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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>January 1, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[not so bad in one way]<br>
<b>The tornado drought of 2020: Plains lacked trademark twisters
this past year</b><br>
Parts of New Jersey, New York and Maine were more active than
southeast Kansas<br>
The National Weather Service in Wichita ordinarily issues warnings
for a host of tornadoes each spring. Kansas averages more than 100
twisters annually, more than many countries do.<br>
<br>
But in 2020, the Weather Service office in Wichita didn’t log a
single confirmed tornado.<br>
- -<br>
A few days did feature ample moisture to spark severe thunderstorms,
but none coincided with the presence of a trigger mechanism. That
meant that the atmosphere never took advantage of any of its pent-up
rage...<br>
<br>
Another component necessary to spin up rotating supercell
thunderstorms and tornadoes? Wind shear. That’s a change of wind
speed and/or direction with height. Over the Great Plains, wind
shear is usually maximized when surface winds are out of the
east-southeast and upper-level winds are out of the southwest. Winds
from the southwest tend to be warm and carry moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/31/kansas-wichita-tornado-drought/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/31/kansas-wichita-tornado-drought/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[TIME magazine tells us]<b><br>
</b><b>2020 Was a Year of Climate Extremes. What Can We Expect in
2021?</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://time.com/5922963/climate-change-2021/">https://time.com/5922963/climate-change-2021/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[simplify]<b><br>
</b> <b>TV Meteorologist Mike Nelson Wants You To Understand
Climate Change In 10 Minutes With His New Book</b><br>
At just under 20 pages of text, Denver7 News chief meteorologist
Mike Nelson's new book, "The World's Littlest Book On Climate: 10
Facts in 10 Minutes about CO2," feels more like a pamphlet.<br>
<br>
"Most people are not going to spend the time to read a textbook
about climate change," Nelson said. "Our goal with my two
co-authors, Pieter Tans from [the NOAA Earth Systems Research
Laboratories Global Monitoring Division] and Michael Banks, who is a
local environmental writer, was to create something that would be a
quick read, but give you important facts."<br>
<br>
The book is broken down into 10 facts, like No. 3 — "It's Us: The
Global Flood of Human CO2."<br>
<br>
"We know that the increase [in CO2] that we're seeing is not from
any other source than from the burning of fossil fuels," Nelson
said, because CO2 has a chemical signature like a fingerprint, and
scientists can determine where it came from.<br>
<br>
Pre-pandemic, Nelson often does school visits to teach kids about
weather. He now preforms his famous tornado dance virtually...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1341776982799990786">https://twitter.com/i/status/1341776982799990786</a><br>
Nelson said he's starting to focus more on teaching climate change
during his school visits.<br>
<br>
"A lot of that has been in the last eight years since the birth of
my first grandchild," Nelson said. "And realizing the changes that
we're going to see are obviously going to affect that generation
much more than my generation."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cpr.org/2020/12/28/tv-meteorologist-mike-nelson-wants-you-to-understand-climate-change-in-10-minutes-with-his-new-book/">https://www.cpr.org/2020/12/28/tv-meteorologist-mike-nelson-wants-you-to-understand-climate-change-in-10-minutes-with-his-new-book/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[question from security guru Bruce Schneir]<br>
<b>Should There Be Limits on Persuasive Technologies?</b><br>
[2020.12.14] <br>
Persuasion is as old as our species. Both democracy and the market
economy depend on it. Politicians persuade citizens to vote for
them, or to support different policy positions. Businesses persuade
consumers to buy their products or services. We all persuade our
friends to accept our choice of restaurant, movie, and so on. It’s
essential to society; we couldn’t get large groups of people to work
together without it. But as with many things, technology is
fundamentally changing the nature of persuasion. And society needs
to adapt its rules of persuasion or suffer the consequences.<br>
<br>
Democratic societies, in particular, are in dire need of a frank
conversation about the role persuasion plays in them and how
technologies are enabling powerful interests to target audiences. In
a society where public opinion is a ruling force, there is always a
risk of it being mobilized for ill purposes -- such as provoking
fear to encourage one group to hate another in a bid to win office,
or targeting personal vulnerabilities to push products that might
not benefit the consumer.<br>
<br>
In this regard, the United States, already extremely polarized, sits
on a precipice.<br>
<br>
There have long been rules around persuasion. The US Federal Trade
Commission enforces laws that claims about products “must be
truthful, not misleading, and, when appropriate, backed by
scientific evidence.” Political advertisers must identify themselves
in television ads. If someone abuses a position of power to force
another person into a contract, undue influence can be argued to
nullify that agreement. Yet there is more to persuasion than the
truth, transparency, or simply applying pressure.<br>
<br>
Persuasion also involves psychology, and that has been far harder to
regulate. Using psychology to persuade people is not new. Edward
Bernays, a pioneer of public relations and nephew to Sigmund Freud,
made a marketing practice of appealing to the ego. His approach was
to tie consumption to a person’s sense of self. In his 1928 book
Propaganda, Bernays advocated engineering events to persuade target
audiences as desired. In one famous stunt, he hired women to smoke
cigarettes while taking part in the 1929 New York City Easter Sunday
parade, causing a scandal while linking smoking with the
emancipation of women. The tobacco industry would continue to market
lifestyle in selling cigarettes into the 1960s.<br>
<br>
Emotional appeals have likewise long been a facet of political
campaigns. In the 1860 US presidential election, Southern
politicians and newspaper editors spread fears of what a “Black
Republican” win would mean, painting horrific pictures of what the
emancipation of slaves would do to the country. In the 2020 US
presidential election, modern-day Republicans used Cuban Americans’
fears of socialism in ads on Spanish-language radio and messaging on
social media. Because of the emotions involved, many voters believed
the campaigns enough to let them influence their decisions.<br>
<br>
The Internet has enabled new technologies of persuasion to go even
further. Those seeking to influence others can collect and use data
about targeted audiences to create personalized messaging. Tracking
the websites a person visits, the searches they make online, and
what they engage with on social media, persuasion technologies
enable those who have access to such tools to better understand
audiences and deliver more tailored messaging where audiences are
likely to see it most. This information can be combined with data
about other activities, such as offline shopping habits, the places
a person visits, and the insurance they buy, to create a profile of
them that can be used to develop persuasive messaging that is aimed
at provoking a specific response.<br>
<br>
Our senses of self, meanwhile, are increasingly shaped by our
interaction with technology. The same digital environment where we
read, search, and converse with our intimates enables marketers to
take that data and turn it back on us. A modern day Bernays no
longer needs to ferret out the social causes that might inspire you
or entice you -- you’ve likely already shared that by your online
behavior.<br>
<br>
Some marketers posit that women feel less attractive on Mondays,
particularly first thing in the morning -- and therefore that’s the
best time to advertise cosmetics to them. The New York Times once
experimented by predicting the moods of readers based on article
content to better target ads, enabling marketers to find audiences
when they were sad or fearful. Some music streaming platforms
encourage users to disclose their current moods, which helps
advertisers target subscribers based on their emotional states.<br>
<br>
The phones in our pockets provide marketers with our location in
real time, helping deliver geographically relevant ads, such as
propaganda to those attending a political rally. This always-on
digital experience enables marketers to know what we are doing --
and when, where, and how we might be feeling at that moment.<br>
<br>
All of this is not intended to be alarmist. It is important not to
overstate the effectiveness of persuasive technologies. But while
many of them are more smoke and mirrors than reality, it is likely
that they will only improve over time. The technology already exists
to help predict moods of some target audiences, pinpoint their
location at any given time, and deliver fairly tailored and timely
messaging. How far does that ability need to go before it erodes the
autonomy of those targeted to make decisions of their own free will?<br>
<br>
Right now, there are few legal or even moral limits on persuasion --
and few answers regarding the effectiveness of such technologies.
Before it is too late, the world needs to consider what is
acceptable and what is over the line.<br>
<br>
For example, it’s been long known that people are more receptive to
advertisements made with people who look like them: in race,
ethnicity, age, gender. Ads have long been modified to suit the
general demographic of the television show or magazine they appear
in. But we can take this further. The technology exists to take your
likeness and morph it with a face that is demographically similar to
you. The result is a face that looks like you, but that you don’t
recognize. If that turns out to be more persuasive than coarse
demographic targeting, is that okay?<br>
<br>
Another example: Instead of just advertising to you when they detect
that you are vulnerable, what if advertisers craft advertisements
that deliberately manipulate your mood? In some ways, being able to
place ads alongside content that is likely to provoke a certain
emotional response enables advertisers to do this already. The only
difference is that the media outlet claims it isn’t crafting the
content to deliberately achieve this. But is it acceptable to
actively prime a target audience and then to deliver persuasive
messaging that fits the mood?<br>
<br>
Further, emotion-based decision-making is not the rational type of
slow thinking that ought to inform important civic choices such as
voting. In fact, emotional thinking threatens to undermine the very
legitimacy of the system, as voters are essentially provoked to move
in whatever direction someone with power and money wants. Given the
pervasiveness of digital technologies, and the often instant,
reactive responses people have to them, how much emotion ought to be
allowed in persuasive technologies? Is there a line that shouldn’t
be crossed?<br>
<br>
Finally, for most people today, exposure to information and
technology is pervasive. The average US adult spends more than
eleven hours a day interacting with media. Such levels of engagement
lead to huge amounts of personal data generated and aggregated about
you -- your preferences, interests, and state of mind. The more
those who control persuasive technologies know about us, what we are
doing, how we are feeling, when we feel it, and where we are, the
better they can tailor messaging that provokes us into action. The
unsuspecting target is grossly disadvantaged. Is it acceptable for
the same services to both mediate our digital experience and to
target us? Is there ever such thing as too much targeting?<br>
<br>
The power dynamics of persuasive technologies are changing. Access
to tools and technologies of persuasion is not egalitarian. Many
require large amounts of both personal data and computation power,
turning modern persuasion into an arms race where the better
resourced will be better placed to influence audiences.<br>
<br>
At the same time, the average person has very little information
about how these persuasion technologies work, and is thus unlikely
to understand how their beliefs and opinions might be manipulated by
them. What’s more, there are few rules in place to protect people
from abuse of persuasion technologies, much less even a clear
articulation of what constitutes a level of manipulation so great it
effectively takes agency away from those targeted. This creates a
positive feedback loop that is dangerous for society.<br>
<br>
In the 1970s, there was widespread fear about so-called subliminal
messaging, which claimed that images of sex and death were hidden in
the details of print advertisements, as in the curls of smoke in
cigarette ads and the ice cubes of liquor ads. It was pretty much
all a hoax, but that didn’t stop the Federal Trade Commission and
the Federal Communications Commission from declaring it an illegal
persuasive technology. That’s how worried people were about being
manipulated without their knowledge and consent.<br>
<br>
It is time to have a serious conversation about limiting the
technologies of persuasion. This must begin by articulating what is
permitted and what is not. If we don’t, the powerful persuaders will
become even more powerful.<br>
This essay was written with Alicia Wanless, and previously appeared
in Foreign Policy.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/11/big-tech-data-personal-information-persuasion/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/11/big-tech-data-personal-information-persuasion/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://securityboulevard.com/2020/12/should-there-be-limits-on-persuasive-technologies/">https://securityboulevard.com/2020/12/should-there-be-limits-on-persuasive-technologies/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Paul Beckwith videos]<br>
<b>Stratospheric-Tropospheric Feedbacks Driving Extreme Weather
Events and Climate Disruption:</b> 3 of 3<br>
Paul Beckwith - Dec 30, 2020<br>
People are well aware of weather and climate driven events in the
lower atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface (troposphere) where
we all live, but are blissfully unaware of the importance of the
atmospheric level above that (stratosphere) in driving and
modulating extreme weather events at the Earth’s surface. <br>
<br>
In this series of videos I first explain the three large scale
features of stratospheric circulation; namely:<br>
1) Stratospheric Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) or
Brewer-Dobson circulation that transports air from the tropical to
extra-tropical stratosphere.<br>
2) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of periodicity 28 months,
causing descending easterly or westerly equatorial jets of air
driven by tropical Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves.<br>
3) Stratospheric Polar Vortex; circumpolar westerly jets that form
in Autumn, peak in strength in winter, and decay in Spring; can be
disrupted by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events.<br>
<br>
With abrupt climate system change, the troposphere is warming
rapidly, and the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) is cooling, thus
modifying stratospheric-tropospheric interactions in complex ways.<br>
<br>
What we do know, is that SSW is likely to occur in the next month or
so, and if it does then the Stratospheric Polar Jet will split,
similar to 3 years ago, and that would drive Greenland and the
Canadian Arctic much hotter, and cause cold outbreaks in Northern
Asia and in Europe.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyL1_p7CQ1A">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyL1_p7CQ1A</a> 1 of 3<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q0XuU_V-KA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q0XuU_V-KA</a> 2 of 3 <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osqpGNHR4Ck">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osqpGNHR4Ck</a> 3 of 3<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
January 1, 1990 </b></font><br>
In his World Day of Peace message, Pope John Paul II declares:<br>
<blockquote>"The gradual depletion of the ozone layer and the
related 'greenhouse<br>
effect' has now reached crisis proportions as a consequence of<br>
industrial growth, massive urban concentrations and vastly
increased<br>
energy needs. Industrial waste, the burning of fossil fuels,<br>
unrestricted deforestation, the use of certain types of
herbicides,<br>
coolants and propellants: all of these are known to harm the<br>
atmosphere and environment. The resulting meteorological and<br>
atmospheric changes range from damage to health to the possible
future<br>
submersion of low-lying lands.<br>
<br>
"While in some cases the damage already done may well be
irreversible,<br>
in many other cases it can still be halted. It is necessary,
however,<br>
that the entire human community - individuals, States and<br>
international bodies - take seriously the responsibility that is<br>
theirs.<br>
<br>
"The most profound and serious indication of the moral
implications<br>
underlying the ecological problem is the lack of respect for life<br>
evident in many of the patterns of environmental pollution. Often,
the<br>
interests of production prevail over concern for the dignity of<br>
workers, while economic interests take priority over the good of<br>
individuals and even entire peoples. In these cases, pollution or<br>
environmental destruction is the result of an unnatural and<br>
reductionist vision which at times leads to a genuine contempt for<br>
man.<br>
<br>
"On another level, delicate ecological balances are upset by the<br>
uncontrolled destruction of animal and plant life or by a reckless<br>
exploitation of natural resources. It should be pointed out that
all<br>
of this, even if carried out in the name of progress and
well-being,<br>
is ultimately to mankind's disadvantage."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_19891208_xxiii-world-day-for-peace_en.html">http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_19891208_xxiii-world-day-for-peace_en.html</a><br>
<br>
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