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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>May 2, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[Ready<b>]<br>
</b> <b>Experts predict massive wildfire season</b><br>
BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) – In California, wildfire season has
morphed into a year-long problem. Now, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Association says over 97% of the state is experiencing a
drought. This comes after the most severe wildfire season in
California’s history. Weather experts say most of Kern County is
experiencing extreme drought, so first responders say you should
prepare for a hot and smoky summer.<br>
<br>
“We’ve not had areas in our mountain communities that have had a
good recovery of moisture in their fuels,” said Andrew Freeborn,
Public Information Officer for the Kern County Fire Department. “So
things are going to burn early in the year, as if it’s the end of
summer and things have been drying out all year long.”<br>
<br>
Wildfires scorched over 4 million acres of land across the state
last year, affecting over 10,000 buildings. Freeborn says
preparation can help keep your home safe.<br>
<br>
“Now’s the time to get those wood piles moved away,” said Freeborn.
“Keep a nice clean area around the home, reduce the dry vegetation.
Get this cleared off of our roofs, out of the rain gutters.”<br>
<br>
Firefighters say you should also fill a backpack with essentials
like food, water, and medication.<br>
<br>
“Building a to-go bag and an escape route in advance,” said
Freeborn. “That way no matter what the emergency is, wildfire or
other, you’re ready at a moment’s notice to flee.”<br>
<br>
Experts say you should keep that bag packed year round.<br>
<br>
“There’s become this notion of fire season. We don’t have that
anymore,” said Freeborn.<br>
<br>
If you want to sign up for emergency alerts and see more fire safety
tips, you can use the state’s website, readyforwildfire.org.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.kget.com/news/local-news/experts-predict-massive-wildfire-season/">https://www.kget.com/news/local-news/experts-predict-massive-wildfire-season/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[16 min video report on the history ]<br>
<b>Why This Fight May Be the End of Oil Pipelines</b><br>
Apr 29, 2021<br>
Bloomberg Quicktake<br>
With the development of renewable energy accelerating, the pipeline
business increasingly finds itself against the ropes. The Biden
administration dealt a death blow to Keystone XL, and the fate of
similar projects remains uncertain. As fossil fuel dependency begins
to wane, this multibillion dollar industry could soon go the way of
the dinosaurs.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6QvM5Heewo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6QvM5Heewo</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[I'm older people, what does this mean?]<br>
<b>Climate crisis: our children face wars over food and water, EU
deputy warns</b><br>
Exclusive: Frans Timmermans says older people need to make
sacrifices to protect the future<br>
Older people will have to make sacrifices in the fight against
climate change or today’s children will face a future of fighting
wars for water and food, the EU’s deputy chief has warned.<br>
<br>
Frans Timmermans, vice-president of the EU commission, said that if
social policy and climate policy are not combined, to share fairly
the costs and benefits of creating a low-carbon economy, the world
will face a backlash from people who fear losing jobs or income,
stoked by populist politicians and fossil fuel interests.<br>
<br>
He said: “It’s not just an urgent matter – it’s a difficult matter.
We have to transform our economy. There are huge benefits, but it’s
a huge challenge. The biggest threat is the social one. If we don’t
fix this, our children will be waging wars over water and food.
There is no doubt in my mind.”...<br>
Tackling climate change will be many times cheaper than the
disruption that global heating will cause, as well as bringing
benefits to health, and the costs have fallen dramatically in recent
years. However, the shift away from fossil fuels will mean the end
of some traditional jobs such as coalmining, and the costs of change
will fall unequally on different sectors of society unless
politicians step in.<br>
“Where I see a huge risk is that you get an alliance between those
who don’t want change because they see their interest affected,
whether it’s in fossil fuels or in traditional economic circles,”
Timmermans told the Guardian in an interview. “Those interests
combine with the fear of negative social consequences. Then you
could get a counter-momentum where people say, ‘Hang on, not too
fast, people cannot stomach this.’”<br>
<br>
He added: “Those of us who understand we need to move fast should
make the social issue the pivotal issue in all of this. I really
call upon all of those in the climate movement to join me in
focusing on the social issue more than they’ve done in the past.
Because this could become the biggest stumbling block.”<br>
<br>
He warned that sacrifices would be needed from the older generation
to ensure that young people can live in a safe climate. Today’s
older people were the beneficiaries of a previous generation’s
sacrifice, and were now being called on to make changes themselves,
he said.<br>
<br>
“Sometimes I wonder whether we are aware of the transformation we’re
heading to, and how profound it is. It’s an effort comparable to
restructuring after a violent conflict. I used to talk to my
grandparents and my parents about how they saw this, after the war.
They said, ‘Well, we sacrificed a lot because we knew our children
would be better off.’ And this feeling is not there yet in our
society.”<br>
<br>
Changing people’s lives today would be difficult, but the benefits
would be felt by today’s children, he added. “This for politics is a
huge, huge challenge. We need to recapture that feeling of a purpose
– doing something not for yourself, but for others, which I think
has always led to society being at its best.”...<br>
Any sacrifice would be mild for most, such as the inconvenience of
having a house renovated to low-carbon standards, or switching to
electric transport, and eating less meat. But for some it could
involve a change of job or living patterns.<br>
<br>
“We’re not asking people to go back to 1930s situations, we’re not
asking people to live in caves and munch grass. It’s taking perhaps
one or two steps back to be able to jump much further in to the
future.”<br>
<br>
Timmermans’ warnings reflect a growing concern among climate experts
that politicians have failed to show people the benefits of a
low-carbon society, which include cleaner air and water, more
livable cities, and higher levels of health and wellbeing, as well
as defusing the climate crisis. Politicians, including Donald Trump
and Republicans in the US, have presented tackling climate breakdown
as a cost, and many people are fearful for their jobs.<br>
<br>
Timmermans acknowledged that some people in traditional industries
would have to change, and said the main role for politicians was to
make this easier. Reskilling people in industries such as fossil
fuel and power generation would be key.<br>
<br>
He pointed to Poland, which is highly dependent on coal. “They have
a very high level of engineering, of education – there’s a huge
potential there [in a low-carbon economy] for a country like Poland.
And there simply isn’t any future in coal. The longer you protract
[the change], the more painful and the more costly it will be.”<br>
<br>
Timmermans has a pivotal role this year, within the EU and globally,
as he leads the bloc’s green deal, intended to transform the
European economy to a low-carbon footing, and leads the bloc’s
climate efforts at Cop26, vital UN climate talks to be hosted by the
UK in Glasgow this November.<br>
<br>
On Thursday, he travelled to London for his first official visit
outside Brussels since the pandemic lockdowns began, with a
four-hour meeting in Downing Street with Alok Sharma, the UK’s Cop26
president and host of the talks. He is in weekly contact with John
Kerry, climate envoy to US president Joe Biden, and with China’s top
climate official, Xie Zhenhua.<br>
<br>
The EU has put in law its own climate target, of cutting emissions
by at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. This is one of
the most stretching climate targets yet put forward, alongside those
of the UK and the US, though campaigners have said the bloc could do
better and have called for a 60% target.<br>
<br>
Timmermans said no further improvement of the emissions target was
possible, but said he was asking EU member states to come forward
with more money for climate finance: assistance from rich to poor
countries to help them cut emissions and cope with the impacts of
climate breakdown.<br>
<br>
“Our approach is ambitious; I think we’ve set the stage. I hope
others will follow that example. I see what the UK is doing – that’s
even slightly more ambitious than what we’re doing. But then all the
others still have a lot of catching up to do. I think the onus here
is not on the EU, nor on the UK.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/30/climate-crisis-we-must-make-sacrifices-to-avoid-future-wars-says-eu-deputy-frans-timmermans">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/30/climate-crisis-we-must-make-sacrifices-to-avoid-future-wars-says-eu-deputy-frans-timmermans</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[make ready]<br>
<b>FEMA awards grants to reduce risks from wildfires on communities</b><br>
Bill Gabbert - May 1, 2021<br>
Two of three appear to be well deserved<br>
<br>
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has recently awarded
millions of dollars through their Disaster Mitigation Grant program.<br>
<br>
<b>Boulder County, Colorado</b><br>
Boulder County will receive a $1.2 million Pre-Disaster Mitigation
Grant for two wildfire mitigation actions. The first is to create
defensible space for approximately 500 properties. The second is
hazardous fuels reduction in an area of about 160 acres that will
provide further protection on 27 properties where defensible space
creation was previously completed.<br>
<br>
Homeowner efforts to create defensible space will not just be a
one-time effort. They will join the county’s wildfire mitigation
program, Wildfire Partners, to support continued maintenance of
defensible space over the long-term and conduct comprehensive
mitigation efforts to effectively reduce wildfire risk in a
community that has been severely affected by wildfire.<br>
<br>
FEMA is providing 75 percent of the project costs, a total of
$1,215,630. Funding is provided through FEMA’s Pre-Disaster
Mitigation Grant Program, which is designed to assist states, U.S.
territories, federally-recognized tribes, and local communities in
implementing a sustained pre-disaster natural hazard mitigation
program. The goal is to reduce overall risk to the population and
structures from future hazard events, while also reducing reliance
on federal funding in future disasters.<br>
<br>
<b>Ashland, Oregon</b><br>
The city of Ashland, Oregon will receive a $3 million Pre-Disaster
Mitigation Grant to create wildfire defensible space around 1,100
homes and to replace 23 wood shake roofs with ignition-resistant
roof material.<br>
<br>
The City of Ashland in Oregon’s Jackson County is in a high wildfire
risk zone. In the fall of 2020, neighboring communities of Talent
and Phoenix were devastated by the Almeda Fire, which burned 2,977
acres and destroyed over 2,300 structures.<br>
<br>
This mitigation project will help protect structures from wildfires
and will help homes in the Ashland area comply with recommended
local best practices for wildfire risk reduction. Replacing wood
shake roofs and providing defensible space to structures reduces the
risk of wildfire spread and diminishes the likelihood of wildfires
starting from embers. Once these highly flammable roofs are
replaced, these types of roofs will no longer be allowed in Ashland.<br>
<br>
The City is contributing a $1 million cost-share, making the total
value of this grant $4 million.<br>
<br>
The project includes hiring a project manager, preliminary
assessments of identified homes, surveys for vegetation removal,
scheduling and training of pre-approved contractors, removal of
vegetation, and reconstruction of roofs.<br>
<br>
<b>Rolling Hills, California</b><br>
A $1.1 million grant is going to the Los Angeles community of
Rolling Hills. The funds will replace overhead power lines and poles
with nearly 2,000 feet of underground cables and relocate
transformers to an area with less wildfire risk. The Los Angeles
Fire Department identified the area as a Very High Fire Hazard
Severity Zone, the highest designation with the greatest fire risk.<br>
<br>
The $1.5 million project includes a $1.1 million grant from FEMA’s
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), with the remaining $381,000
from non-federal sources.<br>
<br>
<b>Our take</b><br>
As we wrote last September, grants to mitigate wildfire risk and
improve community resiliency is a worthwhile investment:<br>
<br>
Provide grants to homeowners that are in areas with high risk from
wildland fires. Pay a portion of the costs of improvements or
retrofits to structures and the nearby vegetation to make the
property more fire resistant. This could include the cost of
removing some of the trees in order to have the crowns at least 18
feet apart if they are within 30 feet of the structures — many
homeowners can’t afford the cost of complete tree removal.<br>
<br>
But the limited amount of Federal taxpayer funds available must be
distributed where they can get the most bang for the buck and assist
a significant number of residents.<br>
<br>
Rolling Hills is a gated community of private roads on a hill
overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Los Angeles where the median
household income is $239,375 and the poverty rate is 1.6%. The
project will reduce wildfire ignitions along 2,000 feet of power
lines.<br>
<br>
Boulder County has a median household income of $83,019 and a
poverty rate of 10.7%. Their grant will mitigate hazards on 527
properties.<br>
<br>
Ashland, Oregan has a median income of $56,315 and a poverty rate of
18.4%. More than 1,100 homes will be affected by the project.<br>
<br>
Putting 2,000 feet of power lines underground in Rolling Hills could
reduce the chance of poorly designed or maintained electrical lines
starting fires. But a case could be made that the project should not
rank high enough nationwide to prevent other grants from being
approved that would have a much greater beneficial effect on larger
numbers of people with far less disposable income. In this affluent
Los Angeles community improvements on the electrical lines, in this
case, should be funded by the Los Angeles Department of Water and
Power.<br>
<br>
There is probably more than one resident in Rolling Hills who could
write a check for the project then go into the backyard and finish
their game of tennis...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/05/01/fema-awards-grants-to-reduce-risks-from-wildfires-on-communities/">https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/05/01/fema-awards-grants-to-reduce-risks-from-wildfires-on-communities/</a><br>
- -<br>
[more info]<b><br>
</b><b>
FEMA has more information about the Pre-Disaster Mitigation and
Hazard Mitigation Grant programs.</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/pre-disaster">https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/pre-disaster</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/hazard-mitigation">https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/hazard-mitigation</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[wine whine]<br>
<b>Climate Change Prompts Vineyard Yield Rethink</b><br>
As vineyards get hotter, are growers on the right track chasing
smaller yields?<br>
By James Lawrence - Friday, 30-Apr-2021..<br>
- -<br>
Franchetti adheres to a school of thought widely considered to be
(almost) incontrovertible. He points out that red wine derives its
color and flavor from its skins. Bigger bunches and berries
therefore means a less favorable juice to pulp ratio, with a
resulting nosedive in structure, color and flavor intensity. It is
generally agreed, however, that white wines are less obviously
affected by increased yields.<br>
<br>
Yet even here, particularly in the context of a warming climate,
we can find shades of grey. Is it better to harvest lower yields
and then possibly under-extract for fear of absorbing too much
aggressive tannin? Or to pursue higher volumes (and risk losing
complexity/structure), but carry out a longer, more extensive
maceration? Questions for wine geeks, sure, but issues which
nevertheless directly affect the quality of what ends up in your
glass of Super Tuscan.<br>
<br>
Perhaps we should just defer to the experts on this one.
Winemakers and growers in Napa have a minefield of experience in
managing drought and heat – we can learn much from their
experiences in balancing the twin desires for low (-ish) yields,
while simultaneously avoiding monstrous alcohol.<br>
<br>
"I think the story and solution to global warming is going to be
much more complex than simply avoiding unnecessarily low yields,"
says Quintessa winemaker Rebekah Wineburg.<br>
<br>
"I've noticed a significant difference in response depending on
the soil type and vineyard trellis system, but also depending on
vine age. It simply varies so much. That said, I do think that
chasing low yields has not been the correct approach, or at least
it has been an over-simplified approach, to achieving high
quality. Equally, a high crop load acts as a sink for water and
nutrients – in a hot and dry season the ability of the vine to
find and transport that amount of water is limited. So in this
respect, a lower crop load is more ideal in a drought situation."<br>
<br>
Historically, there has always been a certain lack of nuance in
the discussion around yield, and the relationship between quantity
and quality. Even if vintage conditions were uniform over a 10
year period – yeah right! – there surely cannot be an immutable
figure that achieves maximum quality. Neither is there a linear
correlation between quality and yield from one year to the next.
The subject is a paradise for enophiles who detest clarity and
certainty.<br>
<br>
"There is an undeniable relationship between quality and quantity,
but from my experience this is a complicated relationship that
negates a hard rule of thumb. Instead it is a relationship that
depends on the site, variety, vine density, and season," observes
Wineburg.<br>
<br>
"Just remember that quality does not necessarily increase with
decreased quantity. For example, Sauvignon Blanc vines need a crop
load in order to produce quality wines, and a low-yielding year
can produce wines on decreased quality, phenolic character, and
excessive sugar/alcohol."<br>
<br>
The only aspect which engenders a consensus is the subject of vine
balance – specifically the need to ensure that the canopy-
to-fruit ratio is maintained throughout the growing season. But as
global warming becomes a perpetual concern, all else is up for
fierce debate. There have been arguments about yield versus
quality for decades; but, as things start to really hot up, expect
more shades of grey than in a reproduction of Whistler's Mother.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2021/04/climate-change-prompts-vineyard-yield-rethink">https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2021/04/climate-change-prompts-vineyard-yield-rethink</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[not surprising]<br>
<b>‘Firefighters Out There in the Snow’: Wildfires Rage Early in
Parched West</b><br>
Firefighters in New Mexico, Arizona and California are battling
springtime blazes that have been fueled by a severe drought and
boosted by climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/30/us/wildfires-fire.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/30/us/wildfires-fire.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[philosophical and scientific]<br>
<b>Net Zero Is A Trap | Professor Wolfgang Knorr</b><br>
Apr 28, 2021<br>
Nick Breeze<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://genn.cc">https://genn.cc</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climateseries.com/climate-change-podcast/90-woilfgang-net-zero-trap">https://climateseries.com/climate-change-podcast/90-woilfgang-net-zero-trap</a><br>
<br>
In this episode of Shaping The Future, I am talking to Professor
Wolfgang Knorr - a climate scientist with over 25 years working for
many agencies and laboratories around the world. <br>
<br>
Currently, Wolfgang is a Senior Research Scientist at Lund
University measuring CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and
human activities among other things.<br>
<br>
This conversation is to discuss the concerns that he and his
colleagues have about the use or misuse of the term Net Zero and
their concern that collectively we are setting ourselves up for
failure in tackling the climate crisis.<br>
<br>
The safest pathway to the future means a radical transformation of
our societies and yet the net zero narratives is one of incremental
changes and technology that does not exist. In this critical moment
when we are expected to do what is necessary, instead, collectively
we have chosen to ignore the risks lock in for longer a business as
usual approach.<br>
<br>
A link to the article we are discussed is included here: <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/bsO8d3jfP2U?t=540">https://youtu.be/bsO8d3jfP2U?t=540</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[new understanding of ice melting]<br>
<b>New Study Changes Understanding of How Greenland’s Ice Melts</b><br>
Olivia Rosane Apr. 7, 2021<br>
A new study of Greenland's glacial rivers has important implications
for how scientists might model future ice melt and subsequent sea
level rise.<br>
<br>
Previously, researchers thought they could measure ice melt simply
by looking at the amount of meltwater sitting on top of glaciers and
in moulins — shafts in the glacier that empty rivers from the
surface to the interior, Earther explained. But the new study,
published in Geophysical Research Letters on Monday, found that a
glacier's speed increased when water pressure rapidly changed
beneath the ice sheet, NASA explained...<br>
- -<br>
To better understand the dynamics driving this melt, Smith and his
team traveled to the Russell Glacier in southwestern Greenland in
2016 and studied a glacial river, NASA said. The researchers
recorded the forward motion of the glacier itself, the amount of
meltwater pouring into the moulin and the amount of meltwater
pouring out from beneath the glacier at the water's edge. They
determined that changes in subterranean water pressure were driving
the glacier's overall speed.<br>
<br>
"Even if the cavities are small, as long as the pressure is ramping
up very fast, they will make the ice slide faster," Smith explained.<br>
<br>
NASA Glaciologist Dr. Lauren Andrews compared a glacier moving over
subterranean meltwater to car tires sliding on a wet road.<br>
<br>
"If you have a rapid perturbation of water going into the subglacial
system, you overwhelm the system, and so you create essentially a
layer of water at the interface that's not contained in channels or
cavities anymore," Andrews said.<br>
<br>
The way that water pressure drives glacier speed had never been
studied in the field before, NASA said. This new research now adds
168 hours of "rare in situ" measurements to understand the dynamics
of glacial rivers, which had previously been overlooked.<br>
<br>
"In 2015 when we started this study, there was surprisingly little
attention paid to the hydrology of streams and rivers on the ice
sheet, especially inland away from the ice edge, and we felt that
this was a critical scientific gap," Smith said in the video.<br>
<br>
The research supports the team's initial feeling.<br>
<br>
"These findings affirm the importance of supraglacial rivers to
subglacial water pressure and ice dynamics, even in relatively thick
ice," the researchers wrote.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-study-2651382155.html">https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-study-2651382155.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming May
2, 2008 </b></font><br>
<p> May 2, 2008: On MSNBC's "Countdown," Keith Olbermann and guest
Rachel Maddow react to GOP presidential candidate John McCain's
remarks earlier in the day linking the Iraq War to US energy
policy.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvY9e_ZxxyA">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvY9e_ZxxyA</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
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