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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>January 6, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[Capital Weather Gang]<br>
<b>The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of
wild winter weather</b><br>
A sudden stratospheric warming event has pushed the polar vortex off
the North Pole, sending Arctic air on the move...<br>
- -<br>
By Andrew Freedman - Jan. 5, 2021 <br>
A dramatic spike in temperatures is occurring at high altitudes
above the North Pole, where the air is thin and typically frigid.
Known as a sudden stratospheric warming event, experts say it’s
likely to have potentially significant repercussions for winter
weather across the Northern Hemisphere for weeks to possibly months.<br>
<br>
This unusually strong event may have profound influences on the
weather in the United States and Europe, possibly increasing the
potential for paralyzing snowstorms and punishing blasts of Arctic
air, with the odds of the most severe cold outbreaks highest in
Northern Europe. The United States is slightly more of a winter wild
card for now, experts say, with individual winter storms tough to
predict beyond a few days in advance.<br>
<br>
While occurring about 18 miles high in the sky and disconnected from
the weather on the ground, stratospheric warming events can affect
the polar vortex, which is a circulation of air around low pressure
that acts as a repository for some of the coldest air on the
planet...<br>
- -<br>
This means the next several weeks at least could bring periods when
conditions would favor snowstorms along the Eastern Seaboard, mixed
with periods of at least several days when the most important
ingredients would be missing. That’s a recipe for anxiety among East
Coast snow lovers, but also some hope after a record snowless winter
in the Mid-Atlantic and parts of New England last year.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/</a><br>
- - <br>
[Ooops winter weather]<br>
JANUARY 5, 2021<br>
<b>Imminent sudden stratospheric warming to occur, bringing
increased risk of snow over coming weeks</b><br>
by University of Bristol<br>
The Stratospheric Polar Vortex is about to split in two, and the
weakening of the vortex was followed around two weeks later by a
severe cold air outbreak over Europe known as the Beast from the
East. Data from ERA-Interim reanalysis (Dee et al., 2011). Credit:
University of Bristol<br>
A new study led by researchers at the Universities of Bristol,
Exeter, and Bath helps to shed light on the winter weather we may
soon have in store following a dramatic meteorological event
currently unfolding high above the North Pole.<br>
<br>
The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from around 10-50km
above the earth's surface. SSW events are some of the most extreme
of atmospheric phenomena and can see polar stratospheric temperature
increase by up to 50°C over the course of a few days. Such events
can bring very cold weather, which often result in snowstorms.<br>
<br>
The infamous 2018 'Beast from the East' is a stark reminder of what
an SSW can bring. The disturbance in the stratosphere can be
transmitted downward and if this continues to the Earth's surface,
there can be a shift in the jet stream, leading to unusually cold
weather across Europe and Northern Asia. It can take a number of
weeks for the signal to reach the surface, or the process may only
take a few days.<br>
<br>
The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research and
funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), involved
the analysis of 40 observed SSW events which occurred over the last
60 years. Researchers developed a novel method for tracking the
signal of an SSW downward from its onset in the stratosphere to the
surface.<br>
<br>
Findings in the paper, Tracking the stratosphere-to-surface impact
of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings suggest split events tend to be
associated with colder weather over north west Europe and Siberia.<br>
<br>
Lead author of the study, Dr. Richard Hall, said there was an
increased chance of extreme cold, and potentially snow, over the
next week or two. "While an extreme cold weather event is not a
certainty, around two thirds of SSWs have a significant impact on
surface weather. What's more, today's SSW is potentially the most
dangerous kind, where the polar vortex splits into two smaller
'child' vortices."<br>
<br>
"The extreme cold weather that these polar vortex breakdowns bring
is a stark reminder of how suddenly our weather can flip. Even with
climate change warming our planet, these events will still occur,
meaning we must be adaptable to an ever more extreme range of
temperatures," said Dann Mitchell, Associate Professor of
Atmospheric Science at the University of Bristol and co-author of
the study.<br>
<br>
"Our study quantifies for the first time the probabilities of when
we might expect extreme surface weather following a sudden
stratospheric warming (SSW) event. These vary widely, but
importantly the impacts appear faster and stronger following events
in which the stratospheric polar vortex splits in two, as is
predicted in the currently unfolding event. Despite this advance
many questions remain as to the mechanisms causing these dramatic
events, and how they can influence the surface, and so this is an
exciting and important area for future research," said Dr. William
Seviour, senior lecturer at the Department of Mathematics and Global
Systems Institute, University of Exeter, and co-author of the study.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2021-01-imminent-sudden-stratospheric-weeks.html">https://phys.org/news/2021-01-imminent-sudden-stratospheric-weeks.html</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[One state]<br>
<b>Massachusetts Legislature passes landmark climate change bill</b><br>
BOSTON —<br>
The Massachusetts Legislature has passed breakthrough climate
legislation that overhauls the state’s climate laws, drives down
greenhouse gas emissions, creates clean energy jobs, and protects
environmental justice communities.<br>
<br>
The bill, An Act Creating a Next-Generation Roadmap for
Massachusetts Climate Policy (S.2995), was passed by both the
Massachusetts House of Representatives and the State Senate on
Monday.<br>
<br>
The legislation sets a 2050 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions limit,
as well as statewide limits every five years; increases the
requirements for offshore wind energy procurement bringing the
statewide total to 5,600 megawatts; requires emission reduction
goals for MassSave, the state’s energy efficiency program; and, for
the first time, establishes the criteria in a statute that define
environmental justice populations.<br>
<br>
It also increases support for clean energy workforce development
programs including those targeting low-income communities and
improves gas pipeline safety.<br>
<br>
“This legislation takes a historic step in the fight against climate
change, putting Massachusetts on the path to creating a cleaner,
greener and healthier future for the next generation,” State Senate
President Karen Spilka said in a statement. “I am thrilled to see
this legislation codifies our shared goal of reducing harmful carbon
emissions to zero by 2050, and creates new energy initiatives and
standards to help us reach that target.”<br>
<br>
“This legislation represents a major piece of climate legislation
that will set the course of the Commonwealth for the next three
decades,” reads a statement from Massachusetts House Speaker Ron
Mariano. “Today we send a message loud and clear that Massachusetts
will empower our environmental justice communities, achieve net zero
emissions by 2050, continue to lead on offshore wind, increase
equitable access to our clean energy programs, and create pathways
to clean energy jobs for underserved and low-income communities.”<br>
<br>
“Amid the unprecedented public health and economic challenges
brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, I’m proud of the Legislature’s
ongoing commitment to protecting our environment,” said former House
Speaker Robert DeLeo. “The actions the House and Senate took today
will keep Massachusetts on-track to lead the nation in clean energy
and environmental policies.”<br>
<br>
The climate change bill now moves to the desk of Gov. Charlie Baker.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/new-hampshire-boy-in-california-for-clinical-trial-has-beloved-cookie-monster-stolen/35133092">https://www.wcvb.com/article/new-hampshire-boy-in-california-for-clinical-trial-has-beloved-cookie-monster-stolen/35133092</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[recent post-pandemic video]<br>
<b>"Clarity," Climate Change & Culture Shift Series</b><br>
on September 1st, 2020 <br>
Clarity presented by Dr. Rob Davies, Physicist and Climate
Communicator, Utah State University, as part of the Climate Change
& Culture Shift series, Fall 2020, Weber State University<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://1533221.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/0_ciudfxmu">https://1533221.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/0_ciudfxmu</a><br>
- -<br>
[Clear language, classic science, fundamentals of future climate
changes - excellent summary pre-pandemic presentation]<br>
<b>Defining Radical In The Age of Humans</b><br>
Feb 7, 2020<br>
Summit County Television<br>
Robert Davies is a physicist and noted science communicator whose
work focuses on complexity, global change and human vibrancy. Over
the past decade Rob has delivered hundreds of public lectures ― to
policymakers, business leaders, civic organizations and faith
communities ― and his “performance science” theatrical collaboration
The Crossroads Project | Rising Tide has been performed across the
U.S. and in three countries. Dr. Davies has served as a scientific
liaison for NASA on the International Space Station Project; as a
project scientist with USU’s Space Dynamics Laboratory; and an
officer and meteorologist in the United States Air Force.
Originally hailing from the Black Hills of South Dakota, Rob is
currently Associate Professor of Professional Practice in Utah State
University’s Dept. of Physics, in Logan, Utah.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0iEv7B2dzQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0iEv7B2dzQ</a><br>
- -<br>
[This audio recorded shortly before his video lecture - a
pre-pandemic talk]<br>
<b>Dr. Rob Davies talks climate</b><br>
May 11, 2020<br>
University of Montana College of Business<br>
In case you forgot, we’re facing a few other big, multi-dimensional
challenges that require coordination across myriad aspects of a
global society. Climate change is one such challenge and when Utah
State University Professor Rob Davies visited Missoula to keynote
Climate Smart Missoula’s Big Climate Event, we jumped at the chance
to get some time with him. Rob is not only a top flight scientist,
he’s also a gifted and passionate science communicator. Climate
conversations often leave us feeling helpless but Rob’s view is much
more hopeful. Not because the problem is small, but rather because
we have not yet even begun to take it seriously.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoaEAgb_A6w">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoaEAgb_A6w</a><br>
- -<br>
[Rare video of Robert Davies - thanks goes to LaUra S. ]<br>
<b>Planetary Boundaries & Social Foundations - A Framework for a
Sustainable, Just and Vibrant Space for Humanity</b><br>
From cats on December 3rd, 2019 <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://1533221.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/0_brr7p08n">https://1533221.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/0_brr7p08n</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
January 6, 2009 </b></font><br>
January 6, 2009: Days before leaving office, a rather defensive
President George W. Bush insists that his administration has
"...taken aggressive steps to make America's energy supply cleaner
and more secure -- and confronted the challenge of global climate
change."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2009/01/20090106-4.html">http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2009/01/20090106-4.html</a>
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