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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>February 14, 2021</b></font></i> <br>
</p>
[PBS video 11 mins]<br>
<b>Why on Earth are Winters Getting Worse if the Planet is Getting
Warmer?</b><br>
PBS Terra - Feb 1, 2021<br>
In 2015, Boston was brought to its knees by the worst winter on
record, receiving an unprecedented 110 inches of snow. And over the
last decade, the American Northeast has seen more than a 200%
increase in the frequency of large, disruptive snowstorms. This
trend surprised nearly everybody, including many of the top experts,
as they had been expecting a warming planet to translate into milder
winters. But in many locations, we have seen just the opposite. So
what’s going on here?<br>
<br>
We traveled to Boston to search for answers about these surprising
effects of climate change and their connection to the jet stream,
the polar vortex, and a phenomenon known as “arctic amplification.”
We also discuss some of the most common risks like hypothermia,
frostbite, heart attacks, and traffic accidents that make winter
weather, far and away, the deadliest natural hazard of them all.<br>
<br>
Weathered is a show hosted by meteorologist Maiya May and produced
by Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural
disasters, what causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can
do to prepare.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5W84bi9YEGY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5W84bi9YEGY</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[Defining Arctic Amplification]<br>
<b>How Arctic Amplification Affects the Polar Vortex</b><br>
Verisk<br>
AER explains how accelerated Arctic warming, known as Arctic
amplification, is increasingly disrupting the polar vortex, leading
to widespread severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere’s
mid-latitudes. To learn more, visit <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://vrsk.co/polarvortex">https://vrsk.co/polarvortex</a>.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMeI4N5dui4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMeI4N5dui4</a>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
[another video explantion]<br>
<b>Stefan Rahmstorf: Climate Change and Arctic Tipping Points - Full
Presentation</b><br>
Oct 13, 2019<br>
The Arctic Circle<br>
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor and Head of Earth System Analysis at the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research spoke about Climate
Change and Arctic Tipping Points in a Plenary Session during the
#ArcticCircle2019 Assembly.<br>
WEBSITE: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.arcticcircle.org">www.arcticcircle.org</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb-1MPIjoAY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb-1MPIjoAY</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Carbon Brief]<br>
<b>Analysis: Shell says new ‘Brazil-sized’ forest would be needed to
meet 1.5C climate goal</b><br>
For the first time, Shell has released a “pathway” showing how the
world could potentially meet the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goal of
limiting global warming to 1.5C.<br>
<br>
This marks a significant shift in attitude towards action on climate
change, given that only six years ago executives at the oil-and-gas
major were sceptical about warming not breaching 2C. It now says
that the 1.5C goal could be achieved by 2100 with CO2 emissions
reaching “net-zero” by 2058.<br>
<br>
A pivotal moment came in 2018 when Shell outlined a ”plausible”
route to meeting the Paris Agreement’s “well-below 2C” goal,
including seeing “peak oil” in 2025 with “peak gas” following a
decade later.<br>
<br>
However, Carbon Brief analysis of Shell’s new “Sky 1.5” scenario
shows that, despite its ”highly ambitious” framing, it is, in fact,
nearly identical to its 2C predecessor. Shell’s vision of a
continued role for oil, gas and coal until the end of the century
remains essentially the same.<br>
<br>
Aside from the temporary impact of Covid-19, the major difference
between the two scenarios is the “extensive scale-up of nature-based
solutions”, specifically planting trees over an “area approaching
that of Brazil”.<br>
<br>
Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden describes the 1.5C pathway as
a “truly desirable destination”, but also one that is “highly
challenging”. While he says Shell intends to “play its part”, the
report also emphasises the role of “people” and “societies”.<br>
<br>
‘Inevitable transition’<br>
The new scenario was released this week in a package with two
others, titled “Waves” and “Islands”. Like Sky 1.5, they map an
energy future beyond the pandemic, but without meeting the world’s
climate targets.<br>
<br>
These scenarios are “not intended to be projections or forecasts of
the future” and are “not Shell’s strategy or business plan”, a legal
disclaimer states:<br>
<br>
“Ultimately, whether society meets its goals to decarbonise is not
within Shell’s control.”<br>
<br>
Rather, the scenarios are described as “a useful tool for exploring
future possibilities”.<br>
<br>
Shell used to be resistant to the idea of publishing such ambitious
visions. Jeremy Bentham, the firm’s head of scenarios, told Carbon
Brief in 2015 that 2C targets had become politically and socially
“less plausible”...<br>
- - <br>
Responding to the suggestion that Shell’s Sky 1.5 scenario still
includes a considerable role for fossil fuels, Bentham tells Carbon
Brief “the world will continue to need oil throughout the century”:<br>
“Sectors, such as industries that produce iron, steel, cement,
plastic and chemicals and certain types of transport – the
foundations of economic development – currently rely on the unique
ability of hydrocarbons like oil, natural gas and coal to provide
extremely high temperatures, chemical reactions or dense energy
storage. Many of these cannot be electrified at all using current
technology, or only at a prohibitively high cost.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-shell-says-new-brazil-sized-forest-would-be-needed-to-meet-1-5c-climate-goal">https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-shell-says-new-brazil-sized-forest-would-be-needed-to-meet-1-5c-climate-goal</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[fire risk]<b><br>
</b><b>Wildfire risk reports available for communities in the U.S.</b><br>
AuthorBill GabbertPosted onFebruary 12,
2021CategoriesUncategorizedTagsFireWise, WUI<br>
Reports can be customized for every city, county, and state<br>
Headwaters Economics has developed new Wildfire Risk report system
for communities. Reports can be customized for every U.S. city,
county, and state which provide information about wildfire risk and
potentially vulnerable populations. It uses public data from the
USDA Forest Service, US Census Bureau, and other sources and is one
of several reports available in their Economic Profile System.<br>
<br>
Headwaters Economics explains that they created this new report
because wildfire risk is more than a physical hazard. Economic,
demographic, and social vulnerabilities put some people
disproportionately at risk. Information in their reports can help
elected officials, land use planners, fire personnel, and community
health organizations to:<br>
<br>
prioritize and direct resources to the people and places most
at-risk;<br>
customize and target outreach and education efforts; and<br>
tailor wildfire response and operational plans.<br>
The graphic at the top of this article is a portion of the 15-page
report for Yreka, California, which can be downloaded here.<br>
<br>
Arizona Central also has a system for generating data about wildfire
risk for individual communities in the Western United States.<br>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/12/wildfire-risk-reports-available-for-communities-in-the-u-s/">https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/12/wildfire-risk-reports-available-for-communities-in-the-u-s/</a></p>
<p>- -</p>
[Source material]<br>
<b>Wildfire Risk Report for every U.S. community</b><br>
February 2021<br>
<br>
Wildfires have gotten bigger, more expensive, and more damaging in
recent decades. Better understanding of wildfire risk can help
communities prioritize prevention and mitigation measures to reach
the most vulnerable people. A new report from Headwaters Economics
provides community-level data about wildfire hazard and potentially
vulnerable populations. The report is part of our Economic Profile
System, a free, easy-to-use tool that builds customized reports from
public data.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://headwaterseconomics.org/natural-hazards/wildfire-risk-report/">https://headwaterseconomics.org/natural-hazards/wildfire-risk-report/</a><br>
- -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://headwaterseconomics.org/apps/economic-profile-system/">https://headwaterseconomics.org/apps/economic-profile-system/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[an old vampire gas awakens again]<br>
<b>A New Study Closes the Case on the Mysterious Rise of a Climate
Super-Pollutant</b><br>
Scientists who detected the return of a long-banned pollutant say
emissions resumed their prior decline after China cracked down on
production of the chemical.<br>
<br>
By Phil McKenna<br>
February 10, 2021<br>
The whodunit began when scientists caught a whiff of an unexpected
climate super-pollutant in the air in 2018, which spurred a global
investigation to find its source. A subsequent crackdown on illegal
production of the banned chemical has resulted in a return to
decreasing emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas, two new studies
conclude, effectively closing the case.<br>
<br>
Production of CFC-11, which was used primarily to make foam
insulation, was slowly phased out before being banned entirely by
2010. The chemical, which destroys atmospheric ozone in addition to
warming the planet, was banned under the Montreal Protocol, an
international agreement that was finalized in 1987 to help mend the
“ozone hole” over Antarctica and now also addresses climate change.
<br>
<br>
However, in 2018, researchers detected an “unexpected and persistent
increase” in global atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11, which is
7,000 times more effective at warming the planet than carbon dioxide
over the near term. <br>
The study sparked independent on-the-ground investigations that
found widespread, illegal CFC-11 production in China. A subsequent
scientific study concluded roughly half of the observed increase in
atmospheric concentrations resulted from illegal production in
Eastern China. The studies and investigations led the Chinese
government to a crackdown on the chemical’s production.<br>
<br>
Since the Chinese enforcement actions, atmospheric concentrations of
CFC-11 have resumed their decline, according to a pair of studies
published Wednesday in the journal Nature.<br>
<br>
“We raised a red flag,” said Stephen Montzka, a National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration researcher and the lead author of the
initial 2018 study as well as one of the two current studies.
“Things weren’t going as they should have and now we have seen big
changes from the time we made those announcements to today.”<br>
<br>
Montzka said emissions of CFC-11 in 2019, the most current year for
which data is available, are at or close to where they were around
2008, before the spike in emissions began.<br>
<br>
Despite being banned globally by 2010, some emissions of CFC-11
persist as the chemical slowly leaks back out of the insulation or
is released into the atmosphere when buildings or other
foam-containing products are demolished.<br>
<br>
However, had illegal production in China not occurred in recent
years, it’s possible that current emissions, which are calculated
from changes in atmospheric concentrations, would be significantly
lower. A 2019 technical assessment by the United Nations Environment
Programme concluded that current emissions of CFC-11 leaking from
foam and other end products would be roughly two-thirds lower than
those observed in the current study.<br>
<br>
Montzka said it’s hard to say whether CFC-11 emissions are back to
where they would have been, but added that illegal production in
recent years shouldn’t have a significant, lasting impact. <br>
<br>
“Provided we don’t get any substantial increase again, ultimately we
can conclude this pulse didn’t add substantially to… ozone depletion
and global warming,” Montzka said.<br>
<br>
Avipsa Mahapatra, climate campaign lead with the Environmental
Investigation Agency, an environmental organization based in
Washington and London, said the findings were a “shot in the arm”
for climate and ozone protection. <br>
<br>
“The atmosphere is telling us CFC-11 emissions are now back to a
downward trend like they were supposed to be,” said Mahapatra, whose
organization published a report, based on undercover visits to
Chinese factories that confirmed their illegal production of CFC-11,
just months after the initial scientific study. “It’s a landmark
example of a global concerted effort that started in 2018 to deal
with an epic ozone and climate threat.” <br>
<br>
The current studies also show the effectiveness of international
environmental treaties like the Montreal Protocol to reduce
emissions.<br>
<br>
Despite the good news, Mahapatra said a two-fold challenge
remains—ensuring that illegal production of CFC-11 does not recur,
and confiscating and destroying any remaining CFC-11 that has not
yet been used. <br>
<br>
Montzka said the studies and the impact they had on stopping illegal
production of CFC-11 underscore the need for similar monitoring
efforts going forward as governments try to reduce emissions to
tackle climate change.<br>
<br>
“Independent, observation-based assessments allowed us to identify a
problem that we didn’t know existed,” Montzka said. “In the future,
if we want to control [greenhouse gases], this is an important point
to remember.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10022021/climate-super-pollutant-cfc-11-china-factories/">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10022021/climate-super-pollutant-cfc-11-china-factories/</a><br>
- - <br>
[source matter from 2018]<br>
<b>An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of
ozone-depleting CFC-11</b><br>
Abstract<br>
The Montreal Protocol was designed to protect the stratospheric
ozone layer by enabling reductions in the abundance of
ozone-depleting substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the
atmosphere1,2,3. The reduction in the atmospheric concentration of
trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has made the second-largest
contribution to the decline in the total atmospheric concentration
of ozone-depleting chlorine since the 1990s1. However, CFC-11 still
contributes one-quarter of all chlorine reaching the stratosphere,
and a timely recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer depends on a
sustained decline in CFC-11 concentrations1. Here we show that the
rate of decline of atmospheric CFC-11 concentrations observed at
remote measurement sites was constant from 2002 to 2012, and then
slowed by about 50 per cent after 2012. The observed slowdown in the
decline of CFC-11 concentration was concurrent with a 50 per cent
increase in the mean concentration difference observed between the
Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and also with the emergence of
strong correlations at the Mauna Loa Observatory between
concentrations of CFC-11 and other chemicals associated with
anthropogenic emissions. A simple model analysis of our findings
suggests an increase in CFC-11 emissions of 13 ± 5 gigagrams per
year (25 ± 13 per cent) since 2012, despite reported production
being close to zero4 since 2006. Our three-dimensional model
simulations confirm the increase in CFC-11 emissions, but indicate
that this increase may have been as much as 50 per cent smaller as a
result of changes in stratospheric processes or dynamics. The
increase in emission of CFC-11 appears unrelated to past production;
this suggests unreported new production, which is inconsistent with
the Montreal Protocol agreement to phase out global CFC production
by 2010.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
February 14, 1979 </b></font><br>
<p>February 14, 1979: The New York Times reports: "There is a real
possibility that some people now in their infancy will live to a
time when the ice at the North Pole will have melted, a change
that would cause swift and perhaps catastrophic changes in
climate."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60716FD3A5D12728DDDAD0994DA405B898BF1D3">http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60716FD3A5D12728DDDAD0994DA405B898BF1D3</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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