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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>January 17, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[Wildfire Today]<br>
<b>Red Flag Warnings in Southern California</b><br>
Posted on January 16, 2021<br>
The winds are going to be breezy to very strong, off and on through
Thursday<br>
After record high temperatures were set Friday in multiple Southern
California locations, Red Flag Warnings continue on Saturday.
Residents in Santa Clarita can expect the temperature to reach 83
degrees today, with the humidity in the low teens, and 22 mph winds
out of the northeast gusting to 33. Strong winds will continue
through Saturday night but will taper off a bit Sunday, 18 to 22 mph
gusting out of the northeast at 28 to 34.<br>
<br>
Monday afternoon a strong offshore pressure gradient will begin
growing, bringing very strong winds out of the northeast again, with
the humidity in the low 20s and teens.<br>
<br>
Wind speeds next week:<br>
<blockquote>Monday afternoon: 24 mph gusting at 32<br>
Monday night: 25 to 47 gusting at 37 to 62<br>
Tuesday: 47 gusting at 63<br>
Tuesday night: 29 to 41 gusting at 38 to 54<br>
Wednesday: 18 to 26 gusting at 24 to 34<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/">https://wildfiretoday.com/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/01/16/red-flag-warnings-in-southern-california-2/">https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/01/16/red-flag-warnings-in-southern-california-2/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Media and Climate Change Observatory]<br>
<b>2020 Year End Retrospective</b><br>
Special Issue 2020<br>
<b>A Review of Media Coverage of Climate Change and Global Warming
in 2020</b><br>
2020 has been another critical year in which climate change and
global warming fought for media attention amid competing interests
in other stories, events and issues around the globe. Yet, climate
change and global warming garnered coverage through stories
manifesting through primary and often intersecting, political,
economic, scientific, cultural as well as ecological and
meteorological themes.<br>
<br>
As the year 2020 has drawn to a close, new vocabularies have
pervaded the centers of our consciousness: ‘flattening the curve’,
systemic racism, ‘pods’, hydroxycholoroquine, ‘social distancing’,
quarantines, ‘remote learning’, essential and front-line workers,
‘superspreaders’, P.P.E., ‘doomscrolling’, and Zoom...<br>
- -<br>
At the global level, 2020 media attention dropped 23% from 2019.<br>
Nonetheless, this level of coverage was still up 34% compared to
2018,<br>
41% higher than 2017, 38% higher than 2016 and still 24% up from
2015. In<br>
fact, 2020 ranks second in terms of the amount of coverage of
climate change or<br>
global warming (behind 2019) since our monitoring began 17 years ago
in 2004<br>
- -<br>
We monitor 120 sources (across newspapers, radio and TV) in 54
countries in seven different regions around the world. We assemble
the data by accessing archives through the Lexis Nexis, Proquest and
Factiva databases via the University of Colorado libraries. These
sources are selected through a decision processes involving
weighting of three main factors:<br>
-- geographical diversity (favoring a greater geographical range)<br>
-- circulation (favoring higher circulating publications)<br>
-- reliable access to archives over time (favoring those accessible
consistently for longer periods of time)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/images/sp2020/figure3.jpg">https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/images/sp2020/figure3.jpg</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/special_issue_2020.html">https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/special_issue_2020.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[use the past to forecast]<br>
<b>Climate change could take weather patterns back to the Pliocene</b><br>
If you want to know how the climate-changed future will unfold, look
at the past<br>
By NATHANAEL JOHNSON<br>
JANUARY 16, 2021<br>
The West Coast drinks from the wind. When westerly gales carry humid
air from the Pacific Ocean into the Sierra Nevada and the Cascade
mountain ranges, the West turns green, orchards blossom, and
reservoirs swell. When those westerlies deflect to the north, hills
turn brown, cities ban sprinklers, and forest fires flare.<br>
<br>
There are consistent bands of westerly winds at about 40 degrees
latitude in both hemispheres — near San Francisco in the northern
hemisphere, and near Concepción, Chile, in the south. Over the past
few decades scientists have seen these westerlies creeping toward
the poles. If this shift is a result of climate change and
continues, it could have profound implications: Over the next
century, Seattle might become as dry as Los Angeles, and California
could settle into an era of unending drought.<br>
So are the westerlies going to keep drifting away from the equator?
Well, if you want to know how the climate-changed future will
unfold, look at the past: In the Pliocene, 2.6 to 5 million years
ago, carbon dioxide levels were about what they are today but with
warmer temperatures. And a new paper, just published in the journal
Nature, provides evidence that back then the westerlies were closer
to the poles.<br>
<br>
The scientists didn't intend to chart the paths of ancient winds.
They started off by studying the dust blown off the steppes of Asia
that has swirled down for millenia to form the muddy bottom of the
Pacific Ocean. While examining the layers of sediment on the ocean
floor, they realized they were able to spot a change in the
prehistoric winds.<br>
<br>
"As we are looking at these dust records, we saw that the dust goes
up a lot 2.7 million years ago," as the Pliocene climate was
cooling, said Jordan Abell, the paper's lead author and a doctoral
candidate in earth and environmental sciences at Columbia
University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Back then, the
climate took a cold turn. As temperatures cooled and ice-caps grew
over the north pole, the winds began dumping a lot more dust into a
previously windless site closer to the equator.<br>
This makes some intuitive sense. Weather tends to happen in the
spots where warm air meets cold. "The weather is more intense where
the temperature gradient is steep," Abell said. "When you have ice
over your poles it's going to cool the air and move that gradient
toward the equator."<br>
<br>
Now we may be witnessing the phenomenon in reverse: As ice caps
dwindle, prevailing winds could slide away from the equator. That
doesn't guarantee it's going to happen in the near future. This
paper isn't about how the weather patterns will shift in the next
generation, it's about how things are likely to change over the next
century. In the long term, the trajectory is not back to the future,
but forward toward the Pliocene.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.salon.com/2021/01/15/climate-change-could-take-weather-patterns-back-to-the-pliocene_partner/">https://www.salon.com/2021/01/15/climate-change-could-take-weather-patterns-back-to-the-pliocene_partner/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[food stress]<br>
<b>Climate Change Is Harming Children’s Diets Globally, Scientists
Warn</b><br>
Emily Denny - Jan. 15, 2021<br>
In an alarming new study, scientists found that climate change is
already harming children's diets.<br>
<br>
It has long been understood that climate change will impact diet and
food security globally. But up until now, little research proved how
diet diversity is impacted by climate change outcomes, like warmer
temperatures and increased precipitation, over a span of
geographical areas.<br>
<br>
Led by researchers at the University of Vermont, the study surveyed
the diets of more than 107,00 children under the age of five, across
19 countries in Asia, Africa, and South America, with 30 years of
precipitation and temperature data, according to the study...<br>
Higher, long-term temperatures were associated with decreased diet
diversity among children. "It surprised us that higher temperatures
are already showing an impact," Meredith Niles, the study's lead
author and an assistant professor of Nutrition and Food Sciences at
the University of Vermont, said in an article.<br>
<br>
In 2019, over 144 million children under the age of five were
malnourished, according to data by the UNICEF. This number could
have grown by an additional 6.7 million in 2020 alone, exacerbated
by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report published in July.<br>
<br>
In the study, researchers used a scale developed by the United
Nations to understand intakes of micronutrients like iron, folic
acid, zinc and vitamins A and D.<br>
<br>
On average children ate 3.2 out of 10 food groups. But in "emerging
economies" like in China, children ate 6.8 out of 10 food groups,
more than doubling the overall average, according to the University
of Vermont. Household wealth, consequently, was the biggest factor
in children's diet diversity, Reuters reported.<br>
<br>
"These results suggest that, if we don't adapt, climate change could
further erode a diet that already isn't meeting adequate child
micronutrient levels," Brendan Fisher from UVM's Rubenstein School
of Environment and Natural Resources said about children's diets in
developing countries.<br>
<br>
Although the study proved what researchers had long expected
regarding warming temperatures, they did find surprising results on
how precipitation alters diet diversity.<br>
<br>
Higher precipitation, linked to countries in West and Southeast
Africa and Central America, was associated with higher diversity in
children's diet, the University of Vermont reported.<br>
<br>
"Higher rainfall in the future may provide important diet quality
benefits in multiple ways, but it also depends on how that rain
comes," Molly Brown, a co-author of the study said. "If it's more
erratic and intense, as is predicted with climate change, this may
not hold true."<br>
<br>
Changes in the agriculture and the food industry can also be linked
to worsening diets, Paolo Vineis of Imperial College London, who
studies the effects of climate change on the disease, told Reuters.<br>
<br>
By 2050, global demand for food may increase by 59 to 98 percent
from a larger population. Although this will require major
agricultural and food industries to rapidly expand their production,
droughts and higher temperatures will threaten their ability to do
so, Columbia University's Earth Institute reported.<br>
<br>
In the United States alone, for example, the production of corn,
which is used to feed livestock, could decrease by 50 percent if the
planet warms by four degrees Celsius, a study found, a likely
temperature increase predicted for 2100.<br>
<br>
So what kind of solutions can help?<br>
<br>
Educating investors on the financial risks and potential
opportunities of the climate crisis could help the food industry
adapt to the climate impacts already being felt, Columbia
University's Earth Institute reported<br>
<br>
"Food security is going to be one of the most pressing
climate-related issues, mainly because most of the world is
relatively poor and food is going to become increasingly scarce and
expensive," Peter De Menocal, founding director of Columbia's Center
for Climate and Life, told Columbia's Earth Institute.<br>
<br>
As for improving diets globally, researchers at the University of
Vermont stress the need for more research aimed at protecting
children's nutrition especially for "vulnerable populations in low
and middle-income countries across the tropics where the most
profound climate changes are expected."<br>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-children-food-2649952919.html">https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-children-food-2649952919.html</a></p>
<p>- -[UNICEF data]</p>
<b>Malnutrition prevalence remains alarming: stunting is declining
too slowly while wasting still impacts the lives of far too many
young children</b><br>
Nearly half of all deaths in children under 5 are attributable to
undernutrition; undernutrition puts children at greater risk of
dying from common infections, increases the frequency and severity
of such infections, and delays recovery.<br>
UNICEF Data: Monitoring the situation of children and women<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://data.unicef.org/topic/nutrition/malnutrition/">https://data.unicef.org/topic/nutrition/malnutrition/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[one oil company has stopped lobbying]<br>
<b>France's Total quits top U.S. oil lobby in climate split</b><br>
By Ron Bousso<br>
LONDON (Reuters) - France’s Total SE on Friday became the first
major global energy company to quit the main U.S. oil and gas lobby
due to disagreements over its climate policies and support for
easing drilling regulations...<br>
Total said it would not renew its 2021 membership with the American
Petroleum Institute (API) following a review of the lobby’s climate
positions, describing them as being only “partially aligned” with
its own.<br>
<br>
The high-profile departure from the most powerful energy lobby comes
ahead of sweeping changes in policy direction in the United States,
with incoming President Joe Biden promising to tackle climate change
and bring the country to net-zero emissions by 2050.<br>
<br>
“As part of our climate ambition made public in May 2020, we are
committed to ensuring, in a transparent manner, that the industry
associations of which we are a member adopt positions and messages
that are aligned with those of the Group in the fight against
climate change”, Total Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné said.<br>
The withdrawal highlights a widening rift between Europe’s top
energy companies, which over the past year accelerated plans to cut
emissions and build large renewable energy businesses and their U.S.
rivals Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp that have largely resisted
growing investor pressure to diversify.<br>
<br>
Chevron has no plans to leave the API, company spokesman Sean Comey
said. Exxon was not immediately available for comment.<br>
<br>
The announcement puts pressure on Total’s European rivals BP and
Royal Dutch Shell to follow suit after resisting the move in recent
years.<br>
<br>
BP, Shell and Norway’s Equinor on Friday said they are reviewing
memberships in trade organizations and how they align on
climate-related issues. Shell spokesman Curtis Moore said “API is
moving closer to Shell’s own stated views” on climate change...<br>
- -<br>
Total, BP and Shell have already pulled out of the American Fuel
& Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), a U.S. oil refining group,
also due to differences over climate policies.<br>
<br>
The withdrawal from API was more significant, said Andrew Logan,
director for oil and gas programmes and clean energy investor group
CERES, said the announcement was significant and would put pressure
on other European oil majors.<br>
<br>
“Given the size and influence of API, this is a much more
significant move than previous decisions to pull out of more niche
trade groups like AFPM. I think that we will see other companies
follow suit,” Logan said.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-api/total-quits-top-us-oil-lobby-in-climate-split-idUSKBN29K1LM">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-api/total-quits-top-us-oil-lobby-in-climate-split-idUSKBN29K1LM</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Andy Revkin video]<br>
<b>How to Build Science Engagement in a Disrupted Democracy</b><br>
Jan 15, 2021<br>
Andrew Revkin<br>
It’s hard enough for data and expertise to prompt significant
changes in behavior or policy even in the best of times. And these
are not the best of times by a long shot, with an unabated pandemic
and economic stresses deepening a profound societal, and
information, divide. <br>
<br>
Join a brisk quest for solutions with the Earth Institute’s Andy
Revkin and two communication scholars immersed in efforts to stem
the pandemic and climate change:<br>
<br>
- Dominique Brossard, chair of the University of Wisconsin-Madison
Department of Life Sciences Communication<br>
<br>
- Matthew C. Nisbet, professor of communication, public policy, and
urban affairs at Northeastern University<br>
<br>
Read Nisbet's new Substack column: Wealth of Ideas - Politics,
culture, and moderation in an age of extremes:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wealthofideas.substack.com/">https://wealthofideas.substack.com/</a><br>
<br>
He also wrote a relevant 2018 report for the American Association
for the Advancement of Science, Scientists in Civic Life:
Facilitating Dialogue-Based Communication:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.aaas.org/programs/dialogu">https://www.aaas.org/programs/dialogu</a>...<br>
<br>
Brossard is an internationally recognized expert in public opinion
dynamics around a host of controversial science-bound issues, from
climate policy to emerging genetic technologies and, of course,
COVID-19. She is a member of the National Academies' Societal
Experts Action Network (SEAN), an array of experts in the social,
behavioral, and economic sciences poised to assist decision makers
at all levels as they respond to COVID-19.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nap.edu/resource/25826/in">https://www.nap.edu/resource/25826/in</a>...<br>
<br>
Sustain What, produced and hosted by veteran journalist Andrew
Revkin, is a series of conversations pursuing progress when
complexity, conflict and consequence collide:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://j.mp/sustainwhatlive">http://j.mp/sustainwhatlive</a><br>
<br>
Send feedback or suggestions for future shows: <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://j.mp/sustainwhatfeedback">http://j.mp/sustainwhatfeedback</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ch3ZU_Vbt8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ch3ZU_Vbt8</a>
<p> </p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
January 17, 2006 </b></font><br>
<p>The Fred Barnes book "Rebel-in-Chief: Inside the Bold and
Controversial Presidency of George W. Bush" is released. In the
book, Barnes notes that in 2005, Bush had a private meeting with
overrated novelist and climate-change denier Michael Crichton,
during which Bush and Crichton "were in near-total agreement"
about the supposed alarmism of climate activists.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/19/national/19warming.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0">http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/19/national/19warming.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/02/16/the-full-barnes-treatment-of-b/">http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/02/16/the-full-barnes-treatment-of-b/</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2008/11/07/michael-crichton-author-of-state-of-fear-leaves-global-warming-disinformation-legacy/">http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2008/11/07/michael-crichton-author-of-state-of-fear-leaves-global-warming-disinformation-legacy/</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
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