<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
</head>
<body text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<p><i><font size="+1"><b>July 14, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[opinion in Forbes]<br>
<b>Billionaires claiming climate leadership should not promote space
tourism</b><br>
<blockquote>Space travel was widely popular in the 1960s. By some
accounts, the image of Earth from Apollo 8 in 1968 led to the
first Earth Day. But this is 2021, when the effects of the climate
crisis are grimly visible. Bezos and Branson in space suits will
probably not motivate a grassroots climate uprising. Climate
leaders should work towards downsizing carbon-intensive and
elitist activities such as air travel, and certainly not launch
new products such as space tourism.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/prakashdolsak/2021/07/12/billionaires-claiming-climate-leadership-should-not-promote-space-tourism/?sh=72bde1516f8a">https://www.forbes.com/sites/prakashdolsak/2021/07/12/billionaires-claiming-climate-leadership-should-not-promote-space-tourism/?sh=72bde1516f8a</a>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
[Biggest news is clearly visible from Space]<br>
<b>Oregon wildfire becomes biggest in the nation, burning over
200,000 acres</b><br>
BY ZOE CHRISTEN JONES, CAITLIN YILEK<br>
JULY 13, 2021 <br>
A wildfire raging in Oregon is currently the largest fire in the
nation, burning more than 201,000 acres across the state, officials
said Tuesday. The Bootleg Fire started in Klamath County on July 6,
forcing officials to place more than 100 homes under mandatory
evacuation orders.<br>
<br>
As of Tuesday, the fire destroyed 54 structures and 21 homes,
according to CBS affiliate KOIN. The cause of the fire is currently
unknown.<br>
<br>
Fire officials said the blaze will continue to spread in areas with
above-average temperatures and will only be fueled by dry ground and
high winds, KOIN reported. Residents living in areas with the
highest evacuation levels face citations or arrest, police said.<br>
<br>
As of Tuesday night, there were three other fires across the state:
The Jack Fire in Douglas County, the Grandview Fire near Oregon's
Crooked River National Grassland and the Bruler Fire near Detroit.
The Jack Fire has grown to more than 12,500 acres and is 15%
contained. Meanwhile, the Grandview Fire has burned over 5,700 acres
and is 5% contained, KOIN reported. The Bruler Fire, which was
detected Monday, is estimated to be about 60 acres, the U.S. Forest
Service said. It is not currently a threat to any structures or
communities, but it is 0% contained, the agency said. <br>
<br>
"This fire does have the potential to spread and the forest is very
dry," Sweet Home District Ranger and agency administrator Nikki
Swanson said in a news release. "The safety of the public and the
firefighters is our first priority. We're in the process of closing
several roads and trails to ensure firefighters can work efficiently
and that the public remains safe. This will be managed as a full
suppression fire."<br>
<br>
In California, The Beckwourth Complex fire, a combination of two
fires in Plumas National Forest, has burned more than 90,000 acres
as of Tuesday night. This fire season is sparking memories of 2020,
the worst year ever for California wildfires. This year, twice as
many acres have already burned...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bootleg-fire-oregon-biggest-nation-acres-burned/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bootleg-fire-oregon-biggest-nation-acres-burned/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[new report global temp]<br>
<b>June 2021 Global Temperature Update</b><br>
13 July 2021<br>
James Hansen and Makiko Sato<br>
Global temperature in June was +1.13°C (relative to the 1880-1920
base period, which is our best estimate of preindustrial
temperature); it was +0.85°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period.
High temperature anomalies were notable in northwest North America,
northeast Siberia, and a horseshoe-shaped area covering much of
Europe and western Asia (Fig. 1). The Pacific Northwest heatwave
continued into July with daily temperatures exceeding prior records
by several degrees, an extreme that merits discussion.<br>
<br>
One proffered explanation is the “fat tail” of climate sensitivity,
but that fat tail refers to different physical effects and is a
wrong explanation for the Pacific Northwest heat wave.[1] A correct
partial explanation is implicit in the “bell curve” for interannual
variability of local temperature based on observations.[2] Fig. 2
shows that the warming of the past half-century has caused the bell
curve to shift to the right and develop a long, fat tail. A summer
that is three or more standard deviations warmer than the 1951-1980
average – which almost never occurred during 1951-1980 – is now
rather common.<br>
<br>
If we define temperature anomalies relative to recent years – rather
then 1951-1980 – the bell curve becomes nearly symmetric again
(relative to a higher mean temperature), without a long tail at high
temperatures. However, it is appropriate to keep the base period
fixed, because humanity and nature are adapted to the climate that
has long existed. In the past few decades global temperature has
shot up well above the range of the Holocene, the past 10,000 years
(Fig. 3 in Young People’s Burden[3]). Thus, it is better to keep
the base period fixed at 1951-1980, because that is already at the
upper end of the Holocene range.<br>
The shifting bell curve due to global warming can account for record
temperatures in the U.S. Southwest this week, but a special factor
contributed to the remarkable Pacific Northwest heat wave...<br>
- -<br>
Failure of models to simulate well the effects of increasing ice
melt lead the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to
conclude that even scenarios with increasing greenhouse gas emission
will only a slowdown of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional
Circulation (AMOC) and a sea level rise only of the order of 1 meter
or less. We conclude, on the contrary that such greenhouse gas
scenarios will cause complete shutdown of the AMOC and SMOC
(Southern Ocean overturning circulation), with the latter spurring
sea level rise of several meters.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://mailchi.mp/caa/may-2021-global-temperature-update-6vdouglinl?e=c4e20a3850">https://mailchi.mp/caa/may-2021-global-temperature-update-6vdouglinl?e=c4e20a3850</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[This is just the beginning - says climate scientist]<br>
<b>Dying from the heat</b><br>
By Peter Gleick | July 2, 2021<br>
No one wants to be a statistic in a climate disaster—an anonymous
entry in a dataset of extreme events. But sometimes things sneak up
on you. A couple of weeks ago, during one of the extraordinary and
severe heat events striking western North America, I almost suffered
from heat stroke.<br>
<br>
You’d think I would know better—I’m a climate scientist and
hydrologist. I’ve been researching, writing about, and discussing
climate and weather risks for nearly four decades. I know that heat
deaths are the most prevalent of all deaths from natural disasters,
killing thousands or even tens of thousands of people every year. I
know that extreme heat events are getting worse, precisely because
of human-caused climate change.<br>
<br>
And yet, there I was, trying to dig a simple hole in the ground for
a wooden post in the dense, clay soils of the foothills of the
Sierra Nevada in 100-degree-plus heat. Fifteen minutes was all it
took for me to suddenly experience extreme dizziness and nausea. I
came very close to passing out and was only saved by two nearby
workers who brought me cold water and a cold compress to put on my
head and neck and saw me safely back to an air-conditioned
enclosure.<br>
<br>
Climate change is already causing an increase in extreme events,
including droughts and heat. The western United States is suffering
from perhaps the most widespread and severe drought in recent
history. As of early July, more than 98 percent of the American West
was suffering from drought, with more than 80 percent in severe
drought or worse. Extreme heat has struck several times since June,
breaking records throughout the region and putting more than 20
million people under heat warnings from Canada to Mexico. Portland,
Oregon broke a new record high of 115 degrees Fahrenheit; Seattle
set a new record high of 108. Temperatures in the small town of
Lytton, British Columbia, climbed to 121 degrees Fahrenheit (49.5
degrees Celsius), the highest temperature ever recorded in Canada,
and then the town was destroyed by a fast-burning wildfire.
Wildfires are now spreading rapidly throughout the region. Water
levels in the major Colorado River reservoirs are at record lows,
and Arizona and Nevada will almost certainly see reductions in their
allocations from the river next year.<br>
<br>
We’re not prepared for climate change, even in one of the wealthiest
countries of the world and even with decades of warnings from
scientists, in part because of extensive efforts of climate denial,
the waffling of politicians, and legacy infrastructure built for
yesterday’s climate, not tomorrow’s. In the Pacific Northwest, for
example, struck by the recent extreme heat, very few people have
air-conditioners, worsening the risk of heat illnesses among the
most vulnerable populations. In a severe heat wave in Europe in
2019, several thousand people died and power plants had to be shut
down because water temperatures were too high to cool them. A worse
European heat wave in 2003 killed an estimated 70,000 people.<br>
This is just the beginning. The Earth has only warmed by around a
degree or two so far and is on track for several more degrees of
warming. And yet the severe imbalances we’re now experiencing in
extreme weather are only going to get worse with each passing year
if rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can’t be achieved.
The heat extremes we’re seeing now will become the baseline—regular
events—punctuated by even more extreme high temperatures as the
planet warms further and weather patterns are increasingly
disrupted.<br>
<br>
I think I know better now than to try to do physical labor during
extreme heat. But many workers have little or no ability to avoid
these risks: farmworkers, construction workers, laborers of all
kinds who are exposed to increasingly severe conditions and are
often not informed about the risks or offered protections from them.
More people are going to get sick; more are going to die from
climate threats. Try not to be one of them, and do what you can to
get our politicians to acknowledge and work to reduce these risks.
<blockquote>Peter Gleick is a member of the US National Academy of
Sciences and a hydroclimatologist. He received a MacArthur
“genius” fellowship for his work on the consequences of climate
change for water resources, and the risks of conflicts over water.
He has pioneered and advanced the concepts of the “soft path for
water” and “peak water,” and founded the Pacific Institute.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/07/dying-from-the-heat/">https://thebulletin.org/2021/07/dying-from-the-heat/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[same goes for stream banks]<br>
<b>Researchers map how sea-level rise adaptation strategies impact
economies and floodwaters</b><br>
by Stanford University - - JULY 12, 2021<br>
Communities trying to fight sea-level rise could inadvertently make
flooding worse for their neighbors, according to a new study from
the Stanford Natural Capital Project.<br>
- -<br>
"It's not practical to keep building taller and taller seawalls to
hold back the ocean," said Anne Guerry, chief strategy officer and
lead scientist at the Stanford Natural Capital Project and senior
author on the paper. "Our goal was to show how the threat of
sea-level rise is interconnected with the whole social-ecological
system of the Bay Area. Communities need to coordinate their
approaches to sea-level rise adaptation so we can find solutions
that are best for the whole bay."<br>
<br>
By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise by almost seven feet in
the Bay Area. Millions of people live and work in buildings that are
collectively worth hundreds of billions of dollars within the Bay
Area's projected sea-level rise zone. As water levels increase,
governments are looking for ways to protect their communities and
economies.<br>
<br>
Following the flow<br>
The researchers used complex mathematical models to map how
floodwaters—and the economic damages related to floods—would flow
depending on where new seawalls were built. They found that blocking
certain areas of the bay's shoreline would be particularly damaging
to communities throughout the region. For instance, if a seawall
were built along the San Jose shoreline, communities throughout the
bay, from Redwood City to Napa and Solano counties, would face an
additional $723 million in flood damage costs after just one high
tide, according to the models.<br>
<br>
Damages to buildings and homes aren't the only losses that could
result from walling shorelines—it also can cut off habitat for
important bird and fish species, limit the natural area available to
store carbon and create water quality issues by destroying wetlands
that naturally provide water treatment.<br>
<br>
"You may be protecting your immediate community, but you may be
creating serious costs and damages for your neighbors," said Robert
Griffin, an economist at the Natural Capital Project and co-author
on the paper. "When it comes to current sea-level rise planning,
there's some incomplete cost-benefit accounting going on."..<br>
- - <br>
"It's critical to consider the regional impacts of local actions,"
said Michelle Hummel, assistant professor at the University of Texas
at Arlington and lead author on the paper. "Studies like ours can
identify actions that will have large impacts, either positive or
negative, on the rest of the bay and help to inform decisions about
how to manage the shoreline."<br>
<br>
Not every city or county has a landscape suitable for strategic
flooding, which requires wide plains or valleys where water will
naturally flow. Therefore, the researchers say it's crucial that Bay
Area communities work together to identify the places where
nature-based solutions like flooding make the most sense.<br>
<br>
The researchers also looked at demographic information in their
models to better understand who would be affected by possible
strategic flooding plans. They say avoiding adaptation plans that
add more pressure to poor or otherwise overburdened communities—by
forcing them to move or creating increased economic stress—is key.<br>
<br>
To understand the broader impacts of climate resilience decisions,
including investments in nature, the researchers plan to model how
sea-level rise adaptation strategies are connected with
infrastructure, employment, community dynamics and more.<br>
<br>
"Our plans should be as interconnected as our ecosystems," said
Guerry.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://phys.org/news/2021-07-sea-level-strategies-impact-economies-floodwaters.html">https://phys.org/news/2021-07-sea-level-strategies-impact-economies-floodwaters.html</a><br>
- -<br>
[more ]<br>
<b>Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly
influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/29/e2025961118">https://www.pnas.org/content/118/29/e2025961118</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Don't worry, lessons not learned will be repeated]<br>
<b>Study: Extreme weather may not lead to increased support for
climate action</b><br>
Many people aren’t making the connection between global warming and
weather disasters.<br>
by JENNIFER MARLON - JUNE 16, 2021<br>
<b>Hot, dry days influence perceptions</b><br>
The strong influence of partisanship on people’s understanding of
global warming may not be surprising, but are there some changes in
the weather that people are more likely to link with “global
warming?” If there are, these weather events are potential
conversation starters about climate change.<br>
<br>
In a recent study published in the journal Global Environmental
Change, my colleagues and I tried to answer this question by
combining 12 years of YPCCC survey data with 11 different
temperature and precipitation indicators of changing climate
conditions over time. Together, the indicators captured long-term
temperature and precipitation trends, and also recent extreme heat,
rainfall, and snow events between 2008-2015.<br>
<br>
We found that only one type of weather affected Americans’ beliefs
that they had experienced global warming: hot, dry days. When hot,
dry days persist for a long period of time, drought conditions
arise. In particular, the intense heat and lack of rainfall that
affected Texas in the Midwest in 2011, and which turned into a
severe drought, stands out clearly in the study’s climate data (Fig.
2, top panel). This drought was also associated with extreme
wildfires in Texas, which burned about 4 million acres that year,
doubling the previous record.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/study-extreme-weather-may-not-lead-to-increased-support-for-climate-action/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/study-extreme-weather-may-not-lead-to-increased-support-for-climate-action/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Uh oh, something to look out for in future]<br>
<b>NASA predicts a "wobble" in the moon's orbit may lead to record
flooding on Earth</b><br>
Every coast in the U.S. is facing rapidly increasing high tide
floods thanks to a "wobble" in the moon's orbit working in tandem
with climate change-fueled rising sea levels.<br>
<br>
A new study from NASA and the University of Hawaii, published
recently in the journal Nature Climate Change, warns that upcoming
changes in the moon's orbit could lead to record flooding on Earth
in the next decade. <br>
<br>
Through mapping the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's (NOAA) sea-level rise scenarios, flooding
thresholds and astronomical cycles, researchers found flooding in
American coastal cities could be several multiples worse in the
2030s, when the next moon "wobble" is expected to begin. They expect
the flooding to significantly damage infrastructure and displace
communities...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/nasa-wobble-moon-orbit-record-flooding-earth-sea-level-rise-climate-change/">https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/nasa-wobble-moon-orbit-record-flooding-earth-sea-level-rise-climate-change/</a>
<p>- -</p>
[Paper]<br>
Published: 21 June 2021<br>
<b>Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United
States high-tide flooding</b><br>
Philip R. Thompson, Matthew J. Widlansky, Benjamin D. Hamlington,
Mark A. Merrifield, John J. Marra, Gary T. Mitchum & William
Sweet <br>
Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages584–590 (2021)<br>
<blockquote>Abstract<br>
Coastal locations around the United States, particularly along the
Atlantic coast, are experiencing recurrent flooding at high tide.
Continued sea-level rise (SLR) will exacerbate the issue where
present, and many more locations will begin to experience
recurrent high-tide flooding (HTF) in the coming decades. Here we
use established SLR scenarios and flooding thresholds to
demonstrate how the combined effects of SLR and nodal cycle
modulations of tidal amplitude lead to acute inflections in
projections of future HTF. The mid-2030s, in particular, may see
the onset of rapid increases in the frequency of HTF in multiple
US coastal regions. We also show how annual cycles and sea-level
anomalies lead to extreme seasons or months during which many days
of HTF cluster together. Clustering can lead to critical
frequencies of HTF occurring during monthly or seasonal periods
one to two decades prior to being expected on an annual basis.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01077-8">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01077-8</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[NYTimes]<br>
<b>Climate Change Future for Kids</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/18/climate/climate-change-future-kids.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/18/climate/climate-change-future-kids.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<br>
[The news archive - looking back]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming July
14, 2008</b></font><br>
<br>
On MSNBC's "Countdown," fill-in host Rachel Maddow describes another
controversy that has left the US feeling "Bushed":<br>
<br>
"Number one, serial driller-gate. President Bush today lifted an
executive order banning off-shore drilling. It‘s an order that
dates back to the other President Bush. The move accomplishes
nothing, because Congress still has its own ban in effect. But
that‘s not the only way we know this is pure politics. According to
Mr. Bush‘s own Energy Information Administration, off-shore
production could not even start until five years after the off-shore
sites were leased. So that‘s 2013. Off-shore sites could not
significantly impact U.S. production until 18 years after leasing.
So that's 2026. <br>
<br>
"And the impact on prices from off-shore drilling when the oil
finally starts flowing in 2026? Because oil prices are set on a
global market, the EIA says the offshore impact on prices would be,
quote, insignificant. But the political impact, priceless."<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHvqjj3yeDA">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHvqjj3yeDA</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/</p>
<br>
/Archive of Daily Global Warming News <a
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html"
moz-do-not-send="true"><https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html></a>
/<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote</a><br>
<br>
/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe <a
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:subscribe@theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request"
moz-do-not-send="true"><mailto:subscribe@theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request></a>
to news digest./<br>
<br>
- Privacy and Security:*This mailing is text-only. It does not
carry images or attachments which may originate from remote
servers. A text-only message can provide greater privacy to the
receiver and sender. This is a hobby production curated by Richard
Pauli<br>
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain cannot be used for
commercial purposes. Messages have no tracking software.<br>
To subscribe, email: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="mailto:contact@theclimate.vote" moz-do-not-send="true">contact@theclimate.vote</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:contact@theclimate.vote" moz-do-not-send="true"><mailto:contact@theclimate.vote></a>
with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, subject: unsubscribe<br>
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote</a><br>
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://TheClimate.Vote"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://TheClimate.Vote</a> <a
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://TheClimate.Vote/"
moz-do-not-send="true"><http://TheClimate.Vote/></a>
delivering succinct information for citizens and responsible
governments of all levels. List membership is confidential and
records are scrupulously restricted to this mailing list.<br>
<br>
<br>
</body>
</html>