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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>June 7, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[TV waking up]<br>
<b>Sir David Attenborough to 60 Minutes on climate change: "A crime
has been committed"</b><br>
Nearly two decades after declining to take a hard stance in his
first profile on 60 Minutes, Sir David Attenborough warns about the
dangers of climate change.<br>
<blockquote>"We're both in broadcasting, if you're going be telling
something as though it's true, you better be sure it's true,"
Attenborough said to Cooper. "So I didn't say anything much about
the world being in ecological peril until I was absolutely sure
that what I was talking about was correct."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sir-david-attenborough-60-minutes-2021-06-06/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sir-david-attenborough-60-minutes-2021-06-06/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Classic analysis of disinformation]<br>
<b>Why your 'Carbon Footprint' Is A Lie | Climate Town</b><br>
Aug 12, 2020<br>
Climate Town<br>
Hello and welcome to the description section of the Carbon Footprint
is a Lie video.<br>
<br>
We've got a big ol' task ahead of us and it's important to start our
collective engines (figurative, not literal) on reducing our
government's fossil fuel use. It's going to take an effort on the
scale of the new deal (but like a ... I dunno, green one or
something) and we'll need to keep climate change front of mind for
the foreseeable future if we want to have a shot of pressuring
corporations and government into doing the right thing. <br>
<br>
Also here: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.instagram.com/climatetown/">https://www.instagram.com/climatetown/</a><br>
Here is a commentable google doc of the sources. Please check it
out:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A">https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A</a>...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J9LOqiXdpE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J9LOqiXdpE</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Video essay]<br>
<b>Why Billionaires Won't Save Us</b><br>
May 21, 2021<br>
Our Changing Climate<br>
Why billionaires won't save us from climate change.<br>
<br>
In this Our Changing Climate climate change video essay, I look at
why billionaires won't save us from climate change. Specifically, I
look at how the elite philanthropy of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and
Elon Musk function as more of a billionaire preservation of wealth
and self than as an act of altruism. Elite philanthropy from Bill
Gates and Jeff Bezos in particular seem to solidify their political
and social power even more. Bill Gates and his foundation have
steered the realm of global health for quite some time (especially
during the pandemic) and it seems as if he is using his billionaire
wealth to do the same for climate action. Jeff Bezos' $10 billion
Earth Fund seems to be functioning in a similar way while also
whitewashing the destructive nature of Amazon, aka how Jeff Bezos
made his money. Elon Musk is also jumping on the billionaire
philanthropy train with a carbon capture prize that is measly
compared to his massive wealth. At the end of the day billionaires
and billionaire money are not solutions to climate change and the
climate crisis, we are.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_634hXz32pY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_634hXz32pY</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[noticing change in ocean flow]<br>
<b>A slowing current system in the Atlantic Ocean spells trouble for
Earth</b><br>
The potential disruption of an Atlantic current system marks a "big
gamble at planetary scale"<br>
By MATTHEW ROZSA -- JUNE 5, 2021<br>
It was a seamless synthesis of science and art, expanding the
frontiers of human knowledge while being eerily beautiful at the
same time. That was the response when, in the 1960s, professor Henry
Stommel, a pioneering oceanographer, introduced a model to his
colleagues that explained the motions of ocean waters. Decades
later, Dr. Michael E. Mann, a distinguished professor of atmospheric
science at Penn State University, still marvels at what he describes
as the "elegant" nature of Stommel's model.<br>
<br>
"It consisted of two boxes, a cold fresh box at high latitudes and a
warm salty box at low latitudes, to represent the North Atlantic
ocean," Mann told Salon by email. "He showed that this simple model
predicted an overturning 'thermohaline' circulation — a circulation
driven by contrasts in ocean water density due to both temperature
and salinity, each of which influence water density."<br>
<br>
Thus, armed with a model so simple that it can be solved with
algebra, scientists now understood the ocean currents in the
Atlantic.<br>
<br>
This is how scientists figured out what is called the Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation, or "AMOC" for short. When it
comes to the motion of the ocean, AMOC is essentially a complex
system of conveyor belts. The first belt contains warm water that
flows north, where it cools, evaporates and increases the salinity
of the ocean water. That water then cools, sinks and flows south,
creating a second major belt. These currents are connected to each
other by regions in the Nordic Sea, Labrador Sea and Southern Ocean,
keeping sea levels down on the United States' eastern seaboard and
warming up the weather in Europe.<br>
<br>
This current system connects many different pieces of life on Earth:
tides, hurricanes, sea levels, ocean life, salinity, fisheries,
water pollution, temperatures, weather — all are affected by this
current system. A sudden shift in how the Atlantic current system
works would drastically change life on Earth.<br>
<br>
Yet the more we learn about ocean currents, the more we have cause
for alarm. A February study published in the journal Nature
Geoscience reconstructed the history of the current going back 1,600
years and found that circulation is weaker now than at any other
point in that span. They identified the most likely culprit as
global warming. With the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic ice melting
as the planet heats up, and rain and snow levels increasing, the
water flowing north loses much of its salinity and density. This
causes the water to flow south more slowly and weakens AMOC overall.<br>
<br>
More recently, another study in the journal Nature Geoscience that
identified the important role played by winds in causing changes in
ocean circulation. As lead author Dr. Yavor Kostov of the University
of Exeter said in a press release, scientists have struggled to
understand the variability in AMOC because there are so many
variables that have an effect on it. He noted that after learning
that winds influenced circulation in both sub-tropical and sub-polar
locations, scientists concluded that "as the climate continues to
change, more efforts should be concentrated on monitoring those
winds — especially in key regions on continental boundaries and the
eastern coast of Greenland — and understanding what drives changes
in them."<br>
<br>
The obvious question, then, is: what will happen if climate change
continues to weaken AMOC?<br>
<br>
"This won't lead to another ice age (like 'The Day After Tomorrow,'
which is a caricature of the science), but it may well threaten fish
populations and lead to accelerated sea level rise along the U.S.
east coast," Mann told Salon. "This is furthermore a reminder that
there are surprises in the greenhouse, and often they are unwelcome
ones. If we want to avoid more and more of these unwelcome
surprises, we need to bring carbon emissions down dramatically in
the years ahead."<br>
<br>
Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished senior scientist at the University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research, told Salon by email that if
AMOC stopped moving heat northwards, the topical Atlantic would get
much warmer. That in turn would lead to more frequent and
devastating hurricanes, even as Iceland and parts of Europe cool
immensely.<br>
<br>
"AMOC acts as a relief valve for the Atlantic heat buildup in the
tropics," Trenberth explained. "In the Pacific there is no
equivalent and the relief valve is ENSO," which stands for "El Niño
and the Southern Oscillation."<br>
<br>
Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution
for Science's Department of Global Ecology, said that it is
ultimately impossible to predict with certainty what will happen if
AMOC slows down — but that it is very unlikely to be good.<br>
<br>
"For me, it is not so much about the direct impacts of this
particular change, which I think are highly uncertain, but rather if
we are impacting major parts of planetary-scale processes and
knocking them out of the range that they operated in (and we adapted
to) over the entirety of human history, it is a pretty safe bet that
we can anticipate some fairly nasty unknown unknowns," Caldeira
wrote to Salon. "That may be just indefensible bias that cannot be
rigorously supported, but I for one am not up for big gambles at
planetary scale."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.salon.com/2021/06/05/atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-slowing-global-warming/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.salon.com/2021/06/05/atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-slowing-global-warming/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[Paul Beckwith - video lectures - ]<br>
<b>Cascading Climate System Domino Feedback Effects; NOT Good: Part
1 of 3</b><br>
Jun 4, 2021<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGj7HsdBDa0"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGj7HsdBDa0</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[part 2]<br>
<b>Welcome to the Climate Casino; Climate System Domino Effects from
Cascading Feedbacks: Part 2 of 3</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvc2wUp_Ww">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvc2wUp_Ww</a><br>
Paul Beckwith- Jun 5, 2021<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvc2wUp_Ww">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTvc2wUp_Ww</a>
<p>- -</p>
[third - most important]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpMMWPPvg2c">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpMMWPPvg2c</a><br>
<b>Abrupt Climate System Destabilization: Cascading Chain Reaction
of Amplifying Feedbacks: Part Jun 6, 2021</b><br>
A new peer-reviewed scientific paper published June 3rd discusses
the risks of climate domino effects from cascading feedbacks.
Essentially, the risk is rapidly increasing to cross critical
thresholds for one or more tipping elements in the climate system.<br>
<br>
Although there are numerous tipping points in the climate system,
this paper used Monte Carlo computer simulations to examine the
physical interactions between only 4 tipping elements: namely 1)
Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) collapse, 2) West Antarctic Ice Sheet
(WAIS) collapse, 3) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) shutdown, and 4) Amazon Rainforest collapse.<br>
<br>
This paper is a great start to examining cascading tipping points,
but in my opinion it needs to incorporate many other tipping points
to be really useful, most notably the paper egregiously ignores
Arctic Sea Ice collapse to the dreaded Blue Ocean Event (BOE), and
Methane Outbursts from both the Arctic terrestrial permafrost
(riskiest being the Siberian Yedoma regions) and the subsea
permafrost (riskiest being the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS)
regions and the methane bound in hydrates (methane clathrates)).<br>
<br>
For each of the tipping elements examined, the paper considers the
essential factors of critical temperature thresholds, tipping
element interaction mechanisms and strengths, and tipping
timescales.<br>
<br>
The most significant and worrying result of this new paper is the
following:<br>
<br>
For global warming up to 2.0C above pre-industrial, tipping occurs
in 61% of all the simulations. This 61% is further broken down to:
one individual element tips in 22% of all of the simulations;
cascading effects cause tipping in two elements in 21% of the cases;
cascading tips three elements in 15% of the simulations; and all
four elements tip via cascading in 3% of all the simulations.<br>
<br>
For global warming of 1.0C (already passed) the GIS has already
likely tipped.<br>
<br>
Meanwhile, for global warming of 3.0C cascades are less frequent
since the four elements all tip independently with temperature
thresholds already exceeded.<br>
<br>
Overall, a fascinating paper, but it is imperative that future work
examine the entire gamut of tipping elements, including the four
examined thus far.<b><br>
</b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF523HIy7SI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF523HIy7SI</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
[Source material]<br>
<b>Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino
effects under global warming</b><br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that
one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross
a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the
global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the
underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how
their interactions might impact the overall stability of the
Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed
with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational
constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process
representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly
study the effects of known physical interactions among the
Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a
conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects
being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under
global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments,
we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds,
interaction strengths and interaction structure via large
ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we
find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of
tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the
qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the
network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West
Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades,
while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This
indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of
transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range
of 1.5 to 2 ∘C, are of particular importance for the stability of
the climate system as a whole.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/601/2021/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/601/2021/</a><br>
<p>graphic - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/601/2021/#&gid=1&pid=1"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/601/2021/#&gid=1&pid=1</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[clips from Harpers magazine]<br>
<b>Prayer for a Just War</b><br>
By Greg Jackson<br>
Finding meaning in the climate fight<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://harpers.org/archive/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-finding-meaning-in-the-climate-fight/">https://harpers.org/archive/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-finding-meaning-in-the-climate-fight/</a><br>
- -<br>
If we fail to mobilize now, we may never have another chance. The
notion of a single ungodly disaster that finally spurs us to action
and compels the government to respond is a fantasy. If it comes, it
will be too late. We will not be individually prepared, and we will
expect the government to take charge. We will find ourselves
helpless and subject to larger forces, natural and human, on all
sides. We will, in short, let the crisis go to waste.<br>
<br>
Instead, we must act now, renewing civic vigor and restoring the
social institutions that enfranchise us and build community. More
concretely, we should establish a national jobs program focused on
the climate fight, pulling back from a volunteer (and increasingly
privatized) military, and deepen our global outreach. The nation
building we have asked the military to perform belongs more properly
to noncombat missions such as the Peace Corps. As the
conservationist Joe Walston has noted, significant battles in the
climate fight will play out in places like sub-Saharan Africa, and
the results will depend in part on whether countries in the region
urbanize effectively and succeed in educating girls.<br>
<br>
Other endeavors should include everything from computer modeling to
ocean farming. Overhauling the world’s industrial and energy systems
will demand a massive amount of labor. The climate fight will draw
on the tangible skills of builders, ecologists, technologists,
electrical engineers, agriculturalists, nurses, emergency medical
personnel, firefighters, pilots, conservationists, urban planners,
and countless others. Whether it is learning to grow our food,
fortify our houses, treat injuries, or build communities of mutual
support, we may find that the challenges of a world remade by
climate change are sources of profound meaning and fulfillment.<br>
<br>
But how we move from admiring the problem to organizing around it is
not a trivial issue; it is the central challenge in this battle. We
need the leadership of those who have experience building and
directing coalitions, from union organizers and military veterans to
activists and campaign managers. The research of the political
scientist Erica Chenoweth shows that nonviolent protests involving
just 3.5 percent of a population have reliably brought down
recalcitrant regimes. It doesn’t take much for popular will to
overwhelm the apparent, but secretly precarious, authority of
political, military, and business elites. To this end, we must
consider civil disobedience and strikes. Students should walk out of
class, and we must pressure companies from within (as employees) and
without (as consumers) to act as responsible stewards of the future.
There are endless points of leverage because everything and everyone
is relevant.<br>
<br>
The tide could turn more quickly than people think. In World War II,
it took only eighteen months to retool American industry into an
unprecedented arsenal. The U.S. military today, unlike so much of
the government that funds it, recognizes climate change for the
existential threat it is, and the tight margins that make
corporations so resistant to change also make them profoundly
susceptible to pressure. But we have scarcely begun to mobilize. We
are simply not acting as though we are at war...<br>
- -<br>
A thesis that informs my argument is the belief that the certainty
of death, and our efforts to resist and postpone it, are what permit
meaning in life. It follows from this thesis that obscuring our
relation to this certainty obscures the true stakes and significance
of living. The parents who believe that it should not be their child
who fights in a war, or their child who forgoes some special
advantage, or their child who opts out of today’s careerism at the
call of conscience, is no different from the politician or pundit
who tells us we cannot “afford” to act on climate change.
Generalized and applied to society at large, these self-exempting
principles make us weaker, poorer, and more likely to die. For fear
of death, they teach us, we cannot afford to protect life.<br>
<br>
In the same way, by paying rhetorical homage only to the suffering
that climate violence is sure to bring, and neglecting, as perhaps
in bad taste, the potential promise in a fight we can’t avoid, we
perpetuate a form of the dishonesty that got us here. This is the
belief that how we talk about something—whether guided by
ideological or moralistic convictions—affects its underlying
reality: that by insistence we can freight the unconscious world
with our moral schemas. But nature is dispassionate, and we are not
being punished. No amount of atonement or misgiving makes any
difference. We have a practical crisis on our hands, and it is the
first truly universal project in which all of us—all living
things—are on the same side...<br>
- -<br>
The most profound costs of addressing climate change will not be
financial or physical, but personal and social. If we can summon the
courage to act, we will discover that these costs are also our most
profound rewards. They mark an end to our isolation, alienation, and
division. But they ask something of us, something that is difficult
because it takes place in private, unrewarded instants: an inner
giving, denominated in openness and restraint. We must learn not to
covet our power, but mistrust it. Not to lord victory over others,
but to show solicitude and modesty in triumph. We must see fortune
and success as a responsibility, not a boundless permission to do
whatever we please. We must hold fast to conscience while repulsing
moralism. We must extend tolerance beyond the narrow confines of
advocacy and favor, and see humor—good humor—as the handmaiden of
humility.<br>
<br>
When the stakes of failing to collaborate are not tangibly before
us, it is difficult to value working together. But now the
floodwaters are rising, the fires are drawing near. Waiting is its
own risk. Take the small leap of opening your mind, your ears, your
heart. Do what is hard because what is hard creates the parts of you
that are strong. Speak truth and listen. Listen for the storm
approaching. Listen for what people do not say or do not know how to
say, but which recalls your own longing, fear, graciousness, and
hope. You do not have to believe anything to join this fight—just
know that underneath the protective layers of personality every
person is authentic. Every human being is real. Every body can be
burned by fire, choked by ash, drowned by rising waters, as well as
cherished, loved, and kept safe by the will to fight, protect, and
survive.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://harpers.org/archive/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-finding-meaning-in-the-climate-fight/">https://harpers.org/archive/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-finding-meaning-in-the-climate-fight/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[The news archive - looking back]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming June
7, 2010</b></font><br>
Washington Post writer Ezra Klein condemns Sen. Lisa Murkowski
(R-AK) for her proposal to strip the EPA of its authority to
regulate carbon emissions.<br>
<br>
<b> With friends like Lisa Murkowski, the climate doesn't
need enemies</b><br>
<blockquote>If you were to zoom out on the BP oil spill and try to
draw some lessons about prevention, you'd probably come up with
these: Continued reliance on fossil fuels carries costs that
travel far beyond what we pay at the pump. Things that will
eventually go wrong do go wrong, and lack of planning makes the
eventual catastrophe much harder to solve. When regulators can't,
or don't, do their jobs, bad things happen. And finally,
prevention is better, safer and cheaper than cleanup.<br>
<br>
But that's not what Sen. Lisa Murkowski has taken away.<br>
<br>
Murkowski plans to offer a resolution barring the Environmental
Protection Agency from regulating carbon emissions. In other
words, Murkowski plans to offer a resolution making it less likely
we move away from fossil fuels, making it less likely we act to
prevent a foreseeable catastrophe (in this case, global warming)
from occurring, blocking regulators from doing their jobs, and
disrupting one of our best opportunities to prevent climate change
rather than scramble to respond after its incalculable effects rip
through our atmosphere.<br>
<br>
Murkowski says that her effort is much simpler than all that. “My
decision to introduce this measure is rooted in a desire to see
Congress – not unelected bureaucrats – lead the way in addressing
climate change," she wrote. But Murkowski has not led the way in
addressing climate change. She has not joined with Lindsey Graham,
Joe Lieberman and John Kerry in their efforts to negotiate a
bipartisan climate bill. And as everyone involved in
climate-change politics knows, congressional action is much
likelier if backed by the threat of EPA action. As Graham told me,
preempting the EPA is one of the major deliverables to get both
Republicans and business groups on board.<br>
<br>
Bar the EPA from acting and you make it less likely that Congress
will act. The calculus is as simple and straightforward as that.
Murkowski, a crucial Republican vote in a closely divided Senate,
could usher climate-change legislation to completion. Instead, she
is working to delay action on our addiction to fossil fuels and
the terrible and foreseeable consequences. Just ask the residents
of the gulf how well that tends to work out.<br>
<br>
By Ezra Klein | June 7, 2010</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/with_friends_like_lisa_murkows.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/with_friends_like_lisa_murkows.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
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