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<i><font size="+1"><b>August 7, 2020</b></font></i><br>
<br>
[more than 190% of average season]<br>
<b>CSU researchers now predicting extremely active 2020 Atlantic
hurricane season<br>
</b>05 Aug, 2020 - [updated report]<br>
By CSU University Communications Staff <br>
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their
forecast and now predict an extremely active Atlantic hurricane
season in 2020, citing very warm sea surface temperatures and very
low wind shear in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. Tropical
Atlantic sea surface temperatures averaged over the past month are
at their fourth-highest levels since 1982, trailing only the very
active Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2005, 2010 and 2017.
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for
tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also
associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air,
both of which favor organized thunderstorm activity that is
necessary for hurricane development.<br>
<br>
Vertical wind shear during July was also extremely weak across the
tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Strong vertical wind shear tears
apart hurricanes as they are trying to develop and intensify, and
vertical reduced wind shear aids in hurricane development. When
vertical wind shear is low in July, it also tends to be low during
the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August-October.<br>
<br>
The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has cool neutral
ENSO conditions, that is, the water temperatures are slightly below
average. CSU anticipates that we will either continue to have cool
neutral ENSO conditions or potentially weak La Nina conditions for
the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Nino tends to increase
upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical
Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form. Atlantic
hurricane seasons tend to be much more active when the tropical
Pacific has either cool neutral or La Nina conditions.<br>
<br>
<b>24 named storms</b><br>
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 24 named
storms in 2020, including the nine named storms that have already
formed (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo,
Hanna and Isaias). Of those, researchers expect 12 to become
hurricanes (including the two that have already formed, Hanna and
Isaias) and five to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson
category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or
greater. Twelve hurricanes is the most the team has ever predicted
in their August forecast. This is an increase from the early July
seasonal forecast which predicted 20 named storms, nine hurricanes
and four major hurricanes.<br>
<br>
The team based this forecast on a statistical model that uses
approximately 40 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea
surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear
levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the
atmosphere), El Nino (warming of waters in the central and eastern
tropical Pacific), and other factors.<br>
<br>
So far, the 2020 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics
similar to 1966, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2017. "All of these
seasons were very active in the Atlantic basin, with several (most
notably 1995, 2005 and 2017) being extremely active," said Phil
Klotzbach, research scientist in the CSU Department of Atmospheric
Science and lead author of the report...<br>
The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be about 190
percent of the average season. By comparison, 2019's hurricane
activity was about 120 percent of the average season...<br>
- - <br>
<b>Landfalling probability included in report</b><br>
The report also includes the post-Aug. 4 probability of major
hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S. and Caribbean:<br>
<blockquote>74 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (full-season
average for the last century is 52 percent)<br>
49 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula
(full-season average for the last century is 31 percent)<br>
48 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward
to Brownsville (full-season average for the last century is 30
percent)<br>
63 percent for the Caribbean (full-season average for the last
century is 42 percent)...<br>
</blockquote>
- - <br>
<b>Extended range Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast for 2020</b><br>
Released Aug. 5, 2020<br>
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range<br>
(1981-2010 Climatological Average Forecast for 2020 in parentheses)<br>
<blockquote>Named Storms (12.1) 24<br>
Named Storm Days (59.4) 100<br>
Hurricanes (6.4) 12<br>
Hurricane Days (24.2) 45<br>
Major Hurricanes (2.7) 5<br>
Major Hurricane Days (6.2) 11<br>
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (106) 200<br>
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (116%) 215<br>
</blockquote>
- more at -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://engr.source.colostate.edu/csu-researchers-now-predicting-extremely-active-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season/">https://engr.source.colostate.edu/csu-researchers-now-predicting-extremely-active-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season/</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
[Same data displayed in colorful visuals with commercials]<br>
<b>Colorado State University Raises 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Forecast to 24 Named Storms, Second Most on Record</b><br>
By weather.com meteorologists 2 days ago<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast">https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Colorado Wildfire 5% contained]<br>
<b>Pine Gulch Fire grows to nearly 12,000 acres amid dry, windy
conditions</b><br>
Wildfire in rough terrain near Grand Junction could spread quickly,
officials said<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/06/pine-gulch-wildfire-update-grand-junction/">https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/06/pine-gulch-wildfire-update-grand-junction/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[Alps melting]<br>
<b>Italian homes evacuated over risk of Mont Blanc glacier
collapse</b><br>
Roads near Courmayeur closed to tourists because of threat from
falling Planpincieux ice<br>
6 Aug 2020 <br>
Some 65 people, including 50 tourists, have left homes in Val
Ferret, the hamlet beneath the glacier. Roads have been closed to
traffic and pedestrians.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/06/italian-homes-evacuated-risk-mont-blanc-glacier-ice-planpincieux">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/06/italian-homes-evacuated-risk-mont-blanc-glacier-ice-planpincieux</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[A climate Overton window ]<br>
<b>In tackling the global climate crisis, doom and optimism are both
dangerous traps</b><br>
Overheated polemics won't solve this emergency - and the apocalypse
is a needlessly high bar for action..<br>
- -<br>
This crisis will not be solved quickly or easily, and overheated
polemics are not helping. While it won't be good for us, it also
won't be the literal end of the world. But the apocalypse is a
needlessly high bar to take action. Though most of the challenges we
overcome as a species are not existential risks, they are
nonetheless critically important. We see a real risk that dwelling
on doom may serve to obstruct climate action rather than motivating
it, promoting fatalism and further polarisation. There is also
evidence that fear is not a very effective tool to engage people
around the climate. But dismissing the severity of climate impacts
and the real possibility of worst-case outcomes is also an extremely
dangerous gamble. The risks are serious enough, and we need a common
understanding of the urgent need to tackle them.<br>
<br>
Zeke Hausfather is director of climate and energy at the
Breakthrough Institute in Oakland, California. Richard Betts is head
of climate impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre and
University of Exeter<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/06/global-climate-crisis-doom-optimism-emergency">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/06/global-climate-crisis-doom-optimism-emergency</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Another thing to change]<br>
<b>Why Sprawl Could Be The Next Big Climate Change Battle</b><br>
August 6, 2020<br>
LAUREN SOMMER<br>
President Trump is attacking Democrats on a new front: suburbia.<br>
<br>
"They want to eliminate single-family zoning, bringing who knows
into your suburbs," Trump said on a July campaign call...<br>
- - <br>
"I think the lesson for the rest of the country is that even in
California's liberal suburban enclaves with Black Lives Matter signs
everywhere, residents and local elected officials are still hostile
to opening their communities up to housing that would bring people
with diverse backgrounds and incomes," says Ethan Elkind, director
of the climate program at University of California, Berkeley's law
school.<br>
<br>
<b>NIMBY vs. YIMBY</b><br>
In California, attempts to overhaul single-family zoning have fallen
short. Often it's because they failed to win over Democrats, even
those who supported the state's groundbreaking goals for boosting
renewable energy and cutting carbon emissions.<br>
<br>
"I think climate change is one of the real serious issues that we
have to deal with," says Susan Kirsch, a community organizer in Mill
Valley, Calif. "But I don't think we need to be forcing draconian
measures, taking away local control and local preferences, to be
able to solve that problem."<br>
<br>
In Kirsch's driveway, an electric Toyota Prius is plugged into a
charger. Solar panels cover her roof. Single-family homes like hers
make up much of Mill Valley, a city located about half an hour north
of San Francisco, where the median price is about $1.5 million...<br>
- -<br>
<b>Driving up emissions</b><br>
Overall, carbon emissions are declining in California, largely
thanks to the rise of renewable energy such as solar power. But
emissions from transportation are still going up, a clear obstacle
to the state's goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2045.<br>
<br>
"If you really want to address the climate problem, we're going to
need our neighborhoods to be built in a different way," says Elkind.
"We just simply cannot meet our near-term and certainly our
long-term climate goals unless we address the land use question."<br>
<br>
Studies show that residents of large cities have lower carbon
footprints, generally. Residents in suburbs near a large city can
have 50% higher transportation emissions than city residents...<br>
- - <br>
"I think that there's undertones in, well, we don't want our
neighborhoods to change," says Sanchez. "And to me, I'm left with a
question mark. What's the kind of change you don't want to come to
your neighborhood? What's the expectation that if you densify, a
certain demographic is going to come to your neighborhood?"<br>
<br>
Eliminating single-family zoning alone won't automatically lead to
greater racial equity, he says. Increasing development runs the risk
of gentrification and displacement, so housing justice advocates say
there needs to be strong affordable housing policies and tenant
protections, as well as ensuring that communities of color are
directly part of the planning process.<br>
<br>
"How we make these decisions is really key," says Tiffany Eng of the
California Environmental Justice Alliance. "We have to ask ourselves
who is benefiting from this housing? Who is losing? And what
communities are centered?"<br>
<br>
One of the toughest things in the Minneapolis debate, Bender says,
was helping residents picture how their neighborhoods could change.
Denser zoning challenges the American ideal of a big suburban home.<br>
<br>
Bender says: "When you start to take on those kinds of ingrained
assumptions that somehow that's better, that's where we really start
to open up our minds to the possibility that our city can evolve to
fit future needs of all of our residents."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/812199726/why-sprawl-could-be-the-next-big-climate-change-battle">https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/812199726/why-sprawl-could-be-the-next-big-climate-change-battle</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Dave Roberts is a climate philosopher]<br>
<b>How to drive fossil fuels out of the US economy, quickly</b><br>
The US has everything it needs to decarbonize by 2035.<br>
By David Roberts @drvox <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:david@vox.com">david@vox.com</a> Aug 6, 2020...<br>
- -<br>
The US could be a more prosperous, healthier, and pleasant place to
live.<br>
<br>
"For so long we've been sold the lie that we have to choose between
a livable planet and a thriving, equitable economy," says Varshini
Prakash, executive director of the Sunrise Movement. "The Rewiring
America Plan puts that lie to rest once and for all. We can achieve
a just transition to a better world out of the wreckage of this
economic crisis."<br>
<br>
That's the story that needs to be told about tackling climate
change. Not a story of privation or giving things up. Not a story of
economic decline or inexorable ecological doom. A story about a
better electrified future that is already on the way.<br>
<br>
We can muster the effort and investment over the next 10 to 15 years
to accelerate it, to reach it in time to avert the worst of climate
change. We can have clean air, clean energy, a prosperous economy,
and a stable climate, all the things we want, if we're just willing
to do the work.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Politician gets caught - hand slapped from RL Miller]<br>
<b>Tim Ryan may be removed from fossil fuel pledge</b><br>
"There are multiple violations here," a No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge
organizer said.<br>
Emily Atkin<br>
Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) will be removed from the No Fossil Fuel
Money Pledge if he does not return campaign donations he received
from the scandal-plagued electric utility FirstEnergy, pledge
organizers told HEATED on Wednesday.<br>
<br>
"There are multiple violations here," said Collin Rees, a senior
campaigner with Oil Change U.S., the organization behind the
increasingly popular climate pledge. Rees was referring to HEATED's
Tuesday article showing Ryan and his leadership PAC have taken a
combined $27,500 from FirstEnergy's corporate PAC and company
executives during the 2020 election cycle.<br>
<br>
Ryan's campaign "will have one week to return or rectify the
donations," Rees said. "If they don't, they'll be removed from the
pledge."<br>
<br>
Ryan's office did not return a request for comment.<br>
- -<br>
To date, the pledge has been signed by more than 2,000 candidates
and elected officials across the country, including more than 50
members of Congress and Joe Biden. With their signature,
pledge-takers promise not to knowingly accept more than $200 from
"PACs, lobbyists, or SEC-named executives of fossil fuel
companies—companies whose primary business is the extraction,
processing, distribution, or sale of oil, gas, or coal."...<br>
- -<br>
"Tim Ryan really needs to rethink what he's doing here," Miller
said. "This looks to be the most corrupt, appalling utility I've
ever seen."<br>
<br>
The fact that Ryan signed the No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge makes his
acceptance of FirstEnergy money particularly abominable, Miller
said. But she's also surprised any Democrat is still taking the
utility's money, given the FBI allegations centered upon it.<br>
<br>
"The moment that story first blew up, every single Democrat who says
they care about climate action needed to return that money. And they
haven't," said Miller, who is also a member of the Democratic
National Committee.<br>
<br>
"It's one thing for the Democratic Party to declare on its platform
that we're against fossil fuel subsidies," she said. "It's another
thing for Democrats to be OK with fossil fuel fucking bribes."<br>
<br>
If Ryan or his Democrats colleagues do wind up returning
FirstEnergy's contributions, Miller said, she hopes they money goes
"not back to the FirstEnergy, but to an environmental justice group
in Cleveland or Columbus fighting for the right to breathe."...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://heated.world/p/update-tim-ryan-may-be-removed-from">https://heated.world/p/update-tim-ryan-may-be-removed-from</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[fire projections for sale]<br>
<b>Climate Change and Wildfires: Projecting Future Wildfire
Potential</b><br>
Posted on August 6, 2020<br>
August 6, 2020 - Four Twenty Seven Report. Wildfires are complex
physical phenomena that come at extraordinary costs to human and
natural systems. Climate change is already making wildfires more
severe and this new research finds that it will lead to more days
with high wildfire potential in areas already prone to wildfires,
and create hotter and drier conditions that will expose entirely new
areas. Understanding which areas are exposed to changing wildfire
conditions will help leaders in government, finance and public
health to mitigate catastrophic loss. This report explores Four
Twenty Seven's new methodology for assessing global wildfire
potential, identifying regional trends and hot spots.<br>
The 2019-2020 Australian bushfires raged for seven months, killed
more than 30 people, hospitalized thousands more, and burned more
than 10 million hectares of land. While the full financial and
ecological impact is still unknown, costs from those fires are
likely to exceed $4.4 billion. Meanwhile, ten of the largest
wildfires in Arizona's history occurred in the last eight years and
nine of California's largest wildfires occurred in just the last
seven years. Beyond direct losses and disruption from damage to
buildings and infrastructure, air pollution from wildfires has led
to healthcare costs in excess of $100 billion in losses per year in
the United States. Leaders in government, finance, and public health
need to understand how and where climate change will further
heighten wildfire potential because of the serious threat wildfires
pose to societies, economies, and natural systems.<br>
<br>
Download the report from
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Projecting-Future-Wildfire-Potential_427_8.2020-2.pdf">http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Projecting-Future-Wildfire-Potential_427_8.2020-2.pdf</a><br>
<br>
This new report, Climate Change and Wildfires: Projecting Future
Wildfire Potential, outlines Four Twenty Seven's approach to
quantifying global wildfire potential, capturing both absolute and
relative changes in frequency and severity by 2030-2040. Wildfire
potential refers to meteorological conditions and vegetative fuel
sources that are conducive to wildfires. Using a proprietary
methodology submitted for peer review, our analytics link climate
drivers such as changing temperature and precipitation patterns with
the availability of vegetative fuels to assess wildfire potential in
the future.<br>
<br>
The analysis also explores key regions exposed to increasing
wildfire potential and discusses the implications for financial
stakeholders and communities. Our analytics affirm common
understanding about locations exposed to wildfire, providing an
indication of the increasing severity and frequency of wildfires in
areas already prone to these events. The report also offers insight
into areas that may have less obvious exposure, but are likely to
have higher wildfire potential over time. Preparing for wildfires is
a local, and often regional effort. The relatively high spatial
granularity of our results (~25 kilometers) enables decision-makers
to evaluate wildfire potential at a useful scale.<br>
<br>
<b>Key Findings:</b><br>
Four Twenty Seven developed a first-of-its-kind global dataset
projecting changes to wildfire potential under a changing climate,
at a granularity of about 25 x 25 kilometers.<br>
In areas already exposed to wildfires, by 2030-2040 climate change
will prolong wildfire seasons, adding up to three months of days
with high wildfire potential in Western Australia, over two months
in regions of northern California and a month in European countries
including Spain, Portugal and Greece.<br>
New wildfire risks will emerge in historically wet and cool regions,
such as Siberia, which is projected to have 20 more days of high
wildfire potential in 2030-2040.<br>
Globally, western portions of the Amazon and Southeast Asia will
experience the largest relative increases in wildfire severity,
further threatening crucial biodiversity hotspots and carbon sinks.<br>
Confronting this new risk will take unprecedented resources and new
approaches in regions not familiar with wildfires and worsening
wildfire seasons will continue to threaten already limited resources
in currently exposed areas.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://427mt.com/2020/08/06/projecting-future-wildfire-potential/">http://427mt.com/2020/08/06/projecting-future-wildfire-potential/</a><br>
<p>full 15 page report:-
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Projecting-Future-Wildfire-Potential_427_8.2020-1.pdf">http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Projecting-Future-Wildfire-Potential_427_8.2020-1.pdf</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<br>
<p> </p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
August 7, 2003 </b></font><br>
<p>In a speech at New York University, Al Gore condemns the Bush
administration's dishonesty on climate policy and foreign policy.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.c-span.org/video/?177732-1/former-vice-president-speech"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.c-span.org/video/?177732-1/former-vice-president-speech</a><br>
</p>
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