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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>September 29, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[more fires]<br>
<b>Wine country is on fire: 11,000 acres burned, homes lost,
thousands flee</b><br>
Sep 28, 2020<br>
Los Angeles Times<br>
Another series of wildfires stormed California's wine country
overnight as flames destroyed numerous homes and other buildings in
Napa and Sonoma counties and forced thousands to flee.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkpfFuiZkcs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkpfFuiZkcs</a><br>
- -<br>
<b>Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms-simple.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms-simple.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[before the debate review these Important results]<br>
[The Report ]<br>
<b>Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics</b><br>
A new study surveying public opinion on proposed environmental
policies reveals that Americans are widely supportive of climate
mitigation measures.<br>
<br>
Report (20-12) by Jon Krosnick and Bo MacInnis -- Sep. 23, 2020<br>
<br>
<b>Introduction</b><br>
In Climate Insights 2020: Overall Trends, we showed that huge
majorities of Americans believe that Earth has been warming, that
the warming has been caused by human activity, that warming poses a
significant threat to the nation and the world--especially to future
generations--and that governments, businesses, and individuals
should be taking steps to address it.<br>
<br>
In this report, we turn to specific government opportunities to
reduce future greenhouse gas emissions, often referred to as climate
change mitigation. Policies to accomplish this goal fall into
multiple categories, including:<br>
<blockquote><b>1. Consumer incentive</b>s that reward people for
taking steps that reduce their use of fossil fuels and, by
extension, reduce their carbon footprint<br>
<b>2. Carbon pricing policies</b> that require emitters to pay for
their carbon emissions, such as a carbon tax (which would require
carbon emitters to pay a tax for each ton of carbon they emit), or
a <b>cap-and-trade</b> program (which would require businesses to
have a permit for each ton of carbon they emit)<br>
<b>3. Regulations</b> that require manufacturers to increase
energy efficiency of their products, including automobiles,
appliances, and buildings<br>
<b>4. Tax incentives</b> that encourage manufacturers to increase
the energy efficiency of their products<br>
</blockquote>
The 2020 survey asked Americans about their opinions on a wide array
of such policies, which allows us to not only assess current
attitudes, but also to track changes in those attitudes over the
past two decades through comparisons with responses to comparable
questions asked in earlier national surveys. As we outlined in our
first report, one might imagine that the current public health,
economic, and social crises facing the nation may have caused
Americans to be less willing to support government climate
mitigation efforts in favor of addressing more immediate problems.
As we shall see, that did not happen.<br>
<br>
We also took this opportunity to explore whether people evaluate
government policies based on what they believe is best for the
nation as a whole (called "sociotropic" reasoning) or whether each
individual evaluates policies based on their own personal financial
interests (called "pocketbook" reasoning). As we explored in
previous installments in this report series, a great deal of
economic theory has portrayed people as rational actors pursuing
their own personal material self-interests (Kiewiet 1983; Kinder and
Kiewiet 1981; Lewis-Beck and Paldam 2000). Rational choice theory
suggests that people will support a public policy if they perceive
that it will yield greater economic benefits to them than the costs
incurred (Downs 1957). However, research has shown that a person's
material self-interests have little impact when forming opinions
about government policies. Instead, people form their opinions based
much more on "sociotropic" reasoning (Lau and Heldman 2009; Sears
and Funk 1990; Sears et al. 1980).<br>
<br>
To test these competing hypotheses, we explore the extent to which
support for mitigation policies is driven by beliefs that unchecked
global warming will either hurt (or help) the respondent personally
or hurt (or help) society as a whole, and whether efforts to
mitigate global warming will have unintentional side-effects that
will either hurt (or help) the respondent economically or hurt (or
help) society economically...<br>
- -<br>
Read the full report -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/climateinsights2020-policies-and-politics/">https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/climateinsights2020-policies-and-politics/</a>
<p> </p>
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[video must see]<br>
[<b>60 Minutes Overtime</b> ]<br>
<b>Sir David Attenborough to 60 Minutes on climate change: "A crime
has been committed"</b><br>
Eighteen years after declining to take a hard stance in his first
profile on 60 Minutes, Sir David Attenborough warns about the
dangers of climate change.<br>
"He's extremely worried"<br>
Sir David Attenborough was 28-years-old when he convinced his bosses
at the BBC to let him travel the world and document his
explorations. He has perpetually been on the road ever since. <br>
<br>
For nearly 70 years, the knighted Briton and his teams of filmmakers
have traveled to some of the most remote places on earth to explore
the natural world.<br>
<br>
"I want [people] to know…not the human story particularly, but the
story of life on this earth, how it how it developed," Attenborough
told 60 Minutes.<br>
Now 94, Attenborough has witnessed the evolution of the natural
world more closely than most.<br>
<br>
Attenborough studied geology and zoology before embarking on a
career in television and film. Ever since, he has been an animal
advocate, conservationist, and serves as an ambassador for the World
Wildlife Fund. <br>
<br>
For much of his career, Attenborough chose not to preach
conservation in his films. In 2002, the naturalist told 60 Minutes
correspondent Ed Bradley in an interview that his role was to show
an "objective depiction of the natural world."<br>
"The most important job is persuading people that the natural world
is complex and wonderful and one of the most precious things we
have," Attenborough said to 60 Minutes in 2002. "And if you're going
to do that, then every time you do it, you show the facts, you end
up by saying, 'And it's all disappearing and it's all your fault,'
people will stop viewing."<br>
<br>
Until recently, Attenborough's films shied away from making sweeping
declarations about the planet's changing climate. <br>
<br>
That stance has changed. <br>
<br>
Attenborough's latest project includes a book and film both titled,
"A Life on Our Planet." The documentary premiers on Netflix on
October 4. He calls this latest project his "witness statement," and
on 60 Minutes told correspondent Anderson Cooper "a crime has been
committed" against the planet.<br>
<br>
"We're both in broadcasting, if you're going be telling something as
though it's true, you better be sure it's true," Attenborough said
to Cooper. "So I didn't say anything much about the world being in
ecological peril until I was absolutely sure that what I was talking
about was correct."<br>
Attenborough no longer minces words nor leaves his viewers wondering
where he stands on the issue of climate change. In the new film, he
laments Earth's decline and states emphatically, "Our planet is
headed for disaster." <br>
<br>
Despite his stark warning about the planet's peril, Attenborough
told Cooper it is not too late to salvage it, if countries work
together and societies alter their behavior. The nonagenarian
remains hopeful for the future. <br>
<br>
"There's a huge movement around the world of people from all
nations, young people who can see what is happening to the world,
and demanding that their government should take action,"
Attenborough said. "And that's the best hope that I have."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sir-david-attenborough-60-minutes-2020-09-27/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sir-david-attenborough-60-minutes-2020-09-27/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[better version of sound]<br>
<b>Anthony Leiserowitz talks climate communication</b><br>
Sep 9, 2020<br>
John Cook<br>
An interview with Tony Leiserowitz from Yale University about
climate communication, scientific consensus, the gateway belief
model, & much much more. A very high quality, interesting,
& informative interview!<br>
<br>
This interview was recorded in Paris back in 2015 - we were both
at the COP21 climate summit. While the conversation is 5 years
old, much of the principles are timeless. Indeed, subsequent
research has strengthened the gateway belief model <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://sks.to/cocm">http://sks.to/cocm</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVITFMHjg5Y">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVITFMHjg5Y</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Stable oceans means higher saline]<br>
<b>'Very Bad News': Scientists Behind New Study Warn Warming Oceans
'Contributing to Climate Breakdown'</b><br>
New findings on human-caused global heating and ocean stability have
"profound and troubling implications," says co-author Michael Mann.<br>
by Jessica Corbett, staff writer<br>
In a rare calm moment during a historically active Atlantic
hurricane season, an international team of climate scientists on
Monday published a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change
showing that human-caused global heating is making the world's
oceans more "stable"--which, as co-author Michael Mann explained, is
"very bad news."<br>
<br>
Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State,
detailed researchers' findings about ocean stratification in a piece
for Newsweek. Using "more comprehensive data and a more
sophisticated method for estimating stratification changes" than
past studies, the scientists found that "oceans are not only
becoming more stable, but are doing so faster than was previously
thought."...<br>
- - <br>
Ending his piece on a similar note, Mann wrote that "in short, it's
unwise to be complacent given the accumulating scientific evidence
that climate change and its impacts may well be in the upper end of
the range that climate scientists currently project. There is
ever-greater urgency when it comes to acting on climate. But there
is agency as well. Our actions make a difference--something to keep
in mind as we head into a presidential election whose climate
implications are monumental."<br>
<br>
Mann is on the mounting list of climate experts and advocates
supporting Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in his effort
to oust President Donald Trump--who has, at various points, ignored
and exacerbated the climate emergency. Earlier this month, the
editors of Scientific American as well as the political action arms
of both 350 and Friends of the Earth also endorsed the former vice
president.<br>
<br>
"The stakes are clear and present," Tamara Toles O'Laughlin from 350
Action said of the general election, for which early voting is
already underway in some states. "The planet cannot withstand four
more years of Trump."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/09/28/very-bad-news-scientists-behind-new-study-warn-warming-oceans-contributing-climate">https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/09/28/very-bad-news-scientists-behind-new-study-warn-warming-oceans-contributing-climate</a><br>
<p>- - - <br>
</p>
[the latest science]<br>
<b>New studies confirm weakening of the Gulf Stream circulation
(AMOC)</b><br>
Filed under: Climate Science -- stefan @ 17 September 2020<br>
Many of the earlier predictions of climate research have now become
reality. The world is getting warmer, sea levels are rising faster
and faster, and more frequent heat waves, extreme rainfall,
devastating wildfires and more severe tropical storms are affecting
many millions of people. Now there is growing evidence that another
climate forecast is already coming true: the Gulf Stream system in
the Atlantic is apparently weakening, with consequences for Europe
too.<br>
<br>
The gigantic overturning circulation of the Atlantic water (dubbed
AMOC) moves almost 20 million cubic meters of water per second -
almost a hundred times the Amazon flow. Warm surface water flows to
the north and returns to the south as a cold deep current. This
means an enormous heat transport - more than a million gigawatts,
almost one hundred times the energy consumption of mankind. This
heat is released into the air in the northern Atlantic and has a
lasting effect on our climate.<br>
<br>
But since the 1980s, climate researchers have been warning of a
weakening or even a cessation of this flow as a result of global
warming. In 1987, the famous US oceanographer Wally Broecker titled
an article in the scientific journal Nature "Unpleasant surprises in
the greenhouse". Even Hollywood took up the subject in 2004 in the
film "The Day After Tomorrow" by the German director Roland
Emmerich. However, there were no measurement data that could prove
an ongoing slowdown.<br>
<br>
Only since 2004 has there been continuous monitoring at 26N in the
Atlantic (RAPID project). Although the data show a weakening of the
current system, the measurement series is still too short to
distinguish a possible climate trend from decadal variability. For
the longer-term development of the Gulf Stream system, we must
therefore rely on indirect evidence.<br>
<br>
A long-term AMOC weakening should lead to a cooling in the northern
Atlantic. Such a regional cooling in the middle of global warming
has been predicted by climate models for a long time. And indeed,
the evaluation of data on sea surface temperatures shows that the
northern Atlantic is the only region of the world that has escaped
global warming and has even cooled down since the 19th century (see
graph). In addition, one can see a particularly strong warming off
the North American coast, which according to model simulations is
part of the characteristic "fingerprint" of a weakening of the Gulf
Stream circulation...<br>
- - <br>
In addition to these oceanographic measurements, a number of studies
with sediment data indicate that the Gulf Stream circulation is now
weaker than it has been for at least a millennium.<br>
<br>
These current changes also affect Europe, because the 'cold blob'
out in the Atlantic also influences the weather. It sounds
paradoxical when you think of the shock frost scenario of the
Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow: but British
researchers found that in summer the jet stream in the atmosphere
likes to take a route around the south side of the cold blob - this
then brings warm winds from the southwest into Europe, leading to
heat waves there, as in the summer of 2015. Another study found a
decrease in summer precipitation in northern Europe and stronger
winter storms. What exactly the further consequences will be is the
subject of current research.<br>
<br>
However, the latest generation (CMIP6) of climate models shows one
thing: if we continue to heat up our planet, the AMOC will weaken
further - by 34 to 45% by 2100. This could bring us dangerously
close to the tipping point at which the flow becomes unstable.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/09/new-studies-confirm-weakening-of-the-gulf-stream-circulation-amoc/#more-23249">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/09/new-studies-confirm-weakening-of-the-gulf-stream-circulation-amoc/#more-23249</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
[Source material from <b>Nature Climate Change</b>]<br>
<b>Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic
salinity pile-up</b><br>
Chenyu Zhu & Zhengyu Liu <br>
Nature Climate Change (2020)<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
is an active component of the Earth's climate system1 and its
response to global warming is of critical importance to society.
Climate models have shown an AMOC slowdown under anthropogenic
warming since the industrial revolution2,3,4, but this slowdown
has been difficult to detect in the short observational
record5,6,7,8,9,10 because of substantial interdecadal climate
variability. This has led to the indirect detection of the
slowdown from longer-term fingerprints11,12,13,14 such as the
subpolar North Atlantic 'warming hole'11. However, these
fingerprints, which exhibit some uncertainties15, are all local
indicators of AMOC slowdown around the subpolar North Atlantic.
Here we show observational and modelling evidence of a remote
indicator of AMOC slowdown outside the North Atlantic. Under
global warming, the weakening AMOC reduces the salinity divergence
and then leads to a 'salinity pile-up' remotely in the South
Atlantic. This evidence is consistent with the AMOC slowdown under
anthropogenic warming and, furthermore, suggests that this
weakening has likely occurred all the way into the South Atlantic.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0897-7">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0897-7</a><br>
<p><br>
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<p> </p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
September 29, 2000 </b></font><br>
<p>In an apparent effort to convince moderate voters not to support
Democratic opponent Al Gore, GOP presidential candidate George W.
Bush delivers an energy speech implying that he will pursue
efforts to reduce carbon pollution as president. Bush would go on
to abandon this implied promise during his tenure in the White
House.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3">http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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