br>
<p>The UK Office of Communication criticizes Britain's Channel 4 for
running the 2007 denialism doc "The Great Global Warming Swindle."
Below, Peter Sinclair of ClimateCrocks.com debunks the doc.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/science/earth/22clim.html?_r=0">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/science/earth/22clim.html?_r=0</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/boj9ccV9htk">http://youtu.be/boj9ccV9htk</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/8nrvrkVBt24">http://youtu.be/8nrvrkVBt24</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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