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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>September 22, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[destabilizations]<br>
<b>Swells from Hurricane Teddy drive major king tide coastal
flooding</b><br>
By Jeff Masters, Ph.D., and Bob Henson | Monday, September 21, 2020<br>
Big swells from the storm are exacerbating "nuisance" flooding along
the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.By Jeff Masters, Ph.D., and
Bob Henson | Monday, September 21, 2020<br>
Significant coastal flooding has been affecting much of the
Southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast since September 15, during the
high "king tide" period associated with the New Moon of September
17. The king tides have been exacerbated by big swells from
Hurricane Teddy, high runoff from the heavy rains from Hurricane
Sally the previous week, and powerful northeast winds associated
with a strong area of high-pressure positioned over New England...<br>
- -<br>
Though it's often called "nuisance" flooding because it poses little
threat to life or limb, high-tide flooding is a fast-growing threat
to the economies and the built environment of coastal areas,
especially along the Gulf and Atlantic shores. In South Florida
alone, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to combat
both long-term sea level rise and also routine "king tides" that are
getting worse. High tide flooding is now accelerating at 75 percent
of NOAA tide gauge locations along the East and Gulf Coasts, with
nearly all other locations rising, but not yet accelerating.
Already, the U.S. annual high tide flooding frequency is more than
twice that in the year 2000 as a result of rising relative sea
levels.<br>
High-tide flooding is distinct from extreme storm surges related to
tropical cyclones and nor'easters, although they can overlap. By
definition, high-tide floods happen at predictable points in the
tidal cycle, such as the period from late summer into autumn when
astronomical tides are at their highest. They can be enhanced by
seemingly innocuous weather features, such as strong high pressure
offshore that pushes high water toward the coast under sunny skies.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/swells-from-hurricane-teddy-drive-major-king-tide-coastal-flooding/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/swells-from-hurricane-teddy-drive-major-king-tide-coastal-flooding/</a><br>
- - <br>
[NOAA Source materials]<br>
<b>PATTERNS AND PROJECTIONS OF HIGH TIDE FLOODING ALONG THE U.S.</b><br>
<b>COASTLINE USING A COMMON IMPACT THRESHOLD</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt86_PaP_of_HTFlooding.pdf">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt86_PaP_of_HTFlooding.pdf</a><br>
- -<br>
[NOAA 2017]<br>
<b>GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR THE </b><b>UNITED
STATES</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[What time is it?]<br>
<b>A New York Clock That Told Time Now Tells the Time Remaining</b><br>
Metronome's digital clock in Manhattan, has been reprogrammed to
illustrate a critical window for action to prevent the effects of
global warming from becoming irreversible.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/09/21/arts/20clock1/merlin_177307434_11868169-c1d4-48c3-b80f-3ddabdd8962a-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp">https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/09/21/arts/20clock1/merlin_177307434_11868169-c1d4-48c3-b80f-3ddabdd8962a-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp</a><br>
By Colin Moynihan<br>
Sept. 20, 2020<br>
<br>
For more than 20 years, Metronome, which includes a 62-foot-wide
15-digit electronic clock that faces Union Square in Manhattan, has
been one of the city's most prominent and baffling public art
projects.<br>
<br>
Its digital display once told the time in its own unique way,
counting the hours, minutes and seconds (and fractions thereof) to
and from midnight. But for years observers who did not understand
how it worked suggested that it was measuring the acres of
rainforest destroyed each year, tracking the world population or
even that it had something to do with pi.<br>
<br>
On Saturday Metronome adopted a new ecologically sensitive mission.
Now, instead of measuring 24-hour cycles, it is measuring what two
artists, Gan Golan and Andrew Boyd, present as a critical window for
action to prevent the effects of global warming from becoming
irreversible...<br>
- -<br>
On Saturday at 3:20 p.m., messages including "The Earth has a
deadline" began to appear on the display. Then numbers --
7:103:15:40:07 -- showed up, representing the years, days, hours,
minutes and seconds until that deadline...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/arts/design/climate-clock-metronome-nyc.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/arts/design/climate-clock-metronome-nyc.html</a><br>
- - -<br>
[telling the new time]<br>
To describe the project, Mr. Golan and Mr. Boyd have created a
website, climateclock.world. It includes an explanation for the
Climate Clock numbers, including a link to a report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations body
that assesses the science related to climate change.<br>
<b>PUT THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN THE WORLD UP EVERYWHERE</b><br>
ClimateClock.world is powered by climate scientists, artists,
educators, and activists across the world with support from
["Beautiful Trouble" and "March for Science"]<br>
<b>KNOW THE NUMBERS</b><br>
The ClimateClock shows two numbers. The first, in red, is a timer,
counting down how long it will take, at current rates of emissions,
to burn through our "carbon budget" -- the amount of CO2 that can
still be released into the atmosphere while limiting global warming
to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This is our deadline, the time
we have left to take decisive action to keep warming under the 1.5C
threshold. The second number, in green, is tracking the growing % of
the world's energy currently supplied from renewable sources. This
is our lifeline. Simply put, we need to get our lifeline to 100%
before our deadline reaches 0.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climateclock.world/">https://climateclock.world/</a><br>
<b>See the science</b><br>
The ClimateClock shows two numbers. The first, in red, is a timer,
counting down how long it will take, at current rates of emissions,
to burn through our "carbon budget" -- the amount of CO2 that can
still be released into the atmosphere while limiting global warming
to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This is our deadline, the time
we have left to take decisive action to keep warming under the 1.5C
threshold. The second number, in green, is tracking the growing % of
the world's energy currently supplied from renewable sources. This
is our lifeline. Simply put, we need to get our lifeline to 100%
before our deadline reaches 0.<br>
<br>
This clock follows the methodology of the carbon clock made by the
Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
(MCC) which uses data from the recent IPCC Special Report on Global
Warming of 1.5C. The report states that starting from 2018, a carbon
dioxide budget of 420 Gt of CO2 gives us a 67% chance to stay under
1.5C of warming.<br>
<br>
"The concept of the carbon budget is based on a nearly linear
relationship between the cumulative emissions and the temperature
rise. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the earth would
necessarily be 1.5⁰C warmer at the very point in time when the
remaining carbon budget for staying below the 1.5⁰C threshold was
used up. This is due to, among others, the fact that there is a time
lag between the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere and the
impact thereof on the temperature".¹<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climateclock.world/science">https://climateclock.world/science</a><br>
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[A new one]<br>
<b>Bright Future – Baba Brinkman Music Video</b><br>
Sep 21, 2020<br>
Baba Brinkman<br>
Nuclear power is an essential resource in combatting climate change.
Where does your electricity come from? Clean energy means
everything.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EO9iPj9SZs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EO9iPj9SZs</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Techno Hubris opinion]<br>
<b>Geoengineering Is the Only Solution to Our Climate Calamities</b><br>
Altering Earth's geophysical environment is a moon shot--and it will
be the only way to reverse the damage done. It's time to take it
more seriously...<br>
- - <br>
Governments and environmental advocates are right to demand that all
organizations involved in geoengineering transparently disclose
their funding, objectives, and results on sites such as
Geoengineering Monitor. But right now, it is more important for such
projects to be scaled in the first place. Given the infant state of
geoengineering techniques and the cowardly state of global
regulation, moral hazard is hardly our biggest concern. Governments
and activists can continue to push for strong emissions reductions
while blunting the consequences of those already choking us at the
same time.<br>
<br>
At this point, we no longer have any choice but to rely on
scientific cost-benefit calculations to drive the climate agenda.
But there is still a vital need for national efforts to shorten
global supply chains for food and energy. The silver lining to
climate disruptions, Covid border closures, and trade wars could be
encouraging more countries to invest in local agriculture, whether
organic or hydroponic greenhouses, plant-based proteins, and
converting food waste into energy. Local self-sufficiency is a
sensible step towards collective resilience. In the so-called
circular economy, everyone can be part of the geoengineering
solution.<br>
<br>
Not all geoengineering is the stuff of Hollywood fantasy. Planting
billions of trees from Canada and Russia to Brazil and China is an
obvious example of building carbon sinks and refortifying habitats
at the same time. Cloud seeding has been used since the 1970s and
could help ameliorate today's droughts. Coating fresh ice with white
sand to reflect more light so it can strengthen rather than melt is
another less invasive treatment for the wounded Earth. Of course,
each of these approaches has its own challenges and limitations,
ones that will require us to commit resources other than simply
flying diplomats to summits to sign empty promises. Let us not
pretend there is any other way to reduce the widening climate
injustice.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.wired.com/story/geoengineering-is-the-only-solution-to-our-climate-calamities/">https://www.wired.com/story/geoengineering-is-the-only-solution-to-our-climate-calamities/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[some data]<br>
<b>WORLDHEALTHRANKINGS</b><b><br>
</b><b>LIVE LONGER LIVE BETTER</b><b><br>
</b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/fires/by-country/">https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/fires/by-country/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
["a return to denial is not helpful"]<br>
<b>Trump's plan for managing forests won't save us in a more
flammable world, experts say</b><br>
The president proposes "forest management." Scientists say no amount
of managing will stop a new breed of wildfires.<br>
By Sarah Kaplan and Juliet Eilperin<br>
September 16, 2020<br>
In California, smoke plumes spun into twisters made out of soot and
flame, prompting the first-ever "fire tornado" warning. In Oregon,
blazes advanced on towns so rapidly that even fire crews had to
flee. Never in memory have so many fires burned so much land in so
many places over such a short span of time. The smoke has enveloped
the whole continent, dimming the sun in cities 2,000 miles away.<br>
<br>
"Science knows very well what is going on here," said Monica Turner,
fire ecologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Extreme
climate change has arrived in America, and it burns.<br>
<br>
Fire experts say the nation needs new strategies to cope with the
escalating threat.<br>
<br>
But the country's top fire science budget has been slashed - cuts
that began in the last year of the Obama administration and have
only accelerated under President Trump, who has twice tried
unsuccessfully to eliminate it altogether. States, which are
struggling under the coronavirus-induced economic crisis, have run
short of funds for the scientific work.<br>
President Trump has repeatedly said "forest management" - harvesting
trees to reduce fuel for fires - is the key to preventing wildfires.
But scientists agree no amount of "forest management" can stop
disasters in an ever-more-flammable world.<br>
<br>
"There are no climate change denialists on the fire lines," said Tim
Ingalsbee, a veteran wildland firefighter who serves as executive
director of the group Firefighters United for Safety, Ethics, and
Ecology. "Now we really need science to play a role in the
solutions."...<br>
- - <br>
The link between fires and climate is basic physics: Human
greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet. Higher temperatures
trap more water in the atmosphere, drying out vegetation and making
it more likely to ignite. In the American West -- where temperatures
are already as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than in the
preindustrial era -- landscapes are burning in fundamentally
different and more destructive ways...<br>
- -<br>
This was predicted. The first National Climate Assessment, published
in 2000, forecast that the West would experience increased risk of
fire as a result of global warming and called on states to prepare.
A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found
that human-caused climate change doubled the amount of forest burned
between 1984 and 2015. California's own climate assessment in 2018
predicted that higher temperatures would cause 2.5 million acres to
burn annually -- the models just did not expect it to happen until
2050.<br>
<br>
The scale of this year's fires have horrified even those who saw
them coming. As of Tuesday, 3.2 million acres in California have
been incinerated -- almost double the previous record of 1.9
million, set in 2018. In Oregon, blazes have erupted in parts of the
wet Western Cascades that have not burned in years. On a single day
last week, red-flag warnings on fire weather stretched along the
entire West Coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to Canada.<br>
<br>
"It really is a shocking escalation," said Daniel Swain, a climate
scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles.
"Characterizing it as a phase change, a new era of megafire -- as
dramatic as that sounds, ultimately I think it's accurate."...<br>
--<br>
But as the toll of wildfire increases, the federal government is
supporting less research into the issue. The budget for the Joint
Fire Science Program, which is funded through the Interior and
Agriculture departments and produces research on the best practices
for fire prevention and management, has steadily declined since the
mid-2000s. In a 2017 budget deal approved before the current
administration, the program's funding was reduced from $12.9 million
to $8.9 million. In 2018 and 2019, the White House sought to
eliminate it entirely. The program now receives $6 million a year.<br>
<br>
"It is very much a mismatch between the increased scale, scope and
urgency of the problem and the amount of resources we're putting
into understanding what's coming, what it means and how to adapt,"
Turner said...<br>
- -<br>
There is one other way all Americans can help reduce risk of
wildfire, Turner said: by stopping greenhouse gas emissions. Last
winter, United Nations scientists reported that the world would need
to start cutting emissions 7.6 percent annually to limit warming to
a "tolerable" 1.5 degrees Celsius. At that point, fires would likely
be even worse than they are now -- but not nearly as bad as they
might otherwise become.<br>
<br>
Emissions were rising about 1.5 percent a year before the
coronavirus pandemic. This year, even after massive societal
shutdowns and a global economic crisis, the world is unlikely to
meet the 7.6 percent target.<br>
<br>
"We have to get it under control," Turner said. "If we continue to
raise the planet's temperature, this is going to be our tragic
reality."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/16/fires-climate-change/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/16/fires-climate-change/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Andy Revkin jam session music show- video]<br>
<b>Sunday Song Swap With Oxford Climate Prof and Accordionist Ray
Pierrehumbert</b><br>
Streamed live on Sep 20, 2020<br>
Andrew Revkin<br>
The regular Sunday Earth Institute song and story swap aims to
revive spirits and build community even as the world struggles to
overcome a pandemic.<br>
<br>
A special guest this week is Raymond Pierrehumbert, Halley Professor
of Physics at Oxford and one of the world's leading planetary and
climate scientists. Of course, he's not on the show to talk physics.
He'll be playing accordion and ukulele. (He' contributed the
accordion on Andy Revkin's 2013 recording of Between the River and
the Rails: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://j.mp/riverandrails">http://j.mp/riverandrails</a><br>
<br>
Contact the host, Andy Revkin of the Earth Institute, if you have a
song or story to share. @revkin on Twitter or
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:andrew.revkin@columbia.edu">andrew.revkin@columbia.edu</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm8JUXBxKjI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm8JUXBxKjI</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Ooops, this was from last year, still applies]<br>
<b>1 Billion Acres At Risk For Catastrophic Wildfires, U.S. Forest
Service Warns</b><br>
Written by Kirk Siegler Jun. 05, 2019 <br>
The chief of the U.S. Forest Service is warning that a billion acres
of land across America are at risk of catastrophic wildfires like
last fall's deadly Camp Fire that destroyed most of Paradise,
Calif...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/npr/npr-story/729720938">https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/npr/npr-story/729720938</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
September 22, 2009 </b></font><br>
<p>President Obama addresses the UN on climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/QvDg4BMTGE8">http://youtu.be/QvDg4BMTGE8</a> <br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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