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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>November 6, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[NYT says]<br>
<b>Cutting Greenhouse Gases From Food Production Is Urgent,
Scientists Say</b><br>
Efforts to limit global warming often focus on emissions from fossil
fuels, but food is crucial, too, according to new research.<br>
- -<br>
Food production results in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and
other planet-warming gases in many ways, including land clearing and
deforestation for agriculture and grazing, digestion by cattle and
other livestock, production and use of fertilizers and the
cultivation of rice in flooded paddies. Overall emissions are
equivalent to about 16 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide a year,
or about 30 percent of total global emissions.<br>
<br>
While the world tends to focus on reducing emissions from
fossil-fuel burning, the new study shows cutting emissions from food
is crucial, too, the researchers said.<br>
<br>
"Food systems are sort of the dark horse of climate change," said
Jason Hill, senior author of the paper and a professor at the
University of Minnesota.<br>
The researchers forecast how emissions would change in coming
decades as the world population grows, diets and consumption
patterns change as some countries become more affluent, and crop
yields increase. They found that food-related emissions alone would
quite likely result in the world exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius
limit in 30 to 40 years. Food emissions alone would bring the world
close to the 2-degree limit by 2100...<br>
Dr. Loken said that without changes, food emissions were expected to
double by 2050. "And the wiggle room to meet the Paris limits is so
small," he said.<br>
<br>
Dr. Hill said that the study did not consider potential shifts like
the entire world population adopting a vegan diet. "We wanted to
present the ones that were realistic goals," he said. "A plant-rich
diet is a realistic goal. We're not saying in this paper to hit
these targets we have to give up animal products. But there need to
be some dietary shifts toward the healthier diets."<br>
<br>
Dr. Clark said that he was optimistic that dietary shifts and other
changes in the food system could be made in time to have an effect
on global warming. He and others are currently working on
determining what policies and behavioral changes it may be possible
to implement.<br>
<br>
"Maybe it's a combination of nudges at grocery stores, and top-down
policies from governments," he said. "It could be very bureaucratic
or individualistic."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/climate/climate-change-food-production.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/climate/climate-change-food-production.html</a><br>
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<p><br>
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[view to the future]<br>
<b>How 2030 is the new 2100: Global Food Yields Already Dropping
from Abrupt Climate Change</b><br>
Jul 12, 2019<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
2030 is the new 2100. Climate change is ALREADY reducing global food
yields TODAY, with an average 1% annual reduction in the worlds top
ten global crops, providing 83% of food calories to humanity: top
ten food crops: barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm, rapeseed
(canola), rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane, wheat. Most reduced:
oil palm (-13.4%); increased: soybeans (+3.5%). Negatively affected
regions are Europe, South Africa, and Australia; +ve is Latin
America; mixed is Asia, North and Central America. Growing season
temperatures over all harvested areas is up 0.5 to 1.2 C since the
early 1970s. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SModhHUpcj0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SModhHUpcj0</a><br>
<p>- - </p>
[source material]<br>
<b>Climate change has likely already affected global food production</b><br>
Deepak K. Ray ,Paul C. West,Michael Clark,James S. Gerber,Alexander
V. Prishchepov,Snigdhansu Chatterjee<br>
Published: May 31, 2019https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148<br>
Abstract<br>
<blockquote>Crop yields are projected to decrease under future
climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have
already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of
crops subnationally and implications for food security remains
unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships
using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential
impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten
global crops–barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice,
sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units.
We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of
different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm)
to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly
negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally
positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and
Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average
reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in
these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries,
estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that
climate change has already affected global food production.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217148">https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217148</a><br>
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<p><br>
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[Paleo]<br>
NOVEMBER 5, 2020<br>
<b>Past is key to predicting future climate, scientists say</b><br>
by University of Arizona<br>
In a review paper published in the journal Science, a group of
climate experts make the case for including paleoclimate data in the
development of climate models. Such models are used globally to
assess the impacts of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, predict
scenarios for future climate and propose strategies for
mitigation...<br>
- -<br>
Several of the latest generation models that are being used for the
next report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or
IPCC, have a higher climate sensitivity than previous iterations,
Tierney explained.<br>
<br>
"This means that if you double carbon dioxide emissions, they
produce more global warming than their previous counterparts, so the
question is: How much confidence do we have in these very sensitive
new models?"<br>
<br>
In between IPCC reports, which typically are released every eight
years, climate models are being updated based on the latest research
data...<br>
- -<br>
"The key is CO2," Tierney said. "Whenever we see evidence of warm
climate in the geologic record, CO2 is high as well."<br>
<br>
Some models are much better than others at producing the climates
seen in the geologic record, which underscores the need to test
climate models against paleoclimates, the authors said. In
particular, past warm climates such as the Eocene highlight the role
that clouds play in contributing to warmer temperatures under
increased carbon dioxide levels.<br>
<br>
"We urge the climate community to test models on paleoclimates early
on, while the models are being developed, rather than afterwards,
which tends to be the current practice," Tierney said. "Seemingly
small things like clouds affect the Earth's energy balance in major
ways and can affect the temperatures your model produces for the
year 2100."<br>
more at -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2020-11-key-future-climate-scientists.html">https://phys.org/news/2020-11-key-future-climate-scientists.html</a><br>
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<p><br>
</p>
[from the journal Nature - 04 NOVEMBER 2020]<br>
<b>Scientists aghast as hopes for landslide Biden election victory
vanish</b><br>
With so many votes cast for Trump in US election, some researchers
conclude that they must work harder to communicate the importance of
facts, science and truth...<br>
<b>The hard truth</b><br>
For some researchers, the fact that the election has come down to
the wire is evidence that scientists simply aren't connecting with
the general population. Whatever happens, says Naomi Oreskes, a
science historian at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts,
"we have a lot of work ahead of us".<br>
<br>
Distrust of Trump within the scientific community stems from his
rejection of climate science, his rollback of numerous environmental
regulations and his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has
now killed more than 230,000 people in the United States. Nature's
own survey of its scientist readers demonstrated their condemnation
for these actions: of the approximately 580 respondents eligible to
vote, 87% said they would be doing so for Biden...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03120-8">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03120-8</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
November 6, 1990 </b></font><br>
<p>November 6, 1990: In a speech to the 2nd World Climate Conference
in Geneva, Margaret Thatcher declares, "The danger of global
warming is as yet unseen, but real enough for us to make changes
and sacrifices, so that we do not live at the expense of future
generations."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108237">http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108237</a><br>
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