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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>June 23, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[tipping points]<br>
<b>Climate tipping points could topple like dominoes, warn
scientists</b><br>
Analysis shows significant risk of cascading events even at 2C of
heating, with severe long-term effects<br>
Ice sheets and ocean currents at risk of climate tipping points can
destabilise each other as the world heats up, leading to a domino
effect with severe consequences for humanity, according to a risk
analysis.<br>
<br>
Tipping points occur when global heating pushes temperatures beyond
a critical threshold, leading to accelerated and irreversible
impacts. Some large ice sheets in Antarctica are thought to already
have passed their tipping points, meaning large sea-level rises in
coming centuries...<br>
- -<br>
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere required to push temperatures
beyond the thresholds could be reached in the very near future, she
said. “In the next years or decades, we might be committing future
generations to really severe consequences.” These could include many
metres of sea-level rise from ice melting, affecting scores of
coastal cities.<br>
<br>
“We’re shifting the odds, and not in our favour – the risk clearly
is increasing the more we heat our planet,” said Jonathan Donges,
also at PIK and part of the research team...<br>
- -<br>
“The study suggests that below 2C of global warming – ie in the
Paris agreement target range – there could still be a significant
risk of triggering cascading climate tipping points,” said Lenton.
“What the new study doesn’t do is unpack the timescale over which
tipping points changes and cascades could unfold – instead it
focuses on the eventual consequences. The results should be viewed
as ‘commitments’ that we may be making soon to potentially
irreversible changes and cascades, leaving as a grim legacy to
future generations.”<br>
<br>
However, the chance of a cascade of tipping points leading to a
runaway greenhouse effect, where the planet gets ever hotter even if
humanity stops carbon emissions, is extremely unlikely, according to
Prof Anders Levermann, also at PIK but not involved in the new work.
“The Earth will get as warm as we make it, which means we’re the
ones [that must] stop it,” he said.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/03/climate-tipping-points-could-topple-like-dominoes-warn-scientists">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/03/climate-tipping-points-could-topple-like-dominoes-warn-scientists</a>
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[Carbon fascism]<br>
<b>The Climate Coup | Mark Alizart</b><br>
Nick Breeze<br>
View more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://genn.cc">https://genn.cc</a><br>
Back this channel at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://patreon.com/genncc">https://patreon.com/genncc</a><br>
<br>
In this episode of Shaping The Future, I am speaking with French
philosopher Mark Alizart about his new book The Climate Coup.<br>
<br>
The Climate Coup makes for fascinating reading as Mark identifies
the forces of financial and self-interest who are either actively
profiting or seeking to gain power from the misery and suffering
that is a result of regional and global ecological and climate
disasters.<br>
<br>
In identifying these Carbofascists, Mark suggests there are
parallels between events such as the Nazi burning of the Reichstag
in 1933 and President Bolsonaro’s more recent wilful burning of the
Amazon rainforest that has shocked the world. <br>
<br>
Linking this seeming madness to the rise of populism, Mark suggests
key responses that those of us interested in saving the global
commons must consider if we are to win the struggle for a stable
future.<br>
<br>
The book is only 60 pages and available to buy online at the usual
places. I would welcome any thoughts or feedback about The Climate
Coup, so please do comment or get in touch with your thoughts.<br>
<br>
Following this episode, I am going to post an interview I recorded
at COP25 in Madrid with retired General Ghazi from Pakistan. General
Ghazi was also formerly the Pakistani Defence Minister and explains
how current trends of climate disruption increasing pressures on
water supply, are a key indicator of future conflict in the region.<br>
<br>
Conflict risk and human suffering are only going to increase as the
world becomes hotter and resources more restricted. How we behave in
the face of such pressures will be the true test of our humanity.<br>
<b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4cZMiXUgY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4cZMiXUgY</a></b><br>
"Civil governments have always supported commerce and conquest
within stable environments. It may be that in a rapidly
destabilizing world, these forms of government are a worthless waste
of time." - R P<br>
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[murder by proxy]<br>
<b>Legal experts worldwide draw up ‘historic’ definition of ecocide</b><br>
Draft law is intended to prosecute offences against the environment<br>
Haroon Siddique - Legal affairs correspondent - 22 Jun 2021<br>
Legal experts from across the globe have drawn up a “historic”
definition of ecocide, intended to be adopted by the international
criminal court to prosecute the most egregious offences against the
environment.<br>
<br>
The draft law, unveiled on Tuesday, defines ecocide as “unlawful or
wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial
likelihood of severe and widespread or long-term damage to the
environment being caused by those acts”.<br>
<br>
The Stop Ecocide Foundation initiative comes amid concerns that not
enough is being done to tackle the climate and ecological crisis.<br>
<br>
If adopted by the ICC’s members, it would become just the fifth
offence the court prosecutes – alongside war crimes, crimes against
humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression – and the first new
international crime since the 1940s when Nazi leaders were
prosecuted at the Nuremberg trials...<br>
- -<br>
The ICC has been criticised for not investigating major
environmental crimes. In 2016, it said it would assess existing
offences, such as crimes against humanity, in a broader context to
include environmental destruction and landgrabs.<br>
<br>
Sands said some panel members had pushed for the definition to
explicitly mention climate change but that was rejected because of a
desire to make it more difficult for countries – and corporations –
to oppose the proposed new law. Instead, it created “a definition
that catches the most egregious acts but doesn’t catch the kinds of
daily activity that so many of us, myself included, and regions and
peoples and countries are involved in which cause significant harm
to the environment over the long term”.<br>
<br>
He cited transboundary nuclear accidents, major oil spills and
Amazon deforestation as potential examples of ecocide but, on a
smaller geographical scale, also the unlawful killing of a
significant protected species such as the two remaining northern
white rhinos.<br>
<br>
Jojo Mehta, from Stop Ecocide Foundation, said it was a “historic
moment”, adding: “The resulting definition is well pitched between
what needs to be done concretely to protect ecosystems and what will
be acceptable to states. It’s concise, it’s based on strong legal
precedents and it will mesh well with existing laws. Governments
will take it seriously, and it offers a workable legal tool
corresponding to a real and pressing need in the world.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/22/legal-experts-worldwide-draw-up-historic-definition-of-ecocide">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/22/legal-experts-worldwide-draw-up-historic-definition-of-ecocide</a><br>
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["We have met the enemy, and he is us!"]<br>
<b>Prayer for a Just War</b><br>
Don’t keep calm and carry on: a new way of thinking about action on
climate change<br>
Greg Jackson -- June 10, 2021<br>
What if we conceived of the fight against climate change as a “just
war”—as both the biggest fight in human history and a global search
for meaning? As fires rage, oceans rise, and pandemics ravage, the
demands for international solidarity and world-scale deployments of
resources are readily apparent. But in the face of ideological
divisions wrought by centuries of capitalist and colonial
destruction, it’s not always easy to envision what solidarity really
is, or what it needs to be.<br>
<br>
In “Prayer for a Just War,” published in the June issue of Harper’s
Magazine, Greg Jackson urges us to see the “first comprehensive
global challenge” as an opportunity to define our global character
by our collective grit, humility, and trust. In addition to
outlining the many counterattacks we must mount on political and
technological fronts, Jackson imbues the mythic concept of the
“existential threat” with historical and spiritual meaning. In this
episode, Jackson delves into those ideas with web editor Violet
Lucca, then gestures toward ways we might help each other step out
of the deadly (and dull) alienation we all seem to share.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://harpers.org/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-climate-change/">https://harpers.org/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-climate-change/</a><br>
Essay -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://harpers.org/archive/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-finding-meaning-in-the-climate-fight/">https://harpers.org/archive/2021/06/prayer-for-a-just-war-finding-meaning-in-the-climate-fight/</a><br>
podcast - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://soundcloud.com/harpersmagazine">https://soundcloud.com/harpersmagazine</a><br>
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[NYTimes toys with the subject]<br>
<b>What if American Democracy Fails the Climate Crisis?</b><br>
Ezra Klein and four environmental thinkers discuss the limits of
politics in facing down the threat to the planet.<br>
By Ezra Klein --June 22, 2021<br>
Of late, I’ve been obsessing over a single question: What if
political systems, in the United States and internationally, fail to
curb climate change?<br>
<br>
It can seem an impolite question, even as it’s the path we’re on.
President Biden’s climate agenda is both ambitious and, on its own,
insufficient. Its political prospects are mixed at best...<br>
- -<br>
Jasanoff: I wanted to raise the question of responsibility, which
hasn’t come up. I think people around the world see very clearly
that we are not equally responsible for emissions. The word
“Anthropocene” imagines that there’s a single anthropos and that the
ages of humanity are measured according to its collective actions.
And I think people’s lived experience is not of a singular humanity
but of one that’s very much stratified and unequal. So, will people
mobilize on a sufficient scale to make the hard choices? For some
people, it’s not a hard choice. They’re already living at a
subsistence level. So what are you going to tell them to do?<br>
<br>
In a way, these geoengineering ideas are the solutions of the
supersaturated mind. Having conceptualized the planet as one, having
conceptualized humanity as a unitary anthropos, having
conceptualized climate change as a global phenomenon, now all it can
think of is a global technological solution.<br>
Klein: But for a lot of people, it is a hard choice, including
people who were looking forward to choices that they may now not
have. And so let me end on this question: Does the future really
have to be one of less? Or can climate change be solved within a
context of abundance?<br>
<br>
Griffith: I am optimistic that materially all of our lives can
improve. It doesn’t mean we have a higher volume of things in our
life. We will have more things that last longer and far, far fewer
disposable things. But that doesn’t mean you have an empty house and
a boring life. It probably means you have beautiful objects that you
have a lot better relationship with. We have concepts like the
Polynesian mana, in which the value of the object comes from its age
and its history, not because of its shininess and newness. I am
optimistic that we can bring billions of people up the
quality-of-life ladder, but we don’t get there with our existing
notions of property, ownership, debt and land use.<br>
<br>
Gunn-Wright: I have never figured out a way, particularly as a Black
woman, to tell people who have been oppressed and who have seen, you
know, different things held up as luxuries or standards that will
come to them eventually, that that is not the version of life that
they should or can seek. That they have borne all sorts of ills to
not get the thing that they thought might be their reward. I think
that is incredibly difficult. And I don’t know how one delivers that
message or even, as a person, takes that in.<br>
<br>
Jasanoff: And no matter what happens, there will be a class of
people, all over the planet, who will have the money, the political
connections, the insurance to move their houses inland or up the
hill or whatever. And who knows, maybe the kind of thinking that we
had in the United States back in the 1970s, about the population
explosion and the need to control the global population, could make
a return. You know, who cares if there is a winnowing out of global
humanity if Noah’s ark can be made available for the rich?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/magazine/ezra-klein-climate-crisis.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/magazine/ezra-klein-climate-crisis.html</a><br>
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</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Warning -- aspirational conjectures are most dangerous]<br>
<b>Using Sunlight to Alleviate Global Warming: Breakthrough in
Decomposing CO2 With High Efficiency</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scitechdaily.com/images/Synthesis-Method-Novel-Three-Component-Photocatalyst-777x332.jpg">https://scitechdaily.com/images/Synthesis-Method-Novel-Three-Component-Photocatalyst-777x332.jpg</a><br>
Scientists find a way to efficiently use visible light from the sun
to break down CO2, open doors to novel means of alleviating global
warming.<br>
<br>
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities have risen
drastically over the last century and a half and are seen as the
primary cause of global warming and abnormal weather patterns. So,
there has been considerable research focus, in a number of fields,
on lowering our CO2 emissions and its atmospheric levels. One
promising strategy is to chemically break down, or ‘reduce,’ CO2
using photocatalysts — compounds that absorb light energy and
provide it to reactions, speeding them up. With this strategy, the
solar powered reduction of CO2, where no other artificial source of
energy is used, becomes possible, opening doors to a sustainable
path to a sustainable future...<br>
- -<br>
Dr. Ishii is hopeful about their photocatalyst’s potential. “It can
make the solar reduction of industrial CO2 emissions and atmospheric
CO2 an easy-to-scale and sustainable renewable energy-based solution
tackling global warming and climate change, making people’s lives
safer and healthier,” he says.<br>
The next step, the team says, is to explore the possibility of using
their photocatalyst for solar hydrogen generation. Perhaps,
humanity’s future is bright after all!<br>
<br>
Reference: “One-step synthesis of visible light CO2 reduction
photocatalyst from carbon nanotubes encapsulating iodine molecules”
by Ayar Al-zubaidi, Kenta Kobayashi, Yosuke Ishii and Shinji
Kawasaki, 12 May 2021, Scientific Reports.<br>
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-89706-2<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scitechdaily.com/using-sunlight-to-alleviate-global-warming-breakthrough-in-decomposing-co2-with-high-efficiency/">https://scitechdaily.com/using-sunlight-to-alleviate-global-warming-breakthrough-in-decomposing-co2-with-high-efficiency/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[video explanation]<br>
<b>Sea Water Spraying Produces Tiny Airborne Salt Particles making
Clouds Whiter to Cool Planet: 3 of 4</b><br>
Jun 21, 2021<br>
Paul Beckwith<br>
I was recently in a great video discussion with Peter Wadhams and
Stephen Salter, hosted by Metta Spencer, to hash out the cloud
brightening technique as conceptualized by Emeritus Professor
Stephen Salter in the Engineering and Design Department at the
University of Edinburgh over the last couple of decades.<br>
<br>
Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) has the potential to cool the planet
in a highly controllable fashion. Essentially, sea water is pumped
to high pressure through nozzles where it generates water jets that
then break apart (via Rayleigh instability) to form tiny water
droplets. The nozzle size, number of nozzles, water pressure, etc…
are engineered to produce water droplets of 800 nm size (0.8 micron)
so that when the water evaporates we are left with 200 nm salt
crystals. These salt crystals are then transported within the
turbulent boundary layer above the surface of the ocean up to
heights about 1 km to 1.5 km where they act as cloud condensation
nuclei, ensuring that the clouds that do form are of extremely high
albedo (reflectivity) and thus can reflect enough incoming sunlight
to cool the surface of the Earth. <br>
<br>
The spray nozzles are transported around the oceans of the planet by
hydrofoil ships powered by the wind using so-called Flettner Rotors.
The ships are sailed to specific areas of the ocean at specific
times of the year to brighten the clouds in specific regions to get
the desired regional cooling, for example to reduce Atlantic Basin
hurricane strength, protect coral reefs, cool the Arctic enough to
restore Arctic Sea Ice, and!or modify monsoons or redistribute
rainfall to reduce droughts or torrential rainfalls.<br>
<br>
This technology has enormous potential to cool the planet enough to
buy us time to slash fossil fuel emissions and deploy carbon removal
technologies.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA79vWAM2Tc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA79vWAM2Tc</a><br>
<br>
<br>
[The news archive - looking back]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming June
23, 1988</b></font><br>
<p>NASA scientist James Hansen warns the US Senate about the risks
of human-caused climate change.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><b>Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate</b><br>
By Philip Shabecoff, Special To the New York Times<br>
June 24, 1988<br>
</p>
<p>The earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year
than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years
ago, and the higher temperatures can now be attributed to a
long-expected global warming trend linked to pollution, a space
agency scientist reported today.<br>
<br>
Until now, scientists have been cautious about attributing
rising global temperatures of recent years to the predicted
global warming caused by pollutants in the atmosphere, known as
the ''greenhouse effect.'' But today Dr. James E. Hansen of the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration told a
Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the
warming trend was not a natural variation but was caused by a
buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the
atmosphere.<br>
<br>
Dr. Hansen, a leading expert on climate change, said in an
interview that there was no ''magic number'' that showed when
the greenhouse effect was actually starting to cause changes in
climate and weather. But he added, ''It is time to stop waffling
so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the
greenhouse effect is here.'' An Impact Lasting Centuries<br>
<br>
If Dr. Hansen and other scientists are correct, then humans, by
burning of fossil fuels and other activities, have altered the
global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for
centuries to come.<br>
<br>
Dr. Hansen, director of NASA's Institute for Space Studies in
Manhattan, testifed before the Senate Energy and Natural
Resources Committee.<br>
<br>
He and other scientists testifying before the Senate panel today
said that projections of the climate change that is now
apparently occurring mean that the Southeastern and Midwestern
sections of the United States will be subject to frequent
episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next
decade and beyond. But they cautioned that it was not possible
to attribute a specific heat wave to the greenhouse effect,
given the still limited state of knowledge on the subject. Some
Dispute Link<br>
<br>
Some scientists still argue that warmer temperatures in recent
years may be a result of natural fluctuations rather than
human-induced changes.<br>
<br>
Several Senators on the Committee joined witnesses in calling
for action now on a broad national and international program to
slow the pace of global warming.<br>
<br>
Senator Timothy E. Wirth, the Colorado Democrat who presided at
hearing today, said: ''As I read it, the scientific evidence is
compelling: the global climate is changing as the earth's
atmosphere gets warmer. Now, the Congress must begin to consider
how we are going to slow or halt that warming trend and how we
are going to cope with the changes that may already be
inevitable.'' Trapping of Solar Radiation<br>
<br>
Mathematical models have predicted for some years now that a
buildup of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels such
as coal and oil and other gases emitted by human activities into
the atmosphere would cause the earth's surface to warm by
trapping infrared radiation from the sun, turning the entire
earth into a kind of greenhouse.<br>
<br>
If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the
effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit
from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This
rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the
globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as
much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.<br>
<br>
The rise in global temperature is predicted to cause a thermal
expansion of the oceans and to melt glaciers and polar ice, thus
causing sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of
the next century. Scientists have already detected a slight rise
in sea levels. At the same time, heat would cause inland waters
to evaporate more rapidly, thus lowering the level of bodies of
water such as the Great Lakes.<br>
<br>
Dr. Hansen, who records temperatures from readings at monitoring
stations around the world, had previously reported that four of
the hottest years on record occurred in the 1980's. Compared
with a 30-year base period from 1950 to 1980, when the global
temperature averaged 59 degrees Fahrenheit, the temperature was
one-third of a degree higher last year. In the entire century
before 1880, global temperature had risen by half a degree,
rising in the late 1800's and early 20th century, then roughly
stabilizing for unknown reasons for several decades in the
middle of the century. Warmest Year Expected<br>
<br>
In the first five months of this year, the temperature averaged
about four-tenths of a degree above the base period, Dr. Hansen
reported today. ''The first five months of 1988 are so warm
globally that we conclude that 1988 will be the warmest year on
record unless there is a remarkable, improbable cooling in the
remainder of the year,'' he told the Senate committee.<br>
<br>
He also said that current climate patterns were consistent with
the projections of the greenhouse effect in several respects in
addition to the rise in temperature. For example, he said, the
rise in temperature is greater in high latitudes than in low, is
greater over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the
upper atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up.<br>
<br>
''Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe
with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship
between the greenhouse effect and observed warming,'' Dr. Hansen
said at the hearing today, adding, ''It is already happening
now.''<br>
<br>
Dr. Syukuro Manabe of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration testified
today that a number of factors, including an earlier snowmelt
each year because of higher temperatures and a rain belt that
moves farther north in the summer means that ''it is likely that
severe mid-continental summer dryness will occur more frequently
with increasing atmsopheric temperature.'' A Taste of the Future<br>
<br>
While natural climate variability is the most likely chief cause
of the current drought, Dr. Manabe said, the global warming
trend is probably ''aggravating the current dry condition.'' He
added that the current drought was a foretaste of what the
country would be facing in the years ahead.<br>
<br>
Dr. George Woodwell, director of the Woods Hole Research Center
in Woods Hole, Mass., said that while a slow warming trend would
give human society time to respond, the rate of warming is
uncertain. One factor that could speed up global warming is the
widescale destruction of forests that are unable to adjust
rapidly enough to rising temperatures. The dying forests would
release the carbon dioxide they store in their organic matter,
and thus greatly speed up the greenhouse effect. Sharp Cut in
Fuel Use Urged<br>
<br>
Dr. Woodwell, and other members of the panel, said that planning
must begin now for a sharp reduction in the burning of coal, oil
and other fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide. Because
trees absorb and store carbon dioxide, he also proposed an end
to the current rapid clearing of forests in many parts of the
world and ''a vigorous program of reforestation.''<br>
<br>
Some experts also believe that concern over global warming
caused by the burning of fossil fuels warrants a renewed effort
to develop safe nuclear power. Others stress the need for more
efficient use of energy through conservation and other measures
to curb fuel-burning.<br>
<br>
Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, an atmospheric physicist with the
Environmental Defense Fund, a national environmental group, said
a number of steps can be taken immediately around the world,
including the ratification and then strengthening of the treaty
to reduce use of chlorofluorocarbons, which are widely used
industrial chemicals that are said to contribute to the
greenhouse effect. These chemicals have also been found to
destroy ozone in the upper atmosphere that protects the earth's
surface from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun.<br>
</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html</a>
<br>
</p>
</blockquote>
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
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