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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>February 10, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[20 earlier, 8 longer]<br>
<b>Climate change has ‘worsened’ North America’s pollen season</b><br>
Ayesha Tandon, Carbon Brief<br>
The North American pollen season is now starting 20 days earlier and
lasting eight days longer than it did in 1980, according to a new
study. Climate change is responsible for roughly half of these
changes, the authors tell Carbon Brief.<br>
<br>
The pollen season in North America is starting earlier and lasting
longer than it did four decades ago, a new study says.<br>
<br>
The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences (PNAS), concludes that the North American pollen
season is now starting 20 days earlier and lasting eight days longer
than in 1990. Climate change is responsible for roughly half of
these changes, the study says.<br>
<br>
The study also finds that climate change is a “significant
contributor” to a 21% increase in pollen levels since 1990. The
authors note that the increase in tree pollen levels is bigger than
the increase in either grass or weed pollen.<br>
<br>
“Climate change is already worsening pollen seasons,” the lead
author of the study tells Carbon Brief, adding that this is “bad
news for people with respiratory health problems”.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-has-worsened-north-americas-pollen-season">https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-has-worsened-north-americas-pollen-season</a><br>
<p>- - </p>
[source material]<br>
<b>Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen
seasons</b><br>
PNAS February 16, 2021 118 (7) e2013284118; <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013284118">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013284118</a><br>
Edited by Jonathan Alan Patz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI,
and accepted by Editorial Board Member Hans J. Schellnhuber December
18, 2020 <br>
<br>
<b>Significance</b><br>
Human-caused climate change could impact respiratory health,
including asthma and allergies, through temperature-driven increases
in airborne pollen, but the long-term continental pollen trends and
role of climate change in pollen patterns are not well-understood.
We measure pollen trends across North America from 1990 to 2018 and
find increases in pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons.
We use an ensemble of climate models to test the role of climate
change and find that it is the dominant driver of changes in pollen
season length and a significant contributor to increasing pollen
concentrations. Our results indicate that human-caused climate
change has already worsened North American pollen seasons, and
climate-driven pollen trends are likely to further exacerbate
respiratory health impacts in coming decades.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Abstract</b><br>
Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and
anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and
extend pollen seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate
that pollen concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal
detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate
change in continental pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we
use long-term pollen data from 60 North American stations from 1990
to 2018, spanning 821 site-years of data, and Earth system model
simulations to quantify the role of human-caused climate change in
continental patterns in pollen concentrations. We find widespread
advances and lengthening of pollen seasons (+20 d) and increases in
pollen concentrations (+21%) across North America, which are
strongly coupled to observed warming. Human forcing of the climate
system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 19–84%) of the trend
in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4–14%) of the trend in pollen
concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate change
has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades
with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118">https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[from Harvard scientists]<br>
<b>Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought</b><br>
Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for more than 8 million people
worldwide in 2018<br>
By Leah Burrows | Press contact<br>
February 9, 2021<br>
<br>
More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution,
significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to
new research from Harvard University, in collaboration with the
University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University
College London. Researchers estimated that exposure to particulate
matter from fossil fuel emissions accounted for 18 percent of total
global deaths in 2018 — a little less than 1 out of 5.<br>
<br>
Regions with the highest concentrations of fossil fuel-related air
pollution — including Eastern North America, Europe, and South-East
Asia — have the highest rates of mortality, according to the study
published in the journal Environmental Research.<br>
<br>
The study greatly increases estimates of the numbers killed by air
pollution. The most recent Global Burden of Disease Study, the
largest and most comprehensive study on the causes of global
mortality, put the total number of global deaths from all outdoor
airborne particulate matter — including dust and smoke from
wildfires and agricultural burns — at 4.2 million. <br>
<br>
The findings underscore the detrimental impact of fossil fuels on
global health.<br>
<br>
How did the researchers arrive at such a high number of
fossil-fuel-caused deaths?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
[Source materials]<br>
<b>Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated
by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem</b><br>
Highlights<br>
<blockquote>Fossil fuel combustion emits particulate matter (PM2.5)
harmful to public health.<br>
<br>
We use a re-evaluated concentration-response function (CRF).<br>
<br>
We estimate 10.2 million global excess deaths in 2012 due to PM2.5
from this source.<br>
<br>
62% of deaths are in China (3.9 million) and India (2.5 million).<br>
<br>
Our estimate is more than double the GBD reports, due to the
updated CRF we use.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
The burning of fossil fuels – especially coal, petrol, and diesel –
is a major source of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and a
key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease.
Previous risk assessments have examined the health response to total
PM2.5, not just PM2.5 from fossil fuel combustion, and have used a
concentration-response function with limited support from the
literature and data at both high and low concentrations. This
assessment examines mortality associated with PM2.5 from only fossil
fuel combustion, making use of a recent meta-analysis of newer
studies with a wider range of exposure. We also estimated mortality
due to lower respiratory infections (LRI) among children under the
age of five in the Americas and Europe, regions for which we have
reliable data on the relative risk of this health outcome from PM2.5
exposure. We used the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate
global exposure levels to fossil-fuel related PM2.5 in 2012.
Relative risks of mortality were modeled using functions that link
long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality, incorporating
nonlinearity in the concentration response. We estimate a global
total of 10.2 (95% CI: -47.1 to 17.0) million premature deaths
annually attributable to the fossil-fuel component of PM2.5. The
greatest mortality impact is estimated over regions with substantial
fossil fuel related PM2.5, notably China (3.9 million), India (2.5
million) and parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia. The
estimate for China predates substantial decline in fossil fuel
emissions and decreases to 2.4 million premature deaths due to 43.7%
reduction in fossil fuel PM2.5 from 2012 to 2018 bringing the global
total to 8.7 (95% CI: -1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths. We
also estimated excess annual deaths due to LRI in children (0-4
years old) of 876 in North America, 747 in South America, and 605 in
Europe. This study demonstrates that the fossil fuel component of
PM2.5 contributes a large mortality burden. The steeper
concentration-response function slope at lower concentrations leads
to larger estimates than previously found in Europe and North
America, and the slower drop-off in slope at higher concentrations
results in larger estimates in Asia. Fossil fuel combustion can be
more readily controlled than other sources and precursors of PM2.5
such as dust or wildfire smoke, so this is a clear message to
policymakers and stakeholders to further incentivize a shift to
clean sources of energy.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121000487">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121000487</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[to ignore imperils]<br>
<b>Before Himalayan Flood, India Ignored Warnings of Development
Risks</b><br>
Long before a deadly flood hit two hydroelectric dams, scientists
warned repeatedly that such projects were dangerous in a fragile
region made more so by global warming.<br>
<br>
By Mujib Mashal and Hari Kumar<br>
Feb. 9, 2021<br>
NEW DELHI — Long before the floods came, washing away hundreds of
people and wiping out newly constructed dams and bridges, the
warning signs were clear.<br>
<br>
The Himalayas have been warming at an alarming rate for years,
melting ice long trapped in glaciers, soil and rocks, elevating the
risk of devastating floods and landslides, scientists warned. Nearby
populations were vulnerable, they said, and the region’s ecosystem
had become too fragile for large development projects.<br>
<br>
But the Indian government overrode the objections of experts and the
protests of local residents to blast rocks and build hydroelectric
power projects in volatile areas like the one in the northern state
of Uttarakhand, where disaster struck.<br>
<br>
Officials said Monday that bodies of 26 victims had been recovered
while the search proceeded for nearly 200 missing people. On Sunday
a surge of water and debris went roaring down the steep mountain
valleys of the Rishiganga river, erasing everything in its path.
Most of the victims were workers on the power project...<br>
<br>
Villagers said the authorities overseeing the expensive development
projects had not prepared them for what was to come, giving a false
sense of confidence that nothing was going to happen.<br>
<br>
“There was no program or training in the village about disaster
management by the government,” said Bhawan Singh Rana, head of the
Raini village, hit by some of the worst damage. “Our village is on a
rock, and we fear that it may slide anytime.”<br>
<br>
Security forces focused on one tunnel where they said 30 people were
trapped. Food was airdropped to about 13 villages where the roads
have been cut off, with roughly 2,500 people trapped...<br>
- -<br>
The area was the site of a well-known environmental protest against
deforestation in the 1970s. Protesters, a large number of them
women, would hug trees to stop loggers from cutting them, in a
movement that became known as “chipko,” or embrace.<br>
<br>
Mr. Rana said local residents also held protests against
construction of the Rishiganga power project, which began generating
electricity last year, and they even filed court cases, but to no
avail. They feared that the blasting of rocks would cause deadly
landslides.<br>
<br>
“We used to hear blasting and see the rocks shift,” he said. “When
this project was under construction, half of our village slid. We
requested to be shifted from here to another place. The government
said they would do it, but it never happened.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/world/asia/india-flood-ignored-warnings.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/world/asia/india-flood-ignored-warnings.html</a><br>
<br>
<p> <br>
</p>
[wise opinions] <br>
<b>Joe Biden should declare a climate emergency</b><br>
A new bill introduced by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
& Earl Blumenauer would require the president to invoke
emergency powers to tackle the climate crisis.<br>
Eric Holthaus - Feb 7<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/joe-biden-should-declare-a-climate">https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/joe-biden-should-declare-a-climate</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<b>Humor?</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/dinoman_j/status/1358049815909785600">https://twitter.com/dinoman_j/status/1358049815909785600</a><br>
more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://twitter.com/dinoman_j">https://twitter.com/dinoman_j</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[“Political reality must be grounded in physical reality or it’s
completely useless.” - Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber]<br>
<b>RESET.21 | MATTERS OF FACTS: THE SCIENCE OF GETTING IT RIGHT ON
CLIMATE</b><br>
Feb 3, 2021<br>
National Climate Emergency Summit<br>
How much do the scientific facts really matter in addressing the
climate emergency? <br>
<br>
Do we already know enough to set the right goals and timeframes for
action, and is the climate advocacy movement on the right track to
achieve climate justice and global protection? <br>
<br>
Resistance to closer analysis of the climate reality can lead to a
dangerous underestimation of the problem and jeopardise the
formation of sound strategies. Deep-seated fears about the extent of
the crisis, and concerns about complex solutions, can fuel serious
doubts about our ability to respond in time. Yet, to succeed we need
to reexamine the facts with fresh rigor and unrestrained honesty to
form action at a level that will give us our best chance of local
and global protection.<br>
<br>
Join some of the world’s leading climate scientists and expert
analysts for a deep dive into the depths of major impacts, risks,
and actions that will shape climate advocacy in the decade ahead.<br>
<blockquote> Sir David King – Former Chief Scientific Adviser for
the United Kingdom<br>
David Spratt – Research Director at Breakthrough National Centre
For Climate Restoration<br>
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick – Climate Scientist, UNSW Sydney<br>
Moderated by Jo Chandler – Science Writer & Journalist<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V8pTQnCp40&feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V8pTQnCp40&feature=youtu.be</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[We are what we eat]<br>
<b>Why Food is Key! - Episode 19: Vegan World 2026! - The Moonshot
of Our Generation</b><br>
Feb 9, 2021<br>
Sailesh Rao<br>
In this episode, we are joined by Hemal Randerwala of GoDharmic,
Sarah Sehgal, Jamen Shively and others from Food Healers, who are
all working on providing healthy, immune-boosting Vegan food to
those in need around the world. Engineering a transformation in our
food system is key to solving many of our ecological and social
challenges and our guests are converging from around the world to
make this happen on the ground.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyKoKgwE-8w">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyKoKgwE-8w</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[video discussion]<br>
<b>Timothea Goddard on Mindfulness Meets Collapse - Living in the
Time of Dying Interview Series</b><br>
Jan 30, 2021<br>
Living in the Time of Dying<br>
Mindfulness is way more than just a way to "relax" or "feel better".
Timothea Goddard shares with us her journey into her deep
recognition of climate breakdown and societal collapse and talks us
through some ways to meet the raw edge of this and our human
experience across the board. <br>
<br>
Timothea Goddard heads an Australia wide Mindfulness Based Stress
Reduction organisation called Open Ground as well as being a
therapist for over 30 years. She was featured on ABC Catalyst in
2019.<br>
<br>
Visit our website for more information:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com">https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com</a>
<p><br>
<br>
</p>
<br>
[More Great White Sharks in California coast]<br>
<b>North Pacific warming shifts the juvenile range of a marine apex
predator</b><br>
Kisei R. Tanaka, Kyle S. Van Houtan, Eric Mailander, Beatriz S.
Dias, Carol Galginaitis, John O’Sullivan, Christopher G. Lowe &
Salvador J. Jorgensen <br>
Nature Scientific Reports volume 11, Article number: 3373 (2021) <br>
Abstract<br>
<blockquote>During the 2014–2016 North Pacific marine heatwave,
unprecedented sightings of juvenile white sharks (Carcharodon
carcharias) emerged in central California. These records
contradicted the species established life history, where juveniles
remain in warmer waters in the southern California Current. This
spatial shift is significant as it creates potential conflicts
with commercial fisheries, protected species conservation, and
public safety concerns. Here, we integrate community science,
photogrammetry, biologging, and mesoscale climate data to describe
and explain this phenomenon. We find a dramatic increase in white
sharks from 2014 to 2019 in Monterey Bay that was overwhelmingly
comprised of juvenile sharks < 2.5 m in total body length.
Next, we derived thermal preferences from 22 million tag
measurements of 14 juvenile sharks and use this to map the cold
limit of their range. Consistent with historical records, the
position of this cold edge averaged 34° N from 1982 to 2013 but
jumped to 38.5° during the 2014–2016 marine heat wave. In addition
to a poleward shift, thermally suitable habitat for juvenile
sharks declined 223.2 km2 year−1 from 1982 to 2019 and was lowest
in 2015 at the peak of the heatwave. In addition to advancing the
adaptive management of this apex marine predator, we discuss this
opportunity to engage public on climate change through marine
megafauna.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82424-9">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82424-9</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
February 10, 2007 </b></font><br>
<p>February 10, 2007: <br>
Announcing his bid for the White House, Illinois Senator Barack
Obama declares, "Let us be the generation that finally frees
America from the tyranny of oil."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://youtu.be/1xFCPn84mK0">http://youtu.be/1xFCPn84mK0</a></p>
<p> <br>
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