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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>February 11, 2021</b></font></i> <br>
</p>
[Earthquakes and Climate Change threaten California dams]<br>
<b>California’s aging dams face new perils, 50 years after Sylmar
quake crisis</b><br>
It was a harrowing vision of the vulnerability of aging California
dams — crews laboring feverishly to sandbag and drain the lower San
Fernando Reservoir, as billions of gallons of Los Angeles drinking
water lapped at the edge of a crumbling, earthquake-damaged
embankment that threatened catastrophe on the neighborhoods below.<br>
<br>
Although the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and the near failure of
the Lower Van Norman Dam have given rise to construction
improvements — the much newer Los Angeles Dam survived an equivalent
shaking in the 1994 Northridge quake — the overwhelming majority of
California dams are decades past their design life span.<br>
<br>
And while earthquakes still loom as the greatest threat to
California’s massive collection of dams, experts warn that these
aging structures will be challenged further by a new and emerging
hazard: “whiplashing shifts” in extreme weather due to climate
change.<br>
<br>
“The biggest issue facing dam safety in California is aging
infrastructure and lack of money to fund repairs and retrofits of
dams,” said Sharon K. Tapia, who leads the Division of Safety of
Dams at the California Department of Water Resources. “Many older
dams were built using construction methods considered outdated by
today’s standards.”..<br>
- -<br>
One of California’s worst disasters was the collapse of the St.
Francis Dam in northern Los Angeles County on March 12, 1928. Its
failure prompted the creation of the California Dam Safety Program.<br>
<br>
A muddy wall of water as high as 70 feet carved a 70-mile path of
destruction in a 5½-hour rampage from San Francisquito Canyon to the
Pacific Ocean near Oxnard, killing more than 450 people.<br>
- -<br>
On Feb. 7, 2017, the concrete spillway of the 700-foot-tall dam fell
apart during the release of water after heavy rains.<br>
<br>
The erosion of its emergency spillway, which was basically a hill of
dirt that federal engineers believed would rarely, if ever, be used,
triggered the evacuation of more than 180,000 people.<br>
<br>
The head of the California Water Resources Department, which
operates the dam, was removed after an independent probe found the
failure was the result of a lax safety culture.<br>
<br>
“Emerging data of massive simulations of flooding suggest that
existing flood control systems are a ticking time bomb,” said Brett
Sanders, a professor of civil engineering at UC Irvine. “Southern
California, in particular, is completely unprepared to deal with the
consequences.”<br>
<br>
“Once the water goes outside of the structures intended to rein it
in, it will go everywhere,” he said, “and there will be little time
to get out of its way.”<br>
<br>
“Unfortunately, much of the ongoing research is focused on climate
change and engineering strategies,” he added. “We ought to start
spending more time studying the potential catastrophic risks to
working-class communities in the floodplains.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-02-10/earthquakes-climate-change-threaten-california-dams">https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-02-10/earthquakes-climate-change-threaten-california-dams</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[climate heat, ice, water, gravity then lawyers]<br>
<b>A looming climate disaster threatens the lives of 6,000 Peruvians</b><br>
The deadly Lake Palcacocha might burst through its dam.<br>
By Philip Kiefer - Feb 9, 2021<br>
For the past 25 years, Lake Palcacocha, perched above the Peruvian
city of Huaraz high in the Andes, has been filling up with water. It
sits just at the foot of a glacier, and as the glacier has
retreated, the lake has flooded to six times its 1995 levels. It now
covers an area the size of about 200 football fields and is nearly
300 feet deep in some places.<br>
<br>
The lake is held back by a rim of glacial debris, reinforced by
manmade structures. “You’ve got a very precarious situation,” says
Gerard Roe, a glaciologist at the University of Washington. “Were an
avalanche or rockslide to land in this lake, it would create a
tsunami-like wave that would breach the boundary, and send a torrent
of water down the valley.” Within an hour, it would hit the city as
a mass of debris.<br>
<br>
The last time such a flood occurred, in 1941, 1,800 people died. A
similar incident in the present-day city could kill 6,000.<br>
<br>
Now, research published in Nature Geoscience finds that the risk to
all of those lives are directly attributable to climate change. That
research is the latest step in the growing field of climate change
attribution science, which connects day-to-day events like heat
waves, floods, and superstorms to human-caused warming...<br>
- -<br>
To establish that climate change had directly caused the flood risk,
the researchers had to link together three points. First, they
needed to show exactly how much anthropogenic warming had shifted
temperatures around Lake Palcacocha. Second, they had to prove that
the glacier’s retreat was in fact due to those temperature changes.
Finally, the flood risk at the lake had to be directly linked to
that melting ice.<br>
<br>
That relied in part on research by Roe and his colleagues at the
University of Washington, who had recently developed a method for
attributing glacial melts to climate change. “Glaciers are icons in
the public and scientific imagination,” Roe says. “So it was one of
those things that everybody knew, but hadn’t been officially
demonstrated in the literature.”<br>
<br>
“What we found was that in the absence of climate change, the
observed retreat of the glacier would not have been possible,”
Stuart-Smith says. Therefore, climate change was directly
responsible for the threat that meltwater posed to the city.<br>
<br>
Among the most surprising results, Roe says, is that human-induced
climate change not only elevated the future risk of floods from Lake
Palcacocha—it was responsible for the flooding in 1941. “That’s
shockingly early in most people’s view of when anthropogenic climate
change became an issue.”<br>
<br>
“Glaciers end up being purer signals of climate change than …
thermometers or pressure gauges,” Roe says, and humans have been
warming the planet since the 1850s. “Therefore, the signal of
climate change showed up quite early relative to other things we
think about more commonly, like the temperature record.”<br>
<br>
Although the research was conducted independently, it’s likely to
have important implications for the suit against RWE.<br>
<br>
The study provides firmer ground for climate litigation, says Aisha
Saad, a fellow at Harvard Law School’s Program on Corporate
Governance. (She collaborates with Stuart-Smith on other projects,
but was not involved in the research.) That’s in part because the
findings establish evidence in a way that the legal system can
interpret.<br>
<br>
“It could be it that the scientific evidence exists to support a
legal claim,” she says “But it’s not being framed in that way.”<br>
<br>
In past civil liability cases, especially those concerning
cigarettes and tobacco, courts and scientists have figured out how
to develop language in common. As climate lawsuits proceed across
the United States and across the world, Saad says there are
glimmerings of that emerging. One district court judge, William
Alsup, invited climate scientists to give him a tutorial as he
prepared for two suits filed by California cities against
petrochemical companies. (He ended up ruling against the cities,
although the case is still in appeals.)<br>
<br>
Stuart-Smith has been involved in other research that began
establishing a direct link between climate and human health,
including a December paper in Health Affairs that outlined
strategies for attributing heat wave deaths and hospitalizations,
among other things, to climate change. The scientific tools exist,
he says, to begin connecting emissions not only to physical events,
but all the way through to the illness and death that those events
can cause.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/climate-chane-lake-palcacocha-peru/">https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/climate-chane-lake-palcacocha-peru/</a><br>
- -<br>
[maps google]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/Lake+Palcacocha/@-9.4001192,-77.3875112,5471m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x91a91757c9b7db5d:0x2608dd744b3cb661!8m2!3d-9.396944!4d-77.379722">https://www.google.com/maps/place/Lake+Palcacocha/@-9.4001192,-77.3875112,5471m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x91a91757c9b7db5d:0x2608dd744b3cb661!8m2!3d-9.396944!4d-77.379722</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Interview in NYT]<br>
THE EZRA KLEIN SHOW<br>
<b>Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Elizabeth Kolbert About
Geoengineering</b><br>
Transcript for the Feb. 9 episode of “The Ezra Klein Show.”<br>
Feb. 9, 2021<br>
Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation
about something that matters, like today’s episode about climate
change and geoengineering with Elizabeth Kolbert. Listen and
subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.<br>
<br>
Transcripts of our episodes are made available as soon as possible.
They are not fully edited for grammar or spelling. <br>
<br>
EZRA KLEIN: I’m Ezra Klein, and this is “The Ezra Klein Show.”<br>
<br>
So it’s only February, but I’m pretty sure Elizabeth Kolbert’s
“Under a White Sky” is going to be on my best books of 2021 list.
It’s a wonderful work. Kolbert is the Pulitzer Prize-winning author
of “The Sixth Extinction,” which you may have read. She is a staff
writer at The New Yorker and just one of the great science
journalists of this time, and particularly one of the great climate
journalists of this age...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/podcasts/ezra-klein-podcast-elizabeth-kolbert-transcript.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/podcasts/ezra-klein-podcast-elizabeth-kolbert-transcript.html</a><br>
<br>
- - <br>
<br>
[top climate textbook recommended by Elizabeth Colbert]<br>
<b>Global Warming: the Complete Briefing</b> 5th Edition<br>
by John Houghton (Author)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.amazon.com/Global-Warming-Sir-John-Houghton/dp/1107463793/ref=sr_1_1">https://www.amazon.com/Global-Warming-Sir-John-Houghton/dp/1107463793/ref=sr_1_1</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Pogo - "We have met the enemy, and he is US!"]<b><br>
</b> <b>The scariest thing about climate change isn’t the
weather—it’s us</b><br>
Rising temperatures will fuel more political turmoil of the kind we
are seeing today. <br>
BY JEREMY DEATON<br>
Last year saw a raft of unprecedented extreme-weather events—the
biggest-ever California wildfire, the most named storms in the
Atlantic, the costliest thunderstorm in U.S. history. Experts said
these disasters both highlight the current toll of climate change
and provide a grim preview of what’s to come.<br>
<br>
Last year also saw unprecedented attacks on U.S. democracy—a
president who refused to concede an election he lost, his allies who
tried to overturn the results, his supporters who laid siege to the
Capitol. Though few people would say so, these events also show what
we might expect in a hotter, more turbulent world.<br>
<br>
The public conversation around climate change is shaped by science,
and science is focused on weather events that it can quantify and
predict. It has less to say about the ways that climate change will
impact our politics, which are harder to foresee. This limitation
means that we scarcely discuss how rising temperatures will fuel
more political turmoil of the kind we are seeing today. But the
recent GOP power grab offers a glimpse of a world remade by climate
change.<br>
<br>
Certainly, climate models aren’t perfect. To make an accurate
projection, scientists need good data about how the climate has
behaved historically, and they need to make reasonable assumptions
about how much we will pollute. But climate models are based on the
immutable laws of physics, which are unfailing in their power of
prediction. The models have a long track record of being highly
precise and unnervingly accurate.<br>
<br>
Models can tell you, for instance, that if we continue to burn
fossil fuels with the same fatal enthusiasm, coastal waters will
regularly flood much of Coney Island, Brooklyn. In one view, such
predictions can be a source of comfort, as they appear to suggest
that the rest of New York, those parts untouched by floods, will
remain unchanged.<br>
<br>
This is where the models come up short. If Coney Island is routinely
flooding, then the rest of New York is unlikely to stay the same.
It’s easy to imagine that the cost of flood insurance will
skyrocket, and white-collar workers will retreat to the suburbs.
Banks and tech companies will relocate to cities such as Buffalo or
Chicago, which are better insulated against climate change. And
those New Yorkers who remain, now facing a sagging economy and
worsening crime, may come to support a populist authoritarian in the
mold of Donald Trump.<br>
Or maybe not. Science can’t tell us how this story ends.<br>
<br>
Researchers have made some effort to predict how humans will respond
to climate change. Studies find that, as the planet warms, people
will become less productive and more violent. Rising seas will drive
mass migration, and worsening droughts will lead to crop failures,
economic downturns, and armed conflicts. Some research even finds
that climate change will lead to more nationalism and
authoritarianism. But none of these studies can say what, precisely,
any of this means for the future of U.S. democracy.<br>
<br>
Science can project sea-level rise down to the city block, but it
cannot say where the rifts will appear in our social fabric as
humans cope with more turbulence and deprivation. If there is a
lesson in our recent political history, it’s that even small changes
can have profound effects.<br>
<br>
After Trump was elected, a new genre of political science research
emerged that attempted to explain his unlikely rise to power. The
results revealed an electorate more vulnerable to authoritarianism
than we had previously understood.<br>
<br>
Thomas B. Edsall, writing in The New York Times, chronicled how
small, mostly white towns that saw small demographic shifts swung
hard for Trump. In Elk County, Pennsylvania, home to a little more
than 30,000 people, the number of Hispanic residents went from 142
at the turn of the century to 244 in 2016. In 2008, 51 percent of
Elk voters backed Barack Obama. In 2016, 69 percent backed Trump.
Wrote Edsall, “The very white municipalities that voted so strongly
for Trump believe that they have reason to worry about the racial
stability of their neighborhoods.”<br>
<br>
What happens in a world imperiled by climate change? By one
estimate, worsening drought in Mexico will spur as many as 6.7
million people to emigrate to the United States. It’s possible that
Americans will welcome these newcomers. It’s also possible that mass
migration will lead to an authoritarian surge.<br>
<br>
For a 2014 study, researchers at Stanford investigated how people
make sense of the warning labels on prescription drugs. They found
that when people see one serious side effect—a greater risk of
developing cancer—alongside several smaller side effects—dizziness,
asthma, tremor, insomnia—they rated the drug as relatively safe. But
when people saw only the higher risk of cancer and nothing else,
they rated the drug as more risky.<br>
<br>
The warning label on climate change is sprawling. The list of side
effects is so long—floods, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes,
drought, pestilence, locusts—that it can be numbing in its effect.
If there were to be just one line on the warning label, it should be
this: Humans are capricious. Our democracy is fragile. Climate
change will do more than alter the weather.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90602632/the-scariest-thing-about-climate-change-isnt-the-weather-its-us">https://www.fastcompany.com/90602632/the-scariest-thing-about-climate-change-isnt-the-weather-its-us</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Letter posted in Wildfire Today]<br>
<b>USFS Forestry technician resigns, explains why in letter</b><br>
Bill Gabbert - February 10, 2021<br>
Was a GS-5 in Washington state<br>
A forestry technician whose primary duties were fighting fire
resigned in November after a six-year fire management career in the
Pacific Northwest, most recently on the Okanogan-Wenachee National
Forest.<br>
<br>
The person asked us not to reveal their name and wants to be
identified only by the initials, “BC”. The forestry tech had a
permanent part-time appointment, guaranteed six months of work each
year as a GS-5. They said they had good performance ratings from
their supervisor who was hoping the person would come back to work
the next season.<br>
<br>
They sent us a copy what what was described as their resignation
letter, saying, “I am sharing this with you in hopes to shine a
brighter light on what I saw in my short time with the agency as
shortfalls and areas for improvement.”<br>
<br>
Reading the eight to ten issues that led the person to a
life-changing decision can perhaps shine a light on conditions
facing other federal fire personnel.<br>
<br>
Here is the letter. Acronyms that have been replaced with text are
in [brackets]:<br>
<blockquote>I will be resigning from the U.S. Forest Service
effective immediately due to a multitude of factors including but
not limited to-<br>
<br>
Lack of a living wage: leading to reliance on [hazard] and
[overtime] pay and putting firefighters in dangerous situations
when risks to environment is low.<br>
Lack of locality pay.<br>
Chronic prolonged exposure to cancer causing smoke and pollutants.<br>
Lengthening fire season/expectation of pay periods worked.<br>
Lack of financial compensation for being on call for over 6 months
straight.<br>
Lack of financial incentive or legal backing for EMT’s such as
myself working for Type 2 organizations. Apparently EMT’s on type
1 crews are “worthy” while I’m not. If I’m important enough to be
put on an [Incident Action Plan] as an EMT then I’m important
enough to be backed by a medical director and paid for my skills.<br>
Minimum wage in Washington being higher than take home pay for
GS-5 wages.<br>
Lack of off season support from the Agency (mental health,
healthcare, employment/job placement).<br>
I thoroughly appreciate the opportunities that this job and
organization have afforded me. I have fought fire in places, and
environments that I would have otherwise never seen. I have
created bonds and memories that will last a lifetime. And for that
I am thankful. However, this organization needs to have a serious
moment of introspection; the bread and butter of our firefighting
operations across this country are seasonal temporary employees —
who are overworked and underpaid.<br>
<br>
Things need to change, and I can’t risk my physical, mental, and
financial well-being waiting for those changes to occur. My four
years with the U.S. Forest Service has been very eye opening to
say the least. In order to do what’s best for me and my life, I
feel it is time for me to hang up the line gear and move on to
more stable and financially rewarding work. I appreciate everyone
that I worked with, and for, on the Entiat Ranger District.<br>
<br>
I am resigning effective immediately.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/10/usfs-forestry-technician-resigns-explains-why-in-letter/">https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/10/usfs-forestry-technician-resigns-explains-why-in-letter/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
February 11, 1988 </b></font><br>
<p>February 11, 1988: In a speech on environmental and energy policy
in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, Democratic presidential candidate
Michael Dukakis declares: "We need someone in the White House who
understands that America should be the leader on international
environmental questions."<br>
(29:33-29:50)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://c-spanvideo.org/program/Energ">http://c-spanvideo.org/program/Energ</a> <br>
</p>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/<br>
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