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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>March 24, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[Associated Press]<br>
<b>Forecast for spring: Nasty drought worsens for much of US</b><br>
BY SETH BORENSTEIN<br>
March 18, 2021<br>
With nearly two-thirds of the United States abnormally dry or worse,
the government’s spring forecast offers little hope for relief,
especially in the West where a devastating megadrought has taken
root and worsened.<br>
<br>
Weather service and agriculture officials warned of possible water
use cutbacks in California and the Southwest, increased wildfires,
low levels in key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell and
damage to wheat crops.<br>
More than 44% of the nation is in moderate or worse drought, and
nearly 18% is in extreme or exceptional drought — all of it west of
the Mississippi River. Climate scientists are calling what’s
happening in the West a “megadrought” that started in 1999.<br>
<br>
“The nearly West-wide drought is already quite severe in its breadth
and intensity, and unfortunately it doesn’t appear likely that there
will be much relief this spring,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel
Swain, who writes the Weather West blog and isn’t part of the NOAA
outlook. “Winter precipitation has been much below average across
much of California, and summer precipitation reached record low
levels in 2020 across the desert Southwest.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://apnews.com/article/drought-spring-forecast-united-states-b24a2a60ae320df2fb245e4f215aeb5e">https://apnews.com/article/drought-spring-forecast-united-states-b24a2a60ae320df2fb245e4f215aeb5e</a>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
[WBUR Audio podcast - (thanks LH!)]<br>
<b>America's West Faces A Megadrought. What's The Solution?</b><br>
On Point<br>
The western U.S. is no stranger to drought. But this isn't any dry
spell. More than 70% of the West is exceptionally parched. Could it
be a permanent change?<br>
Brad Udall and Colby Pellegrino join Meghna Chakrabarti.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/03/18/america-west-megadrought-dry-farmer">https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/03/18/america-west-megadrought-dry-farmer</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[see the map
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Drought-monitor-March-16-2021.jpg">https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Drought-monitor-March-16-2021.jpg</a>]<br>
<b>Opinion: We need to act now to fight wildfires</b><br>
March 22, 2021<br>
Much of the Western U.S. is in severe to exceptional drought<br>
By Harrison Raine<br>
<br>
For the 2021 fire season, the writing is on the wall. The West,
despite a few days of intense winter, is far drier than it was
leading up to last year’s record-breaking fires.<br>
<br>
As a hotshot crew member, the reality of what’s to come fills me
with two distinct thoughts: money and dread. With my financial
stability tied to overtime pay, I know that my pockets will be full
when I am laid off next winter. But the unrelenting fires that stand
between now and then make me nervous.<br>
<br>
I also know that I am not alone. Across the West, people in homes
and communities are filled with anxiety as they look at dry timber
and brown hillsides that are usually white this time of year. For
them, when the air fills with smoke, there won’t be any fire
paychecks, just a prolonged sense of uncertainty.<br>
<br>
Drought levels often serve as a good indicator of the fires to come,
and things are far worse now than they were in the build-up to 2020.
Rich Tinker, an author of the U.S. Drought Monitor at the Climate
Prediction Center, told me, “In 2020, the highest we got to
anywhere, was a D2 — Severe Drought. Now we are looking at D3 — D4 —
Extreme and Exceptional Drought across much of the West and almost
all of the Southwest.”<br>
When Nick Nauslar, a fire meteorologist at the National Interagency
Fire Center, talks about the fire season to come, he’s particularly
blunt: “The deck is stacked against us. I fully expect a busier
season than normal across the Southwest.”<br>
<br>
For Tinker and Nauslar, the areas of concern primarily encompass the
Four Corners states of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. When
you put together light snowpack, dry fuels and high temperatures,
every wildland firefighter knows what that means.<br>
<br>
In my time as wildland firefighter, the question I get asked again
and again is whether I am ever scared. The answer to this question
is “yes,” but not in the life or death way in which its asked.<br>
<br>
There are far more constant threats than the flames themselves.
Smoke, for one. Carbon emissions, for another.<br>
<br>
I think I’m worried most by the knowledge that damage from these
wildfires affects the health of millions of people, and that the
large wildfires of today are ensuring bigger ones in the future.
Everyone should be concerned about this reality, not just those of
us on the fire line.<br>
<br>
Wildfires and their management are known by some researchers as a
“wicked problem,” where no optimal solution exists. For decades,
forest managers were convinced that suppressing all fires was the
answer. But we’ve known for a while now how misplaced those beliefs
were, even as many agencies cling to that failed strategy of a
century ago.<br>
<br>
Jerry Williams, former fire and aviation director for the U.S.
Forest Service, puts it best about our stubborn wrongheadedness:
“Every year we set a new record, we invest more in (fire)
suppression, invest less in mitigation and wonder why we’re not
getting on top of it.” If someone who directed the largest wildland
firefighting force in the world makes this statement, it’s probably
time to try something else.<br>
What we need are policies and programs that address wildfires in
ways beyond putting fires out. This Spring, Colorado showed that
it’s willing to learn from last season’s pain when Gov. Jared Polis
and State legislators from both sides of the aisle released a series
of bills aimed at wildfire mitigation, not only wildfire
suppression.<br>
<br>
These bills are exciting for several reasons such as: allocation of
millions for forest health projects and grants for communities and
individual homeowners to carry out their own hazard reduction
projects. Also there is an effort to seek out incentives for markets
to address fuel mitigation through biomass energy.<br>
<br>
The millions the state spends now on restoring forests and hardening
homes pale in comparison to the costs of firefighting and rebuilding
homes. Every dollar spent on prevention saves $17 in suppression,
according to a report from former Utah Gov. Gary R Herbert.<br>
<br>
There is also a bill to allow former inmates with firefighting
experience to seek future employment with the state, which will help
ensure a consistent workforce.<br>
<br>
I hope the federal government is taking notes.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/03/22/opinion-we-need-to-act-now-to-fight-wildfires/">https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/03/22/opinion-we-need-to-act-now-to-fight-wildfires/</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[NOAA]<br>
<b>Spring Outlook: Drought to persist, expand in U.S. West and High
Plains</b><br>
Unlike past years, flooding from snowmelt to be less severe<br>
March 18, 2021<br>
Map image
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/season_drought%20%281%29.png">https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/season_drought%20%281%29.png</a><br>
[download image
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.noaa.gov/image_download/74993?itok=E1tXy6M7">https://www.noaa.gov/image_download/74993?itok=E1tXy6M7</a>]<br>
"The Southwest U.S., which is already experiencing widespread severe
to exceptional drought, will remain the hardest hit region in the
U.S., and water supply will continue to be a concern this spring in
these drought-affected areas," said Mary Erickson, deputy director
of the National Weather Service. "This is a major change from recent
years where millions were impacted by severe flooding. Nonetheless,
NOAA's forecasts and outlooks will continue to serve as a resource
for emergency managers and community decision-makers as they
navigate all potential extreme seasonal weather and water events."<br>
- -<br>
<b>Temperature and precipitation outlook</b><br>
For April through June, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored
for the entire contiguous U.S. with the exception of Western
Montana, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon and Washington. Hawaii,
western and northern Alaska are also forecast to see above-normal
temperatures. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of
southern Alaska, the Alaska Panhandle and parts of Washington state,
according to the NOAA forecast.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/spring-outlook-drought-to-persist-expand-in-us-west-and-high-plains">https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/spring-outlook-drought-to-persist-expand-in-us-west-and-high-plains</a><br>
<p>See also -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/spring-outlook-drought-persist-expand-us-west-and-high-plains">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/spring-outlook-drought-persist-expand-us-west-and-high-plains</a><br>
</p>
<p>- -</p>
[NOAA video]<br>
<b>Drought, warmth are the big story of NOAA's spring 2021 outlook</b><br>
Mar 18, 2021<br>
NOAAClimate<br>
On March 18, NOAA issued its spring outlook for floods, drought,
precipitation and temperature. Watch to find out what climate
conditions are favored for spring 2021. Download maps at Climate.gov
-- <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climate.gov/Spring2021">https://www.climate.gov/Spring2021</a>. <br>
<br>
Video produced by the Climate.gov team in cooperation with the NWS
National Water Center and the Climate Prediction Center. Unless
specifically stated otherwise, Climate.gov video productions can be
freely republished or re-purposed by others.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGi__4sLSpo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGi__4sLSpo</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[geo-political considerations]<br>
<b>How Can Rain Create Conflict? Precipitation and Water Use: Crash
Course Geography #11</b><br>
Mar 23, 2021<br>
CrashCourse<br>
If you compare precipitation around the world with population
distribution we can understand a simple but powerful pattern of
human geography: where there is water, there are people. But it gets
a little more complicated because where there are people and limited
resources, there is often conflict and bigger geographical questions
at stake. So today, we’re going to zoom in and look more closely at
how precipitation patterns around the Great Plains and the western
United States has led to many conflicts involving the use and
distribution of water resources. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68G1ikYRNxg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68G1ikYRNxg</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[The Phoenix - commentary threads]<br>
<b>Tuesday Thread: Feeling overwhelmed</b><b><br>
</b>Eric Holthaus<br>
March 23, 2021<br>
There’s been so much happening lately, at least it feels like to me.
I’m feeling super overwelmed by all of it.<br>
<br>
Content warning: the next few paragraphs are a list of all the very
specific reasons I’m feeling overwhelmed.<br>
<br>
I’m not sure whether it’s surge of vaccinations and the imminent
return to “business as normal”, the steady drumbeat of depressing
climate news, the double mass shootings and hate crimes, the intense
social anxiety I’ve developed during the pandemic, or the fact that
I recently turned 40 and my kids are growing up very quickly… but
it’s been a lot.<br>
<br>
What feels worse to me, personally, is that people I know and care
about are making tangible choices to return back to business as
usual – as is the larger economy as a whole – and that’s being
celebrated. I just want to scream: “WE CAN’T GO BACK TO NORMAL,
NORMAL WASN’T WORKING!”<br>
<br>
And then, after experiencing that, it takes *a lot* of emotional
energy to find myself in a place where I can honestly imagine the
transformative change that needs to take place with the scale and
speed and justice that it needs to. I mean, I wrote a whole book
about this, it should be easier, right? It hasn’t been.<br>
<br>
I know that moving through this requires waking up, living in
community and solidarity with everyone else around me, no matter how
they’re handling this transition, and mutually helping each other
get to a place where a better future is inevitable for everyone. I
know I’ll get there, I’m just not quite sure how – and that not
knowing is the source of my anxiety.<br>
<br>
Maybe some of you are feeling the same way. How are you coping with
the rush of emotions you’re feeling?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/tuesday-thread-feeling-overwhelmed/comments">https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/tuesday-thread-feeling-overwhelmed/comments</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[media deception and information warfare - brief video]<br>
<b>Amy Westervelt on Climate Denial and Conspiracy Theories</b><br>
Mar 23, 2021<br>
greenmanbucket<br>
I've spent a lot of time since the January 6 insurrection thinking
about how 30 years of high budget, psychological warfare on climate
science has degraded our national conversation, and people's ability
to tell truth from falsehood.<br>
Amy Westervelt is a climate journalist, produces the Drilled
podcast, and has done some deep dives on fossil fuel's psychological
warfare programs.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q6i1R2-9rg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q6i1R2-9rg</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[audio explanation 45 min podcast]<br>
<b>How the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Undermining Free Speech</b><br>
Drilled<br>
Fossil fuel-backed anti-protest laws have been passed in 14 states
and are making their way through statehouses in several more states,
including six different bills in Minnesota, the only state with a
big pipeline fight this year: Line 3. Researcher Connor Gibson joins
to talk us through how this all started and where it's at.<br>
Read more:<br>
<blockquote><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pipeline-protest-laws-coronavirus_n_5e7e7570c5b6256a7a2aab41">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pipeline-protest-laws-coronavirus_n_5e7e7570c5b6256a7a2aab41</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fossil-fuel-protest_n_602c1ff6c5b6c95056f3f6af">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fossil-fuel-protest_n_602c1ff6c5b6c95056f3f6af</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://montanafreepress.org/2021/02/24/increasing-penalties-for-damaging-energy-infrastructure/">https://montanafreepress.org/2021/02/24/increasing-penalties-for-damaging-energy-infrastructure/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grassrootbeer.substack.com/p/a-refinery-lobbyist-told-kansas-legislators">https://grassrootbeer.substack.com/p/a-refinery-lobbyist-told-kansas-legislators</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grassrootbeer.substack.com/p/a-refinery-lobbyist-told-kansas-legislators">https://grassrootbeer.substack.com/p/a-refinery-lobbyist-told-kansas-legislators</a><br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-undermining-free-speech/id1439735906?i=1000513730667">https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-undermining-free-speech/id1439735906?i=1000513730667</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[are the dust storms made worse by human civilization?]<br>
<b>The skies in Beijing turned orange recently, thanks to what was
widely reported as a massive sandstorm.</b><br>
<br>
The problem, at least in terms of public health, is that it was not
actually a sandstorm. It was a dust storm.<br>
<br>
This might sound like an act of geological pedantry, but it
represents a crucial difference, and it comes down to a question of
size. Sand grains are mineral particles greater than 0.06mm in
diameter – the sort that scratches your ankles on a windy day at the
beach and ends up spoiling the picnic by feeling crunchy in your
sandwiches. Dust is potentially a far more serious issue than
blowing sand.<br>
<br>
Dust particles (or silt and clay as many geologists would term them)
are those smaller grains, which would feel silky to the touch, and
don’t scratch the skin. Crucially, these smaller, lighter grains may
travel much, much further.<br>
<br>
We bring the expertise of academics to the public.<br>
They are not reliant on the short-distance ballistic hops of the
sand grains, but may find themselves suspended in a global
atmospheric process that sees them transferred around the world.
Sand will not readily blow hundreds of kilometres, or even around
the world – dust will.<br>
<br>
The grain size also matters as the finer dust particles – those less
than 10 micrometres (pm10) and especially less than 2.5 micrometres
(pm2.5) – are serious human health hazards, as they are small enough
to be drawn deep into the lungs.<br>
<br>
Dust storms in China have occurred since long before humans had a
widespread impact on the landscape. During the repeated ice ages of
the past 2.6 million years, huge volumes of dust were generated by
the advance and retreat of ice sheets, settling to form deposits
known as loess.<br>
<br>
Over the millennia, these have accumulated to a thickness of up to
350 metres to form the Chinese Loess Plateau, covering an area
larger than France. The loess is rich in mineral nutrients, and
makes for productive agricultural soil. It is largely this farmland
which is now being eroded again by the wind and recirculating as
dust.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/beijings-sandstorm-was-actually-a-dust-storm-and-thats-much-worse-157367">https://theconversation.com/beijings-sandstorm-was-actually-a-dust-storm-and-thats-much-worse-157367</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[ClimateSight blog]<br>
<b>Let’s hear more from the women who leave academia (Part 2)</b><br>
Posted on Mar 23, 2021<br>
After the publication of my previous post, I received an email from
Dr Sian Grigg, who decided to leave academia following the
completion of her PhD. Read on below to hear her story.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatesight.org/2021/03/23/lets-hear-more-from-the-women-who-leave-academia-part-2/">https://climatesight.org/2021/03/23/lets-hear-more-from-the-women-who-leave-academia-part-2/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Exxon Valdez crash, spill and disaster]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
March 24, 1989 </b></font><br>
March 24, 1989: The notorious Exxon Valdez oil spill takes place.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znotiZ-N-oc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znotiZ-N-oc</a> <br>
[Exxon Valdez spill also revealed the extent of media coverup and
manipulation. I was working in a newsroom with the old teletype
machines. They printed misinformation - either intentional or not -
the first few news reports claimed no damage to fish and wildlife. ]
<p>- -</p>
[more from 2014]<br>
<b>Exxon Valdez oil spill<br>
</b>From Wikipedia<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill</a>
<p>- -</p>
[PhD dissertation April 2018]<br>
<b>Apology Not Accepted: The Impact of Executive
Rhetoric,Communication Strategies, Media Coverage and Time on
Crisis</b><br>
<b>Management and Public Perception during Major Oil Spills</b><br>
Western Michigan University<br>
Todd D. Harcek, Ph.D.<br>
Western Michigan University, 2018<br>
<blockquote>This research builds upon the scholarship in crisis
communication strategies and apologia<br>
employed by companies during a crisis. Within the expansive domain
of crisis management, this<br>
work evaluates the media coverage and crisis communication
strategies during three major oil<br>
spills: the Exxon Valdez, the American Trader, and the BP Gulf oil
spill. The purpose of this<br>
study is to provide practitioners, researchers and others
additional insight into the impact of<br>
media coverage on prior, current and future crises and how this
coverage, coupled with the<br>
communication strategies of companies during a crisis, can
influence public awareness or<br>
perception. Furthermore, this work examines how some crises are
referenced over time and can<br>
be linked with other crises and that the public awareness of a
crisis through continued or<br>
sustained media and scholarly references can exist well beyond the
presumed resolution of a<br>
crisis. The study reveals that crises spread to others, can be
overshadowed by other crises, and<br>
can result in an echo that lasts for years... <br>
- -<br>
Furthermore, this dissertation reveals that crisis communication
strategies that use<br>
apologia and image repair may be more nuanced and complex than
previously understood. As<br>
the crisis management and crisis communication domain expand
significantly, this dissertation<br>
suggests that, like crises, our understanding of crisis phenomena
is not static and, as such, we<br>
should continue to review, research, and evaluate the many facets
of crisis as our continued<br>
contribution to others. <br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4229&context=dissertations">https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4229&context=dissertations</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
[movie I have not seen $ preview report with Diane Sawyer]<br>
<b>The Untold Story of the Exxon Valdez</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.films.com/ecTitleDetail.aspx?TitleID=29857">https://www.films.com/ecTitleDetail.aspx?TitleID=29857</a> <br>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/</p>
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