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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>May 17, 2021</b></font></i> <br>
</p>
[even with a mask]<br>
<b>How climate change is making allergy season even worse</b><br>
If you think this pollen season is bad, brace yourself.<br>
Julia Jacobo -May 15, 2021, <br>
No, your (itchy, red) eyes are not deceiving you -- allergy season
is getting worse, and climate change is to blame.<br>
- -<br>
Human-caused climate change is responsible for more than 50% of the
long-term trend of pollen season getting longer and pollen counts
getting higher, a study published in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences in February, co-authored by Anderegg, found.<br>
<br>
"We all see it in our daily life," Sapkota said. "When the winter
temperatures are warmer, the tulips start to bloom early. The trees
start to bloom early. We have noticed that."...<br>
- -<br>
To alleviate allergy symptoms, Fatteh suggested taking preventative
measures such as keeping windows closed, changing AC filters and
using air purifiers. She also recommended wearing a hat and
sunglasses when going outside to keep pollen off of hair and
eyelashes...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/climate-change-making-allergy-season-worse/story?id=77505552">https://abcnews.go.com/Health/climate-change-making-allergy-season-worse/story?id=77505552</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[click to see the cartoon]<br>
<b>What do you even say to young people about climate change?</b><br>
First Dog on the Moon<br>
I’M SO SORRY ABOUT HOW YOUR FUTURES HAVE TURNED TO DUST! I TRIED TO
STOP IT!<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/17/what-do-you-even-say-to-young-people-about-climate-change">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/17/what-do-you-even-say-to-young-people-about-climate-change</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Ooops!, time to recalculate]<br>
<b>Extreme Heat Risks May Be Widely Underestimated and Sometimes
Left Out of Major Climate Reports</b><br>
New studies sharpen warnings for unlivable heat in the tropics, and
nearly unthinkable extremes in major Northern Hemisphere cities.<br>
By Bob Berwyn - May 16, 2021<br>
While scientists warn with increasing urgency that global warming is
sharply increasing the likelihood of deadly heat waves, many regions
are doing little to protect vulnerable populations. <br>
<br>
Recent research shows that the global death toll from extreme heat
is rising, but still, “Large parts of society don’t think of heat as
a threat,” said University of Oxford University climate scientist
Fredi Otto after researchers unveiled a series of new extreme heat
studies at the European Geosciences Union online conference last
month. <br>
<br>
The research discussed at the conference suggests that many models
are underestimating the short-term threat to the most vulnerable
areas—densely populated tropical regions—and that the threats aren’t
clearly communicated. And a study released in late April showed
that, in the U.S., the risk of power failures during such heatwaves
could increase the death toll. <br>
<br>
Last week’s updates to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s
Climate Indicators website, which had been delayed for years by the
Trump administration, showed that major U.S. cities experienced
three times as many heat waves—four or more days with temperatures
that should only occur every 10 years—in the 2010s as during the
1960s. The season in which heat waves occur has lengthened by 47
days. In addition to heat exhaustion, recent research also showed
that extreme heat dramatically increases the chances of pre-term
births...<br>
- -<br>
<b>The Worst Heat Wave Impacts Are Ahead</b><br>
The most dire projections are for tropical regions in Africa and
South Asia, where tens of millions of people are vulnerable to
extreme heat. By 2070 in those regions, a combination of extreme
heat and humidity will put about 1.5 billion people at risk. Deadly
heat waves, formed by the combination of temperatures above 95
degrees Fahrenheit and humidity in excess of 90 percent, will start
happening annually in those areas, instead of every 25 years, with
conditions lingering near that lethal threshold for weeks on end.<br>
<br>
“We are making the tropics unlivable,” she said. If warming
continues unabated through 2050, “loads of people would die and it
would lead to mass migration, and that is something we’re not really
saying enough about.” <br>
<br>
“The poorest people in society live in the most vulnerable areas,
and they are often in rural areas working outside for long hours,
exposed to the heat,” she added.<br>
<br>
Even after a string of years with record global temperatures, “the
really dangerous implications of having these extreme events more
frequently, the way they can affect people and infrastructure,
hasn’t really cut through,” said University of Oxford climate
scientist Mike Byrne, whose ongoing research shows extreme heat
intensifying over more tropical land areas, compared to heat over
the globally averaged land surface.<br>
The trend toward extreme heat is “amplified over land where the
impacts on human health, wildfire risk and food production are most
severe,” he said. His model shows that temperatures over tropical
land areas are warming more than average temperatures over all land.
The trend seems to be driven by drier soils, with less moisture that
can evaporate from the earth to cool the air, he added.<br>
<br>
His research was partly inspired by a 2019 study showing research
gaps on the extreme impacts of climate change in Africa, the world’s
hottest continent. Parts of the Middle East and North Africa may be
the regions closest to having temperatures that rise above the limit
of human survival.<br>
<br>
“With this fast pace of warming of temperature extremes, we might
actually pass a fundamental limit, beyond the human ability to cool
itself,” he said. That could make human life in those areas
impossible without air conditioning.<br>
<br>
“Fredi Otto’s study was a motivation for me, showing a blank spot in
our understanding of extreme events in Africa,” he said.<br>
<br>
More research on heat extremes in the tropics is needed, Byrne said,
because most of science’s current understanding of such events is
based on study of cooler regions. ”We don’t have a basic picture of
what drives extremes in the tropics,” he said. The research
presented at the April conference will help reduce uncertainty to
provide better warnings of extreme heat waves in Africa and
elsewhere, he added.<br>
<br>
In the United States, a 2019 study projected thousands of additional
heat deaths in cities during the second half of the century, even if
global warming is limited to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. Fatalities
increase even more steeply at higher levels of warming. The European
Academy of Sciences projects up to 132,000 additional deaths by 2100
if warming exceeds 3.6 degrees Celsius.<br>
<br>
In North America and Europe, extreme heat by far is the biggest
killer driven by global warming, Otto said. That may be the case
worldwide, but it’s hard to know because heat deaths still aren’t
accurately counted in parts of the developing world, including in
Africa, she added.<br>
<br>
Part of the reason that the threat of extreme heat is still
underestimated is because the deaths are slow and silent. “It’s a
lot easier to assess impacts from, say, a tropical cyclone,” she
said. “It happens quickly, and you can count the deaths almost
immediately.” Heat deaths come at a much slower pace, over the
course of weeks or months, and often aren’t tallied until the end of
the year. <br>
<br>
Media reports about extreme heat risks also can be misleading, she
added, with heat “almost always presented as something nice.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16052021/extreme-heat-risks-climate-change/">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16052021/extreme-heat-risks-climate-change/</a><br>
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<p><br>
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[Nick Breeze interview]<br>
<b>Glaciologist Dr Heidi Sevestre | Have We Crossed Arctic
Permafrost Threshold?</b><br>
Nick Breeze - May 16, 2021<br>
ChangeNow Summit:<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.changenow.world">https://www.changenow.world</a><br>
Transcript and more: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://genn.cc">https://genn.cc</a><br>
<br>
In this episode of Shaping The Future, I am speaking with
Glaciologist, Dr Heidi Sevestre, about the changing state of the
Arctic, the outlook for the Russian Chairmanship of the Arctic
Council, of which Heidi herself is an advisor, and how thawing
permafrost could be past the threshold of irreversibility.<br>
<br>
Heidi combines the spirit of the modern polar explorer with the
weight of important scientific work. She is also an excellent
communicator and will be speaking at the ChangeNow climate summit
later this month in the company of Sir David Attenborough and
world-renowned scientist, Johan Rockström, who will be premiering
their new documentary, Breaking Boundaries, as part of the virtual
summit.<br>
<br>
Heidi also gives her perspective on why we literally must fight hard
to limit global average warming to 1.5ºC, giving a rare insight into
how someone who wanted to be a glaciologist from a very young age
actually feels about the rate of loss of the world's glaciers.<br>
<br>
Thank you for listening to Shaping The Future - please subscribe and
share the podcast as we have many more episodes on the way exploring
the change needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/F__Lho0Ggio">https://youtu.be/F__Lho0Ggio</a><br>
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[none to drink]<br>
<b>The Entire State of California Is in Drought—But the Impacts Are
Just Beginning</b><br>
Jody Serrano - May 15, 2012<br>
California is in trouble.<br>
Drought has returned to the state in a major way, and bone-dry docks
are just the tip of the devastating problems facing the state.
Currently, 41 of California’s 58 counties are in a drought state of
emergency, affecting approximately 30% of the state’s population. As
we move into the summer, experts anticipate the drought’s impacts
will only get worse...<br>
- -<br>
Earlier this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a drought state of
emergency in 39 additional California counties, bringing the total
number of counties affected by the emergency to 41. Newsom
originally declared a regional drought emergency in Sonoma and
Mendocino counties in April. However, he was prompted to expand the
emergency to additional counties after hot temperatures and
extremely dry soils—both hallmarks of climate change in the Golden
State—ate into the snowpack and expected runoff from the Sierra
Nevadas. (Snowpack itself was already low this year after a subpar
winter wet season.)<br>
<br>
As a result, Newsom’s office stated, major reservoirs, including
those along the Klamath River, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and
Tulare Lake watershed, experienced “historic and unanticipated
reductions in the amount of water flowing.”...<br>
- -<br>
Newsom’s drought emergency proclamation directs the California State
Water Board to consider modifying requirements for reservoir
releases and diversion limitations in order to conserve water
upstream later in the year and maintain water supply, improve water
quality, and protect cold water pools for salmon and steelhead. The
order also moves to speed up the review and processing of water
transfers so that water can go to areas where it is needed most.<br>
<br>
In addition, state agencies are partnering with local water
suppliers to promote water conservation. Some municipalities have
also implemented mandatory and voluntary water-saving measures.
Officials from the California Natural Resources Agency directed
residents to limit outdoor watering, take shorter showers, and turn
off the water when brushing their teeth or doing the dishes, all
orders reminiscent of the drought that racked the state in the
mid-2010s...<br>
- -<br>
As of this week, the Drought Monitor declared the entire state of
California is now experiencing some form of drought. Nearly
three-quarters of the state is in exceptional or extreme drought,
the worst categories...<br>
- -<br>
The worsening drought comes just a few years after the state had
some of its wettest years on record. The flip-flop reflects a trend
climate scientists have tracked: California’s average precipitation
hasn’t changed much, but dry and wet years have become more extreme.
This trend is expected to continue due to climate change, increasing
the urgency for the state to figure out how to cope with drought and
more snow depending on the year...<br>
- -<br>
Droughts can elevate the risk of wildfires, something California is
unfortunately very accustomed to. Last year was the state’s worst
wildfire season recorded in modern history. More than 4.2 million
acres, or more than 4% of the state’s roughly 100 million acres, had
burned by year’s end, according to Cal Fire. The state saw its first
fire to burn more than 1 million acres in modern history as well as
a host of other large, damaging blazes. There’s even signs that
fires from last year overwintered and are still smoldering.<br>
<br>
As of May 5, the state had already seen a significant increase in
the number of wildfires and acres burned compared to the same time
last year, Cal Fire said. In May of 2020, the state had registered
1,065 fires and 1,726 acres burned. This year, there have already
been 1,788 fires and 13,604 acres burned...<br>
- -<br>
It’s not clear yet whether the 2021 fire season will be as
devastating or worse than 2020. Experts are concerned the severe
drought, dry vegetation, and an expected hot summer could be a
recipe for disaster. Dry winter conditions, however mean there’s
less overall vegetation. That could deprive fires of the fuel they
need. Yet, when fires do spark in a drought, they tend to get bigger
and be more destructive.<br>
<br>
There is one thing we do know though: 2021 is off to a worse start
than last year...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-entire-state-of-california-is-in-drought-but-the-im-1846891039">https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-entire-state-of-california-is-in-drought-but-the-im-1846891039</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Rolling$tone]<br>
<b>Big Oil Is Trying to Make Climate Change Your Problem to Solve.
Don’t Let Them</b><br>
A new Harvard study highlights a decades-long trend — how industry
creates systemic problems and then blames consumers for it <br>
By AMY WESTERVELT <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/climate-change-exxonmobil-harvard-study-1169682/">https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/climate-change-exxonmobil-harvard-study-1169682/</a><br>
- -<br>
[Earther.Gizmodo -- interesting tactic]<br>
<b>Exxon Blames You for Climate Change</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/exxon-blames-you-for-climate-change-1846882224">https://earther.gizmodo.com/exxon-blames-you-for-climate-change-1846882224</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Center fro Climate Communicaitons]<br>
<b>America Misled: How the fossil fuel industry deliberately misled
Americans about climate change</b><br>
Over the past few decades, the fossil fuel industry has subjected
the American public to a well-funded, well-orchestrated
disinformation campaign about the reality and severity of
human-caused climate change. The purpose of this web of denial has
been to confuse the public and decision-makers in order to delay
climate action and thereby protect fossil fuel business interests
and defend libertarian, free-market conservative ideologies. The
fossil fuel industry’s denial and delay tactics come straight out of
Big Tobacco’s playbook. As a result, the American public have been
denied the right to be accurately informed about climate change,
just as they were denied the right to be informed about the risks of
smoking by the tobacco industry. While fossil fuel companies
attacked the science and called on politicians to “reset the alarm,”
climate-catalyzed damages worsened, including increased storm
intensities, droughts, forest damage and wildfires, all at
substantial loss of life and cost to the American people. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/america-misled/">https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/america-misled/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Doom discussed for new book - video]<br>
<b>Niall Ferguson on Doom, Disaster and Democracy | Amanpour and
Company</b><br>
May 11, 2021<br>
Amanpour and Company<br>
Renowned historian Niall Ferguson has bad news: We’re getting worse,
not better, at handling disasters like the pandemic. This is the
argument he lays out in his new book “Doom: The Politics of
Catastrophe”, which sets 2020 into wider context and asks why many
countries’ initial responses to coronavirus were too slow. He speaks
with Walter Isaacson about how we got here and what the next big
disaster might be. <br>
Originally aired on May 11, 2021.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDlBlHGT4rQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDlBlHGT4rQ</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Book released May 18, 2021]<br>
<b>White Skin, Black Fuel: On the Danger of Fossil Fascism</b><br>
Andreas Malm (Author) The Zetkin Collective (Author)<br>
Description<br>
<blockquote>Rising temperatures and the rise of the far right. What
disasters happen when they meet?<br>
In the first study of the far right's role in the climate crisis,
White Skin, Black Fuel presents an eye-opening sweep of a novel
political constellation, revealing its deep historical roots.
Fossil-fuelled technologies were born steeped in racism. No one
loved them more passionately than the classical fascists. Now
right-wing forces have risen to the surface, some professing to
have the solution--closing borders to save the nation as the
climate breaks down.<br>
Epic and riveting, White Skin, Black Fuel traces a future of
political fronts that can only heat up.<br>
</blockquote>
Publish Date May 18, 2021<br>
Pages 576<br>
About the Author<br>
Andreas Malm is a scholar of human ecology and author of, among
other books, Fossil Capital and The Progress of This Storm.<br>
The Zetkin Collective is a group of scholars, activists and students
working on the political ecology of the far right.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bookshop.org/books/white-skin-black-fuel-on-the-danger-of-fossil-fascism/9781839761744">https://bookshop.org/books/white-skin-black-fuel-on-the-danger-of-fossil-fascism/9781839761744</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[fast, fast sea level rise]<br>
<b>‘Impossible to adapt’: Surprisingly fast ice-melts in past raise
fears about sea level rise</b><br>
27 April 2021<br>
Studies of ancient beaches and fossilised coral reefs suggest sea
levels have the potential to rise far more quickly than models
currently predict, according to geologists who have been studying
past periods of warming.<br>
<br>
At one point in a comparable period they were rising at three metres
per century, or 30mm a year, according to Dr Fiona Hibbert, a
geologist at York University in the UK. The current rate of rise is
3.2mm per year.<br>
<br>
Dr Hibbert is working on a project called ExTaSea, which predicts
worst-case scenarios for sea level rise around the globe. The goal
is to help policymakers take long-term decisions, for example about
the siting of enduring infrastructure such as nuclear power
stations.<br>
<br>
Devising models that can make such predictions is notoriously
difficult, she says.<br>
<br>
‘We’re not entirely sure of all the processes involved. When you
melt an ice sheet sometimes it’s really long-time scales that they
operate over, which is quite difficult to put into a model.’<br>
<br>
And melting itself alters the system – for example, by lightening
the load on the Earth’s crust which then undergoes a slow-motion
rebound over thousands of years.<br>
<br>
A further issue is that data on recent sea levels dates back only
150 years – for tide gauges – and just 20-25 years for satellite
measurements. <br>
<br>
Because of this, geologists such as Dr Hibbert, and Professor
Alessio Rovere, a geoscientist at the University of Bremen in
Germany, are looking back to see what happened during the last
interglacial period.<br>
<br>
‘The geological record is great because it includes all the
processes,’ said Dr Hibbert...<br>
- -<br>
‘This is really interesting because today we are in a warm period –
naturally as well as because of climate change – and in the last
interglacial, even without us giving warmth to the system, some data
suggest that there was this jump.<br>
<br>
‘Now this is a very debated idea but what if it is true? It means
there is this possibility of rapid melting of ice, on top of what we
do as humans.’<br>
<br>
Prof. Rovere says that a 10mm a year sea level rise would be ‘almost
impossible’ to adapt to with sufficient speed. ‘It means we just
have to abandon our cities,’ he added.<br>
<br>
Acceleration<br>
The prospect of a sudden acceleration in ice melting is further
supported by work done by Dr Yucheng Lin, a student of Dr Hibbert’s
as part of the ExTaSea project.<br>
<br>
This time the reference period is 24,000 to 11,000 years ago,
Earth’s most recent deglaciation, which preceded the Holocene.<br>
<br>
This period was substantially different from today which makes it
‘not so great for looking at the future,’ said Dr Hibbert. For
example, there were huge ice sheets over North America and Europe.<br>
<br>
But they found that, at the peak of the ice-melt, seas rose at 3.6
metres per century.<br>
<br>
‘Again, these are really high numbers, so ice sheets can lose mass
really quite quickly,’ said Dr Hibbert.<br>
<br>
She is now considering how such a rapid melting would play out this
century on different coasts.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/impossible-adapt-surprisingly-fast-ice-melts-past-raise-fears-about-sea-level-rise.html">https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/impossible-adapt-surprisingly-fast-ice-melts-past-raise-fears-about-sea-level-rise.html</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[across time]<b><br>
</b><b>Historical and future global burned area with changing
climate and human demography</b><br>
Published:April 01,
2021DOI:<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002</a><br>
Highlights<br>
• We evaluate historical and future burned area (BA) trends and
their drivers<br>
• Recent BA has decreased in central South America and mesic African
savannas<br>
• High-latitude warming, (sub)tropical drying, and human ignitions
will increase future BA<br>
• Fire suppression near human settlements can offset large potential
BA increases<br>
<b>Science for society</b><br>
Wildfire is an important natural disturbance for many ecosystems,
helping to shape biome distributions and controlling the carbon
balance. Major changes in fire activity could also have a strong
impact on human societies. Changes in fire activity are influenced
both by climatic changes and by changes in human demography via,
e.g., population growth and urbanization. We show that in recent
decades, global burned area has actually decreased, especially in
central South America and mesic African savannas. However, our
future simulations indicate that future climate and demographic
change will reverse this trend and that burned area is likely to
increase due to accelerated high-latitude warming and tropical and
subtropical drying and human ignitions. These projections will
inform more detailed, local work to develop wildfire management
strategies and to assess ecological responses to global change, and
will contribute to the discussion of what constitutes a safe upper
limit to global warming.<br>
<b>Summary</b><br>
Wildfires influence terrestrial carbon cycling and represent a
safety risk, and yet a process-based understanding of their
frequency and spatial distributions remains elusive. We combine
satellite-based observations with an enhanced dynamic global
vegetation model to make regionally resolved global assessments of
burned area (BA) responses to changing climate, derived from 34
Earth system models and human demographics for 1860–2100. Limited by
climate and socioeconomics, recent BA has decreased, especially in
central South America and mesic African savannas. However, future
simulations predict increasing BA due to changing climate, rapid
population density growth, and urbanization. BA increases are
especially notable at high latitudes, due to accelerated warming,
and over the tropics and subtropics, due to drying and human
ignitions. Conversely, rapid urbanization also limits BA via
enhanced fire suppression in the immediate vicinity of settlements,
offsetting the potential for dramatic future increases, depending on
warming extent. Our analysis provides further insight into regional
and global BA trends, highlighting the importance of including human
demographic change in models for wildfire under changing climate.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00129-9">https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00129-9</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Digging back into the internet news archive]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming May
17, 2013 </b></font><br>
Andrew Sullivan points to the root cause of US climate-change
denial:<br>
<blockquote>"But the main reason many Americans still refuse to
believe it is religious fundamentalism. That is immune to science
and reason. But it is the bedrock belief of one of our political
parties."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/05/17/settled-among-scientists/">http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/05/17/settled-among-scientists/</a><br>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/</p>
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