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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>December 7, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[global heat destabilization]<br>
<b>A warning on climate and the risk of societal collapse</b><br>
Scientists and academics including Prof Gesa Weyhenmeyer and Prof
Will Steffen argue that we must discuss the threat of societal
disruption in order to prepare for it<br>
As scientists and scholars from around the world, we call on
policymakers to engage with the risk of disruption and even collapse
of societies. After five years failing to reduce emissions in line
with the Paris climate accord, we must now face the consequences.
While bold and fair efforts to cut emissions and naturally drawdown
carbon are essential, researchers in many areas consider societal
collapse a credible scenario this century. Different views exist on
the location, extent, timing, permanence and cause of disruptions,
but the way modern societies exploit people and nature is a common
concern.<br>
<br>
Only if policymakers begin to discuss this threat of societal
collapse might we begin to reduce its likelihood, speed, severity,
harm to the most vulnerable - and to nature.<br>
Some armed services already see collapse as an important scenario.
Surveys show many people now anticipate societal collapse. Sadly,
that is the experience of many communities in the global south.
However, it is not well reported in the media, and mostly absent
from civil society and politics. People who care about environmental
and humanitarian issues should not be discouraged from discussing
the risks of societal disruption or collapse. Ill-informed
speculations about impacts on mental health and motivation will not
support serious discussion. That risks betraying thousands of
activists whose anticipation of collapse is part of their motivation
to push for change on climate, ecology and social justice.<br>
<br>
Some of us believe that a transition to a new society may be
possible. That will involve bold action to reduce damage to the
climate, nature and society, including preparations for disruptions
to everyday life. We are united in regarding efforts to suppress
discussion of collapse as hindering the possibility of that
transition.<br>
<br>
We have experienced how emotionally challenging it is to recognise
the damage being done, along with the growing threat to our own way
of life. We also know the great sense of fellowship that can arise.
It is time to have these difficult conversations, so we can reduce
our complicity in the harm, and make the best of a turbulent future.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/06/a-warning-on-climate-and-the-risk-of-societal-collapse">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/06/a-warning-on-climate-and-the-risk-of-societal-collapse</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<p>[University of Cumbria - list of signees]<br>
</p>
Sunday, 6 December 2020<br>
<b>International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and
Collapse</b><br>
A public letter signed by over 250 scientists and scholars from 30
countries, calls on policy makers to engage more with the growing
risk of societal disruption and collapse due to damage to the
climate and environment. The letter invites focus on how to slow,
prepare for, and help those already suffering from, such
disruptions. The signatories are specialists in a range of subject
areas that relate to this challenge, who commonly believe it is time
to listen to all the scholarship on humanity's predicament.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://iflas.blogspot.com/">http://iflas.blogspot.com/</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[Postscript to letter]<br>
<b>Professor Jem Bendell of the University of Cumbria is one of the
signatories.</b> He explains:<br>
"Over 250 scientists and scholars have issued a warning to humanity
that we need to make the increasing disruption from climate change a
focus of research and policy. We come from dozens of countries and
subject disciplines and perceive a resistance by the establishment
to serious engagement in adapting to the increasing disruptions to
food, water, health, and the economy. It is time to listen to the
scholarship and try to reduce harm from societal disruption and even
collapse. I believe the growing movement for Deep Adaptation to
societal breakdown can be part of that agenda."<br>
<br>
Total number of caveats upon signing:<br>
<br>
Dr Wanchat Theeranaew: Our civilization is much more fragile than we
believe. We are now entering the change of Earth System toward a new
equilibrium. This alone will be extremely harmful to our
civilization since all of our infrastructures were constructed based
on stability.<br>
<br>
Dr Wolfgang Knorr: This is not a statement of preference for any
particular viewpoint within the broad debate of the Climate and
Ecological Emergency, but rather an expression of a wish to broaden
the debate as far as possible.<br>
<br>
Dr Gwen Fischer: Climate disruption is happening and people's lives
are unraveling.<br>
<br>
Dr Mark Charlesworth: Having made clear that societal collapse
cannot be dismissed in Charlesworth M and Okereke, C (2010) Policy
responses to rapid climate change: An epistemological critique of
dominant approaches, Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 121-129 <br>
<br>
Dr Phoebe Barnard: We can be prepared, or caught unawares.
Discussion and preparedness for a full range of possibilities is
essential, especially where partial (or even temporary) societal
collapse will widen existing inequalities.<br>
<br>
Professor Ira Allen: Failure to consciously negotiate what is, in
effect, already a staggered collapse of the various systems that
support humans' current forms of life will allow those most
concerned with profiting off of this ruination to succeed, further
immiserating the many.<br>
<br>
Professor John Adams: We can no longer afford to govern through
cognitive dissonance.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://iflas.blogspot.com/">http://iflas.blogspot.com/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[too soon, every month a record]</p>
<b>Another Month on a Warming Planet: Record-Hot November</b><br>
European scientists reported that November's global temperatures
were the highest ever, surpassing the previous record, set in 2016
and 2019...<br>
- -<br>
The Copernicus service said that so far this year, temperatures were
on par with 2016, which is the hottest year on record. Barring a
significant drop in global temperatures in December, 2020 was likely
to remain tied with 2016 or even become the warmest on record by a
small margin, the service said...<br>
- -<br>
"Something to keep in mind is that the average global temperature is
increasing at an unprecedented rate due to human influences," she
said. "That's the main factor here."<br>
<br>
"So we will continue to see these record-breaking temperatures even
when we have climate phases, like La Niña, that could bring cooler
temperatures."<br>
<br>
The Copernicus service scientists said the warm conditions in the
Arctic last month had slowed the freeze-up of ice in the Arctic
Oce4an. The extent of sea-ice coverage was the second lowest for a
November since satellites began observing the region in 1979. A
slower freeze-up could lead to thinner ice and thus more melting in
the late spring and summer.<br>
<br>
The Arctic has been extraordinarily warm for much of the year, part
of a long-term trend in which the region is warming significantly
faster than other areas of the world. The warmth contributed to
extensive wildfires in Siberia during the summer and led to the
second-lowest minimum sea-ice extent for a September, the end of the
summer melting season...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/climate/climate-change-hottest-november.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/climate/climate-change-hottest-november.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Arctic changes]<br>
<b>Increased Heat From Arctic Rivers Is Melting Sea Ice in the
Arctic Ocean and Warming the Atmosphere</b><br>
By UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS - DECEMBER 5, 2020<br>
A new study shows that increased heat from Arctic rivers is melting
sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and warming the atmosphere...<br>
<br>
According to the research, major Arctic rivers contribute
significantly more heat to the Arctic Ocean than they did in 1980.
River heat is responsible for up to 10% of the total sea ice loss
that occurred from 1980 to 2015 over the shelf region of the Arctic
Ocean.<br>
<br>
That melt is equivalent to about 120,000 square miles of 1-meter
thick ice. That is roughly 20% the size of Alaska, explained Igor
Polyakov, co-author and oceanographer at the University of Alaska
Fairbanks' International Arctic Research Center and Finnish
Meteorological Institute.<br>
<br>
Rivers have the greatest impact during spring breakup. The warming
water dumps into the ice-covered Arctic Ocean and spreads below the
ice, decaying it. Once the sea ice melts, the warm water begins
heating the atmosphere...<br>
- -<br>
As rivers heat up, more heat will flow into the Arctic Ocean,
melting more sea ice and accelerating Arctic warming.<br>
<br>
Rivers are just one of many heat sources now warming the Arctic
Ocean. The entire Arctic system is in an extremely anomalous state
as global air temperatures rise and warm Atlantic and Pacific water
enters the region, decaying sea ice even in the middle of winter.
All these components work together, causing positive feedback loops
that speed up warming in the Arctic.<br>
<br>
"It's very alarming because all these changes are accelerating,"
said Polyakov. "The rapid changes are just incredible in the last
decade or so."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scitechdaily.com/increased-heat-from-arctic-rivers-is-melting-sea-ice-in-the-arctic-ocean-and-warming-the-atmosphere/">https://scitechdaily.com/increased-heat-from-arctic-rivers-is-melting-sea-ice-in-the-arctic-ocean-and-warming-the-atmosphere/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[video lecture with cat]<br>
<b>How the Huge & Intense "Godzilla" Dust Storm of 2020 Arose
from Record Low Arctic Sea Ice: 2 parts</b><br>
Dec 5, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
<br>
We all know that 2020 is a year for the record books, at least until
we experience 2021, however most people are unaware of the record
shattering "Godzilla" dust storm in the summer. A new peer-reviewed
paper examines how this dust storm, covering the largest area in the
satellite era, and with the largest sunlight blocking capacity
(aerosol optical depth (2x thicker dust than ever before) was
generated by the Sahara Desert in Africa and crossed thousands of km
across the Atlantic Ocean to darken the skies in the Caribbean,
Latin America, the Gulf of Mexico, into the southern USA. <br>
<br>
I discuss how the Arctic Ocean sea ice was at a record low at the
time, slowing and distorting the jet stream, creating a powerful
ridge (high pressure) area just to the northwest of Africa, and a
corresponding trough (low pressure) to the southwest of the ridge,
and thus over Africa. This bimodal pressure situation acted as
meshed gears, driving dust thermally converted upwards from the
Sahara desert, entraining it into the exceptionally powerful African
Easterly Jet at about 6 km altitude. This dust was then carried
thousands of km across the Atlantic to the USA, setting a new record
for the area covered and also for the dust thickness (thus sunlight
blocking capability). Surprisingly, this dust did not suppress
tropical storms enough to stop the record breaking tropical storm
season (30 named storms, from Arthur to Iota). I think that the Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic was so far above
the threshold temperature for storm amplification (26.5 C) that the
dust cooling of the SST was insufficient to suppress the 30 storms;
who knows, without the dust maybe there would have been 35 storms?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/nsikpqVyv90">https://youtu.be/nsikpqVyv90</a> - part 1<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy1qD7bZV40">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy1qD7bZV40</a> - part 2
<p>- - </p>
[source matter from Scripts Institute of Oceanography]<br>
<b>IS ARCTIC WARMING BEHIND A MONSTER SAHARAN DUST STORM?</b><br>
A June 2020 event set a record for size of a dust mass sent across
the Atlantic<br>
Robert Monroe - Dec 01, 2020<br>
The Sahara Desert is the world's biggest source of dust and in 2020,
it broke the June record for sending the largest and thickest dust
cloud toward the Americas.<br>
Amato Evan, an atmospheric scientist at Scripps Institution of
Oceanography at UC San Diego, and colleagues have broken down the
conditions that led to what some researchers call the "Godzilla"
dust storm of 2020. <br>
<br>
The June 2020 dust storm set records in terms of its geographic size
and its aerosol optical depth - essentially a measure of its
thickness determined by the ability of satellites to see through it.
It reached an altitude of 6,000 meters (19,600 feet). In certain
locations over the Atlantic Ocean, its thickness was double what had
ever been recorded during the month of June during the history of
the satellite record, which dates back to 1995.<br>
<br>
The researchers analyzed what made it happen in a study appearing
today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.<br>
<br>
Evan, lead author Diana Francis of Khalifa University of Science and
Technology in the United Arab Emirates, and colleagues attributed
the dust storm's magnitude to conditions set up by the development
of a type of high-pressure system called a subtropical high off the
coast of the Sahara. This increased the north-south pressure
gradient over West Africa leading to record-strength, persistent
northeasterly winds. The intensification of the northeasterly winds
over the Sahara generated continuous dust emissions over several
days in the second half of June 2020.<br>
The researchers found that the subtropical high was embedded in a
circumglobal wavetrain, a chain of wind patterns that extended
around the planet, and was present in the Northern Hemisphere for
most of June 2020. This wavetrain may have been caused by record-low
Arctic sea ice extent observed in June 2020 as well. The warming of
the Arctic region is believed to be altering the course of wind
patterns in the mid-latitudes and subtropics and causing severe
weather events, though there is controversy among scientists about
this concept.<br>
<br>
"The development of the subtropical high off the African coast had a
deterministic role in both dust emissions and rapid westward
transport of the airborne dust across the tropical Atlantic," said
Francis. "The clockwise circulation associated with the high,
intensified the African Easterly Jet, a jet stream present over the
Sahara around five kilometers (3.2 miles) in altitude, which rapidly
transported the dust towards the Caribbean and southern United
States."<br>
<br>
The global travel of dust has myriad consequences, affecting
everything from weather to aircraft travel to the fertility of soil
on continents thousands of miles away from the source of the dust.
The dust provides important nutrients such as iron and other
minerals to ocean ecosystems as well. Dust is also thought to have
an influence on tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean
through its effects on surface temperatures. Dust plumes are
believed to cool the ocean surface by reflecting sunlight back to
space, which in turn reduces the amount of energy available for a
cyclone to form or intensify.<br>
<br>
"While there is a large body of evidence suggesting that increased
dust suspended over the Atlantic can reduce the numbers of tropical
cyclones there, primarily through dust-induced cooling of ocean
surface temperature, this year we observed the largest dust storm on
record, as well as one of the most active hurricane seasons on
record," said Evan. "Either 2020 is just a year where everything is
upside-down, or we really need to reevaluate our understanding of
how dust impacts that climate system."<br>
<br>
Francis and Evan are planning to investigate in future work how the
June 2020 storm affected the solar energy received in the atmosphere
and on the planet's surface, and assess its impact on the tropical
storm season of 2020.<br>
<br>
The study also touches on a controversial topic within the science
community. Though not the main focus of study, the wavetrain pattern
that set the Godzilla dust storm in motion looked very similar to
one observed in 2010 when sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was
substantially diminished, Francis' team noted.<br>
<br>
"As the Arctic sea-ice cover was rather low in June 2020, around the
lowest on record in the period of satellite observations, it may
have contributed to the observed large-scale anomaly pattern," the
study concludes. "Thus, if such patterns become more common in a
warmer world, it is plausible that these extreme dust outbreaks will
increase in frequency in the future."<br>
<br>
The anomaly pattern the study refers to is one in which Arctic winds
meander, rather than blowing in more or less a straight direction.
Sometimes the wind patterns dip far south of the Arctic, leading to
exceptionally cold events in the United States and Europe. The
meander sets off a chain of events that can alter the course of
other common wind patterns.<br>
<br>
There is controversy, though, among researchers about the effect
that a warming Arctic Ocean is having. Some argue that the sequence
is reversed, that shifting wind patterns are what warms the Arctic
rather than the other way around. Others believe that the patterns
observed during years when sea ice is diminished are still within
the range of natural variability, as opposed to change caused by
global warming.<br>
<br>
Francis will give a presentation on this study at the American
Geophysical Union 2020 Fall Meeting on Dec. 7.<br>
<br>
Co-authors of the study include Ricardo Fonseca, Narenda Nelli, and
Michael Weston of Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Juan
Cuesta of CNRS and Université Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne in
France, and Marouane Temimi of Stevens Institute of Technology in
Hoboken, N.J.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/arctic-warming-behind-monster-saharan-dust-storm">https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/arctic-warming-behind-monster-saharan-dust-storm</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[audio thoughtful conversations]<br>
<b>Deep Convection</b><b> <br>
</b><b>A Podcast About Climate, Science, and Life</b><br>
Deep Convection is a podcast featuring real conversations between
climate scientists (or sometimes those working in areas adjacent to
climate science). The goal is to capture what it is like to work in
our field at this moment in history. We talk about our lives, how we
came to do what we do, what the work means to us, and how that is
changing, or isn't - and sometimes about science. Our top priority
is to capture good conversations, but if some learning happens
that's fine too.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://deep-convection.org/about/">https://deep-convection.org/about/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://deep-convection.org/episode-archive/">https://deep-convection.org/episode-archive/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[December 7th- Pearl Harbor opinions]<br>
<b>Clark: 'Have we waited too long?' Pearl Harbor, deniers and
climate change | COMMENTARY</b><br>
By DAVID LANCE CLARK<br>
CARROLL COUNTY TIMES <br>
My father was a young high school teacher in Florida on Dec. 7,
1941. Following Pearl Harbor, he joined the Army and made it his
career, including in Army intelligence assessing future security
threats.<br>
<br>
I once asked him what he thought, on the day of the Pearl Harbor
attack, were our chances of winning the war. His answer was "not
good." He was confident in 1941 that America could build a massive
military force, and that our role as the arsenal of democracy could
prove decisive. But the key question was, "Is there enough time
left, or have we waited too long?"<br>
<br>
For people of my generation and those younger, World War II looks
like a familiar movie about a football team that storms back from a
terrible first half to win the big game. The problem is that since
we already know that the story has a good ending, we have become
dangerously oblivious to the reality that we very nearly lost that
war.<br>
<br>
And there is an important lesson in that for us today as we face
another profound threat to our world -- that of climate change.<br>
President Franklin Roosevelt had been trying desperately to get
recognition of the tremendous scale of the threats to America, and
of the need to join directly into the war against Adolf Hitler even
as he tried to buy time to build up our forces facing a possible war
with Japan.<br>
<br>
But isolationists kept hindering such actions, claiming that the
threats of Hitler or the Japanese were not clear enough, and denying
the seriousness of these threats to the United States. By the time
Pearl Harbor forced us into war, overcoming the deniers, we were at
a high risk of losing that war. And without some luck, we probably
would have.<br>
<br>
The most decisive piece of luck was Hitler's underestimation of the
Russians. Hitler was sure his surprise attack in June 1941 would
defeat Russia before the snows came and would allow Germany to turn
its full might to the western front. He misread Russia's staying
capacity.<br>
<br>
Estimates are that well over 16 million Russians died, meaning more
than 40 Russian deaths for every American one. Over two-thirds of
the German military deaths in World War II were on the eastern
front. By the time of the bold invasion of Allied forces at
Normandy, we were facing a weakened enemy that still had over half
of its forces fighting the Russians. Indeed, if Russia had collapsed
in 1941-42, the delayed U.S. entry into the war until after Pearl
Harbor would probably have been too late to be decisive, with
horrific consequences for our country and our world.<br>
<br>
This lesson about the danger of waiting too late to fight back
against a grave threat -- by denying its importance, or even its
existence -- resonates strongly for us today.<br>
<br>
Most Americans recognize the reality of climate change. However,
they don't fully understand the truly catastrophic impacts it will
have unless we make major changes now to curb greenhouse gases. The
evidence is already piling up -- record fires in the west, record
hurricanes in the south, record high yearly temperatures globally,
including 100 degrees recorded north of the Arctic Circle, and much,
much more.<br>
<br>
A key aspect is that the greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere
today will be with us for many decades to come. If we wait for the
catastrophes to be fully upon us, we will have waited too long to be
able to reverse many of the worst changes, whatever we eventually
do.<br>
<br>
The incoming Biden administration has already committed to make
fighting against climate change a top national priority. But if our
actions are to be soon enough, and powerful enough, this fight needs
to get taken out of the realm of partisan politics, and instead must
be something that we all get behind.<br>
<br>
Those who denied the threats from Nazi Germany and imperial Japan
came very close to losing our country and world as we know it. We
cannot afford to let denial of science and of the overwhelming
evidence of climate change destroy our world in the 21st century. We
are running out of time.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/carroll/opinion/cc-op-community-voices-120320-20201203-j6r3onz5cbc2ppxx5imlujdem4-story.html">https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/carroll/opinion/cc-op-community-voices-120320-20201203-j6r3onz5cbc2ppxx5imlujdem4-story.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
December 7, 1999 </b></font><br>
The New York Times reports:<br>
<blockquote>"In a concession to environmentalists, the Ford Motor
Company said today that it would pull out of the Global Climate
Coalition, a group of big manufacturers and oil and mining
companies that lobbies against restrictions on emissions of gases
linked to global warming.<br>
<br>
"Ford's decision is the latest sign of divisions within heavy
industry over how to respond to global warming. British Petroleum
and Shell pulled out of the coalition two years ago following
criticisms from environmental groups in Europe, where there has
been more public concern than in the United States. Most
scientists believe that emissions from automobiles, power plants
and other man-made sources are warming the Earth's atmosphere.<br>
<br>
"British Petroleum and Shell were so-called general, or junior,
members of the lobbying group. Ford is the first company belonging
to the board that has withdrawn, and the first American company to
leave the coalition, said Frank Maisano, a spokesman for the
coalition."<br>
</blockquote>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/1999/12/07/business/ford-announces-its-withdrawal-from-global-climate-coalition.html">http://www.nytimes.com/1999/12/07/business/ford-announces-its-withdrawal-from-global-climate-coalition.html</a></p>
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