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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>October 2, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[Bigger than biggest]<br>
<b>Firefighters fear a mega-inferno is on the way</b><br>
Ashley Shaffer<br>
USA TODAY<br>
California fires could merge into a 1M-acre mega-inferno<br>
Crews grappling with two fierce blazes in Northern California kept a
wary eye Thursday on potentially turbulent winds that could whip up
the two wildfires. Officials fear the Zogg Fire, which has burned
through 55,303 acres near Redding and left four people dead, could
merge with a third blaze, the August Complex, into a mega-inferno of
more than 1 million acres. "It's likely the Zogg Fire may make its
way into the August Complex, (which) remains the largest wildfire in
terms of total acreage burned in California's history," Gov. Gavin
Newsom warned. The August Complex has incinerated 949,672 acres.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/10/01/wildfires-chrissy-teigen-coronavirus-aid-california-covid-19-thursdays-news/5881234002/">https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/10/01/wildfires-chrissy-teigen-coronavirus-aid-california-covid-19-thursdays-news/5881234002/</a><br>
- -<br>
[Other West]<br>
<b>Coloradans forced to evacuate as wildfire in Wyoming grows</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.outtherecolorado.com/news/coloradans-forced-to-evacuate-as-wildfire-in-wyoming-grows/article_506b08e4-0411-11eb-9c30-c7384070a6db.html">https://www.outtherecolorado.com/news/coloradans-forced-to-evacuate-as-wildfire-in-wyoming-grows/article_506b08e4-0411-11eb-9c30-c7384070a6db.html</a><br>
- -<br>
<b>Glass Fire: Napa Valley crews brace for possible weather-fueled
surge<br>
</b>Firefighters are "extremely concerned" the Glass Fire will
spread to more homes and wineries.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/01/glass-fire-napa-valley-crews-brace-for-possible-weather-fueled-surge/">https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/01/glass-fire-napa-valley-crews-brace-for-possible-weather-fueled-surge/</a><br>
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[Faster changes]<br>
<b>New Study Shows a Vicious Circle of Climate Change Building on
Thickening Layers of Warm Ocean Water</b><br>
Global warming is deepening blankets of warmer water that alter
ocean currents, hinder absorption of carbon, intensify storms and
disrupt biological cycles.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28092020/ocean-stratification-climate-change">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28092020/ocean-stratification-climate-change</a><br>
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[Ocean cause and effect]<b><br>
</b> <b>British Columbia's Seamounts Are Becoming Uninhabitable</b><br>
The deep ocean, where changes usually manifest over millennia, is
losing oxygen at an unprecedented rate.<br>
by Judith Lavoie - October 1, 2020 <br>
In the northeast Pacific, the upper 3,000 meters of water has lost
15 percent of its oxygen over the past 60 years, and the top 500
meters is simultaneously becoming more acidic at an unprecedented
rate, a study by Fisheries and Oceans Canada scientists has found.<br>
<br>
The changes, which the scientists say are a consequence of climate
change, threaten the survival of the black coral, brittle stars,
rockfish, and other species that live around the towering seamounts
that lie off the British Columbia coast. The scientists say the
seamount ecosystem--regarded as an oasis of life in the deep
ocean--will be irreversibly changed, and there will likely be local
extinctions.<br>
<br>
The research shows the previously studied large oxygen minimum zone
between 480 and 1,700 meters has some of the lowest oxygen levels in
the global ocean, and it is expanding. The 15 percent loss of oxygen
puts the northeast Pacific way above the two percent loss seen in
oceans globally over the past 70 years.<br>
<br>
The result is that the deep-sea ecosystem in the northeast Pacific
is facing a double whammy: from the decrease in oxygen as the
warming surface water absorbs less oxygen; and from ocean
acidification, which affects the ability of marine organisms to
maintain shells and skeletons.<br>
<br>
Biogeochemical oceanographer Debby Ianson, one of the study's three
authors, says that because carbon dioxide concentrations in the
atmosphere are already high from burning fossil fuels, absorption of
carbon dioxide by the ocean will continue for at least a decade even
if carbon emissions are somehow stopped. "The train has left the
station," she says.<br>
<br>
Many species around the seamounts, such as cold-water corals and
rougheye rockfish, can live for centuries. But life for many of
these creatures is already changing. For example, the changes in
water chemistry mean that the depth at which the water becomes
acidic enough to dissolve calcium carbonate skeletons is rising by
two meters a year.<br>
<br>
The discovery stems from data collected by the Line P oceanographic
monitoring program, which has been testing the water from the
southern tip of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, far offshore
into the Alaska Gyre since 1956. Line P is one of the
longest-running deep-sea time series in the world, allowing
scientists to see trends in ocean chemistry.<br>
<br>
Ianson says she and her colleagues found it shocking that there were
clear indications of climate change at such depths.<br>
<br>
"We're talking about deep water--between 500 meters and three
kilometers. It is old water that has not been at the surface for a
long time and, way down there, we weren't expecting it to experience
any climate change," Ianson says.<br>
<br>
Study coauthor and physical oceanographer Tetjana Ross also says she
didn't expect to see such pronounced chemical changes in the deep
water because much of the water around the seamounts was last at the
surface 1,000 years ago, before humans started releasing large
amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This is also the last
time the water was able to exchange oxygen with the atmosphere.<br>
<br>
But now that organisms such as corals are being affected, says study
coauthor and marine biologist Cherisse Du Preez, side effects are
inevitable.<br>
<br>
"The corals can be meters tall, complex with beautiful branches that
create homes for shrimp, octopus, nudibranchs," she says. "Without
those corals, those animals no longer have a home. They no longer
have shelters, or nurseries, or places where feeding is easier.
Their entire lifestyles are just going to fall apart," she says.<br>
<br>
The study predicts that within 40 years the environment will no
longer be hospitable, and within 100 years many animals will undergo
local extinction.<br>
<br>
"While there might be winners and losers in the short run, if it
keeps going at this rate, I think the ultimate ending is going to be
losses for all the life down there," Du Preez says.<br>
<br>
Scientists in Canada have discovered 62 seamounts off the British
Columbia coast, most of which were discovered in just the last three
years. They host some of the most bizarre creatures on the planet.
Cherisse Du Preez, with Fisheries and Oceans Canada, takes us on a
deep dive of these incredible oases of life in the vast ocean blue.
Video by Katrina Pyne...<br>
- -<br>
Scientists have only recently started paying attention to the unique
ecosystems of the seamounts off British Columbia, and the study
suggests we are witnessing the demise of that ecosystem, she says.<br>
<br>
"One of the key points of that paper is, yes, we have to do
something about the emissions. But, we have to live with what we
have got, so we have to think about proactive management methods
that diminish the other threats," Tunnicliffe says.<br>
<br>
In their paper, the scientists emphasize the need to mitigate human
impacts such as fishing and undersea mining on the seamount
ecosystem by designating the area as a marine protected area. More
than 133,000 square kilometers of the region has already been
identified by the Canadian government as an area of interest for a
potential protected area.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/british-columbias-seamounts-are-becoming-uninhabitable/">https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/british-columbias-seamounts-are-becoming-uninhabitable/</a><br>
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[Yale Program on Climate Change Communication]<br>
<b>Reading Environmental Literature Can Persuade on Climate</b><br>
We are pleased to announce the publication of a new research article
<b>"Environmental Literature as Persuasion: An Experimental Test of
the Effects of Reading Climate Fiction" </b>in the journal
Environmental Communication.<br>
<br>
In this study, we tested the persuasive effects of reading short
stories of climate fiction. Climate fiction ("cli-fi") is a growing
literary trend. These works range from dramatic tales set in
imagined apocalyptic futures to realistic portrayals of characters
responding to climate change in the present day.<br>
<br>
Much empirical social science in the field of "narrative persuasion"
has demonstrated that storytelling is an effective way to shift
beliefs and attitudes regarding science and environmental issues. In
part, this is because narratives promote a sense of identification
with the story characters and immersion into the world of the story.<br>
<br>
Despite the rising popularity of climate fiction and prior research
on narrative persuasion, research had not yet tested the persuasive
effects of climate fiction. Our study provides the first
experimental investigation of these effects -- merging the fields of
literary Ecocriticism with empirical social science.<br>
<br>
In this study, participants in the Concerned and Cautious audience
segments of Global Warming's Six Americas were randomly assigned to
read one of three short stories: "The Tamarisk Hunter" (a dystopian
tale by Paolo Bacigalupi of climate catastrophe, set in a
drought-ridden American Southwest), "In-Flight Entertainment" (a
realist tale by Helen Simpson of climate denial in a conversation
between airplane passengers). Participants in the control condition
read "Good People" (a short story by David Foster Wallace, unrelated
to climate change).<br>
<br>
We found that reading "The Tamarisk Hunter" or "In-Flight
Entertainment" had significant positive effects on readers' climate
change beliefs and attitudes, including that global warming will
cause more natural disasters and poverty, as well as levels of
worry, perceived importance, and the perceptions that global warming
will harm readers personally, as well as future generations.
Consistent with prior research on narrative persuasion, we found
that many of these effects are mediated by feelings of
transportation by the story and identification with the characters.<br>
<br>
After one month, we recontacted the study participants in order to
assess whether these persuasive effects remained over time. We found
that the effect of reading these stories was no longer statistically
significant, suggesting that the persuasive effects faded over time.<br>
<br>
Together, these findings highlight the importance of storytelling
about climate change in general and of climate fiction in
particular. However, we also underscore the importance of repeated
exposure to multiple messages from different sources, because the
persuasive effects of any one message can be transient.<br>
<br>
The full article is available here to those with a subscription to
Environmental Communication. If you would like to request a copy,
please send an email to <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:climatechange@yale.edu">climatechange@yale.edu</a> with the subject
line: Climate Fiction Persuasion paper.<br>
<br>
We hope you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. And as always,
thank you for your interest and support.<br>
<br>
On behalf of my co-authors at Yale University and Yale-NUS College:
Matthew Schneider-Mayerson, Abel Gustafson, Matthew Goldberg, Seth
Rosenthal, and Matthew Ballew.<br>
<br>
We hope you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. And as always,
thank you for your interest and suppor<br>
Anthony Leiserowitz, Ph.D.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/reading-environmental-literature-can-persuade-on-climate/">https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/reading-environmental-literature-can-persuade-on-climate/</a>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
[Fiction as influencer]<br>
<b>Environmental Literature as Persuasion: An Experimental Test of
the Effects of Reading Climate Fiction</b><br>
Matthew Schneider-Mayerson ,Abel Gustafson, Anthony Leiserowitz,...<br>
<b>ABSTRACT</b><br>
<blockquote>Literary works of fiction about climate change are
becoming more common and more popular among critics and readers.
While much research has indicated the persuasive effectiveness of
narrative storytelling in general, empirical research has not yet
tested the effects of reading climate fiction. This paper reports
results from the first experimental study to test the immediate
and delayed impacts of climate fiction on readers' beliefs and
attitudes about climate change. We found that reading climate
fiction had small but significant positive effects on several
important beliefs and attitudes about global warming – observed
immediately after participants read the stories. However, these
effects diminished to statistical nonsignificance after a
one-month interval. In this paper, we review the relevant
literature, present the design and results of this experiment, and
discuss implications for future research and practice.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2020.1814377">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2020.1814377</a><br>
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[video produced 7 years ago - prediction]<br>
<b>8 ways the world could suddenly end: Stephen Petranek at
TEDxMidwest</b><br>
TEDx Talks - Mar 11, 2014<br>
Unintentional "Dark Futurist", Stephen Petranek, re-visits the
subject matter of his original eleven year old TED Talk and offers
the audience an extraordinarily sobering look at the eight critical
issues that threaten human life on Earth.<br>
<blockquote>[one of many solutions: <b>Watch closer, regulate more</b>]<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEfpxiUIZPs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEfpxiUIZPs</a><br>
- -<br>
[Updated 2019]<br>
<b>Stephen Petranek 10 ways the world could end</b><br>
Nov 22, 2019<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFB41ur5yp0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFB41ur5yp0</a><br>
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[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
October 2, 2008 </b></font><br>
Vice-presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin spar over
climate and energy issues in their lone debate, moderated by Gwen
Ifill.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/5qhox5P_jCg">http://youtu.be/5qhox5P_jCg</a><br>
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