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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>April 25, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[Climate Champion from YouTube Kids]<br>
<b>Arlington Community Electricity by Hardy school green team</b><br>
Mar 30, 2021<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Jg5tb8L-c">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Jg5tb8L-c</a><br>
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<br>
[A nod and opinion on the disinformation war]<br>
<b>It's Time to Kill Earth Day</b><br>
Andrew Couts<br>
4-22-21<br>
Hooray, it’s Earth Day! That one day of the year when we can all
come together and celebrate treating our planet with respect. From
first-graders to Jeff Bezos, everyone loves a good, ol’ fashion
Earth Day. So, I regret to inform you that we must kill Earth Day
and replace it with something more urgent.<br>
<br>
The first Earth Day in 1970 was a radical idea, and it had radical
results. Spearheaded as a national “teach-in” day by Sen. Gaylord
Nelson, a Wisconsin Democrat and famous conservationist, Earth Day
grew out of the civil rights movement. A burgeoning but localized
environmental movement inspired by author Rachel Carlson’s
best-selling 1962 book, Silent Spring, which detailed the
devastating environmental effects of the chemical DDT, fed into the
push as well. The devastating 1969 oil spill off the coast of Santa
Barbara, California, and the Cuyahoga River literally catching on
fire the same year added increased pressure to address the deluge of
pollution.<br>
<br>
For the first Earth Day, on April 22, 1970, a reported 20 million
Americans marched on behalf of their planet, solidifying
environmental issues as a major concern for Americans. What followed
was a spate of governmental action that is unthinkable today: The
passage of the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the creation
of the Environmental Protection Agency, which President Richard
Nixon signed into existence in December 1970. Today, Earth Day is
celebrated in nearly every country.<br>
<br>
Earth Day is, in short, largely responsible for the world’s
environmental awakening and the regulations to rein in pollution
that arose in the decades after that first iteration. The ripple
effects of Earth Day and the ideas it instilled and inspired are so
widespread and profound that they are virtually impossible to
adequately summarize. (I highly recommend listening to this episode
of NPR’s Thoughline to better understand Earth Day’s impact.)<br>
<br>
Yet today, Earth Day has lost its radical identity right at the
moment when that type of energy is essential to our continued
existence on this planet. It has, instead, become a “celebration”—a
Good Day for Brands™ to greenwash their environmental impacts by
announcing pledges, environmental-themed musicals, deals, and this
year, inexplicably, NFTs. As climate reporter Emily Atkin wrote in
her Heated newsletter, all of these PR pitches are “hot, useless
garbage” that have made Earth Day “hell on Earth” for environmental
journalists.<br>
<br>
Earth Day’s PR-friendly image is not a coincidence. The name “Earth
Day” itself is the invention of renowned ad man Julian Koenig, who
volunteered to help Sen. Nelson and Earth Day co-founder Denis Hayes
with their cause. (Fun fact: Julian Koenig is the father of Sarah
Koenig, creator of Serial.) And its widespread and enduring appeal
is arguably thanks to how palatable it was to mainstream—read:
white, suburban—America.<br>
<br>
But the increasingly overt brand-friendliness of Earth Day is not
merely an annoyance for cranky journalists. It poses a huge risk to
the planet and people by lulling us into a false sense of things
being marginally better. Big Oil’s main front group has spent the
day tweeting about its supposed green bonafides. But the greenest
bonafide would be it not existing. It would be Coke paying up for
the plastic pollution it creates. It would be acknowledging the
undue burden of pollution in communities of color, a legacy that
continues since the first Earth Day.<br>
<br>
Wilbur Thomas, a Black scientist, said in a speech on Earth Day
1970, “The nitty gritty issues relevant to Blacks is simply the fact
that a disproportionate number of Blacks are exposed to more
environmental health hazards than non-Blacks in addition to the
regular burden.”<br>
<br>
While the impacts of Earth Day are indisputable, so too is the
deficient action we’ve taken in the decades since its inception.
Humanity’s inaction over the past 51 years since Earth Day began has
led to a global plastics crisis, the destruction of 97% of Earth’s
ecosystems, melting glaciers, rising seas, water shortages,
increases in extreme weather, and a carbon saturation in the
atmosphere of 420 parts per million—up from 315 ppm when
measurements began in the 1950s. Carbon dioxide levels in the
atmosphere haven’t been this high for 3 million years.<br>
<br>
In other words, while Earth Day ignited our collective consciousness
around environmental issues and has, either directly or indirectly,
led to unfathomable progress, it still wasn’t enough to combat the
capitalistic forces that have led us to the yawning chasm stretching
out before us today. And we still have yet to achieve true
environmental justice that centers Black and brown communities
living in the shadow of smokestacks and freeways. There’s movement
to right those wrongs, yes. The youth climate movement and some
traditional environmental organizations are finally opening the tent
to communities of color. But we need the tent to grow even further
and for radical ideas to be closer to the center.<br>
<br>
At its inception, Earth Day was a revolutionary idea that marked a
turning point for politics, policy, and the planet. But the
celebratory, brand-friendly version of Earth Day we have today is
detrimental to the very cause for which it ostensibly exists.<br>
<br>
Earth Day must die because its existence allows for the illusion of
action amid a fog of feel-good celebration, as if the climate is not
currently on a collision course with catastrophe. Yes, Earth Day
provides a handy anniversary for politicians to take real climate
action, but the day itself has become scenery rather than the engine
for change that we desperately need.<br>
<br>
We need a new Earth Day with as much potency as the first Earth Day
if we are to address the challenges that lay before us. We need a
new idea to blast apart the partisan divides and monied forces that
have wrecked the climate for power and profit. We need a newfound
spark that, like the first Earth Day, further marries the movement
for racial equality with a revolution in clean energies. And we need
leaders who can help us ensure that this crucial moment of hope does
not evaporate into a vapor of eternal failure.<br>
Andrew Couts Deputy Editor, Gizmodo<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/its-time-to-kill-earth-day-1846739135">https://earther.gizmodo.com/its-time-to-kill-earth-day-1846739135</a><br>
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<p>[planning ahead]<br>
<b>Here’s How NYC Transit System Is Prepping For Sea Level
Rise—And Why It May Not Be Enough</b><br>
BY NATHAN KENSINGER<br>
APRIL 22, 2021<br>
<br>
New York City is surrounded by water, with over 130 neighborhoods
situated along 520 miles of coastline. Its populace of 8.3 million
residents—the largest metro area in the United States—relies
heavily on its vast transportation system. And as sea levels
continue to rise, the future of both the city and its
transportation network are in jeopardy.<br>
<br>
Coney Island is an ideal place to view this present-day peril.
Start on a dead-end stretch of Shore Parkway. The road here floods
with even a light rain, covering the broken concrete in thick mud.
On one side of the street is Coney Island Creek, where Hurricane
Sandy’s surge pushed ashore and inundated this Brooklyn
neighborhood in 2012.<br>
<br>
Coney Island Yard Complex, one of the largest rapid transit train
yards in the world, sits on the other side. This 74-acre facility
was flooded with 27 million gallons of seawater during the
hurricane, leaving the train yard crippled.<br>
<br>
“Coinciding with the high tide, the storm washed in water and
debris which quickly inundated the tracks, switches, motors and
signal equipment. In Sandy's wake, the yard more closely resembled
a lake than a storage area for subway trains,” New York’s
Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) wrote in a 2013
synopsis. “The storm left the track-switching operation at the
world's largest rapid transit maintenance and storage facility
unable to be controlled remotely.”<br>
<br>
Since 2018, the MTA has been working on a project to protect the
Coney Island Yard from future storms and sea level rise. The
authority built 21,000 feet of new drainage, nine flood gates, two
pumping stations and a 4,280-foot-long bridge above the yard,
elevating third-rail power lines and communications cables out of
the flood zone. They are also erecting a 12,000-foot-long
floodwall around the perimeter of the yard.<br>
<br>
This enormous flood barrier is not yet finished, but several
pieces can be seen along the muddy edge of Shore Parkway. It is a
brutal, utilitarian piece of work, made of metal sheets driven 30
feet underground that then stretch 8 to 14 feet toward the sky.
The wall currently ends at a porous metal fence lined with burst
sandbags, providing a stark reminder of what previously protected
the yard.<br>
<br>
Similar rebuilding and mitigation efforts are taking place around
the city. When Hurricane Sandy overwhelmed New York City, it
damaged almost every part of the transit system. Boats were pushed
onto train tracks, tunnels and subway stations flooded, and bus
depots and train yards were filled with corrosive saltwater.
During the storm, some of the MTA’s flood barriers were little
more than plywood and piles of sandbags.<br>
<br>
Once complete, these upgrades are intended to protect the yard and
the five boroughs from future cyclones and torrential
downpours—calamities whose rains, surges, and winds are being
boosted by the climate crisis. For those who have assessed the
threat of sea level rise in New York City, even this may not be
enough.<br>
<br>
One Enormous Challenge, Many Little Fixes<br>
After Superstorm Sandy, the MTA committed $7.7 billion toward
rebuilding and making its system more resilient. It also created a
Climate Adaptation Task Force to evaluate the threats facing the
transportation system and recommend solutions. One of its first
tasks was to determine what level of flooding to actually plan
for.<br>
<br>
“For the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), climate
change is not only an urgent reality, it is a reality to which all
six MTA agencies are already devoting extensive financial,
planning, and engineering resources,” the task force wrote in its
2017 report. “There is no responsible alternative,”<br>
<br>
Four of the MTA’s six branches adopted different Design Flood
Elevations, but the water rise they anticipate is sobering.<br>
<br>
MTA Bridges and Tunnels, which operates seven bridges and two
tunnels in New York City, is preparing for a 500-year storm akin
to Hurricane Harvey. The Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North
Railroad systems manage 1,381 miles of tracks and 247 train
stations. They are preparing for flooding four feet above FEMA’s
Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE). And New York City Transit,
the regulators of all subways and buses, is designing for three
feet above a Category 2 hurricane.<br>
<br>
“The challenges that come from climate change are much greater
today than they were when many of the MTA’s features were designed
and created,” Projjal Dutta, the task force chair and the MTA’s
Director of Sustainability Initiatives, told Gothamist/WNYC in a
recent interview. The task force is currently tracking a dozen
projects. “Our interventions are rarely of a grand scale. They are
not storm surge barriers. But, they are small, they are numerous.”<br>
<br>
The finished projects include waterproofing Staten Island’s St.
George Terminal with a new drainage system, floodwalls, and
water-resistant plastic track ties. The authority built a seawall
along the Harlem River at the 207th Street Yard and installed
thousands of smaller barriers across Manhattan, including flood
doors and flex barriers at subway entrances.<br>
<br>
“A lot of the flooding happened through these very small things
that you would not think of as grand at all. But when there is 10
or 11 feet of standing water above these openings, that can amount
to a lot,” said Dutta. “In Lower Manhattan alone, there are
approximately 500 of them, from manhole covers to where the grates
equalize the air pressure.”<br>
<br>
Mission accomplished...for now<br>
In March, the MTA marked a major milestone in its rebuilding
efforts, completing repairs and upgrades on the last of its 11
tunnels that Sandy damaged. Inside the Rutgers Tube, where the F
line travels underneath the East River, they replaced 4,635 feet
of subway track, repaired 250 feet of tunnel wall and installed
hundreds of thousands of feet of signal and communications cables.<br>
<br>
“We are nearing the completion of all the Sandy-related resilience
work,” Janno Lieber, the President of MTA Construction &
Development, recently told Gothamist/WNYC. “This is huge stuff. I
mean the whole system, we needed to move the controls out of the
flood zone. We’ve needed to harden a ton of infrastructure to keep
water out. We’ve needed to increase pumping capacity in 11 tunnels
that were deluged.”<br>
<br>
Ultimately, the MTA’s investment will only protect the transit
system for a limited period of time. In its March 2019 report, the
New York City Panel on Climate Change projected that the city is
facing between 1.25 and 9.5 feet of sea level rise by the end of
the century. This will permanently flood some neighborhoods,
augmenting tidal flooding and storm surges along the way.
According to one of the report’s authors, a large-scale managed
retreat from the waterfront seems inevitable.<br>
<br>
“It will be a city at higher elevations,” said Dr. Klaus Jacob, a
geophysicist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, who served
on the city’s climate panel from 2008 to 2019. He anticipates that
residents in dozens of coastal neighborhoods will need to relocate
to higher ground as sea levels rise.<br>
<br>
“This will cost at least in the hundreds of billions as a project
because it’s not just the housing,” Jacob added. “If you move
around hundreds of thousands of people, it will [mean] changes for
school capacity, for medical facilities, parks, libraries, you
name it. The whole infrastructure of the city will have to adapt
to this migration.”<br>
<br>
A managed retreat of this scale would influence the MTA’s
infrastructure, especially its coastal train routes, which would
have to be moved inland, according to Jacob. This would be
extremely difficult, given the density of the region’s buildings
and other infrastructure.<br>
<br>
“Many of them are at such low lying places,” said Jacob. “The only
opportunity I see, if we want to modernize and stabilize our train
connections in the Atlantic coastal areas, is to go to elevated
tracks.”<br>
<br>
Jacob has worked on several assessments of how sea level rise will
impact the MTA, including a pre-Sandy evaluation that predicted
some of the storm damage. In a more recent analysis, he and a team
of Columbia engineering graduate students evaluated how the MTA’s
new network of approximately 4,000 flood measures in Manhattan
would fare during another Sandy.<br>
<br>
“It was amazing how much the leakage rate or the flooding of the
subway had gone down. It was essentially eliminated,” said Jacob.
“That would get you way beyond the year 2050 and maybe even later,
depending on the rate of sea level rise.”<br>
<br>
But that is if the system performs precisely as designed. The team
tested what would happen if certain singular failures occur. They
found that if just one barrier at a subway entrance were to fail,
it would be almost like the other 3,999 odd barriers weren’t
there.<br>
<br>
“There’s no redundancy in the system,” said Jacob, who recommended
that the MTA create an entirely new set of backups for its
Manhattan flood protection. “It’s the famous weakest link in the
chain.”<br>
<br>
With many pieces of its infrastructure at or below sea level, the
MTA is painfully aware of the threats posed by the climate crisis.
The Metro-North’s Hudson line is located at the edge of the Hudson
River. The A train barely skims above Jamaica Bay. Elevating or
relocating train lines and moving facilities to higher ground may
eventually become necessary, but the MTA is saving those decisions
for a later date.<br>
<br>
“Right now, we are not retreating, we are battening down the
hatches and making sure that all of our systems can manage the
risk that has been created by climate change,” said Lieber from
MTA Construction & Development. “We learned a lot from the
Sandy experience. No part of the city was hit harder than the MTA,
so we are trying to put all those lessons into effect. So, I am
going to leave [it] to wiser heads, the question of retreat.”<br>
<br>
Columbia University’s Earth Institute will convene a conference
this June to investigate the question At What Point Managed
Retreat? It is a conundrum facing cities around the world. For
Jacob, the answer is clear.<br>
<br>
“Why don’t we start to plan for that now. That means our land use
and zoning will have to be updated now,” said Jacob. “New York
City better adapt. Because if it’s not adapting, it’s doomed.”<br>
<br>
Full disclosure: Nathan Kensinger will be an unpaid panelist at
the Columbia University academic conference on managed retreat
mentioned in this article.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://gothamist.com/news/heres-how-nyc-transit-system-is-prepping-for-sea-level-riseand-why-it-may-not-be-enough">https://gothamist.com/news/heres-how-nyc-transit-system-is-prepping-for-sea-level-riseand-why-it-may-not-be-enough</a><br>
</p>
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[Legacy of Kivalina v Exxon]<br>
<b>The Life and Death of a Pioneering Environmental Justice Lawyer</b><br>
How Luke Cole and an Alaskan community spearheaded a landmark
climate lawsuit against fossil fuel giants — and helped empower
other marginalized communities to stand up for themselves.<br>
Headshot of author Rico Moore<br>
By Rico Mooreon Apr 7, 2021 <br>
- -<br>
Following Cole’s death, most people believed it was a tragic
accident, but some speculated it may have been intentional. However,
Caroline Farrell, Cole’s colleague, doubts this is the case, saying
that such a monumental loss may have led some to believe there was a
monumental reason for it. She believes Cole’s death might have been
the result of a very bad set of circumstances. This conclusion is
the consensus of those closest to him.<br>
<br>
Harris, the founding board chair of Cole’s legal nonprofit, says
that although the movement lost a powerful figure when Cole died,
the vision he was working for — “of empowerment for the poor and
communities of color, and his desire to stop this system of
extraction and accumulation” — is in some ways more powerful than
before. “I feel the loss personally for this person that I cared
about,” she said. “But I think the work really continues, and that
he is present in the work.”<br>
<br>
Cole’s bold and innovative work with the people of Kivalina lives on
as the community today pursues climate justice through the United
Nations.<br>
<br>
“Whatever he did was designed to empower us, to give us a voice.”<br>
<br>
Collen Swan, Kivalina citizen<br>
In January 2020, Kivalina and the Louisiana Tribes brought their
joint complaint to the UN, alleging that the U.S. government has
failed to protect them from the impacts of climate change, and have
thus violated a number of their human rights: to self-determination,
cultural heritage, subsistence and food security, individual and
collective rights to safe drinking water, physical and mental
health, and an adequate standard of living.<br>
<br>
The UN responded to the complaint on September 15, 2020, and will
soon be conducting a site visit to investigate the claims.<br>
<br>
“The tribe feels that the government failed them in the efforts of
relocating the village,” Kivalina tribal administrator Millie Hawley
said, “and they’re looking for funding to relocate the village —
that risk of losing their lives now — it used to be just losing
infrastructure — but now it’s losing lives actually in the event of
an ocean storm surge.” <br>
<br>
“Once you’ve made the connections between environmental harm and
human rights, then climate change as this massive global
environmental harm would adversely affect human rights in all kinds
of ways,” said John Knox, Wake Forest University law professor and
former UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment. He
said Cole’s efforts with Kivalina can be thought of as part of a
larger movement to take a rights-based approach to environmental
issues, and climate change is primary among them.<br>
<br>
Knox says some of the most successful climate lawsuits globally are
grounded in human rights arguments. And according to Knox, the UN
Human Rights Council is currently considering whether or not to
appoint a Special Rapporteur on human rights and climate change.<br>
<br>
The U.S. Ambassador to the UN didn’t respond to requests for comment
regarding the complaint.<br>
<br>
Today, Kivalina’s immediate prospects for relocating are dim, but
the community continues to fight for the resources to adapt to the
changing climate. Between 2009 and 2010, the community began
construction of a rock revetment — essentially a sea wall — but
funding ran out before it could be finished. Although it has served
to protect Kivalina’s people to some degree from storm surges and
flooding, this rocky barrier will only last 10 to 15 years, and
according to Hawley, the revetment is already sinking into the ocean
— by eight feet according to her estimate. In 2019, the Alaska
Department of Transportation started building an evacuation bridge
and road connecting the beleaguered Arctic island to the mainland.
But seven miles inland, at the new road’s end, the village’s new
school has only just begun construction, with completion scheduled
for August 2022. A large bus barn is scheduled for completion by
this fall, which can serve as shelter if the school isn’t complete,
according to the school district.<br>
<br>
But the disappearance of protective sea ice has hit home for the
tribe in other major ways too, according to Hawley. “It’s even hard
to talk about because it’s a dying culture,” Hawley said. “We used
to harvest our bearded seal and live on our seal oil and meat
throughout the winter every year, and we never worried about food,
but after two or three years without the barrier, due to lack of ice
… it really affected us in that way,” she said. <br>
<br>
Meanwhile, the planet continues to warm rapidly and Kivalina is
still very much under existential threat — more so with each degree
of warming and each passing storm season. Some reports suggest
Kivalina may be uninhabitable as early as 2025. Nevertheless, its
citizens are still fighting for their future as a sovereign tribal
nation, trying to survive climate change with their culture intact
by relocating off the island. <br>
<br>
Like the people of Kivalina with whom he worked, Cole never gave up.
He only did so because he died. Those who knew him well say he was
only getting started. His task? Infusing climate change mobilization
with the tools of environmental justice law he’d worked so hard to
develop. His goal? No less than changing an oppressive system that
is destroying the planet. And although his work as an environmental
justice lawyer is over, it continues on in those he influenced,
knew, worked with, and loved.<br>
<br>
“The voice that he gave me will never be silenced because of what he
did for us,” Swan said. “I’m not the only one either.”<br>
<br>
“Whatever he did was designed to empower us,” Swan said, “to give us
a voice. It didn’t stop with a judge’s decision or a government
decision. It didn’t end when we didn’t get what we wanted — no
matter what it is — no matter what avenue we took. It didn’t stop.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.desmog.com/2021/04/07/luke-cole-environmental-justice-law-kivalina/">https://www.desmog.com/2021/04/07/luke-cole-environmental-justice-law-kivalina/</a><br>
- -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6656724/Louisiana-Tribes-Complaint-to-UN.pdf">https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6656724/Louisiana-Tribes-Complaint-to-UN.pdf</a><br>
- -<br>
[Understanding the importance of a dismissed suit]<br>
<b>Kivalina v. ExxonMobil Corp</b>., No. 4:08-cv-01138 (N.D. Cal.),
is a lawsuit filed on February 26, 2008, in a United States district
court. The suit, based on the common law theory of nuisance, claims
monetary damages from the energy industry for the destruction of
Kivalina, Alaska by flooding caused by climate change. The damage
estimates made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the
Government Accountability Office are placed between $95 million and
$400 million. This lawsuit is an example of greenhouse gas emission
liability.[1]<br>
<br>
The suit was dismissed by the United States district court on
September 30, 2009, on the grounds that regulating greenhouse
emissions was a political rather than a legal issue and one that
needed to be resolved by Congress and the Administration rather than
by courts.[2] An appeal was filed with the Ninth Circuit Court of
Appeals in November 2009.[3] In September 2012, the panel of appeals
judges decided not to reinstate the case.[4] The city appealed the
court of appeals decision to the U.S. Supreme Court and on May 20,
2013 the Supreme Court justices decided not hear the case,
effectively ending the city's legal claim.[5]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivalina_v._ExxonMobil_Corp">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivalina_v._ExxonMobil_Corp</a>.<br>
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</p>
<p>[A class case for 10°C above]<br>
MAY 22, 2020<br>
<b>10C Above Baseline</b><br>
BY ROBERT HUNZIKER<br>
evertheless, “10C Above Baseline” explores a dystopian world
envisioned by John Doyle, Sustainable Development Policy
Coordinator of the European Commission in Brussels.<br>
***<br>
Doyle’s thesis of a 10C world, within current lifetimes, is based
upon sober-minded analysis. Of course, it envisions a planet of
few or maybe no humans. Granted, it is hard to believe, very hard
to accept.<br>
<br>
Whereas, the Paris Agreement of 2015 officially set goals amongst
the nations of the world to employ mitigation measures to hold
global temperatures to 2C but preferably 1.5C above
pre-industrial, which is mid 18th century (1750s), except for IPCC
measurement purposes, which are markedly different from the 18th
century pre-industrial baseline, to wit: ”The baseline period from
which climate change is expressed has also moved on (a common
baseline period of 1986–2005 is used throughout, consistent with
the 2006 start-point for the RCP scenario).” (Source: AR5 Fifth
Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Hmm!<br>
<br>
Meanwhile, 1.5C has become a cause célèbre among climate
activists. But, there’s a rub: In order to stay below 1.5C,
greenhouse gas emissions, like CO2, need to fall off a cliff,
decreasing by 15% per year, starting in year 2020. (Doyle)<br>
<br>
Categorically, that’s impossible to achieve for a host of reasons.<br>
<br>
Not so long ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) released a special report about 2C versus 1.5C. Its
findings were grim, namely: At 2˚C (3.6˚F) rather than at 1.5˚C
(2.7˚F) the danger to ecosystems increases several fold.<br>
<br>
As things stand, the world has a comfort zone of 1.5C to 2.0C with
1.5C the clear preference. But still, at 2.0C all kinds of bells
and whistles go off, e.g., (1) severe heat events increase by
2.6xs (2) the Wet Bulb Temperature WBT-impact (3) 2xs vertebrate
species loss and (4) 90% of coral reefs gone for good, etc., etc.,
etc. as key ecosystems that support and originate life suffer.<br>
<br>
Keeping in mind (lest you forget) there is no Planet B.<br>
<br>
So then, what of 10C?<br>
<br>
John Doyle, a climate resilience analyst, has studied the climate
system and discussed findings at a UN Aid Agencies meeting, John
Doyle, Sustainable Development Policy Coordinator of the European
Commission, Information Society and Media Directorate-General.<br>
<br>
Doyle is working on mainstreaming Sustainable Development in the
Information Society Directorate General with special emphasis on
business partnerships to address energy and climate security.<br>
<br>
A synopsis of Doyle’s disturbing analysis and speech follows
herein:<br>
<br>
One of the video power-point headlines boldly proclaims: “Science…
We’re heading fast for 10C degrees, 4C is extinction.”<br>
<br>
Doyle: “Roughly speaking, you’ve been told that we may be heading
for 1.5c or 2c degrees above pre-industrial temperature. That’s
not true. That’s basically very old science, and it’s essentially
inaccurate. There isn’t a single independent scientist of the
world that would support that position now. We’re actually heading
for 10 degrees warming that could happen within 20 to 30 years.
And, on the way to 10 degrees, we pass 4 degrees. Now, four
degrees is interesting because that’s extinction for our species.
So keep that one in mind. I’m not just making this up.”<br>
<br>
All of which prompts a question: Along the way to 10C, when does
4C happen? If 10C is on the docket within 20-30 years, as
explained by Doyle, then it’s probably safe to assume 4C within
8-15 years. Regrettably, that’s within the lifetimes of pretty
much the entire world population now approaching 8B. Talk about
impact!<br>
<br>
Predicting a 10C uplift in global temperatures beyond
pre-industrial is a stunning proposition, absolutely stunning!
Indeed, his speech is a death-defying prognostication, but truth
be told, nobody will believe it!<br>
<br>
A review of literature of other climate scientists adds some
dimension to Doyle’s work, to wit: In December 2019, the Potsdam
Institute For Climate Research, one of the world’s premier climate
research orgs, caused an international stir with a paper published
in Nature: “Climate Tipping Points – Too Risky To Bet Against.”<br>
<br>
A very interesting statement is found within the Potsdam paper, as
follows: “The Earth system has been unstable across multiple
timescales before, under relatively weak forcing caused by changes
in Earth’s orbit. Now we are strongly forcing the system, with
atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature increasing at
rates that are an order of magnitude higher than those during the
most recent de-glaciation… Atmospheric CO2 is already at levels
last seen around four million years ago, in the Pliocene epoch. It
is rapidly heading towards levels last seen some 50 million years
ago — in the Eocene — when temperatures were up to 14 °C higher
than they were in pre-industrial times.”<br>
<br>
Here’s more Doyle: “Since the last International Panel on Climate
Change Assessment Report AR5 was published… All of this has come
to light since then. We’ve realized that we have been living in a
fool’s paradise, thinking that nice gentle reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions and maybe changing to electric cars
should see us over the bump. This is simply not the case.”<br>
<br>
Doyle’s outlook darkens, as he declares the geo-engineering
concept of sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere nowhere near ready
for deployment and likely not possible because of the Second Law
of Thermodynamics, which essentially says: “You cannot build a
machine to clean up the mess you made making the machine.”<br>
<br>
Heaven forbid! People are depending upon geo-engineering to bail
us out. What if it doesn’t?<br>
<br>
Here’s more Doyle: “In the last 30 years we’ve been able to
measure that the total amount of vertebrate life on this planet
has collapsed by 99%. And, what’s left, at least from the tiny
human being up to the big elephant are found loads of cows, loads
of humans, and virtually no wild animals. It’s way worse than
that. There are no wild animals. There are no fish. There are no
insects. Your microbiome inside your own body is collapsing, at
least 20% to 30% down over the last 20 to 30 years… We are not on
the verge of the sixth mass extinction; we’re in the middle of it.
And very likely to be part of it.”<br>
<br>
Additionally, the Wet Bulb Temperature effect received mention:
“This gives you the temperatures that living creatures can
survive… on the left hand side you can see 42C (107.6F) degrees.
Human beings can easily survive well over that. But there’s a
catch… The fittest human being on the planet, if he is in a
temperature of 36C degrees (96.8F) where there’s 100% relative
humidity, he dies in six hours.”<br>
<br>
“I (Doyle) was in a city (Brussels) in Europe in August. The
temperature was 36C degrees and the relative humidity was 40. It
only needed to be one and a half degrees higher and about 20%
extra humidity for tens of thousands of people to be dying in the
streets.”<br>
<br>
Doyle provided additional evidence of the ongoing extinction
event. Flying insect populations have crashed by 80% in Europe
over the past 40 years. We don’t survive without insects… no
questions asked!<br>
<br>
But, there is one question: What causes 80% of flying insects to
drop dead within a half-lifespan of an average human? Something is
horribly wrong!<br>
<br>
Solutions? Eliminating fossil fuels in enough time to stem
excessive warming will not work for numerous reasons. Not only
that, fossil fuels account for approximately 80% of all energy
production, and there’s no way that’ll change soon enough to help
within the next 10 years.<br>
<br>
As an aside to Doyle’s terrifying speech, according to the IEA
(International Energy Agency) fossil fuel producers, like the
U.S., Russia, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, plan on increasing oil and
gas production by 120% by 2030, continuing to emit CO2 of
ever-higher levels, bringing on more blanketed heat. China is
embarking on mega-mega construction of new coal-burning power
plants, and so is India, and Japan recently announced its
intention to build 22 new coal-burning plants over the next 5
years, continuing to emit CO2 in ever-larger numbers, bringing on
more blanketed heat. All of that in the face of irrefutable
evidence of acceleration of climate change well beyond the
influence of natural events. Maybe the world really is crazy after
all.<br>
<br>
According to Doyle: “The only option for “getting out of this mess
is to stop pretending that we are going green.” To survive as a
species, we must switch to local production and forget globalized
growth. It’s over. The economic growth paradigm of neoliberal
capitalism is incompatible with human survival, especially for
life-supporting ecosystems.<br>
<br>
It is worth noting that two respected French climate research
organizations reached conclusions somewhat similar to Doyle’s but
with much less gusto in their numbers. National Centre for
Meteorological Research (CNRM) and Institute Pierre Simon Laplace
Climate Modelling Centre in Paris contend, if CO2 emissions
continue “business as usual,” then temperatures could increase by
7°C by 2100.<br>
<br>
Still, it is incomprehensible, not impossible, that temperatures
skyrocket 10C over the next 20-30 years. Is Doyle’s assessment
realistic? What if it is?<br>
<br>
Yet, Doyle’s thesis need not be 100% correct to disrupt and
destroy ecosystems and cause panic amongst humankind. If he is 50%
correct, large portions of the planet become uninhabitable. That’s
just for starters.<br>
<br>
And, if Doyle’s daunting analysis is only 25% correct,
hard-charging 2C-plus circumstances will change life forever, less
agricultural land, higher tidal flooding, and eco migrants by the
hundreds of millions roaming countryside in massive waves of human
flesh, searching for anything edible.<br>
<br>
Indeed, it’s always instructive to look at other viewpoints, for
example, the prestigious Met Office Hadley Centre/UK, assuming
“business as usual” expects 4C by 2055. That’s more than enough to
do the dirty work.<br>
<br>
An International Panel on Climate Conference at Oxford University
conducted a program entitled “4 Degrees and Beyond” that examined
the likelihood of 4C, if “business as usual.” Their conclusion:
Half of the planet turns uninhabitable.<br>
<br>
All of which highlights a problem. “Business as usual” is
thriving!<br>
<br>
(… already looking past the speed bump COVID19)<br>
<br>
According to Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, CO2 emissions for the
month of April 2020 were 416.18 ppm versus 413.52 ppm for the
month of April 2019. And, for added context, readings of 371.66
ppm were recorded for the month of April 2000.<br>
<br>
“Business as usual” has not slowed down one iota in 62 years ever
since Mauna Loa Observatory started collecting CO2 data in 1958.
Noticeably, it has already accelerated+60% this century.<br>
<br>
Maybe Doyle is onto something!<br>
Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at <a
class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="mailto:rlhunziker@gmail.com">rlhunziker@gmail.com</a>.</p>
<p>- -<br>
[interactive graphics by YoursTruly - because scientists were shy
about connecting to scenarios]<br>
<b>How bad can it be? ...and when?</b><br>
The chart below has linked hotspots. In the lower right corner of
the chart notice the temperature line for the current year.
There are seven future projections plotted.<br>
<br>
The graphic IPCC Chart uses data from special report emissions
scenario for the IPCC. Links below in blue are summarized
projections for each degree change taken from the book "Six
Degrees, Our Future on a Hotter Planet" - Mark Lynas and videos
segments from National Geographics.<br>
For an excellent video introduction to the global warming problem
see the National Geographic video of Global Warming 101<br>
Six degrees <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://localsteps.org/6degreemap.html">http://localsteps.org/6degreemap.html</a><br>
Six Degrees [is 10.8<span style="color: rgb(17, 17, 17);
font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size:
20.8281px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing:
normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2;
word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;
background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness:
initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial; display: inline !important; float: none;">°F</span> see
the video] <br>
The apocalypse.<br>
The end-Permian mass extinction of 251 million years ago was
associated with six degrees of warming, and wiped out 90% of life
on Earth.<br>
Huge firestorms sweep the planet as methane hydrate fireballs
ignite.<br>
Seas turn anoxic and release poisonous hydrogen sulphide.<br>
Humanity’s very survival as a species in question.<br>
Notes from Mark Lynas author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a
Hotter Planet<br>
Six Degrees video description from National Geographic<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://localsteps.org/howbad.html">http://localsteps.org/howbad.html</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming -
April 25, 1999 </b></font><br>
<p>April 25, 1999: Reviewing former ABC News correspondent Bob
Zelnick's book "Gore: A Political Life" (which was published by
the right-wing outfit Regnery), the New York Times' Richard L.
Berke notes that the book does a hatchet job on the Vice
President's climate advocacy:<br>
<br>
"For example, while some environmentalists describe Gore's book
'Earth in the Balance' as an impressive work that incorporates his
knowledge of global warming and other issues, Zelnick dismisses it
as 'pathetically one-dimensional in its view of Western
civilization, shabby in its ignorance of economics, simplistic in
its approach to problem solving.'"<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/books/99/04/25/reviews/990425.25berket.html">http://www.nytimes.com/books/99/04/25/reviews/990425.25berket.html</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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