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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>October 12, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[Papal Ted Talking]<br>
<b>Pope in TED talk: Earth cannot be squeezed 'like an orange'</b><br>
October 10, 2020<br>
VATICAN CITY (AP) -- Pope Francis on Saturday issued an urgent call
to action to defend the planet and help the poor in his second TED
talk.<br>
<br>
The pontiff, known for his affinity for social media and technology,
said in a videotaped message to a TED conference on climate change
that the coronavirus pandemic had put a focus on the
social-environmental challenge facing the globe.<br>
<br>
"Science tells us, every day with more precision, that it is
necessary to act with urgency -- I am not exaggerating, science tell
us this -- if we want to have the hope of avoiding radical changes
in the climate and catastrophes," Francis said, looking directly in
the camera as he looked up from his prepared remarks.<br>
He set as a goal for the next decade constructing a world capable of
responding to current generations, "without compromising the
possibilities of the future generations." He framed his call with
references to his 2015 encyclical on climate change, "Laudato Si,"
(Be Praised) and the more recent "Fratelli tutti" (Brothers All) on
the failure of market capitalism.<br>
<br>
Francis laid out three paths of action: promoting education about
the environment "based on scientific data and an ethical approach,"
assuring drinking water and an adequate food supply through
sustainable agriculture and promoting the transformation from fossil
fuels to clean energy sources.<br>
<br>
"We have just a few years -- scientists calculate roughly fewer than
30 -- to drastically reduce the emissions of gas and the greenhouse
effect in the atmosphere," the pope said, adding that the transition
needs to take into account the impact on the poor, local populations
and those who work in the energy sector.<br>
<br>
He called on investors to exclude companies that do not taking into
account the environment, as have many faith-based organizations
already have.<br>
<br>
"In fact, the earth must be taken care of, cultivated and protected;
we cannot continue to squeeze it like an orange. And we can say
this, taking care of the Earth is a human right," Francis said.<br>
<br>
The six-hour Countdown Global Launch is TED's first-ever free
conference, featuring as hosts such figures as Jane Fonda, Don
Cheadle and Al Gore, with speakers including Prince William of
Britain and Ursula von der Leyen, a leading European Union official.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-science-climate-climate-change-environment-496543b1d18d49f072520bdc35011a54">https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-science-climate-climate-change-environment-496543b1d18d49f072520bdc35011a54</a>
<p>- -</p>
[Pope speaking with transcript]<br>
<b>His Holiness Pope Francis | Our moral imperative to act on
climate change -- and 3 steps we can take</b><br>
<p>The global climate crisis will require us to transform the way we
act, says His Holiness Pope Francis. Delivering a visionary TED
Talk from Vatican City, the spiritual leader proposes three
courses of action to address the world's growing environmental
problems and economic inequalities, illustrating how all of us can
work together, across faiths and societies, to protect the Earth
and promote the dignity of everyone. "The future is built today,"
he says. "And it is not built in isolation, but rather in
community and in harmony."</p>
<p>A single individual is enough for hope to exist, and that
individual can be you, says His Holiness Pope Francis in this
searing TED Talk delivered directly from Vatican City. In a
hopeful message to people of all faiths, to those who have power
as well as those who don't, the spiritual leader provides
illuminating commentary on the world as we currently find it and
calls for equality, solidarity and tenderness to prevail. "Let us
help each other, all together, to remember that the 'other' is not
a statistic, or a number," he says. "We all need each other."<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ted.com/talks/his_holiness_pope_francis_why_the_only_future_worth_building_includes_everyone/transcript?language=en">https://www.ted.com/talks/his_holiness_pope_francis_why_the_only_future_worth_building_includes_everyone/transcript?language=en</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[NYTimes]<br>
<b>Florida Sees Signals of a Climate-Driven Housing Crisis</b><br>
Home sales in areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise began falling
around 2013, researchers found. Now, prices are following a similar
downward path.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/climate/home-sales-florida.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/climate/home-sales-florida.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[educated conjecture from Yale Climate Connections]<br>
<b>Multiple extreme climate events can combine to produce
catastrophic damages</b><br>
Concurrent extreme climate events can amount to a challenging
'two-fer' or even a 'three-fer' in terms of adverse impacts.<br>
By Gary Yohe, Henry Jacoby, and Richard Richels | October 9, 2020<br>
<br>
Wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington are this year's
poster children for extreme natural disasters. Hardly a day passed
in August and September without disturbing pictures of
heart-wrenching damages and loss of life. Even worse, this summer's
hurricanes became major flooding events as the storms themselves
stalled over populated areas along the Gulf coast.<br>
<br>
That does not mean, of course, that all see climate change as
playing a significant role in determining the strength, frequency,
or behavior of either of these climate risks.<br>
What it does mean is that the scientific community must explain more
clearly why the recent spate of extraordinary natural disasters can
be understood only with reference both to impacts of climate change
as we have come to know them, and now something more complex:
concurrent impacts amplifying themselves in real time<br>
Figure 2 of our September 18th essay in this series showed how
global warming can push aspects of the environment toward greater
extremes and higher damages. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/0920_Fig2_increase_in_average.png">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/0920_Fig2_increase_in_average.png</a><br>
More specifically, it teaches us how trends that increase damages
can, over time, make high-damage futures more likely while reducing
the chances of more benign possibilities.<br>
<br>
Recent events have taught us more than that, though. They have
demonstrated a troubling propensity for several climate change
impacts to show up at the same place at the same time, feeding on
each other, combining forces and leading to still greater extremes.
To be clear, they do not necessarily arrive at the same time and/or
leave at the same time; but they do spend a significant amount of
time together compounding their extreme impacts on a specific
location.<br>
<br>
The California fires are a perfect example of this phenomenon. Only
three of the state's largest 20 fires (in terms of acres burned) had
burned prior to 2000, but nine of the biggest 10 have occurred since
2012. That is, extremes are becoming more likely. And they are
growing larger too. In 2017, 9,270 fires burned a record 1.5 million
acres. The Mendocino Complex fire the next year became the "largest
wildfire in California history." And soon came 2020.<br>
<br>
A new largest fire in California history, the Complex fire, got
started in August 2020. Soon came the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th largest
in history. By October 3, these five conflagrations had combined
with nearly 8,000 other more "ordinary" fires to kill 31 people and
burn more than four-million acres, and, on that day, all five of
those fires were still burning.<br>
<br>
Why is this happening? Wildfire is a natural part of the forest
environment. But by the early 1950s, these fires were causing
sufficient damage with sufficient frequency to provoke efforts to
reduce what was seen as the main cause, human behavior. "Only you
can prevent forest fires" was the mantra of the times.<br>
<br>
Only a few decades later, however, changes in the climate had begun
to contribute to increased fire risk. More intense droughts played a
role in some years, as did extra strong heat waves. Also, milder
winter temperatures were fostering the expansion of a major forest
pest, the Pine Bark Beetle, which was killing large areas of forest
and thereby further increasing the supply of ready fuel.<br>
<br>
Of course, part of the increased fire risk is still the result of
human actions. Damage to life and property has increased markedly as
more people have moved into vulnerable forested areas, and more
people in the woods means more inadvertent blazes. Changes in forest
management contributed, too, because fire suppression policies on
federal land reduced the brush-clearing value of deliberately set
control blazes (sometimes known as "good fires").<br>
<br>
But these non-climate causes of increased fire danger have not
increased so much over the decades to account for the devastation of
the last few years. There is more to explain, and it comes in
understanding how, in responding to rising global temperatures,
nature can produce "2-fer" or even "3-fer" combinations of
influences on local environmental conditions.<br>
<br>
The western U.S. is, unfortunately, a clear example of this effect.
Many of the fires were caused by literally thousands of dry
lightning strikes. These strikes aren't the result solely of climate
change, but it is clear that they fed into a witches' brew of
conditions that are all linked to global warming:<br>
<blockquote>1. the lightning strikes and other points of ignition in
the midst of a record drought;<br>
2. record heat for days on end in July and August;<br>
3. infestations of bark beetles producing large stands of dead
trees; and<br>
4. decades of gradual warming extending the western fire season by
some 75 days.<br>
</blockquote>
Taken together, these contemporaneous impacts make it clear that the
issue is not just what sparks the fires. The larger problem is the
context in which they start, and how quickly they spread once
started, especially when several intensifying influences are also
present.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/1020_4_day_precip_events.png">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/1020_4_day_precip_events.png</a><br>
Figure 1. Heavy precipitation events in the contiguous United
States. Averaged over four days and over 50,000 square kilometers
through 2019. Hurricane Harvey produced the most precipitation by
far, while Florence ranked seventh (and 2nd among tropical
cyclones). Other categories include fronts associated with an
extratropical cyclone (FRT), extratropical cyclones not colocated
with fronts (ETC), fronts with an associated atmospheric river (AR
FRT), and subtropical lows (STL). (Source: North Carolina Institute
for Climate Studies)<br>
A similar story can also be told about damages from tropical storms.
As shown in Figure 1, hurricanes Harvey and Florence dropped
historic amounts of rain after making landfall and then stalling
over Houston and New Orleans, respectively. This summer, hurricanes
Laura and Beta followed suit and dumped extreme rainfall totals and
caused substantial damage from storm surge.<br>
<br>
Here is another example of a climate change induced compound effect
- a "3-fer":<br>
<blockquote>1. Near record-warm ocean temperatures allowed many
tropical depressions and non-tropical low pressure systems to
develop into dangerous hurricanes;<br>
2. A decrease in the summer temperature difference between the
Arctic and the tropics that is strongly suspected to have weakened
atmospheric steering currents and created more slowly moving
storms.<br>
3. Sea-level rise, one of the most obvious results of decades of
rising temperatures, compounded risks posed by storm surge.<br>
</blockquote>
The expanding consequences of compound fire and flood events are
also getting harder to control and survive. For example, many of the
worst fires and hurricanes have exploded so quickly and spread so
erratically that human evacuations have become "moment's notice"
emergencies. Just as with residents of the southeastern and Gulf
coasts, residents from California and Oregon must retreat from
harm's way as quickly as possible, and hope that conditions will
soon change back to something more benign.<br>
<br>
Over time, the weather eventually becomes more favorable.
Unfortunately, the climate is not going to change back to what used
to be, certainly not on a human time scale. So, when they have a
chance, perhaps vulnerable residents should just try to move as far
from harm's way as possible.<br>
<br>
That might be a good idea for the short-run, but lest we forget:
None of us can move to a different planet.<br>
<br>
Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and
Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in
Connecticut. He served as convening lead author for multiple
chapters and the Synthesis Report for the IPCC from 1990 through
2014 and was vice-chair of the Third U.S. National Climate
Assessment.<br>
<br>
Henry Jacoby is the William F. Pounds Professor of Management,
Emeritus, in the MIT Sloan School of Management and former
co-director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of
Global Change, which is focused on the integration of the natural
and social sciences and policy analysis in application to the threat
of global climate.<br>
<br>
Richard Richels directed climate change research at the Electric
Power Research Institute (EPRI). He served as lead author for
multiple chapters of the IPCC in the areas of mitigation, impacts
and adaptation from 1992 through 2014. He also served on the
National Assessment Synthesis Team for the first U.S. National
Climate Assessment.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/multiple-extreme-climate-events-can-combine-to-produce-catastrophic-damages/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/multiple-extreme-climate-events-can-combine-to-produce-catastrophic-damages/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[wildfires in the Levant]<br>
<b>Wildfires erupt in Mount Lebanon area after heatwave hits country
- video</b><br>
Firefighters in Lebanon have been battling fierce wildfires across
the Mount Lebanon area and along the country's border with Israel.
The Lebanese Civil Defense said rising temperatures and high wind
speeds were contributing to the spread of the fires.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/LfLcdTEInLk">https://youtu.be/LfLcdTEInLk</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/oct/10/wildfires-erupt-in-mount-lebanon-area-after-heatwave-hits-country-video">https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/oct/10/wildfires-erupt-in-mount-lebanon-area-after-heatwave-hits-country-video</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[drought to deluge and back]<br>
OCTOBER 9, 2020<br>
<b>Droughts are threatening global wetlands</b><br>
by University of Adelaide<br>
<br>
University of Adelaide scientists have shown how droughts are
threatening the health of wetlands globally.<br>
<br>
Published in the journal Earth-Science Reviews, the scientists
highlight the many physical and chemical changes occurring during
droughts that lead to severe, and sometimes irreversible, drying of
wetland soils.<br>
<br>
"Wetlands around the world are incredibly important for maintaining
our planet's biodiversity and they store vast amounts of carbon that
can help fight climate change," says project leader Associate
Professor Luke Mosley, from the University's Environment Institute
and School of Biological Sciences. Globally, wetlands cover an area
greater than 12.1 million square kilometers and deliver at least
A$37.8 trillion (Int$27 trillion) in benefits per year, such as for
flood mitigation, food production, water quality improvement and
carbon storage."<br>
<br>
Wetlands can suffer "water droughts" both from the effects of a
drier climate, and also when excessive water is extracted or
diverted that would normally flow into them.<br>
<br>
The review paper describes how drought often leads to severe
cracking and compaction, acidification, loss of organic matter, and
enhanced greenhouse gas (for example methane) emissions. In some
cases droughts can lead to very long-term (>10 years) and
irreversible soil changes, with major impacts on water quality when
soils are rewet after the drought ends.<br>
"We have seen many examples of how drought in the Murray-Darling
Basin has caused major issues including acidification of soil and
water due to acid sulfate soils exposure in wetlands. This review
highlights substantial gaps in our global understanding of the
effects of drought on wet soils and how they will respond to
increasing drought," says Associate Professor Mosley, who is also
Deputy Director of the Acid Sulfate Soils Center.<br>
<br>
Effects can be different in different soil types and different
regions of the world. The spatial distribution of drought studies
shows there has been limited assessment in a large number of
regions, including south and central America, Africa, the Middle
East, Asia and Oceania. Many of these regions are predicted to be
vulnerable to drought impacts due to climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800/2020/5f802d3c9c765.jpg">https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800/2020/5f802d3c9c765.jpg</a><br>
Dried and cracked soils in the Lower Lakes region of South Australia
during the Millennium Drought. Credit: University of Adelaide<br>
Lead author Dr. Erinne Stirling, from Zhejiang University (China)
and the University of Adelaide, says one of the most pressing
findings from this review is that there are huge swaths of the world
where there is no readily available published research on
drought-affected wet soils.<br>
<br>
And secondly, she says, there is effectively no applied research
into water management outcomes for wetlands and wetland soils.<br>
<br>
"At a global level, wet soils are highly vulnerable to the effects
of climate change and need to be protected given the very high
environmental and socio-economic values they support. It is our
sincere hope that the information in this review contributes to
protecting these valuable ecosystems," says Dr. Stirling.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2020-10-droughts-threatening-global-wetlands.html">https://phys.org/news/2020-10-droughts-threatening-global-wetlands.html</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, Dismissive]<br>
<b>Global Warming's Six Americas</b><br>
Our prior research has found that Americans can be categorized into
six distinct groups--Global Warming's Six Americas--based on their
beliefs and attitudes about climate change.<br>
<br>
The Alarmed are the most engaged, are very worried about climate
change, and strongly support actions to address it. The Concerned
think global warming is a significant threat, but prioritize it less
and are less motivated to take action. The Cautious are aware of the
warming but are uncertain about its causes and are not worried about
it. The Disengaged are largely unaware of global warming, while the
Doubtful doubt it is happening or human-caused and perceive it as a
low risk. The Dismissive do not believe the planet is warming or
that it is human-caused. They oppose most climate policies.<br>
- <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/global-warmings-six-americas/">https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/global-warmings-six-americas/</a><br>
- -<br>
<b>Want to know which of the Six Americas you are in? <br>
Take the short Six Americas Quiz!</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/sassy/">http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/sassy/</a><br>
The Alarmed are fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of
climate change and are already taking individual, consumer, and
political action to address it. The Concerned are also convinced
that global warming is happening and a serious problem, but have not
yet engaged the issue personally.<br>
Three other Americas - the Cautious, the Disengaged, and the
Doubtful - represent different stages of understanding and
acceptance of the problem, and none are actively involved. The final
America - the Dismissive are very sure it is not happening and are
actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.<br>
The six audiences were first identified using a large nationally
representative survey of American adults conducted in the fall of
2008. The survey questionnaire included extensive, in-depth measures
of the public's climate change beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions,
motivations, values, policy preferences, behaviors, and underlying
barriers to action. The Six Americas are distinguishable on all
these dimensions, and display very different levels of engagement
with the issue.<br>
The Six Americas Over Time<br>
There has been a significant change in the distribution of the Six
Americas over the past five years. The Alarmed segment has more than
doubled in size (from 11% to 26% of the U.S. adult population)
between 2015 and 2020, while the Dismissive segment has decreased by
nearly half (from 12% to 7%). Overall, Americans are becoming more
worried about global warming, more engaged with the issue, and more
supportive of climate solutions. <br>
<br>
A look back at how the Six Americas have changed over the past
decade (see animation) shows that the largest group, the Concerned,
grew quickly from 2013 to 2015, but has declined slightly since
then. The Alarmed, in contrast, experienced more rapid growth during
the past five years than any of the other groups. Meanwhile, the
Cautious, Doubtful, and Dismissive have been shrinking in recent
years...<br>
llhttp://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/sassy/<br>
- - -<br>
Animated GIF <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sa_2020_NewColor_v2.gif">http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sa_2020_NewColor_v2.gif</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Hurricane data]<br>
<b>Delta is record-setting 10th named storm to make U.S. landfall in
a season</b><br>
Torrential rains and hurricane-force gusts mark fourth named storm
to make Louisiana landfall this season. Quiet Atlantic period
ahead.By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Saturday, October 10, 2020...<br>
- - <br>
The top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show
nothing popping up over the next week, and the Madden Julian
Oscillation (MJO) - a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity
near the equator that moves around the globe in 30 to 60 days - is
weak, and is not expected to be in a phase that will enhance
Atlantic activity during the coming week. However, with ocean
temperatures still much above average in the Caribbean and in waters
surrounding Florida and the Bahamas (Figure 4), and in a season with
a track record for spitting out record numbers of named storms, at
least one or more likely will form in October. The next name on the
Atlantic list of storms is Epsilon.<br>
<br>
If the tropics remain quiet, as expected, our next post in this
series will be on Wednesday, October 14.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/delta-is-record-setting-10th-named-storm-to-make-u-s-landfall-in-a-season/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/delta-is-record-setting-10th-named-storm-to-make-u-s-landfall-in-a-season/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[New position for Jeff Masters]<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><b>Masters is now at Yale Climate
Connections</b><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/section/eye-on-the-storm/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/section/eye-on-the-storm/</a></div>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/delta-is-record-setting-10th-named-storm-to-make-u-s-landfall-in-a-season/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/delta-is-record-setting-10th-named-storm-to-make-u-s-landfall-in-a-season/</a>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">- - <br>
</div>
<br>
[Jeff Masters "retires". Now charts a category 7 hurricane]<br>
<b>Hurricane Dorian Was Worthy of a Category 6 Rating</b><br>
The Category-1-to-5 Saffir-Simpson scale for rating hurricanes is
inadequate<br>
<br>
By Jeff Masters on October 3, 2019 (Scientific American Opinion)<br>
Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes are rare. Only 7% of the 243
hurricanes observed since accurate satellite measurements began in
1983 have reached that catastrophic intensity. And it is truly
exceptional to see a category 5 hurricane as strong as Hurricane
Dorian, which powered ashore on Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas on
September 1, 2019, with sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts up to
220 mph. Winds of this strength would make Dorian worthy of a
category 6 rating, if it existed. (For those of you unfamiliar with
me, know that there is already a Category 6--it's the name of a blog
I co-author with Bob Henson over at Weather Underground,
specializing in daily updates of global tropical cyclone activity).<br>
<br>
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which is used to rank
hurricane winds on a scale of one to five, stops at category 5:
sustained 1-minute average wind speeds of at least 157 mph (70 m/s).
If we were to add a category 6 to the scale, we must consider that
the scale is not quite linear. Winds for a category 2 hurricane span
a range of just 15 mph, for example, but winds for a category 4
storm span a range of 27 mph. Regardless of this non-linearity, a
one-category increase in intensity on the scale results in
approximately four times more wind damage, according to the National
Hurricane Center.<br>
<br>
If we graph the scale (Figure 1 below), it is apparent that a
category 6 should probably start at winds of 180 - 185 mph. A
category 7 hurricane would have winds of at least 210 - 215 mph. By
this logic, Hurricane Dorian would rate as a category 6 hurricane.
Only one hurricane in world history would rank as a category 7:
Hurricane Patricia of 2015, which peaked with 215-mph sustained
winds off the Pacific coast of Mexico.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://static.scientificamerican.com/blogs/assets/Image/DORIAN6-1.png">https://static.scientificamerican.com/blogs/assets/Image/DORIAN6-1.png</a><br>
If one uses 185-mph winds as the threshold for category 6, only five
Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history would qualify. If we lower
the threshold to 180 mph, there are a total of eight that would rate
as a category 6:<br>
<blockquote>- 190 mph: Allen 1980<br>
- 185 mph: Dorian 2019, Labor Day 1935, Gilbert 1988, Wilma 2005<br>
- 180 mph: Mitch 1998, Rita 2005, Irma 2017<br>
</blockquote>
It is truly rare for a hurricane of this hypothetical category 6
intensity to make landfall. Dorian's 185-mph winds over Great Abaco
and Grand Bahama islands tied it with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane
in the Florida Keys as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane
on record. Expanding the definition of category 6 to include winds
of 180 mph or higher would add just one additional Atlantic
landfalling category 6 hurricane: Hurricane Irma of 2017, which made
landfall on Barbuda, St. Martin, and the British Virgin Islands with
maximum sustained winds of 180 mph.<br>
<br>
Dorian caused catastrophic damage, thanks in great part to its very
slow motion of less than 5 mph over The Bahamas for the 27 hours it
spent at category 5 strength. This slow motion and extreme intensity
allowed Dorian to subject The Bahamas to the most fierce and
prolonged battering by an Atlantic hurricane of any populated place
in recorded history. Preliminary damage estimates in The Bahamas are
$7 billion--over 50% of their $12 billion GDP. The death toll as of
this writing is 56, with approximately 600 people still missing.<br>
<br>
SHOULD THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A CATEGORY 6?<br>
Unfortunately, global warming is making ultra-intense hurricanes
like Dorian more likely to occur (a subject I will take up in a
future post). Thus, it makes sense from a climate change
communication point of view to expand the Saffir-Simpson scale to
include a category 6--and category 7--to call attention to this new
breed of ultra-intense catastrophic hurricanes that will likely grow
increasingly common in the coming decades. Since there would be so
few of these category 6 and 7 hurricanes, though, it would be
difficult to do any kind of meaningful statistical study of how they
might be changing with the changing climate.<br>
<br>
Any move to expand the Saffir-Simpson scale would have to come from
the National Hurricane Center (NHC), though, and there is little
support for such a move from the experts there. From a public
safety/warning standpoint, NHC experts I've heard from believe that
including a category 6 would do little good, since a category 5
hurricane is already considered catastrophic. In the continental
U.S., for example, there have only ever been four category 5
hurricanes to make landfall (in 1935, 1969, 1992, and 2018). News
that a category 6 storm was heading towards them would probably not
motivate people to take action to protect lives and property any
more than if a category 5 storm was coming.<br>
<br>
SHOULD THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BE REPLACED?<br>
Some hurricane experts believe that the Saffir-Simpson scale should
be scrapped entirely. The original scale, introduced in 1971,
included both wind speeds and typical storm surge for each category.
Over time, it became apparent that the magnitude of the storm surge
threat often did not correlate well with a hurricane's
Saffir-Simpson category. For this reason, NHC removed the storm
surge values in 2010, resulting in a wind-only scale.<br>
<br>
A big problem remains: most of the loss of life in hurricanes is
from water--storm surge and freshwater flooding--not from wind. We
need to come up with a system that alerts people in a concise way of
the magnitude of the threat to life and property due to winds, storm
surge, and inland flooding, and not just the magnitude of the winds.<br>
<br>
With this in mind, NHC made storm surge watches and warnings
operational during the 2017 hurricane season. However, these storm
surge advisories do not give quantitative measures of storm surge or
its potential damage. A better solution might be the introduction of
a storm surge scale. One such scale, named the Kuykendall scale or K
scale, was proposed in 2018 by Penn State scientists Amanda Walker
and David Titley. The logarithmic basis of the scale, which runs
from zero to ten, makes communication of the scale's meaning
straightforward: every integer increase in K leads to a tenfold
increase in per capita damage losses. RMS.com has another way to
quantify storm surge damage potential, using Integrated Kinetic
Energy (IKE), that is also promising.<br>
<br>
But this still leaves us without a good way to communicate the
inland flooding threat from a slow-moving hurricane that dumps
catastrophic amounts of rainfall. Unfortunately, this threat is
growing, since the forward speed of tropical cyclones (which
includes all hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions)
has decreased globally by about 10% since 1949, according to a 2018
paper in the journal Nature by NOAA hurricane scientist Dr. Jim
Kossin. As a result of their slower forward motion, tropical
cyclones are now more likely to drop heavier rains, increasing their
flood risk. Heavy rains are also increasing due to the extra amount
of moisture that evaporates into the air due to global warming.
category 4 Hurricane Harvey in Texas/Louisiana in 2017 ($128 billion
in damage) and category 1 Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas in
2018 ($24 billion in damage) were both examples of slow-moving
storms whose fresh-water flood risk was not adequately represented
by their Saffir-Simpson rating. So, perhaps a new scale for inland
flood risk is needed.<br>
<br>
Local National Weather Service offices already provide detailed,
color-coded maps that show the relative threat levels from four
different hurricane hazards: winds, storm surge, flooding rains, and
tornadoes. But having three separate scales for the risk from wind,
storm surge, and rainfall might be too complicated for many people
to digest. Some nations in Europe have a simple system of yellow,
orange and red alerts that convey the magnitude of storm threat;
perhaps that should be used for hurricanes. That may be too simple,
but we need something different than the current system.<br>
<br>
ABOUT THE AUTHOR<br>
Jeff Masters worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane
Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5
Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a safer
passion--a 1997 Ph.D. in air pollution meteorology from the
University of Michigan. In 1995, he co-founded the Weather
Underground, and served as its chief meteorologist until the company
was sold to the Weather Company in 2012. Since 2005, his Wunderblog
(now called Category 6) <i>[has just been shutdown by IBM] </i>has
been one of the Internet's most popular sources of extreme weather
and climate change information, and he is one of the most widely
quoted experts in the field. He can be reached at
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:weatherman.masters@gmail.com">weatherman.masters@gmail.com</a>. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/hurricane-dorian-was-worthy-of-a-category-6-rating/">https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/hurricane-dorian-was-worthy-of-a-category-6-rating/</a><br>
- - <br>
[Changes to weather information sources]<br>
<b>Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters leaving company</b><br>
By Kimberly Miller<br>
Updated Oct 4, 2019 <br>
<br>
<b>Jeff Masters is leaving Weather Underground, the company he
co-founded nearly a quarter century ago.</b><br>
<br>
Jeff Masters, a co-founder of the popular Weather Underground
forecasting operation and website, is leaving the company to write
for Scientific American.<br>
<br>
Masters planted the seeds for Weather Underground as a doctoral
candidate in meteorology at the University of Michigan.<br>
<br>
It became an incorporated company in 1995 and has since gained a
worldwide following including devoted weather geeks who tie their
backyard weather stations to the site, increasing the weather data
available to the public.<br>
<br>
Masters announced his departure this week on his Category 6 blog
with Weather Underground. He said he will continue to write for the
blog until the end of the month.<br>
"This year's hurricane season will be my final one with
wunderground.com.," Masters wrote. "After co-founding the company 24
years ago and writing over 3000 blog posts during a 14-year writing
career, I am parting ways with Weather Underground. At the end of
October I will be leaving IBM, which has owned wunderground.com
since 2016."<br>
<br>
Masters said he will miss the community he helped create, but
leaving is also a "relief" as writing daily about the weather and
climate change is a "burn-out job - particularly during the heat of
an intense hurricane season."<br>
<br>
Bob Henson, a meteorologist and writer for Weather Underground, will
continue writing for the Category 6 blog.<br>
"Working with Jeff on Category 6 over the last five years has been
one of the great privileges and joys of my career," Henson said in a
comment on the blog. "I can't imagine a greater collaborator than
Jeff, and I've learned a phenomenal amount about hurricanes from him
(as we all have)."<br>
<br>
Masters raised important questions during the recent spat of busy
hurricane seasons, including whether there should be a Category 6
hurricane after 2015′s Hurricane Patricia reached wind speeds of 214
mph. He revisits the idea in an Oct. 3 column for Scientific
American...<br>
In addition to writing for Scientific American, Masters said he
would like to write a fiction novel called "Eye of the Superstorm."<br>
<br>
Masters flew as a hurricane hunter flight meteorologist for NOAA's
Aircraft Operations Center for several years, but left in 1990 after
nearly getting killed flying into Hurricane Hugo.<br>
<br>
"Jeff is one of the pioneers of the weather blog format. His
writings have informed a generation of scientists, students, and
citizens," said Marshall Shepherd, a University of Georgia
atmospheric sciences professor and former president of the American
Meteorological Society. "His voice is critical so I am pleased that
he will be around and I know my colleague Bob Henson, an outstanding
meteorologist and writer in his own right, will carry the Weather
Underground brand forward."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Kmiller@pbpost.com">Kmiller@pbpost.com</a><br>
@Kmillerweather<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[ethical plea]<br>
Opinion<br>
<b>Three Rockefellers Say Banks Must Stop Financing Fossil Fuels</b><br>
JPMorgan Chase and other big banks should use their lending power to
force cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.<br>
By Daniel Growald, Peter Gill Case and Valerie Rockefeller<br>
The writers are fifth-generation members of the Rockefeller family.<br>
- - <br>
On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase made an announcement that appeared to
align its activities with the Paris Climate Agreement without
actually committing to curtail its lending activities to the fossil
fuel sector, its major lever for change.<br>
<br>
The bank's plan to "establish intermediate emission targets for
2030" in its loan portfolio is a welcome gesture, and we look
forward to further details promised by the bank in the spring. Those
targets must include specific plans to end support for the expansion
of fossil fuel infrastructure and set a timeline for phasing out
support of companies that lack adequate plans to move away from
fossil fuels.<br>
<br>
Otherwise, Tuesday's announcement amounts only to deftly passing the
buck to the companies in the bank's loan book...<br>
- - <br>
Our grandfather and great-uncle David Rockefeller spent 35 years at
Chase Manhattan Bank -- a predecessor of JPMorgan Chase -- where he
was chairman, chief executive officer and the bank's largest single
shareholder. He lived his life with a belief that business success
and social responsibility go hand in hand. Like many in our
generation today, we believe that service to humanity is the bedrock
of profit.<br>
<br>
Fossil fuels have been essential to the development of the modern
world and its widespread, though unequal, prosperity. The next
generation of innovators, working in low- and zero-carbon
technologies and in high finance, will prosper from the greatest
business and technological revolution in history.<br>
<br>
Under the leadership of its current chairman and chief executive,
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase became the United States' most
profitable bank. Yet short-term profitability alone is not equal to
a transformational legacy. It is Mr. Dimon's response to fossil
fuels and the climate emergency that will determine his lasting
reputation. Unlike businessmen of 100 years ago, leaders today
cannot claim they didn't know.<br>
<br>
Daniel Growald, Peter Gill Case and Valerie Rockefeller are
co-founders and co-chairs of BankFWD.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/opinion/banks-climate-change-rockefeller.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/opinion/banks-climate-change-rockefeller.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
October 12, 2004 </b></font><br>
<p>In a sentence that speaks volumes, Wall Street Journal columnist
Brendan Miniter, discussing the October 8 debate between President
Bush and Democratic opponent John Kerry, observes:<br>
<br>
"On the one issue in the debate in which Democrats hold the
natural advantage, the environment, Mr. Kerry came out on top."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20041120230653/http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110005744">http://web.archive.org/web/20041120230653/http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110005744</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/<br>
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