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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>February 3, 2021</b></font></i><br>
</p>
[The Atlantic has a tactical notion]<br>
<b>The Weekly Planet: A New Idea for Fighting Climate Change:
Retirement Plans!</b><br>
If you’re retiring in the 2060s, you should make sure you can enjoy
the 2060s.<br>
ROBINSON MEYER<br>
In January 2020, Boris Khentov attended a climate protest in
Washington, D.C., led by Jane Fonda. (She was, at its climax,
arrested.) Its theme was the role of financial institutions in the
climate crisis, and the speakers—who included Joaquin Phoenix,
Martin Sheen, and the environmental author Bill McKibben—stressed
one idea over and over again: divestment.<br>
<br>
Financial institutions needed to stop investing in fossil-fuel
companies, they said, for society to have a shot at fighting climate
change. For the past decade, divestment has been the climate
movement’s biggest demand of banks, pension funds, and university
endowments, an echo of earlier campaigns against apartheid and Big
Tobacco.<br>
“As we marched together towards the Capitol, one phrase ran through
my mind,” Khentov later told me in an email: “‘If only it were that
simple.’”<br>
<br>
Khentov is not an expert in climate change, but he does know
something about finance. He is the senior vice president of
operations at Betterment, a software company that advises people on
how best to manage their money.<br>
Betterment is what’s called a robo-adviser: It offers consumers a
few portfolios of stocks and bonds, then automatically shifts how
assets in a portfolio are “weighted” for each customer’s goals, so
that a 30-year-old, say, has more stocks in her retirement fund than
a 60-year-old. It has about half a million customers and $22 billion
under management.<br>
<br>
Divestment wasn’t wrong, Khentov thought, but it was inadequate. The
fight against climate change requires transforming the physical
stuff of the world—its engines, refineries, foundries, everything we
call economic infrastructure—in the next 30 years. That would
require more than just an oil change, so to speak. It would require
changing every company—including Betterment.<br>
<br>
The protest led him to create something that, as far as I know, is
unique among major 401(k) providers and robo-advisers: a
specifically climate-focused portfolio. (This week he published a
blog post explaining what went into making it.) Any American can
invest in it, including with a retirement account such as a Roth
IRA. (Before we get any further, I should specify: Nothing in this
column constitutes financial advice.)<br>
<br>
Even if you don’t have any retirement savings, the new Betterment
climate portfolio is worthy of your attention, I think. Unlike many
would-be pro-climate investment products, it represents a sincere
attempt to think through what will actually change the economy.<br>
<br>
To very quickly catch you up, there are two big trends in investing
circa 2021. The first is that investors are choosing broad, low-fee,
diversified funds that track the overall market rather than
searching for the very few companies that do disproportionately
well. The second is the laudable but frankly kind of nebulous idea
that people want to invest in line with their values. This is
usually called investing for “environmental, social, and
governance,” or ESG, funds. Over the past few years, hundreds of
billions have poured into ESG funds.<br>
<br>
Betterment has promoted and boosted these two trends. Its “core”
portfolio tracks major indices, and, in 2017, it launched an
ESG-inspired portfolio.<br>
<br>
ESG funds are seen as inherently climate-friendly, but they’re
really not—or, at least, they usually have a broader ambit than
climate alone. Many ESG funds track companies based on how well they
perform on a scorecard, which might look at a firm’s carbon
footprint alongside questions of “good corporate governance” that
climate-focused investors don’t necessarily care about. Some ESG
funds invest more in companies if they have a woman on the board of
directors—which is a worthwhile idea, except that ExxonMobil’s board
has three.<br>
<br>
The basic idea of ESG is good, though—and, I would add, goes to the
heart of what retirement means in the first place. Perhaps for older
readers—and I mean this with no slight—the middle decades of the
21st century remain notional. But I, God willing, would like to
celebrate my 59th birthday in 2050, and under current law, I have to
start taking money from my 401(k) in 2063...<br>
That’s about the same time that 90 percent of the world’s coral
reefs will be at risk of destruction, and when much of California’s
forestland will be giving way to scrub, grassland, and desert. The
premise of retirement is that I will one day get to enjoy the 2060s,
but it will take some societal work to make the 2060s enjoyable. I
would like my (for now, meager) retirement savings to enable such
work.<br>
<br>
I am, apparently, not alone. In October, Betterment split its new
climate-focused portfolio from its main ESG offering. Within three
weeks of launch, it passed $100 million in total assets—“far faster
than any brand-new portfolio in Betterment’s 10-year history,”
Khentov wrote. The median investor in the climate portfolio is three
years younger than the median Betterment customer.<br>
<br>
What are those investors getting? After he came home from the
protest, Khentov began a months-long research effort to improve
Betterment’s climate portfolio.<br>
<br>
“Literally every single sector, every single business, has a CO2
emissions profile,” he said in an interview. “How do we incorporate
the fact that these oil and gas companies are pumping, and these
utilities are burning, to serve [other] companies? Every business
has a carbon profile and very few have fossil-fuel reserves.”<br>
<br>
What was needed was another approach—call it divestment-plus. He and
his colleagues decided to divide the new Betterment portfolio into
three parts.<br>
<br>
The first is divestment. Betterment devotes about half of its stock
portfolio to exchange-traded funds that track large-cap companies
that have no oil, gas, or coal reserves. So Microsoft is here, but
no Exxon. Google, but no Chevron. Yet pipeline manufacturers are
here too, because even though they trade in fossil fuels, they don’t
own underground reserves.<br>
<br>
The second approach is what he calls “optimization.” Betterment
commits the other half of its stock portfolio to a fund called CRBN,
which elevates companies that have the smallest ratio of carbon
emissions per dollar in their respective sector. That is, it finds
the cleanest companies in each industry, and “votes” for them with
dollars.<br>
<br>
The final approach is to invest in “green bonds,” through a fund
called BGRN. These bonds directly finance climate-friendly
investments, such as new renewable projects.<br>
<br>
None of these strategies is perfect. The divestment stocks “clearly
represent that energy and emotion that I saw when I was protesting,”
Khentov said, but because most companies raise money by issuing
bonds, divestment from shares may not significantly raise the cost
they pay for capital. The optimization approach isn’t ideal either,
because these index funds pick the lowest-carbon companies in every
sector, including the energy sector. And the green-bond industry
remains hopelessly unregulated, so it’s hard to know whether your
dollars are funding truly pro-climate projects. (Although the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission could step in soon.)...<br>
The optimization problem in particular troubles Justin Guay, a
climate-finance activist and the director of global climate strategy
at the Sunrise Project. Companies solely devoted to fossil fuels
should have no place in a climate portfolio, he told me. “Some
companies need to die as part of the energy transition, while others
need to evolve into birds,” he said.<br>
<br>
Khentov argues that a “best in class” index, such as CRBN, could
open up a new age of what he calls “index activism.” Companies are
desperate to get on crucial stock-market indexes—when Tesla made the
S&P 500 earlier this year, it was interpreted as a
coronation—because they raise the share price, and because they act
as a de facto vote of confidence for management. If CRBN attracted
enough investor money, he said, then simply wanting to remain on its
index could become a pressure point for a company’s executives. They
might undertake more ambitious decarbonization plans to stay ahead
of their competitors, driving what the political scientist Sarah
Manina Kelsey calls a “green spiral”of positive behavior.<br>
<br>
Or maybe not: Either way, the Betterment portfolio is, Khentov
admits, an experiment. It wouldn’t have been possible to put
together this climate portfolio a year ago, he said, and it’s
possible that next year, even better climate-focused funds will be
available for his team to add to its portfolio. The next frontier,
for instance, may be investing in a fund that promises to get
involved in disputes between investors and management over climate
plans. But right now, no such fund exists.<br>
<br>
When I talked to Guay, the activist, he homed in on—and
complimented—an aspect of Betterment’s design that I hadn’t noticed.
When an investor opens a fund on Betterment’s website, the user
interface puts its “core” portfolio on the same tier as its socially
responsible portfolios, including its climate portfolio...<br>
“That is different. That is fundamentally different than most
retirement advisers,” he said. Fidelity, for instance, provides no
divested portfolio options for its 401(k) customers.<br>
<br>
The next step, he said, was for the climate-friendly portfolio to
become the default. “Options are all well and good … but you’ll
never get there by consumer choice alone,” he said, citing research
that organ-donation programs are more successful when they’re
opt-out. “The problem can’t fall on the shoulders of consumers.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/02/new-idea-fighting-climate-change-retirement-plans-betterment/617909/">https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/02/new-idea-fighting-climate-change-retirement-plans-betterment/617909/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[fast says NPR]<br>
<b>How Fast Will Biden Need To Move On Climate? Really, Really Fast</b><br>
February 2, 20215<br>
LAUREN SOMMER<br>
In a flurry of first-week executive orders, President Biden sent a
definitive message that his administration would move faster on
climate change than any before. Now, the question is whether it will
be fast enough.<br>
<br>
Scientists warn that the coming decade will be critical for slowing
heat-trapping emissions, potentially keeping average annual global
temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to
the mid-19th century. Right now, the world is on track for an
increase of 3 degrees Celsius, a level that ensures more destructive
wildfires and hurricanes, devastation for coral reefs and rising
seas flooding the coastlines.<br>
<br>
Biden has set a goal of making the U.S. carbon neutral by 2050,
which will require steeper emissions cuts than the U.S. has ever
achieved. To reach it, coal power would have to wane into a
footnote, replaced by renewables like solar and wind. Most cars
would run on batteries, instead of gas. He has also emphasized
investing in communities that are hardest hit, both communities of
color that bear the highest pollution burden and those that depend
on disappearing fossil fuel jobs.<br>
- -<br>
"We need to increase tree cover five times faster than we are," said
John Kerry, Biden's special envoy for climate. "We need to ramp up
renewable energy six times faster. And the transition to electric
vehicles needs to take place at a rate 22 times faster."<br>
<br>
Prevailing winds are blowing in Biden's direction. Renewable energy
is increasingly cheaper and, along with a glut of natural gas, is
driving coal power plants to retire. States and companies are
pursuing their own goals to cut emissions.<br>
<br>
Still, reversing the Trump Administration's environmental rollbacks
could potentially take years. The administration will also need the
cooperation of Congress to dramatically increase investment in
climate policies. Biden says even without Congress, climate will be
a priority across all federal agencies.<br>
<br>
"To me, that suggests that it's not just a campaign promise, but
that the administration is really committed to achieving this goal,"
says Angel Hsu, assistant professor at University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill. "That said, it's very easy to make these types of
goals and pledges. The hard part really comes in the follow
through."...<br>
- -<br>
"Coal-fired power plants are just uneconomic and are continuing to
retire," says Dan Lashof, director of the World Resources Institute.
"But much of the power from coal plans has been replaced by natural
gas-fired power plants, and we need to start making that transition
away from gas. And that means doubling or tripling the pace at which
we're building wind and solar over the next decade."...<br>
- -<br>
As carbon dioxide pollution from power plants fell, transportation
became the country's largest source of greenhouse gases. The Obama
Administration instituted fuel economy standards that required
automakers to improve their efficiency by 5 percent every year. The
Trump administration replaced that with just 1.5 percent
improvements annually.<br>
- -<b><br>
</b><b>What's working against Biden</b><br>
<br>
On his first day in office, Biden took direct aim at more than 100
Trump-era environmental policies, ordering federal agencies to
review and replace them. Many are critical to cutting emissions in
the U.S., like limiting emissions of methane from oil and gas wells,
a significant source of the potent heat-trapping gas.<br>
<br>
Still, that process is likely to take years. Many regulations, like
the federal fuel economy rules for cars and trucks, require a
lengthy rulemaking process with scientific analysis and public
comment. As a result, many of the Trump Administration's rules only
went into effect in his last year in office.<br>
<br>
Even after that, Biden's environmental rules are likely to be
challenged by lawsuits, potentially reaching the Supreme Court and
adding years to the process. Future administrations could also undo
those rules, just as the Trump Administration did.<br>
<br>
That has some looking to Congress for meaningful climate action,
since laws passed there have better sticking power and spending
power.<br>
<br>
"Ideally, we would have a federal clean electricity standard that
would require a steady reduction in emissions to get us to 100
percent clean power by 2035," says Lashof. "It's unclear whether the
votes will be there in Congress."<br>
<br>
A high-profile climate bill would test the Democrats' razor-thin
margin in the Senate, where support from party conservatives like
Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia would be hard won. Instead,
Democrats may look to add climate policies to other bills or pass
them through the arcane budget process.<br>
<br>
"There's a lot of acrimony that you can see in Congress and where
we're sitting right now, it's probably hard to see a big bipartisan
bill on climate change," says Greg Dotson of the University of
Oregon, who also worked on energy policy in the U.S. House of
Representatives. "But I don't think that means you stop trying in
Congress. Maybe it's tax policy. Maybe it's investment decisions.
Maybe it's budgetary issues."<br>
<br>
For now, the Biden Administration is focusing on executive actions,
like banning new oil and gas leases on federal lands and revoking
permits for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have carried
carbon-intensive oil from Canada.<br>
<br>
"Certainly we're going to look at congressional action," Gina
McCarthy, Biden's domestic climate advisor, told NPR. "But right
now, we can use the strength of the federal budget and our
procurement opportunities to send the right market signals on the
kind of technologies and products that we think we need and we know
we have available now that are cost-effective and that, again, grow
jobs."<br>
<br>
The Biden Administration's climate ambitions will become clearer
this spring when it releases new U.S. commitments for cutting
emissions under the Paris climate agreement. Biden announced the
U.S. would rejoin the accord on his first day in office, after the
Trump Administration pulled out and ceased engaging in the
international effort.<br>
<br>
Biden says the U.S. will come back to the table at a key moment,
when countries are making new commitments to cut emissions under the
Paris accord. Now, he has to convince them he can deliver.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/02/963014373/how-fast-will-biden-need-to-move-on-climate-really-really-fast">https://www.npr.org/2021/02/02/963014373/how-fast-will-biden-need-to-move-on-climate-really-really-fast</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[ethics by OXFAM]<br>
<b>The ‘1%’ are the main drivers of climate change, but it hits the
poor the hardest: Oxfam report</b><br>
Catherine Clifford - Jan 27 2021<br>
The richest of the rich are polluting the world and driving climate
change, while the poorest of the poor suffer the greatest
consequences, according to a new report published Monday by Oxfam
International. <br>
<br>
The richest 1% of the global population have used two times as much
carbon as the poorest 50% over the last 25 years, the nonprofit’s
report says.<br>
<br>
When fossil fuels (which are carbon-based) are burned in factories
or jets, for example, carbon dioxide is produced. Carbon dioxide
emissions trap heat in the earth’s atmosphere, resulting in the
warming of the planet. The burning of fossil fuels and processes
that generate carbon dioxide emissions are major drivers of economic
productivity and wealth. <br>
<br>
The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated inequality in almost every
way (billionaires’ wealth increased by $3.9 trillion between March
18 and December 31, while the number of people living on less than
$5.50 a day may have increased to as many as 500 million in 2020,
Oxfam says), and that extends to carbon consumption.<br>
<br>
For instance, ”[w]orldwide sales of private jets soared when
commercial travel was banned,” the Oxfam report says...<br>
“In country after country it is the richest who are least affected
by the pandemic, and are the quickest to see their fortunes recover.
They also remain the greatest emitters of carbon, and the greatest
drivers of climate breakdown.”<br>
<br>
Meanwhile, for poorer communities, and especially for women, climate
change will make life harder. <br>
<br>
“While no one is immune, the consequences will continue to be more
devastating for low and middle-income countries, which are most at
risk and face the highest climate-fuelled displacements, and within
these countries for women living in poverty, who typically bear
greater responsibility for tasks that are made more difficult by
climate change, including sourcing food and water,” the Oxfam report
says. <br>
<br>
The cleave in the global population — between those reaping the
rewards of carbon-producing processes and those paying the price —
needs to be a top priority for global governments, according to
Oxfam. “There is simply no possibility of any further delay,” the
report says.<br>
<b>What governments around the world should do</b><br>
“The fight against inequality and the fight for climate justice are
the same fight,” says the Oxfam report says. “The pandemic has shown
us that massive action by governments is possible in the face of a
crisis; we must see the same level of action to prevent climate
breakdown.” <br>
<br>
Governments need to implement policies that help reduce overall
demand for energy and accelerate the use of renewable energy,
according to Oxfam, which means ending subsidies to fossil fuel
industries, as well as forcing banks to end investment in fossil
fuels and ramp up investment in sustainable energy sources, the
report says.<br>
<br>
“Nowhere in the world should governments allow the construction of a
single new coal-fired power station, the public health and climate
costs of which are borne by the poorest and most marginalized
communities worldwide,” the report suggests.<br>
Further, says Oxfam, governments should implement scaled taxes on
carbon emissions: Luxury-related consumption that drives carbon
emissions — such as “frequent or business class flights” or
gas-guzzling large vehicles, according to the report — should be
taxed at a higher rate for the carbon consumption.<br>
<br>
The money from carbon taxes should then be directed to help poorer
communities that need social support programs and also towards those
poor who are especially vulnerable to increasingly frequent and
severe natural disasters, Oxfam says.<br>
<br>
Governments should also focus on retraining the poor and
marginalized in new, renewable energy or health and social care, the
report says.<br>
<br>
And as those transitions are made, governments should focus on
empowering diverse and representative leadership, according to
Oxfam. “Workers, women and marginalized communities should be at the
heart of decision-making processes at all levels — ensuring that
their voices are heard as governments plan the transition to an
economy that allows everyone to realize their human rights, within
the limits our planet can bear,” the report says.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/oxfam-report-the-global-wealthy-are-main-drivers-of-climate-change.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/oxfam-report-the-global-wealthy-are-main-drivers-of-climate-change.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[well]<br>
<b>Scientists in the Arctic's 'Ice Factory' Found a Worrying Sign of
Climate Change</b><br>
For 40 days last fall, an expedition collected samples that confirm
the thaw of the Arctic’s mysterious subsea permafrost.<br>
Becky Ferreira - February 2, 2021<br>
- -<br>
Last year, following a historic heatwave across Siberia, the Laptev
Sea did not freeze in October for the first time on record, and its
ice production in November was unusually “sluggish,” according to
NASA. <br>
- -<br>
“The reduction in the area of sea ice increases wave activity;
storms occur, which leads to an active mixing of water masses up to
a depth of 40-50 meters,” he explained. “All these parameters
accelerate the degradation of subsea permafrost and contribute to
the release of methane into the atmosphere that is soluble in
seawater, and methane contained in bottom sediments.”<br>
- -<br>
“There was no drilling during the expedition because the
permafrost's upper boundaries are located deeper than the bottom, so
it was not directly tested,” Chuvilin said. “Still, numerous
geophysical data were obtained that show the permafrost's 'roof' and
the contours of its distribution under the sea. This geophysical
data is being processed, and soon these new results will be
presented to the scientific community.”<br>
<br>
Given how little is known about subsea permafrost, it’s difficult to
estimate the volume of greenhouse gas this underwater layer will
belch out over the coming decades, as global temperatures continue
to rise. This type of permafrost is quite distinct from its
counterpart on land, so it will be important to understand its
unique composition, distribution, and behavior in order to model the
impact of its degradation on the global climate...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgzmnn/scientists-in-the-arctics-ice-factory-found-a-worrying-sign-of-climate-change">https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgzmnn/scientists-in-the-arctics-ice-factory-found-a-worrying-sign-of-climate-change</a><br>
- -<br>
[NASA report]<br>
<b>Sluggish Start for Arctic Sea Ice Freeze-Up</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147633/arctic_ssi_2020_anim.gif">https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147633/arctic_ssi_2020_anim.gif</a><br>
After the spring and summer melt season, the cap of frozen seawater
floating on top of the Arctic Ocean begins to refreeze. In 2020,
however, the annual freeze has been unusually slow.<br>
<br>
When Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum in September 2020, it
was one of the lowest extents of the satellite record—second only to
the record low in September 2012. But unlike 2012, the ocean did not
see its typical rate of refreezing in 2020. As a result, the sea ice
extent for this October was the lowest on record for any October.
Ice growth picked up the pace at the start of November but then
slowed again, leaving plenty of open water in the Barents and Kara
seas at the start of December.<br>
<br>
According to the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC),
October 2020 was “the largest departure from average conditions seen
in any month thus far in the satellite record.” Scientists have used
satellites to continuously measure sea ice since 1979. The chart
above shows how the extent of sea ice has progressed in 2020. For
context, ice extents for 2012 (the record low extent) and 2016
(another year with a slow refreeze) are also charted...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147633/arctic_ssi_2020_october.jpg">https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147633/arctic_ssi_2020_october.jpg</a><br>
The low ice conditions are also apparent in the map above, which
shows the average sea ice extent—defined as the total area in which
the ice concentration is at least 15 percent—for October 2020. The
ice extent (white) on that day measured 5.28 million square
kilometers (2.04 million square miles). That’s 3.07 million square
kilometers (1.19 million square miles) lower than the 1981-2010
average extent for the same month (yellow line).<br>
<br>
Regional variations in water temperatures and weather can affect the
amount of sea ice in different parts of the Arctic. In 2020, ocean
currents helped flush ice out from the Russian Arctic coast. An
intense summer storm also parked over the Arctic Ocean, similar to
the storm that contributed to the record low sea ice minimum in
2012.<br>
<br>
But it was the early ice retreat amid warm Arctic air temperatures
that set the stage for the slow freeze-up in 2020. Starting in May,
warm air over Siberia provoked rapid melting in the East Siberian
and Laptev Seas. With large expanses of dark, ice-free water exposed
to the warming sunlight, the ocean could gain more heat than usual
over the course of the summer, which reinforced melting. Until that
heat escaped to the atmosphere, sea ice could not reform...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147633/arctic_merra2_202010.png">https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147633/arctic_merra2_202010.png</a><br>
The temperature map above shows that anomalously warm air
temperatures persisted into October. Air temperatures across the
central and western Arctic Ocean, and along the Siberian Arctic
coast, remained far above average for the month.<br>
<br>
The pace of ice growth accelerated a bit through November 2020. But
the rebound was not enough to bring the extent back to normal
levels. The ice extent for November 2020 was measured as the
second-lowest of any November on record.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147633/sluggish-start-for-arctic-sea-ice-freeze-up">https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147633/sluggish-start-for-arctic-sea-ice-freeze-up</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Fast Company, the money is speaking, addressing global warming]<br>
<b>The next global crisis is already here—and it’s even worse than
COVID</b><br>
Imagine the horrors of coronavirus, compounded and made permanent.
That’s climate change. Politicians who care about the future (ours
and theirs) can’t wait to act<br>
BRADLEY TUSK --- 2-1-21<br>
<br>
If you ask Americans what they care about, the results aren’t too
surprising. Over decades of opinion polling, the same combination of
issues tend to occupy the most mindshare: jobs, education, crime,
health care. The order shifts with the ebbs and flows of the
economy, but it’s generally stable.<br>
<br>
Of course, we weren’t expecting the typical answers when my
consulting firm (which is helping to run Andrew Yang’s campaign for
mayor) recently polled 800 likely voters in New York City. Nor were
we surprised by the top issue chosen by a whopping 45% of
respondents: COVID-19. One year ago, hardly anyone knew what
coronavirus was. Today, it’s all that most voters care about. The
next two concerns that appeared on our survey—crime (11%) and racial
and social justice (8%)—weren’t even close.<br>
<br>
The poll helps to explain what New Yorkers are looking for in their
next mayor. But it also contains lessons for future politicians.
When a crisis arrives, voters want something different from the
usual political norms. And the mother of all crises is still ahead
of us.<br>
<br>
I’m not talking about another pandemic, although that remains a
risk. I’m talking about climate change. A decade from now, COVID-19
will be a painful, distant memory, and a new, harsh reality will be
setting in. In the west, raging wildfires and smoke-filled days. In
the east, massive hurricanes and flooding shorelines. In some parts
of the world, this new reality will mean you can’t go outside during
certain times of day, because the heat is too extreme. In others, it
will mean daily water restrictions because of droughts.<br>
<br>
Imagine the horrors of coronavirus, compounded and made permanent.
There’s no vaccine for climate change. The disease may be
manageable, but it’s forever.<br>
<br>
If voters right now are demanding that their politicians solve the
coronavirus crisis, how do we think they’re going to react when the
ravages of climate change arrive? They’re not going to care that it
was too hard politically to pass a carbon tax or to invest in carbon
capture technology when there was still time. They’re not going to
remember that they didn’t want gas to cost more, flights to cost
more, their electric bill to cost more. They’re just going to see
that life as they know it has changed for the worse, and they’re
going to be out for blood.<br>
<br>
The trouble with climate change is that it’s slow, occurring over
generations. In between the “once in a century” disasters that now
happen every few years, it’s possible to forget that the ice caps
are melting.<br>
<br>
The trouble with most politicians is that they only care about the
present. In my twenty-five years of experience in city, state, and
federal government, and in running political campaigns, I’ve learned
that 99% of elected officials just want to stay in office. They’re
willing to be flexible on just about any of their views or positions
as long as it keeps them around. That strategy works in normal
times. But the world we’re living in today is anything but normal.<br>
<br>
The smart politician, the one who’s in it for the long haul,
understands that you can’t just respond to a crisis as it happens.
That’s what mediocre politicians do. The smart politician looks
around the corner and gets ahead of it.<br>
<br>
In this case, that means leading on climate change. Failure to do so
puts their political careers at risk (in addition to the planet).
Their lack of action — which means passing bills and doing things,
not just holding press conferences and sending tweets — writes the
future campaign ads against them.<br>
<br>
COVID-19 is a glimpse into the future for today’s politicians, and
it should be extremely sobering. It won’t matter whose fault it is.
It won’t matter what threats you were facing from the opposition at
the time. All that matters is if you were perceptive and proactive
enough to recognize all of the ways your constituents’ lives were
about to change for the worse and you did something about it.<br>
<br>
Will taking action now anger some lobbying groups and potentially
make you more vulnerable in a primary (especially for Republicans)?
Probably. But you can manage anger over a handful of votes. You
can’t triage a climate apocalypse.<br>
<br>
My 14-year old daughter already blames everyone over the age of 25
for destroying her future. Wait till she can vote. Now add in the
tens of millions of Gen Z-ers just like her. Politicians: the ways
life has already changed because of coronavirus are a very clear
sign of what’s to come. Ignore it at your peril.<br>
<br>
Bradley Tusk is a venture capitalist, writer, philanthropist, and
political strategist. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90599873/the-next-global-crisis-is-already-here-and-its-even-worse-than-covid">https://www.fastcompany.com/90599873/the-next-global-crisis-is-already-here-and-its-even-worse-than-covid</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Opinion from England]<br>
<b>The Guardian view on climate progress: the need for speed</b><br>
Editorial<br>
The transformation of the US government’s stance on the environment
is hugely significant. Now the global green recovery must start<br>
<br>
The year ahead is an absolutely crucial one in the struggle to keep
global heating below 1.5C or 2C, above which the UN has warned of
chaos. John Kerry, who is President Joe Biden’s climate envoy, told
the BBC that the conference of the parties (Cop26) due to take place
in Glasgow in November is the “last best chance the world has … to
do what science is telling us we need to do”. Important as the talks
are, the decisions taken between now and then are just as
significant.<br>
<br>
Last year saw an unprecedented drop of 7% in greenhouse gas
emissions, due to Covid, but a rebound is expected. It is here that
attention must now be focused. As governments around the world pump
money into economies ravaged by the pandemic, a return to business
as usual would be catastrophic. Research carried out after the 2008
financial crash showed that the recovery then was about 16% green,
with the majority of stimulus spending directed at carbon-intensive
infrastructure and activities. This time, green investment must be
more than an add-on. Governments must proactively channel public
funds towards renewable energy, green transport infrastructure, home
insulation – and away from fossil fuels, especially coal.<br>
<br>
Most people agree on the direction of travel. Last week, the largest
ever opinion poll on climate change revealed that two-thirds of
those questioned, in 50 countries, believe heating caused by
greenhouse gas emissions is a “global emergency”. Scientists say the
world is hotter than it has been for 12,000 years. Climate change
has already pushed more than 18 million people in South Asian
countries to migrate. In January last year, a landmark ruling by a
UN committee said it would be illegal for governments to return
people to countries where their lives might be threatened by the
climate crisis.<br>
<br>
The last UN climate conference, in 2019, ended in despair. Since
then, governments and businesses have made new pledges, including
China’s announcement of a net zero target of 2060. Now the US,
derailed for four years by the nihilist denialism of Donald Trump,
is back on board. The executive orders signed last week by Mr Biden,
including a promise to end fossil-fuel activity on government land
and turn the entire federal vehicle fleet electric, were hugely
significant.<br>
<br>
The world cannot afford to wait until November. Net zero targets
provide a destination. But action can no longer be deferred. The
next decade, as Mr Kerry acknowledged, is crucial. The US must
present a plan for emissions reductions by 2030, as set out in the
Paris climate deal, without delay. The summit being convened by Mr
Biden in April must be more than a warm-up for November;
decarbonisation projects, bringing jobs with them, need to start
now.<br>
<br>
The global mood surrounding climate prospects has lifted
immeasurably. Statements from the US, and other countries including
Japan and South Korea, are all steps in the right direction. But
already, the rest of the world lags behind the EU, which a Guardian
analysis last year showed is the green frontrunner in the way its
post-pandemic stimulus spending has been designed. Delays and
prevarications on climate action thus far mean that change must now
happen very fast. The most useful move that Mr Biden could now make
would be to announce that April’s talks will be the launch pad for a
global green recovery. This is no time to sit back. Instead, the
world must press on, and speed up.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/the-guardian-view-on-climate-progress-the-need-for-speed">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/the-guardian-view-on-climate-progress-the-need-for-speed</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Great audio podcasts]<br>
<b>Outrage + Optimism</b><br>
<b>86. The Scientific Case for The Race to Zero with Johan Rockström</b><br>
With a renewed sense of optimism felt around the world with the
inauguration of President Joe Biden in the United States this month,
our collective sigh of relief is quickly met with the sobering
reality of the moment - Nature’s systems are collapsing and we are
running out of time to stop irreversible changes to our planet.<br>
<br>
The science is clear. If we do not rapidly cut global greenhouse gas
emissions by at least 50% in 2030, we will push our Earth beyond the
‘planetary boundaries’ that have sustained life for millions upon
millions of years.<br>
<br>
So what exactly are these ‘planetary boundaries’ we are dangerously
approaching, and what are the science-based solutions to achieve our
2030 emissions target? Is there hope for our future? Our guest this
week, Johan Rockström, is here to present the sobering, scientific
case for why science demands a united global commitment for the race
to zero.<br>
<br>
Johan Rockström is an internationally recognised scientist and
director of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research. He is
best known f<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://outrageandoptimism.libsyn.com/86-the-scientific-case-for-the-race-to-zero-with-johan-rockstrm">https://outrageandoptimism.libsyn.com/86-the-scientific-case-for-the-race-to-zero-with-johan-rockstrm</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[We're gonna need a bigger tide chart]<br>
<b>Sea Levels Are Rising Faster Than Most Pessimistic Forecasts</b><br>
New research indicates economies have to emit even less carbon than
budgeted to keep oceans from rising.<br>
By Jonathan Tirone<br>
February 1, 2021, 9:00 PM PST<br>
Climate change is causing oceans to rise quicker than scientists’
most pessimistic forecasts, resulting in earlier flood risks to
coastal economies already struggling to adapt. <br>
The revised estimates published Tuesday in Ocean Science impact the
two-fifths of the Earth’s population who live near coastlines.
Insured property worth trillions of dollars could face even greater
danger from floods, superstorms and tidal surges. The research
suggests that countries will have to rein in their greenhouse gas
emissions even more than expected to keep sea levels in check. <br>
<br>
“It means our carbon budget is even more depleted,” said Aslak
Grinsted, a geophysicist at the University of Copenhagen who
co-authored the research. Economies need to slash an additional 200
billion metric tons of carbon — equivalent to about five years of
global emissions — to remain within the thresholds set by previous
forecasts, he said. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/sea-levels-are-rising-faster-than-most-pessimistic-forecasts">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/sea-levels-are-rising-faster-than-most-pessimistic-forecasts</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Classic academic talk from MIT-OPEN-Courseware 2020]<br>
<b>Climate 101 Live</b><br>
Jun 1, 2020<br>
MIT OpenCourseWare<br>
MIT RES.ENV-003 EarthDNA's Climate 101, Fall 2019<br>
Instructor: Brandon Leshchinskiy, MIT students<br>
View the complete course: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://ocw.mit.edu/RES-ENV-003F19">https://ocw.mit.edu/RES-ENV-003F19</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
<b>EarthDNA's Climate 101</b><br>
Course Description<br>
The Climate 101 presentation was developed by Brandon Leshchinskiy
in collaboration with Professor Dava Newman, MIT Portugal, and
EarthDNA in an effort to mobilize young people as educators on the
issue of climate change. The presentation addresses not only the
science but also the economics and civics of climate change,
incorporating a negotiation activity that brings key concepts to
life.<br>
<br>
This resource includes the slides and instructions for the
presentation, along with an introductory video from Prof. Newman, a
video of Leshchinskiy actually delivering the presentation to a
classroom full of students, and extensive supporting materials that
will help users to become climate ambassadors and deliver the
Climate 101 presentation themselves.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://ocw.mit.edu/resources/res-env-003-earthdnas-climate-101-fall-2019/videos/">https://ocw.mit.edu/resources/res-env-003-earthdnas-climate-101-fall-2019/videos/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6Ksr5sJ0sM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6Ksr5sJ0sM</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[distressing conjecture by the Council on Strategic RIsk]<br>
<b>Is Russia Attempting to Overturn the Global Order?</b><br>
Feb 2, 2021<br>
Council on Strategic Risks (CSR)<br>
As part of a new series of explainer videos, the Council on
Strategic Risks (CSR) posed a series of questions to leading
national security experts about the complex linkages between climate
change, nuclear energy, nuclear weapons proliferation, and the
global order for Russia. Together, their diverse answers may help us
to better understand complexity across existential threats. This is
the full version of the video.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQVIkVNGJzE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQVIkVNGJzE</a><br>
- -<br>
[source material]<br>
<b>Council on Strategic Risks</b><br>
Anticipating, Analyzing, and Addressing Systemic Risks<br>
<br>
The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) is dedicated to anticipating,
analyzing and addressing core systemic risks to security in the 21st
century, with special examination of the ways in which these risks
intersect and exacerbate one another.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/">https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/</a><br>
- -<br>
[Web site]<br>
<b>The Center for Climate & Security</b><br>
The Center for Climate and Security (CCS) is a non-partisan
institute of The Council on Strategic Risks with a team and
distinguished Advisory Board of security and military experts. CCS
envisions a climate-resilient world which recognizes that climate
change threats to security are significant and unprecedented, and
acts to address those threats in a manner that is commensurate to
their scale, consequence and probability. To further this goal, CCS
facilitates policy development processes and dialogues, provides
analysis, conducts research, communicates to the public, and acts as
a resource hub in the climate and security field. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climateandsecurity.org/">https://climateandsecurity.org/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
February 3, 2011 </b></font><br>
<br>
President Obama discusses his administration's clean energy efforts
at Penn State University.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/yUE0hjtiiSM">http://youtu.be/yUE0hjtiiSM</a> <br>
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/<br>
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