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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>October 8, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[the Guardian]<br>
<b>A second Trump term would be 'game over' for the climate, says
top scientist</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-climate-change-michael-mann-interview">https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-climate-change-michael-mann-interview</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[NYTimes analysis]<br>
<b>For Trump, a Pattern of Denial, From the Virus to Russia to
Climate Change</b><br>
The president's preoccupation with demonstrating strength or
rearranging facts to reinforce his worldview has led him, time and
again, to downplay, ignore or mock serious issues...<br>
- -<br>
Mr. Trump's own Pentagon declared in a report last year that a
warming climate was a major "national security issue" that could
spur future instability around the globe, but to Mr. Trump it
remains a theory, something to be stricken from government reports
and explained away when the West erupted in wildfires...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/us/politics/trump-virus-denial.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/us/politics/trump-virus-denial.html</a><br>
- -<br>
[from Oct 2nd]<br>
<b>What Made This a Record Fire Season? It Started With Lightning</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/02/us/fire-california-oregon-start.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/02/us/fire-california-oregon-start.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p>[Yale study]<br>
<b>Climate Change in the Minds of </b><b>U.S. News Audiences</b><br>
</p>
<b>This report is an analysis of public opinion about climate change
among the regular U.S. audience</b><br>
(American adults who frequently watch, read, or listen to the
content) of each of six major U.S.<br>
news sources: CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, NPR, the Weather Channel, and
the national nightly<br>
network news (on CBS, ABC, or NBC). The findings in this report are
based on data from three<br>
nationally representative surveys conducted by the Yale Program on
Climate Change<br>
Communication and the George Mason University<br>
Executive Summary<br>
<b>Desire for More Information</b><br>
<blockquote>- Large majorities in most news audiences are interested
in news stories about a wide range<br>
of global warming topics (p. 11-13).<br>
- However, majorities in all news audiences feel they are not very
well informed about<br>
global warming (p. 10). Fewer than 20% in any news audience feel
"very well informed."<br>
- Majorities in the CNN, NPR, MSNBC, and the nightly network news
audiences think the<br>
media should be doing more to address global warming, as do about
half of those in the<br>
Weather Channel (51%) audience. In the Fox News audience, only one
in three viewers<br>
(34%) think the media should be doing more (p. 10). <br>
</blockquote>
<b>Global Warming's Six Americas</b><br>
<blockquote>- Large majorities of the NPR, MSNBC, and CNN audiences
are either Alarmed or<br>
Concerned (p. 4) about global warming.<br>
- The Concerned and the Cautious make up the largest portion of
the Fox News audience<br>
(43% in total), and fewer (36% in total) are Doubtful or
Dismissive (p. 4).<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Beliefs and Attitudes About Global Warming</b><br>
<blockquote>- In all news audiences except that of Fox News, large
majorities think global warming is<br>
happening and human-caused (p. 5).<br>
- About half of the Fox News audience (53%) think global warming
is happening (p. 5).<br>
- Only one in four in the Fox News audience (25%) think global
warming is not happening,<br>
but many (48%) think it is caused by natural changes in the
environment (rather than<br>
human activities) (p. 5).<br>
- Most of the audience of each news source underestimates the
scientific consensus on<br>
human-caused global warming. Members of the NPR audience are most
likely to<br>
understand the extent of the scientific consensus, but even among
this audience those<br>
who do are in the minority.<br>
- In most news audiences, large majorities (80%+ for CNN, MSNBC,
and NPR) are<br>
worried about global warming (p. 6).<br>
- Majorities of the MSNBC, CNN, and NPR audiences think global
warming is already<br>
harming people in the U.S. (p. 7).<br>
</blockquote>
<b>The 2020 Presidential Election</b><br>
<blockquote>- Majorities in all audiences say global warming or
protecting the environment will be<br>
important to their vote for president (p. 9).<br>
</blockquote>
full report -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Climate-Change-in-the-Minds-of-US-News-Audiences.pdf">https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Climate-Change-in-the-Minds-of-US-News-Audiences.pdf</a>
<p> </p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[follow the money!]<br>
<b>A clean energy company now has a market cap rivaling ExxonMobil</b><br>
NextEra Energy briefly overtook ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco last
week<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/06/a-clean-energy-company-now-has-a-market-cap-rivaling-exxonmobil/">https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/06/a-clean-energy-company-now-has-a-market-cap-rivaling-exxonmobil/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Uh oh...]<br>
<b>Vicious Cycle: Climate Change Spreading Infectious Diseases,
Which Contribute to Climate Change</b><br>
Sicker livestock may increase climate woes: More parasites means
higher emissions of potent greenhouse gas.<br>
<br>
Climate change is affecting the spread and severity of infectious
diseases around the world -- and infectious diseases may in turn be
contributing to climate change, according to a new paper in Trends
in Ecology & Evolution.<br>
<br>
The research, led by Vanessa Ezenwa, a professor of ecology at the
University of Georgia, and funded by the Living Earth Collaborative
at Washington University in St. Louis, describes how parasites can
cause animals to produce more methane, a powerful greenhouse gas.<br>
<br>
"There is evidence that climate change, and warming temperatures in
particular, are impacting some infectious diseases and increasing
their prevalence," Ezenwa said. "If that's happening for livestock
diseases, and simultaneously higher prevalence is triggering
increased methane release, you could end up with what we call a
vicious cycle."<br>
<br>
Methane is a greenhouse gas with an effect on global warming 28-36
times more potent than carbon dioxide. In the past 10 years,
atmospheric methane concentrations have increased rapidly, with
about half of the increase attributed to emissions from livestock.<br>
<br>
Here, the researchers -- a team of ecologists, veterinarians, and
One Health experts -- formed a working group led by Amanda Koltz,
senior scientist in biology in Arts & Sciences at Washington
University, to study the effects of parasites on ecosystems --
including their impacts on climate.<br>
<br>
"Infectious diseases impact all animals, but our understanding of
how their effects extend to the broader ecosystem is still limited,"
Koltz said. "For example, parasite-host interactions can shape host
physiology, behavior, and population dynamics -- some of those
impacts are likely to have widespread, cascading effects on
ecosystem-level processes."<br>
<br>
The review focused on ruminant livestock, a group that includes
cows, sheep, and goats. These animals are known to be major
contributors to global methane emissions and host to many parasites
and pathogens as well. They are also an important part of the global
food supply...<br>
- - <br>
The authors calculated that infectious diseases in ruminant
livestock could lead to a sizable increase in methane released into
the atmosphere...<br>
- -<br>
The team's findings highlight the need to take infectious diseases
into account when modeling future climate scenarios to ensure that
they don't underestimate methane emissions.<br>
<br>
"The vicious cycle between climate impacts on disease and disease
impacts on climate is striking," said co-author Aimee Classen, a
professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and director of the
University of Michigan Biological Station. "Our study highlights
that scientists need to incorporate both animals and disease into
the experiments and models used to predict future carbon emissions."<br>
Reference: 7 October 2020, Trends in Ecology & Evolution.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scitechdaily.com/vicious-cycle-climate-change-spreading-infectious-diseases-which-contribute-to-climate-change/">https://scitechdaily.com/vicious-cycle-climate-change-spreading-infectious-diseases-which-contribute-to-climate-change/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[it figures]<br>
<b>What caused California's rolling blackouts? Climate change and
poor planning</b><br>
California suffered its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years
because energy planners didn't take climate change into account and
didn't line up the right power sources to keep the lights on after
sundown, according to a damning self-evaluation released Tuesday by
three state agencies.<br>
<br>
The rotating power outages didn't last long and affected only a
small fraction of the state's 40 million people. Just under half a
million homes and businesses lost power for as little as 15 minutes
and as long as two and a half hours on Aug. 14, with another 321,000
utility customers going dark for anywhere from eight to 90 minutes
the following evening.<br>
<br>
But officials should have been prepared for the climate-driven
extreme heat that caused electricity demand to soar and briefly left
the nation's largest state without sufficient power supplies, the
state's Energy Commission, Independent System Operator and Public
Utilities Commission acknowledged in a preliminary "root cause
analysis" demanded by Gov. Gavin Newsom.<br>
<br>
The immediate cause of the power shortages was the heat storm, which
saw California experience four of its five hottest August days in
the last 35 years, the analysis found. Temperature records were
shattered across the American West, limiting the Golden State's
ability to make up for its energy deficit by importing electrons
from other states...<br>
- - <br>
Officials have consistently said that intermittent power sources
such as solar panels and wind turbines didn't cause the rolling
blackouts. But gas-burning power plants that can fire up when the
sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing have been shutting down
in recent years, and California has largely failed to replace them
with cleaner alternatives such as lithium-ion batteries...<br>
- - <br>
The root cause analysis also faults market mechanisms put in place
by the Independent System Operator, a nonprofit corporation that
oversees the power grid for most of the state. A program known as
convergence bidding, in particular, is meant to help keep
electricity prices steady but instead "masked tight supply
conditions" during the August heat wave, the analysis concluded...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2020-10-06/california-rolling-blackouts-climate-change-poor-planning">https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2020-10-06/california-rolling-blackouts-climate-change-poor-planning</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the news archive of <b>People magazine</b>]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
October 8, 1979 </b></font><br>
People Magazine reports on growing concerns about a human-caused
climate crisis.<br>
<blockquote><b>CO2 Could Change Our Climate and Flood the Earth--Up
to Here</b><br>
By Michael J. Weiss Updated October 08, 1979 <br>
If Gordon MacDonald is wrong, they'll laugh, otherwise, they'll
gurgle<br>
<br>
The scenario reads like an Irwin Allen disaster movie. Early in
the 21st century, carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere
thickens ominously. The CO2 admits sunlight but prevents escape of
heat from the planet's surface, creating a situation known as the
"greenhouse effect." Average temperatures increase, from 3 to
20°F, melting ice at the poles. Oceans rise everywhere by perhaps
20 feet, inundating coastal cities. Some 25 percent of the world's
population must flee to higher ground. Food shortages follow. All
is chaos.<br>
<br>
Purveyor of this doomsday theory--the man Charlton Heston would
play in the movie--is Gordon MacDonald, 50, a geology and
environmental sciences professor at Dartmouth. Researchers have
long worried about the effects of carbon dioxide produced by
burning oil, gas and coal. MacDonald says the Carter
administration's proposal to develop synthetic fuels by converting
coal into oil and gas involves a process that will dramatically
increase the CO2 level. With synfuels, atmospheric carbon dioxide
could double by 2020, MacDonald predicts. As a result, new
temperature patterns could begin to change the weather all over
the globe by 1990.<br>
<br>
"The Adirondacks and New England might not get snow," he predicts.
"In Washington, summer highs will jump from the 90s to the 100s.
Some leafy plants like corn and sugar beets will benefit from
increased photosynthesis, but you'll see a 30- to 40-percent drop
in wheat production. That's because the latitudes suitable for
wheat will move north, where the land lacks nutrients to support
intensive agriculture."<br>
<br>
MacDonald has taken his concern to Congress as well as to the
scientific community, and he has credentials in both. At 32, he
was one of the youngest members ever elected to the National
Academy of Sciences in 1962. His resume lists 134 published
articles, plus 10 major lecture series. He has also been an
adviser to Presidents Eisenhower (on space exploration), Kennedy
(weather), Johnson (ocean pollution), Nixon (coal), Ford
(technology exchange) and Carter (national security). "Nixon,"
MacDonald remembers, "would say he had three summa cum laudes from
the Harvard class of 1950: Jim Schlesinger, Henry Kissinger and
me." (At the National Academy of Sciences in 1963 MacDonald first
ran across statistics relating climate to CO2; since the late
1950s carbon dioxide is up to 10 percent in the atmosphere, but
because the ocean is still absorbing it, no real temperature
changes have occurred.)<br>
<br>
The greenhouse theory continues to be the subject of heated
debate. Some scientists contend the oceans will never become so
saturated with CO2 that the climate is affected. Dan Dreyfus,
staff director of the Senate Energy Committee, dismisses
MacDonald's fears by more or less dismissing him. "He's a
generalist," Dreyfus says. "Carbon dioxide is not the only thing
he's interested in, and it's a very complicated geophysical
problem. I don't think anyone can definitely say what effect
increased CO2 will have on the climate." Yet in July, when
MacDonald and other scientists reported on CO2 to the President's
Council on Environmental Quality, the council called it "an
extremely important, perhaps historic, statement."<br>
<br>
As an alternative to synthetic fuels, MacDonald suggests a mix of
solar energy, fusion, natural gas and biomass (mostly
alcohol-based fuels made from converting trees, sugarcane and
other plants). He prefers natural gas, which produces little
carbon dioxide. He's lobbying for it while on leave from Dartmouth
to work as chief scientist at the MITRE Corporation, a
goverment-funded Washington think tank.<br>
<br>
MacDonald grew up in Mexico City, the son of a British mining
executive and an American embassy clerk. He became a U.S. citizen
in 1955 and taught at UCLA and California (Santa Barbara) before
moving to Dartmouth in 1972. His first marriage ended in divorce.
He has three children by his second wife, who died of cancer; he
has a son with his third wife.<br>
<br>
With CO2, MacDonald is of course presenting the worst case
scenario with great flair. "He isn't the usual ass-covering
bureaucrat," an Energy Committee staffer marveled after MacDonald
testified against the Carter synfuel proposal. "He provided quite
a show." MacDonald realizes that if he is wrong, his warnings will
sound ridiculous. If not, world catastrophe will result--"not 200
years from now but within our lifetime."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html">http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html</a><br>
<br>
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