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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>April 6, 2021</b></font></i><br>
</p>
[let's factor this in too]<br>
<b>Projected Surge of Lightning Spells More Wildfire Trouble for the
Arctic</b><br>
A major climate shift in the High North is sparking fires that can
release huge amounts of greenhouse gases from tundra ecosystems,
where fires have been rare until recently.<br>
By Bob Berwyn - April 5, 2021<br>
With the Arctic warming at up to three times the pace of the global
average, more lightning storms will invade the High North, igniting
wildfires that release carbon dioxide and speeding the transition of
flat mossy tundra to brush and forest landscapes that absorb more
solar heat energy.<br>
<br>
Yang Chen, an Earth scientist with the University of California,
Irvine and lead author of a study released today in the journal
Nature Climate Change that projected the increases in lightning
strikes, said the findings were somewhat unexpected, and intensify
wildfire concerns in the High North because lightning is the main
ignition source in the Arctic.<br>
<br>
“The size of the lightning response surprised us because expected
changes at mid-latitudes are much smaller,” he said. More
lightning-caused fires would speed a vicious circle of
climate-warming changes already under way in vast areas of tundra
and permafrost across Siberia and Alaska, he added.<br>
A surge in the frequency of large Arctic fires in the last five
years spurred the research, which is based on 20 years of NASA
satellite data showing the relationship between lightning and the
climate, he said. <br>
<br>
Linking that data with climate projections through 2100, the
scientists estimated the number of lightning strikes will grow by
about 40 percent for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit of warming. By
late in the century, the IPCC projects the Arctic could warm by 4.5
degrees to 8 degrees Fahrenheit, depending on emissions.<br>
<br>
The study also shows that the region that experiences lightning will
shift, with future flash rates in the far northern tundra areas
equal to the current rate in boreal forests, 300 miles to the south.
<br>
<br>
The increase may cause “a fire-vegetation feedback whereby more
burning in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal
trees,” that will absorb more heat from the sun, accelerating the
Arctic cycle of warming,” the authors wrote in the study...<br>
- - <br>
“We know that if we have a lightning strike it can smolder for
several days, so there is a window for fighting them,” he said. And
better lightning detection could also identify “the zombie fires
that smolder all winter and then flare up in the spring. You could
extinguish them before they blaze up again.”<br>
<br>
University of Montana fire ecologist Phil Higuera said suppressing
fires to limit greenhouse gas emissions might be a worthwhile
trade-off in a world with human-caused climate change pushingfire
into ecosystems where it has been historically rare. <br>
<br>
“Big picture,” he said, “it’s also key to keep this in context.
Limiting human emissions of CO2 is the much more impactful action in
terms of mitigating and reducing anthropogenic climate change.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05042021/projected-surge-of-lightning-spells-more-wildfire-trouble-for-the-arctic/">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05042021/projected-surge-of-lightning-spells-more-wildfire-trouble-for-the-arctic/</a><br>
- -<br>
[from the journal: nature climate change]<br>
Published: 05 April 2021<br>
<b>Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost
carbon</b><br>
Nature Climate Change (2021)<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate
change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate
and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer
lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong
positive relationship with the product of convective available
potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this
relationship to Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
climate projections for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows
an increase in CAPE (86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in
areas underlain by permafrost, causing summer lightning to
increase by 112 ± 38% by the end of the century (2081–2100).
Future flash rates at the northern treeline are comparable to
current levels 480 km to the south in boreal forests. We
hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a fire–vegetation
feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra expedites the
northward migration of boreal trees, with the potential to
accelerate the positive feedback associated with permafrost soil
carbon release.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/1">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/1</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/2">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/2</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/3">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/3</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/4">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/4</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Melting ice video 11 minutes]<br>
<b>Field Study Sheds New Light on Melt Zone</b><br>
Apr 5, 2021<br>
NASA Goddard<br>
Five years after a NASA-funded field study returned to to set up
camp once again in the melt zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a new
study adds to the rich findings from this innovative project. We
look back on this bold undertaking, which featured helicopters,
floating drifters plunging into holes in the ice, and all-night
shifts operating a sonic boogie board under endless daylight.
Scientist Larry Smith, at the time with UCLA and now with Brown
University, takes us back to the challenges on the ice and the
important findings made with the hard-won data.<br>
Read more:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/what-a-glacial-river-reveals-about-the-greenland-ice-sheet">https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/what-a-glacial-river-reveals-about-the-greenland-ice-sheet</a><br>
key image
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/riobehar_img_2031_stitch_11x7.png">https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/riobehar_img_2031_stitch_11x7.png</a><br>
video - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/3twOCNP1Gdg">https://youtu.be/3twOCNP1Gdg</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Yale and UN Development]<br>
<b>Planet, People, and Prosperity: Achim Steiner, Administrator,
United Nations Development Programme</b><br>
Apr 5, 2021<br>
Yale University<br>
On Tuesday, March 30th the Yale Institute for Global Health (YIGH)
welcomed Achim Steiner, Administrator of the UN Development
Programme, to discuss the nexus of the planet’s and people’s
wellbeing and how COVID-19 offers a glimpse of our future with Dr.
LaRon Nelson, Associate Dean for Global Affairs and Planetary Health
at the Yale School of Nursing and Dr. Robert Dubrow, Associate
Professor and Director of the Yale Center for Climate Change and
Health at the Yale School of Public Health.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGwOVqa9Dqw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGwOVqa9Dqw</a> [begins ~ 7 mins in, or
if you must, start 20 mins in]<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[from DeSmogBlog's databases of organizations and individuals
related to global warming]<br>
<b>An extensive database of organizations connected to Charles Koch
or the Koch network.</b><br>
<b>An extensive database of individuals connected to Charles Koch or
the Koch network.</b><br>
Welcome to DeSmog’s Koch Network Database where you can browse our
extensive research on the individuals and organizations linked to
Charles Koch or other members of the Koch family, Koch Industries,
and related entities. Choose a tab below to view the directories of
individuals and organizations profiled in the Koch Network Database.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.desmogblog.com/koch-network-database">https://www.desmogblog.com/koch-network-database</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Video -- TFP = total food productivity]<br>
<b>Anthropogenic Climate Change has Slowed Global Agricultural
Productivity Growth by 21%: 1 and 2</b><br>
Apr 5, 2021<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
I chat about an extremely significant brand spanking new scientific
paper that was published in the last few days called “Anthropogenic
Climate Change has slowed Agricultural Productivity Growth” in my
first Part 1 of 2 videos. <br>
<br>
In my second, Part 2 of 2 videos, I show the figures and graphs
backing my chat.<br>
<br>
A so-called econometric model of weather effects on Global
Agricultural TFP (Total Factor Productivity) between 1961 and 2020
shows that global agricultural TFP has been reduced due to
Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) by 21% since 1961. In a
counterfactual world without ACC, agricultural productivity would
have increased from 100 in 1961 to 210 in 2020; in our real world
ACC has shaved 2020 down to 190. Clearly, anthropogenic climate
change has already taken a big bite out of our global food supply
growth that has occurred since 1961. The growth has occurred because
of Agricultural Research and technologies that have increased food
productivity, but ACC is significantly cutting into those gains.
Warmer regions of the planet (Africa, Latin America, Caribbean) have
suffered a 26-34% reduction.<br>
<br>
Global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate
change. Although ACC had slowed global agricultural productivity
growth between 1961 and 2020 by 21%, the slowing was about 30% in
the latter half of the period (1989 to 2015) as compared to about
10% in the earlier half of the period (1961 to 1988). There are also
large regional cross country disparities, notably Africa has had
34% slowing, the Near East and North Africa 30%, and Latin American
countries 25.9% slowing. Cooler regions like North America have had
less slowing (12.5%) and Europe and Central Asia 7% slowing. This
regional variation has greatly exacerbated the inequalities between
poor and rich countries; the most affected region is sub-Saharan
Africa. <br>
<br>
In conclusion, Anthropogenic Climate Change is increasingly slowing
global agricultural gains that have occurred due to Agricultural
Research. These impacts are detectable and sizeable already; this is
not a case of something happening in 10 years or by 2050 or 2100.<br>
First one -- <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp2O8bcR-jo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp2O8bcR-jo</a><br>
Second -- <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P67Z14vzx2A">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P67Z14vzx2A</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[journal nature climate change]<br>
Published: 01 April 2021<br>
<b>Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural
productivity growth</b><br>
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Toby R. Ault, Carlos M. Carrillo, Robert G.
Chambers & David B. Lobell <br>
Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 306–312 (2021)<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the
historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that
growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric
model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor
productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual
climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on
TFP. Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global
agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is
equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The
effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in
warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to
ongoing climate change.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[media battleground - video discussion]<br>
<b>Breaking the Media's Climate Silence</b><br>
Apr 5, 2021<br>
Covering Climate Now<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlrWbipxpXE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlrWbipxpXE</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[more disinformation education]<br>
<b>How the oil industry made us doubt climate change</b><br>
By Phoebe Keane<br>
BBC News<br>
Published 20 September 2020<br>
As climate change becomes a focus of the US election, energy
companies stand accused of trying to downplay their contribution to
global warming. In June, Minnesota's Attorney General sued
ExxonMobil, among others, for launching a "campaign of deception"
which deliberately tried to undermine the science supporting global
warming. So what's behind these claims? And what links them to how
the tobacco industry tried to dismiss the harms of smoking decades
earlier?<br>
<br>
To understand what's happening today, we need to go back nearly 40
years.<br>
<br>
Marty Hoffert leaned closer to his computer screen. He couldn't
quite believe what he was seeing. It was 1981, and he was working in
an area of science considered niche.<br>
<br>
"We were just a group of geeks with some great computers," he says
now, recalling that moment.<br>
<br>
But his findings were alarming.<br>
<br>
"I created a model that showed the Earth would be warming very
significantly. And the warming would introduce climatic changes that
would be unprecedented in human history. That blew my mind."...<br>
<br>
Marty Hoffert was one of the first scientists to create a model
which predicted the effects of man-made climate change. And he did
so while working for Exxon, one of the world's largest oil
companies, which would later merge with another, Mobil.<br>
<br>
At the time Exxon was spending millions of dollars on
ground-breaking research. It wanted to lead the charge as scientists
grappled with the emerging understanding that the warming planet
could cause the climate to change in ways that could make life
pretty difficult for humans.<br>
<br>
Hoffert shared his predictions with his managers, showing them what
might happen if we continued burning fossil fuels in our cars,
trucks and planes.<br>
<br>
But he noticed a clash between Exxon's own findings, and public
statements made by company bosses, such as the then chief executive
Lee Raymond, who said that "currently, the scientific evidence is
inconclusive as to whether human activities are having a significant
effect on the global climate".<br>
<br>
"They were saying things that were contradicting their own
world-class research groups," said Hoffert.<br>
<br>
Angry, he left Exxon, and went on to become a leading academic in
the field.<br>
<br>
"What they did was immoral. They spread doubt about the dangers of
climate change when their own researchers were confirming how
serious a threat it was."<br>
<br>
So what changed? The record-breaking hot summer of 1988 was key. Big
news in America, it gave extra weight to warnings from Nasa
scientist Dr Jim Hansen that "the greenhouse effect has been
detected, and is changing our climate now".<br>
<br>
Political leaders took notice. Then UK Prime Minister Margaret
Thatcher acknowledged the great new global threat: "The
environmental challenge which confronts the whole world demands an
equivalent response from the whole world."<br>
<br>
In 1989, Exxon's strategy chief Duane Levine drew up a confidential
presentation for the company's board, one of thousands of documents
in the company's archive which were later donated to The University
of Texas at Austin.<br>
<br>
Levine's presentation is an important document, often cited by
researchers investigating Exxon's record on climate change science.<br>
<br>
"We're starting to hear the inevitable call for action," it said,
which risked what it called "irreversible and costly draconian
steps".<br>
<br>
"More rational responses will require efforts to extend the science
and increase emphasis on costs and political realities."...<br>
- -<br>
In a statement, ExxonMobil told the BBC that "allegations about the
company's climate research are inaccurate and deliberately
misleading".<br>
<br>
"For more than 40 years, we have supported development of climate
science in partnership with governments and academic institutions.
That work continues today in an open and transparent way.<br>
<br>
"Deliberately cherry-picked statements attributed to a small number
of employees wrongly suggest definitive conclusions were reached
decades ago."<br>
<br>
ExxonMobil added that it recently won the court case brought by the
New York Attorney General which had accused the company of
fraudulently accounting for the costs of climate change regulation.<br>
<br>
But academics like David Michaels fear the use of uncertainty in the
past to confuse the public and undermine science has contributed to
a dangerous erosion of trust in facts and experts across the globe
today, far beyond climate science or the dangers of tobacco.<br>
<br>
He cites public attitudes to modern issues like the safety of 5G,
vaccinations - and coronavirus.<br>
<br>
"By cynically manipulating and distorting scientific evidence, the
manufacturers of doubt have seeded in much of the public a cynicism
about science, making it far more difficult to convince people that
science provides useful - in some cases, vitally important -
information.<br>
<br>
"There is no question that this distrust of science and scientists
is making it more difficult to stem the coronavirus pandemic."<br>
It seems the legacy of "the tobacco playbook" lives on.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382">https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382">https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[an unconscious hurtle]<br>
Ben Ehrenreich/March 18, 2021<br>
<b>We’re Hurtling Toward Global Suicide</b><br>
Why we must do everything differently to ensure the planet’s
survival<br>
<br>
Audio
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.audm.com/?utm_source=newrepublic&utm_medium=playerembed&utm_campaign=suicide-prevention-ehrenreich&utm_content=default">https://www.audm.com/?utm_source=newrepublic&utm_medium=playerembed&utm_campaign=suicide-prevention-ehrenreich&utm_content=default</a><br>
<br>
On January 13, one week before the inauguration of Joe Biden as the
forty-sixth president of the United States and seven long days after
the storming of the Capitol by an armed right-wing mob, it was easy
enough to miss an article published in the journal Frontiers in
Conservation Science, despite its eye-catching title:
“Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future.” The
headline was itself a train wreck: six dully innocuous words piling
up in front of a modifier more suitable to a 1950s horror comic than
a sober, academic journal. But there it was: The 17 scientists who
co-wrote the article, the experts who peer-reviewed it, and the
journal’s editors did not consider the word “ghastly” too
sensational, subjective, or value-laden to describe the future
toward which our society is advancing with all the prudence and
caution of a runaway locomotive. The article’s message was simple:
Everything must change.<br>
<br>
On its current track, the authors wrote, “humanity is causing a
rapid loss of biodiversity and, with it, Earth’s ability to support
complex life.” As many as a million animal species—and 20 percent of
all species—are facing near-term extinction. Humans have altered 70
percent of the planet’s land surface and “compromised” or otherwise
despoiled two-thirds of its oceans, and the climate has only begun
to warm. Humanity—or some of us, anyway—“is running an ecological
Ponzi scheme in which society”—or some sectors of it—“robs nature
and future generations to pay for boosting incomes in the short
term.” Only a radical transformation of the systems that govern our
relations to one another and to the myriad forms of life with which
we share the planet, the authors concurred, could deliver any hope
of a “less-ravaged future.”...<br>
- - <br>
It is of course foolish to the point of derangement to imagine that
Joe Biden would consent to any such transformation, much less lead
the country toward one. Given the current political geography, it
would be equally whimsical to suppose that any American politician
or movement could ride to power on the message that this planet does
not belong to us, that we share it with the dead and the
still-to-be-born and with species we have not bothered to notice,
and that we must learn to live among them with generosity, humility,
and the sort of wisdom that does not come to human beings cheaply.
However, it would be just as naïve to believe that current political
configurations are any more stable or permanent than the climate, or
any less vulnerable to concerted human action. If we do actually
listen to the science, then we understand what ghastly futures await
us and we know how bold we must be to avoid them. Any politics that
presumes to be anything other than suicidal must take that knowledge
as its starting point.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://newrepublic.com/article/161575/climate-change-effects-hurtling-toward-global-suicide">https://newrepublic.com/article/161575/climate-change-effects-hurtling-toward-global-suicide</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
April 6, 2000 </b></font><br>
<p>April 6, 2000: Predicting the controversies that would define the
George W. Bush administration, New York Times columnist Bob
Herbert observes, "Mr. Bush's relationship to the environment is
roughly that of a doctor to a patient -- when the doctor's name is
Kevorkian."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/06/opinion/in-america-bush-goes-green.html?pagewanted=print">http://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/06/opinion/in-america-bush-goes-green.html?pagewanted=print</a>
<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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