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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>December 24, 2020</b></font></i></p>
[now 4.8 mm per year]<br>
<b>Sea-level rise from climate change could exceed the high-end
projections, scientists warn</b><br>
BY JEFF BERARDELLI<br>
DECEMBER 23, 2020 - CBS NEWS<br>
The new paper, titled "Twenty-first century sea-level rise could
exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures," takes issue
with that upper estimate, saying it is likely too low. The paper was
published by a who's who of the most well known glaciologists and
sea-level rise experts, including Martin Siegert, Richard Alley,
Eric Rignot, John Englander and Robert Corell...<br>
- -<br>
In the paper, they write: "Existing ice-sheet models are more likely
to provide reliable projections if global warming is kept below 2º
Celsius [3.6º Fahrenheit], but a world in which warming exceeds 4º
Celsius [7.2º Fahrenheit] presents a much more challenging
situation. It is quite possible that this extreme situation will
lead to reactions and feedbacks in the atmosphere-ocean-ice systems
that cannot be adequately modeled at present…" <br>
- -<br>
Another paper published in Nature this week makes a similar case,
focused on the evidence from Greenland. Employing the latest models
used to inform the next IPCC report, the authors found that in a
high-warming scenario Greenland may contribute an extra 3 inches to
sea-level rise by the end of the century, when compared to the
former version of models used by the IPCC. This extra sea-level rise
is due to an additional 2 degrees Fahrenheit of warming projected by
the new climate models in the Arctic. <br>
<br>
A big concern of Englander's for our future is the non-linear
behavior of sea-level rise. In recent years the pace of sea-level
rise has been accelerating. In the 1990s the oceans rose at about 2
millimeters per year. From 2000 to 2015 the average was 3.2
millimeters per year. But over the past few years the pace has
quickened to 4.8 millimeters per year...<br>
- -<br>
We must also remember that warming today, due to human-caused
climate change, is happening faster than it has in at least 2,000
years and possibly over 100,000 years. So scientists just don't have
a directly comparable situation to measure against — once again
highlighting our uncertain future. <br>
<br>
While scientists and scientific periodicals tend to be conservative
in their public projections of sea-level rise, scientists will often
remark that they are concerned it may be much worse. When CBS News
asked Englander what he thinks is a "realistic range" of sea-level
rise by 2100, he said, "With the current global temperature level
and rate of temperature increase I believe that we could get 5 to 10
feet before the end of this century."<br>
<br>
While this is just one expert's opinion, if sea-level rise even
comes close to those levels, the impacts would be truly dangerous
and destabilizing, dramatically reshaping nations' coastlines and
forcing hundreds of millions of people to abandon their homes.
Englander says to reduce the potential impacts, it is better to be
prepared for a worst-case scenario. <br>
<br>
"We need to begin planning and designing for that while there is
time to adapt."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-rising-sea-levels-worst-case-projections/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-rising-sea-levels-worst-case-projections/</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
[new calculations say 5 to 10 feet]<br>
<b>Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed </b><b>IPCC
projections for strong-warming futures</b><br>
Correspondence: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:m.siegert@imperial.ac.uk">m.siegert@imperial.ac.uk</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.11.002">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.11.002</a><br>
<blockquote><b>SUMMARY</b><br>
While twentieth century sea-level rise was dominated by thermal
expansion of ocean water, mass loss from<br>
glaciers and ice sheets is now a larger annual contributor. There
is uncertainty on how ice sheets will respond<br>
to further warming, however, reducing confidence in twenty-first
century sea-level projections. In 2019, to<br>
address the uncertainty, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) reported that sea-level rise<br>
from the 1950s levels would likely be within 0.61–1.10 m if
warming exceeds 4C by 2100. The IPCC acknowledged <br>
greater sea-level increases were possible through mechanisms not
fully incorporated in models used in<br>
the assessment. In this perspective, we discuss challenges faced
in projecting sea-level change and discuss<br>
why the IPCC’s sea-level range for 2100 under strong warming is
focused at the low end of possible outcomes.<br>
We argue outcomes above this range are far more probable than
below it and discuss how decision makers<br>
may benefit from reframing IPCC’s terminology to avoid
unintentionally masking worst-case scenarios.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2590-3322%2820%2930592-3">https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2590-3322%2820%2930592-3</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[another source - Nature Communications]<br>
<b>Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise
in CMIP6</b><br>
Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 6289 (2020) Cite
this article<br>
1975 Accesses<br>
176 Altmetric<br>
Metricsdetails<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice
Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence
of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs)
are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from
global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global
warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial
results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have
revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5
models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent
impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level
rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level
rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution
(15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585,
7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We
identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated
cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the
main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level
contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the
GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with
twice the global radiative forcing.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[International law discussions - video 1:33.]<br>
<b>Ecocide as an International Crime: Key Considerations</b><br>
Dec 18, 2020<br>
Stop Ecocide International<br>
Official side event of the 19th Session of the Assembly of States
Parties (ASP) to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal
Court (ICC), December 2020<br>
<br>
At the 2019 ASP in The Hague, small island States Parties to the ICC
Vanuatu and Maldives addressed the need for ecocide to be seriously
considered by the ICC. Support has been expressed at state level by
France and Belgium, with parliamentarians in a growing number of
countries now discussing this legal route to sanctioning the worst
excesses of environmental damage. The event will cover key legal,
historical and political considerations as well as examining the
broader implications of this approach to protecting Earth's crucial
life-support systems.<br>
<br>
Kindly hosted by the Republic of Vanuatu in association with the
Stop Ecocide Foundation and Institute for Environmental Security.<br>
<br>
Co-host:<br>
Dreli Solomon, First Secretary of the Vanuatan Embassy, Brussels<br>
<br>
Special Guest:<br>
Pekka Haavisto, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Finland<br>
<br>
Speakers:<br>
Professor Philippe Sands QC, Matrix Chambers / University College
London<br>
Kate Mackintosh, Executive Director, Promise Institute for Human
Rights, UCLA School of Law<br>
Marie Toussaint, Member of the European Parliament (Greens/EFA)<br>
Judge Tuiloma Neroni Slade, former ICC judge<br>
<br>
Moderator:<br>
Andrew Harding, BBC Africa correspondent<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT50At89zT8&feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT50At89zT8&feature=youtu.be</a><br>
- -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://coalitionfortheicc.org/general-debate-statements-asp19">https://coalitionfortheicc.org/general-debate-statements-asp19</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[summary]<br>
<b>Extreme Heat and Heat Waves</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/extreme-heat-and-heat-waves">https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/extreme-heat-and-heat-waves</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Classic document, important study from 2016 - how we know it's
human caused]<br>
The National Academies of the Sciences Engineering Medicine<br>
<b>Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate
Change</b><br>
The extent to which climate change influences an individual weather
or climate event<br>
is more difficult to determine. It involves consideration of a host
of possible natural<br>
and anthropogenic factors (e.g., large-scale circulation, internal
modes of climate variability, anthropogenic climate change, aerosol
effects) that combine to produce the<br>
specific conditions of an event. By definition, extreme events are
rare, meaning that<br>
typically there are only a few examples of past events at any given
location.<br>
Nonetheless, this relatively new area of science—often called event
attribution—is<br>
rapidly advancing. The advances have come about for two main
reasons: one, the<br>
understanding of the climate and weather mechanisms that produce
extreme events<br>
is improving, and two, rapid progress is being made in the methods
that are used for<br>
event attribution. This emerging area of science also has drawn the
interest of the<br>
public because of the frequently devastating impacts of the events
that are studied. This is reflected in the strong media interest in
the connection between climate<br>
change and extreme events, and it occurs in part because of the
potential value of<br>
attribution for informing choices about assessing and managing risk
and in guiding<br>
climate adaptation strategies. For example, in the wake of a
devastating event, communities may need to make a decision about
whether to rebuild or to relocate. Such<br>
a decision could hinge on whether the occurrence of an event is
expected to become<br>
more likely or severe in the future—and, if so, by how much. <br>
- -<br>
<b>Event attribution is more reliable when based on sound physical
principles, consistent evidence from observations, and numerical
models that can replicate the</b><b><br>
</b><b>event.</b><br>
- -<br>
<b>Confidence in attribution findings of anthropogenic influence is
greatest for</b><b><br>
</b><b>those extreme events that are related to an aspect of
temperature, such as the</b><b><br>
</b><b>observed long-term warming of the regional or global climate,
where there is</b><b><br>
</b><b>little doubt that human activities have caused an observed
change.</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nap.edu/download/21852">https://www.nap.edu/download/21852</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nap.edu/read/21852/chapter/2">https://www.nap.edu/read/21852/chapter/2</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Some recent history of climate negotiations and Australia]<br>
<b>Australien climate sh!tf@ckery | Richie Merzian</b><br>
Dec 21, 2020<br>
thejuicemedia<br>
Juice Media Podcast 18: In which we take a trip back in time with
Richie Merzian to discover the story of how Australia earned it's
preciousss Kyoto Carryover Credits, and in the process learn about
international climate politics and why our Government has pissed off
the entire world with all its bullshit. Essential history for all
Aussies (and others too)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pTo5yquvjI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pTo5yquvjI</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Two video talks]<br>
<b>Arctic Warming Today Versus Abrupt Warming in Past Dansgaard -
Oeschger Oscillations: Part 1 of 2</b><b><br>
</b><b>Abrupt Arctic Warming and Sea-Ice Loss Today and During
Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations: Part 2 of 2</b><br>
Dec 21, 2020<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
During the last glacial period, from about 110,000 years ago to
about 10,000 years ago, there were many so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger
(D-O) Oscillations. Oxygen isotope data extracted from Greenland ice
cores showed that in D-O events, atmospheric temperatures over
Greenland rapidly rose as much as 5 degrees C to 16.5 degrees C in a
decade or two, and then eventually cooled back down more slowly,
over several hundred to several thousand years. The question is what
was happening to Arctic sea ice coverage during those transitions?
We can guess but is there any data on this?<br>
<br>
I chat about a recent peer-reviewed scientific paper that uses
biomarkers in Nordic Sea ocean floor sediment samples as a proxy for
the Arctic sea ice coverage. This study determines Arctic sea ice
variations during four D-O events between 41,000 years ago and
32,000 years ago. During the extremely rapid warming periods there
was very rapid sea ice loss, then reinvigoration of deep ocean
convection in the Nordic Seas, followed by the abrupt warming in
Greenland. Exactly what seems to be happening today. Today, we are
clearly having the rapid sea ice loss, shifts in ocean circulation,
loss of Arctic Ocean stratification, Atlantification, and extremely
high Arctic atmospheric temperature anomalies. Like my climate
protest poster from many years ago says boldly, “all hell is
breaking loose”. I would like to add “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.<br>
part 1 - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA0edgFkkB8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA0edgFkkB8</a><br>
part 2 - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzF9tLEls">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzF9tLEls</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Wow, they could do it again this year]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
December 24, 1988 </b></font><br>
<p>December 24, 1988: TIME Magazine names "Endangered Earth" its
"Planet of the Year" for 1988, citing in part rising concerns over
global warming.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.deseretnews.com/article/28176/TIME-MAGAZINE-PICKS-EARTH-IN-LIEU-OF-MAN-OF-THE-YEAR.html">http://www.deseretnews.com/article/28176/TIME-MAGAZINE-PICKS-EARTH-IN-LIEU-OF-MAN-OF-THE-YEAR.html</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19890102,00.html">http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19890102,00.html</a><br>
</p>
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