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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>March 23, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[fresh applications - text and audio]<br>
<b>NOAA Upgrades Forecasts As Climate Change Drives More Severe
Storms</b><br>
March 22, 2021<br>
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration upgraded the
computer model that forecasters use to predict the weather one to
two weeks in the future, called the Global Forecast System. The new
model is better at predicting where hurricanes will form and how
intense they will be as well as where and when snowstorms and
rainstorms will occur, and how much precipitation will fall.<br>
<br>
"This is going to have a fundamental impact on the forecasts that
are provided day to day," says Louis Uccellini, director of the
National Weather Service.<br>
<br>
Climate change is driving more severe weather across the country. In
recent years, Americans have experienced record-breaking hurricanes,
wildfires, heat waves and rainstorms. In many cases, federal weather
forecasts have not provided accurate information.<br>
<br>
The most striking example was in 2012 when the model was slow to
predict that Hurricane Sandy was going to make landfall. During the
2019 hurricane season, the federal weather model underperformed the
European Union's forecast model when it came to predicting where
hurricanes would make landfall. And just this month the model
incorrectly predicted how much precipitation would fall in a
snowstorm that hit the Boulder, Colo., area.<br>
Inaccurate federal forecasts are dangerous because most weather
apps, websites and television weather reports rely on the government
information.<br>
<br>
In tests, the upgraded weather model performed better than its
predecessor. "Improvements are pretty significant for this upgrade,"
says Vijay Tallapragada, the head of the Modeling and Data
Assimilation Branch for NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center.<br>
<br>
His team tested the new model against past weather events to see how
it would have performed. The team found that the new model predicted
the recent Colorado snowstorm nearly a day earlier and was more
precise about where snow would be most intense.<br>
<br>
When it comes to protecting lives and property, however, hurricane
forecasts are particularly important. The new model appears to be
noticeably better at predicting where hurricanes will make landfall.
"We found about a 10[%] to 15% improvement in tropical cyclone track
and intensity in the Atlantic Basin," Tallapragada says.<br>
<br>
That adds up to about 36 hours of extra lead time for residents in
the storm's path. "These improvements are pretty prominent," he
says.<br>
<br>
The upgraded model relies on supercomputers in Virginia and Florida
as well as software upgrades that allow the model to use more
information from satellites and aircraft.<br>
<br>
It is also the first time federal weather forecasts will use data
collected in the upper atmosphere. Until now, NOAA's weather model
didn't include what is happening in the top layers of the
atmosphere. That's a problem because the entire atmosphere is one
continuous system, and what happens up high affects weather near the
surface. For example, temperature changes in the stratosphere can
affect the jet stream — the river of air that snakes across the
United States and carries weather systems with it.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.npr.org/2021/03/22/979932115/noaa-upgrades-forecasts-as-climate-change-drives-more-severe-storms">https://www.npr.org/2021/03/22/979932115/noaa-upgrades-forecasts-as-climate-change-drives-more-severe-storms</a><br>
[The MET Office in England supposedly uses faster, bigger computers
]<br>
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[Ooops new changes]<br>
<b>We’re underestimating the destructive power of tornadoes, study
shows</b><br>
Many are at least a category stronger than their ratings have
suggested, analysis finds<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/22/tornado-power-underestimated-study/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/22/tornado-power-underestimated-study/</a>
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[Hot and dry]<br>
<b>Arizona's 2021 wildfire season expected to have 'very severe
potential'</b><br>
Gov. Doug Ducey and fire officials announced Monday that the
upcoming wildfire season is expected to be similar to 2020, which
was reported as the second-worst wildfire season in Arizona.<br>
<br>
"We have more vegetation on the ground this year that can act as a
fuel for wildfires, so we’re already seeing a heightened risk to our
communities," Ducey said in a news conference Monday.<br>
<br>
Last year, 2,520 wildfires burned nearly 1 million acres across
state, federal and tribal lands and was one of the worst fire
seasons in a decade, according to the Arizona Department of Forestry
and Fire Management. More than 80% of the fires were human-caused,
but fire officials say vegetation overgrowth, an ongoing drought and
lack of rain during the monsoon season also contributed to the
increase in fires. <br>
<br>
The Bush Fire became the state's fifth-largest fire after it burned
193,000 acres in Tonto National Forest...<br>
- - <br>
New initiative will train over 700 Arizona inmates to help prevent
wildfires<br>
The news conference with fire and state agencies came after Ducey
signed the Arizona Healthy Forest Initiative in March to increase
the number of people working to prevent fires in the state. The new
$24 million multi-agency initiative will train more than 700 Arizona
inmates to help prevent wildfires and create partnerships to reduce
wildfire fuels. <br>
<br>
"The Arizona Healthy Forest Initiative not only promotes a healthier
and safer Arizona, but it also deeply expands the rehabilitative
opportunities, which enhance offender’s post-incarceration
successful reentry and transition back into our community," said
Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation and Reentry
Director David Shinn at the conference. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-wildfires/2021/03/22/arizona-wildfire-outlook-2021-severe-potential-due-drought/4801470001/">https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-wildfires/2021/03/22/arizona-wildfire-outlook-2021-severe-potential-due-drought/4801470001/</a><br>
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[The Hill - on the US Chamber of Commerce - traditionally a strong
denialist organization]<br>
<b>Indicators to watch as the Chamber's new leader approaches
climate change policy</b><br>
BY KEVIN MOSS, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 03/22/21<br>
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the most powerful business lobbying
group in the country, brought on a new leader two weeks ago. With
that change, the Chamber opened a window for a new approach to
climate policy. <br>
<br>
Suzanne Clark takes the helm as CEO after 24 years of leadership by
Tom Donohue, whose tenure was often marked by aggressive opposition
to climate action. The signals Clark sends in her early days will be
important, including whether she will lead the century-old
institution to join the momentum building in businesses across the
country to address climate change. <br>
<br>
Clark won’t be starting from scratch. In 2017, the Chamber created a
position for a vice president of environmental affairs and
sustainability and created a Task Force on Climate Action. Her
predecessor, Donohue, began to shift his narrative on climate change
in recent years, saying that “inaction is not an option,” also
reflected on the Chamber’s website. In January, the Chamber
indicated general support for a market-based carbon policy but
conditioned by a long list of limitations. <br>
<br>
Now, Clark can turn the Chamber’s words into action. Doing so would
align the Chamber with a growing number of major businesses that
have adopted science-based emissions targets and with the majority
of the U.S. population, which supports climate action. <br>
<br>
Here are four indicators to watch for: <br>
<br>
<b>Will the Chamber take a consistent stance on climate policy? </b><br>
In 2020, the Chamber supported legislation to phase down use of
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a type of greenhouse gas (GHG). But
nearly simultaneously, it filed an amicus brief in the Court of
Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to back the Trump
administration’s rollback of federal vehicle emission standards.
Clark should establish and consistently apply a science-based policy
agenda to address the climate crisis. <br>
<br>
<b>Will the Chamber represent all of its members? </b><br>
The Chamber disproportionately represents fossil fuel interests. But
a large number of Chamber members pursue climate action, including
those that are party to America’s Pledge, an agreement signed by a
broad range of local governments, businesses and others to help the
U.S. reach its Paris Agreement goals. The Chamber’s membership also
includes many of the 1,200 companies that have committed to setting
science-based targets to reduce their GHG emissions. <br>
<br>
<b>Will the Chamber support lawmakers committed to climate action
and stop endorsing climate deniers? </b><br>
Nearly half of the lawmakers who received the Chamber’s most recent
Spirit of Enterprise award, which includes financial support, can be
classified as climate deniers. Clark should shift the Chamber’s
coveted endorsements and funding toward lawmakers that are
pro-climate action. <br>
<br>
<b>Will the Chamber back an ambitious 2030 emissions reduction
target for the U.S. under the Paris Agreement? </b><br>
kjThe Biden administration will soon announce a reduction target to
cut U.S. emissions by 2030. The Chamber has expressed support for
U.S. membership in the Paris Agreement but on March 17 they
published a statement about the development of a "realistic and
achievable” Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). “Realistic and
achievable” is code for maintaining the status quo at a time when we
need leadership and transformation to address the climate risk. The
devil is in the details, and the details reinforce this lack of
ambition. <br>
<br>
The Chamber’s “Principles and Priorities for NDC Development” fall
back on classic fear tactics, casting doubt on American
competitiveness and protecting specific sectors, including coal and
oil. This is an indicator that the Chamber’s underlying priorities
have not changed. <br>
<br>
The U.S. can cut emissions 50 percent or more below 2005 levels by
2030. The data proves this, and doing so would boost American
businesses, generate more well-paying, middle-class jobs and ensure
a stronger economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chamber
should revisit its position, be outspoken about its support for an
ambitious NDC that leads rather than inhibits change and urge its
members to follow suit. <br>
<br>
Clark will face opposition from within the Chamber and throughout
some sectors of the business world if she pivots support away from
fossil fuel interests. But such a pivot would bring the Chamber in
line with global business trends that recognize sustainable
practices as the future of their industries. <br>
<br>
Clark can help the Chamber’s members thrive now, through the 21st
century and beyond by promoting robust climate action. The companies
she represents and the competitiveness of U.S. industry depend on
it. <br>
<br>
Kevin Moss is the global director of WRI’s Center for Sustainable
Business. In this capacity, he leads the institute’s private sector
strategy, guides research and engagement and oversees WRI’s
business-oriented init<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/544318-four-indicators-that-bidens-chamber-pick-will-pursue-climate">https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/544318-four-indicators-that-bidens-chamber-pick-will-pursue-climate</a><br>
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[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
March 23, 2006 </b></font><br>
March 23, 2006: In a CBSNews.com interview, "60 Minutes"
correspondent Scott Pelley explains why he doesn't cite the views of
climate-change deniers in his stories: <br>
<blockquote>
<blockquote><b>Scott Pelley And Catherine Herrick On Global
Warming Coverage</b><br>
BY BRIAN MONTOPOLI<br>
<br>
MARCH 23, 2006 / 10:30 AM / CBS NEWS<br>
This past Sunday, 60 Minutes aired its second report of the
season on global warming. Both reports featured correspondent
Scott Pelley. Pelley also did a report on New Orleans that dealt
with climate change, and he is now exploring different angles
for another possible global warming story next season.<br>
<br>
I spoke with Pelley and producer Catherine Herrick, who produced
Sunday's story with Bill Owens, about why they have become
focused on global warming, as well as the nature of their
coverage of the topic.<br>
<br>
Both of the global warming stories, Herrick says, grew out of
the release of the results of the Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment, which were presented in November 2004. It is
considered the most comprehensive assessment of climate change
ever undertaken. The second story, which focused on government
scientist James Hansen, grew out of the first, Pelley says, and
the two were originally going to be part of the same story.<br>
<br>
I told Pelley that his apparent focus on global warming could
lead some to the conclusion that he was on a crusade. "It's not
a crusade for me, but it's a topic I'm very interested in," he
says. He adds that while two of the twelve stories he's doing
this season are on global warming, they are those are the only
two that he's aware of "60 Minutes" doing – and the show does
more than 100 stories in a season. "So that ain't much," he
says, noting that there are plenty of other topics that have
been covered twice, such as prisoner abuse. I pointed out that
one see those other topics all over the place, while global
warming doesn't seem to get as much attention.<br>
<br>
"It's very expensive to do global warming stories," says
Herrick, noting the logistical difficulty of going somewhere
like the Arctic Circle. "This has been my life since November of
2004." When pressed on why they, specifically, were covering the
topic, Pelley and Herrick focused on why it was newsworthy, not
personal interest. Pelley noted that the president is now
talking about warming, the scientific community has become more
united in its opinion on the topic, industries like coal and
insurance are changing their approach to dealing with warming
issues, scientists are saying it's happening faster than ever
before, and "it's something the audience is very interested in."<br>
<br>
Pelley's most recent report, like his first, did not pause to
acknowledge global warming skeptics, instead treating the
existence of global warming as an established fact. I again
asked him why. "If I do an interview with Elie Wiesel," he asks,
"am I required as a journalist to find a Holocaust denier?" He
says his team tried hard to find a respected scientist who
contradicted the prevailing opinion in the scientific community,
but there was no one out there who fit that description. "This
isn't about politics or pseudo-science or conspiracy theory
blogs," he says. "This is about sound science."<br>
<br>
But doesn't the fact that there are a lot of Americans who are
skeptical of global warming – not well respected scientists,
perhaps, but ordinary people watching the segment – warrant at
least some recognition of the other side? "There becomes a point
in journalism where striving for balance becomes irresponsible,"
says Pelley.<br>
<br>
Herrick compares the debate around global warming to that which
once took place around seatbelts. "There was a debate about
whether they could save your life, and it moved beyond that to
what we can do about it," she says. She adds that a debate about
the existence of global warming today may not be legitimate, but
that doesn't keep it from popping up on cable news. "Special
interests put out some great spokespeople, who are often better
equipped to make their arguments that the people defending the
science," she says. "People on the science side don't understand
why the debate is still going on."<br>
<br>
First published on March 23, 2006 / 10:30 AM<br>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-pelley-and-catherine-herrick-on-global-warming-coverage/">http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-pelley-and-catherine-herrick-on-global-warming-coverage/</a>
<br>
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