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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>July 25, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[get ready]<b><br>
</b><b>US set for punishing temperatures as huge ‘heat dome’ to
settle over country</b><br>
Heatwave to next week roast areas already gripped by severe drought,
plunging reservoirs and wildfires<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/24/america-heatwave-climate-crisis-heat-dome">https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/24/america-heatwave-climate-crisis-heat-dome</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[NOAA Climate Prediction Center]<br>
<b>6 to 10 Day Outlooks</b><br>
Valid: July 29 to August 02, 2021<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/">https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[POV PGE camera ]<br>
<b>Fly Fire: Indian Ridge ALERT Wildfire camera burn over 1PM, July
24th, 2021</b><br>
Jul 24, 2021nvseismolab<br>
Deja Vu: first camera burn over of the 2021 wildfire season atop
Indian Ridge as the Fly Fire crests the ridge. So far the
ALERTWildfire camera and radio equipment have survived, so far ...<br>
[set playback to lowest speed - the timecode is difficult to read,
but this may be an hour duration]<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJlnLP_l8nw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJlnLP_l8nw</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[some science]<br>
<b>Santa Ana winds and power line failures found to be behind autumn
and winter fires in Southern California</b><br>
by Bob Yirka , Phys.org - JULY 22, 2021 REPORT<br>
<br>
A team of researchers affiliated with multiple institutions in the
U.S. and one in Canada has found that the increasing number of large
fires in Southern California during the autumn and winter months are
mostly due to the Santa Ana winds and power line failures, rather
than rising temperatures. In their paper published in the journal
Science Advances, the group describes their study of fires in
Southern California going back to 1948.<br>
<br>
Large wildfires in California regularly make the news because of
their magnitude and ferocity. Some studies have shown that they are
increasing in frequency and intensity as the planet grows warmer. In
this new effort, the researchers note that there are two fire
seasons in California, but only one of them is growing worse due to
climate change.<br>
<br>
In California, the two fire seasons are summer and autumn through
winter. Prior research has shown that most summer fires are ignited
by lightning in remote locations. Autumn and winter fires, on the
other hand, are almost always ignited by humans via arson and power
line failures.<br>
<br>
Power lines can start a fire in several ways, including downed
lines, vegetation contact and equipment failures that lead to
arcing. And because power lines are strung in places where people
live and work, such fires tend to be closer to towns and cities.
Power line failures can occur at any time during the year, but
autumn and winter season have the worst fires because they are
pushed by the speed and strength of the Santa Ana winds.<br>
<br>
To learn more about autumn and winter fires, the researchers pored
over data describing wildfires in Southern California from 1948 to
2018 along with associated weather data. In so doing, they found no
link between rising temperatures or decreases in rainfall to account
for the increase in fires. Instead, they found it was mostly due to
increases in the size of power grids and encroachment by humans onto
forested lands. They suggest that the way to reduce the number of
such fires is to put more resources into maintaining power lines and
put new ones underground.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2021-07-santa-ana-power-line-failures.html">https://phys.org/news/2021-07-santa-ana-power-line-failures.html</a>
<p> </p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[Ooops, poop dumping by cruise ships]<br>
<b>Deadly coral disease sweeping Caribbean linked to wastewater
from ships</b><br>
Researchers find ‘significant relationship’ between stony coral
tissue loss disease and nearby shipping<br>
Jewel Fraser in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad --22 Jul 2021 <br>
A virulent and fast-moving coral disease that has swept through
the Caribbean could be linked to waste or ballast water from
ships, according to research.<br>
<br>
The deadly infection, known as stony coral tissue loss disease
(SCTLD), was first identified in Florida in 2014, and has since
moved through the region, causing great concern among
scientists...<br>
- -<br>
Conducted in the Bahamas by scientists at the Perry Institute for
Marine Science, it found that SCTLD was more prevalent in reefs
that were closer to the Bahamas’ main commercial ports, in Nassau
and Grand Bahama, suggesting a likely link between the disease and
ships...<br>
- -<br>
Currently, the most effective treatment for the disease is the
application of the antibiotic amoxicillin directly to the corals,
which has seen some success in reducing mortality, but no
realistic permanent solution is available.<br>
<br>
According to Lang, rather than treating the symptoms, there is a
need to tackle the possible human-made causes. “Given a chance,
nature can heal naturally,” she said.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/22/deadly-coral-disease-sweeping-caribbean-linked-to-wastewater-from-ships">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/22/deadly-coral-disease-sweeping-caribbean-linked-to-wastewater-from-ships</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[hot reactors need cool waters]<br>
<b>Nuclear power’s reliability is dropping as extreme weather
increases</b><br>
A comprehensive analysis shows that warmer temperatures aren't the
only threat.<br>
K. E. D. COAN - 7/24/2021<br>
Tth extreme weather causing power failures in California and Texas,
it's increasingly clear that the existing power infrastructure isn't
designed for these new conditions. Past research has shown that
nuclear power plants are no exception, with rising temperatures
creating cooling problems for them. Now, a comprehensive analysis
looking at a broader range of climate events shows that it's not
just hot weather that puts these plants at risk—it's the full range
of climate disturbances.<br>
<br>
Heat has been one of the most direct threats, as higher temperatures
mean that the natural cooling sources (rivers, oceans, lakes) are
becoming less efficient heat sinks. However, this new analysis shows
that hurricanes and typhoons have become the leading causes of
nuclear outages, at least in North America and South and East Asia.
Precautionary shutdowns for storms are routine, and so this finding
is perhaps not so surprising. But other factors—like the clogging of
cooling intake pipes by unusually abundant jellyfish populations—are
a bit less obvious.<br>
<br>
Overall, this latest analysis calculates that the frequency of
climate-related nuclear plant outages is almost eight times higher
than it was in the 1990s. The analysis also estimates that the
global nuclear fleet will lose up to 1.4 percent—about 36 TWh—of its
energy production in the next 40 years and up to 2.4 percent, or 61
TWh, by 2081-2100...<br>
- -<br>
The two main categories of climate disruptions broke down into
thermal disruptions (heat, drought, and wildfire) and storms
(including hurricanes, typhoons, lightning, and flooding). In the
case of heat and drought, the main problem is the lack of
cool-enough water—or in the case of drought, enough water at all—to
cool the reactor. However, there were also a number of outages due
to ecological responses to warmer weather; for example, larger than
usual jellyfish populations have blocked the intake pipes on some
reactors.<br>
<br>
Storms and wildfires, on the other hand, caused a range of problems,
including structural damage, precautionary preemptive shutdowns,
reduced operations, and employee evacuations. In the timeframe of
2010 to 2019, the leading causes of outages were hurricanes and
typhoons in most parts of the world, although heat was still the
leading factor in Western Europe (France in particular). While these
represented the most frequent causes, the analysis also showed that
droughts were the source of the longest disruptions and thus the
largest power losses.<br>
<br>
The author calculated that the average frequency of climate-linked
outages went from 0.2 outages per year in the 1990s to 1.5 outages
in the timeframe of 2010 to 2019. A retrospective analysis further
showed that, for every 1° C rise in temperature (above the average
temperature between 1951 and 1980), the energy output of the global
fleet fell about 0.5 percent...<br>
<b>- -</b><br>
"Existing nuclear plants are already among the most resilient assets
of our energy infrastructure," writes Buongiorno. "The current fleet
is adapting to rising sea levels (for those plants located in areas
at potential risk of flood) and the increasing intensity of storms.
New nuclear reactor technologies will be even more resilient, as in
many instances that are being designed to be dry cooled (i.e., not
using river/ocean water for rejecting heat to the ambient) as well
as capable of operating in 'island mode,' i.e., disconnected from
the grid and ready to restart before other large power plants in the
event of a blackout."<br>
<br>
Other nuclear technologies, such as pebble-bed, molten salt, and
advanced small modulator reactors, may also provide more
climate-resistant solutions, but these are all still under
development. In general, the strict regulations in place for nuclear
reactors make incorporating newer technologies particularly
difficult. Even as these technologies become available, it will
likely require further reactor downtime to install new components.
So, at least in the short term, even nuclear power will likely
contribute to the increasing frequency of climate-related power
shortages.<br>
Nature Energy, 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00849-y (About DOIs).<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/climate-events-are-the-leading-cause-of-nuclear-power-outages/">https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/climate-events-are-the-leading-cause-of-nuclear-power-outages/</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[from the Journal Nature Energy]<br>
<b>Increase in frequency of nuclear power outages due to changing
climate</b><br>
Ali Ahmad <br>
Nature Energy volume 6, pages755–762 (2021)Cite this article<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
Climate-related changes have already affected operating conditions
for different types of energy system, in particular power plants.
With more than three decades of data on changing climate, we are
now in a position to empirically assess the impact of climate
change on power plant operations. Such empirical assessments can
provide an additional measure of the resilience of power plants
going forward. Here I analyse climate-linked outages in nuclear
power plants over the past three decades. My assessment shows that
the average frequency of climate-induced disruptions has
dramatically increased from 0.2 outage per reactor-year in the
1990s to 1.5 in the past decade. Based on the projections for
adopted climate scenarios, the average annual energy loss of the
global nuclear fleet is estimated to range between 0.8% and 1.4%
in the mid-term (2046–2065) and 1.4% and 2.4% in the long term
(2081–2100).<br>
</blockquote>
Nature Energy, 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00849-y (About DOIs).
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<p>[More than a Pope-mobile]<br>
<b>Conference primes US church for bolder responses to Laudato
Si', climate change</b><br>
Jul 19, 2021<br>
by Brian Roewe <br>
For three days in online spaces and forums, thousands of Catholics
looked to prime the U.S. church for a fuller-throated response to
climate change and Pope Francis' invitation to become a central
component in the global response to the ecological challenges
facing the world.<br>
<br>
More than 2,600 people registered for the virtual "Laudato Si' and
the U.S. Catholic Church" conference, the second of three
co-organized by Catholic Climate Covenant and Creighton University
to amplify the country's response to Francis' 2015 encyclical
"Laudato Si', on Care for Our Common Home." The first gathering
took place in 2019 on the Jesuit campus in Omaha, Nebraska, and
the final is set for 2023.<br>
<br>
Much of this middle conference, held July 13-15, was geared toward
updates and preparations for the full release of the Vatican's
Laudato Si' Action Platform in the fall. The ambitious project,
developed by the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human
Development, invites church institutions large and small to commit
to seven-year plans toward total sustainability, including
becoming carbon neutral and expanding ecological education, in the
spirit of Laudato Si'...<br>
- -<br>
Nevertheless, presenters said, it is important not to let doubters
hold up the work when scientists — and the Vatican — say there is
no time to waste.<br>
<br>
"We need to do the work and not wait for our leaders to lead us,"
said Patrick Barredo, director of social outreach and advocacy for
St. James Cathedral in Seattle, who has helped form a grassroots
creation care network in the archdiocese and wrote to Archbishop
Paul Etienne asking that he launch a series of climate
initiatives.<br>
<br>
Toward the end of the conference, Delio was asked how she
maintains hope amid increasing scenes of creation's destruction.<br>
<br>
The Franciscan sister replied she tries to be mindful of her own
actions — even picking up earthworms along walking paths to
protect them, as St. Francis of Assisi did — believing in God's
goodness, and celebrating life, even when things look dark.<br>
<br>
"Truthfully, I think we need to lighten up. We need to laugh
more," Delio said, before adding, "Yes, it is bad. I'm not saying
it isn't. But it's not over. This is not an over-and-done
universe. God is inviting us to wake up, to get up and to make
something new together."<br>
<br>
Brian Roewe is NCR environment correspondent. His email address is
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated"
href="mailto:broewe@ncronline.org">broewe@ncronline.org</a>.
Follow him on Twitter at @brianroewe.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/earthbeat/conference-primes-us-church-bolder-responses-laudato-si-climate-change">https://www.ncronline.org/news/earthbeat/conference-primes-us-church-bolder-responses-laudato-si-climate-change</a><br>
<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[DeSmogBlog]<br>
<b>Investigation: How the Meat Industry is Climate-Washing its
Polluting Business Model</b><br>
Growing global meat consumption threatens to derail the Paris
Agreement, but that hasn’t stopped the meat industry insisting it is
part of the solution to climate change.<br>
Caroline Christenon - - Jul 18, 2021 <br>
<blockquote>
<blockquote>“They’re paid to comfort us. They’re paid to get us to
not think hard and deeply about the industry. They’re paid to
assuage our worries. And they’re paid to tell regulators: ‘Don’t
worry, we’ll self-regulate. We’ll do a good job. You don’t need
to worry about us. We are good actors.’”<br>
Jennifer Jacquet, Associate Professor of Environmental Studies<br>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.desmog.com/2021/07/18/investigation-meat-industry-greenwash-climatewash/">https://www.desmog.com/2021/07/18/investigation-meat-industry-greenwash-climatewash/</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
[the key propaganda organization]<br>
<b>AHDB Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.desmog.com/agribusiness-database-Agriculture-Horticulture-Development-Board/">https://www.desmog.com/agribusiness-database-Agriculture-Horticulture-Development-Board/</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p> </p>
<br>
[Clim-migration]<br>
<b>Climate Migration May Lead to the Next Great Housing Crisis |
NBCLX</b><br>
Apr 23, 2021<br>
NBCLX<br>
Climate migration and gentrification will accelerate as the United
States faces an accelerating sea level rise, more intense heatwaves,
wildfires, and even mega hurricanes, all worsened by a warming
planet.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE3N1f2XgGQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE3N1f2XgGQ</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[Are you still reading? Try this from The Guardian:]<br>
Interview<br>
<b>Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world
prediction</b><br>
Edward Helmore - - July 25, 2021<br>
- -<br>
“The key finding of my study is that we still have a choice to align
with a scenario that does not end in collapse. With innovation in
business, along with new developments by governments and civil
society, continuing to update the model provides another perspective
on the challenges and opportunities we have to create a more
sustainable world.”<br>
<br>
At the same time, she says, the primary concern of the MIT study
have been supplanted. “Resource scarcity has not been the challenge
people thought it would be in the 70s and population growth has not
be the scare it was in the 90s. Now the concern is pollution and how
it perfectly aligned with what climate scientists are saying,” she
said.<br>
- -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[From the news archive - and I read this original Walter Sullivan
article in 1977]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming July
25, 1977</b></font><br>
The New York Times ran this front-page story <br>
<blockquote>
<p><b>Scientists Fear Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in
Climate</b><br>
By Walter Sullivan<br>
July 25, 1977<br>
</p>
<p>Highly adverse consequences” may follow if the world, as now
seems likely, depends increasingly on coal for energy over the
next two centuries, according to a blue‐ribbon panel of
scientists.<br>
<br>
In a report to the National Academy of Sciences on their
two‐and‐a‐half‐year study, the scientists foresee serious
climate changes beginning in the next century. By the latter
part of the 22d century a global warming of 10 degrees
Fahrenheit is indicated, with triple that rise in high
latitudes.<br>
<br>
This, it is feared, could radically disrupt food production,
lead to a 20‐foot rise in sea level and seriously lower
productivity of the oceans.<br>
<br>
The focus of concern is the addition of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere by fuel burning. While that gas represents less than
one‐tenth of 1 percent of the atmosphere, it acts like glass in
a greenhouse. That is, it permits passage of sunlight to heat
the earth but absorbs infrared radiation that would otherwise
return some of that heat to space.<br>
<br>
In recent months several scientists have warned of the
consequences of increasing, long‐term dependence on fossil
fuels, notably coal, as the chief energy source because of what
could be disastrous effects on climate. The argument has been
seized on by advocates of nuclear energy.<br>
<br>
The new study does not deal with alternative energy sources. Nor
does it call for early curtailment of coal burning. Heavy use of
such fuel is being promoted by the Carter Administration as a
means of avoiding excessive dependence on nuclear energy.<br>
<br>
The central recommendation of the re port, prepared with help
from a number of Government agencies, laboratories and computer
facilities, is initiation of farreaching studies on a national
and international basis to narrow the many uncertainties that
affect assessment of the threat.<br>
<br>
To this end, it proposes creation by the Federal Governmment of
a climatic council to coordinate American efforts and to
participate in the development of international studies.
Representatives of the White House and Government agencies that
would be involved in such an effort were at the academy on
Friday to hear presentations on the 281‐page report.<br>
<br>
These were offered by Roger R. Revelle, chairman of the
15‐member panel, and by Philip H. Abelson and Thomas F. Malone,
co‐chairmen of the academy's geophysics study committee, which
initiated the project.<br>
Dr. Revelle heads the Center for Population Studies at Harvard
University and was formerly director of the Scripps Institution
of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. Dr. Abelson heads the
Carnegie Institution of Washington. Dr. Malone, who directs the
Holcomb Research Institute at Butler University in Indianapolis,
has for many years been a leader in weather research.<br>
<br>
Dr. Malone said that the report was not a red light on coal use,
nor a green light, but rather a “flashing yellow light” saying,
“Watch out.” Dr. Revelle, in a summary of the findings, said
that early action was needed because it would take decades to
narrow the uncertainties and then a full generation to shift to
new energy sources if that, as expected, proves necessary.<br>
<br>
<b>Problem of Change Stressed</b><br>
<br>
“An interdisciplinary effort of an almost unique kind” is
needed, he said, bringing together specialists from such fields
as mathematics, chemistry, meteorology and the social sciences.
A major challenge would be to find ways to bring about the
needed institutional changes, persuading governments and people
to act before it was too late.<br>
<br>
By the end of this century, Dr. Revelle said, it is expected
that the carbon dioxide content of the air will have risen 25
percent above its level before the Industrial Revolution. By the
end of the next century, it will have doubled, based on
predicted increases in population and fuel consumption.<br>
<br>
By the middle of the 22d Century, he added, it should have
increased from four to eight times and, even if fuel burning
diminishes then, it will remain that high “at least 1,000 years
thereafter.”<br>
<br>
It is estimated that in the last 110 years 127 billion tons of
carbon derived from fuel and from limestone used to make cement
have been introduced into the atmosphere. Cement manufacture
accounted for 2 percent of that amount and burning for the rest.<br>
<br>
A considerable part of the carbon dioxide increase is attributed
to clearing land for agriculture. This added 70 billion tons,
according to an estimate that Dr. Revelle, however, described as
“very uncertain.” He noted that one acre of a tropical forest
removes 100 tons of carbon from the atmosphere. When the land is
cleared that carbon, through burning or decay, returns to the
air. More than half of land clearing for agriculture has
occurred since the mid‐19th Century, he said.<br>
<br>
Dr. Revelle termed the predicted worldwide rise of 11 degrees in
the 22d century “a very shaky conclusion” based on inadequate
knowledge. But, he added, it is “a possibility that must be
taken seriously.” Part of the uncertainty concerns the amount of
added atmospheric carbon dioxide that would be absorbed by the
oceans and plant growth. He predicted that a research program to
achieve more reliable estimates would cost $20 million to $100
million.<br>
<br>
<b>Shift in Corn Belt Seen</b><b><br>
</b><br>
Much of the report deals with expected effects of a global
warming. Agricultural zones would be transferred to higher
latitudes. The corn belt, for example, would shift from fertile
Iowa to a Canadian region where the soil is far less fertile,
Dr. Revelle said.<br>
<br>
Particularly vulnerable, he added, would be the fringes of arid
regions, where a large part of the world population derives its
sustenance, though the effect is difficult to predict. Marine
life would suffer from lack of nutrients because a “lid” of warm
water would impede circulation that normally brings nutrients to
the surface.<br>
<br>
On the other hand, plant productivity, Dr. Revelle noted, could
rise 50 percent because plants would be “fertilized” by the
higher carbon dioxide content of the air. The warmer climate
could melt the floating pack ice of the Arctic Ocean, leading to
radical changes in the Northern climate.<br>
<br>
The report suggests that increased snowfall on Antarctica could
overload the West Antarctic ice sheet, sending large sections of
it into the sea. This would raise global sea levels 16 feet. The
oceans would swell from being warmed to make the total rise 20
feet.<br>
<br>
The study assumed a world population of 10 billion by late in
the next century and a fivefold increase over present ener‐i gy
consumption. The direct effect of heat from such energy use
would be insignificant except locally, the report says.<br>
<br>
It also assumed that for public health reasons the release of
particles into the atmosphere would be sufficiently curtailed
for their role to be a minor one so far as climate is concerned.<br>
<br>
A number of research strategies are proposed to reduce
uncertainties. The most ambiguous estimates concern the role of
plants. It is estimated that land plants annually remove 55
billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere, and that oceanic
plants take up another 25 billion tons.<br>
<br>
One of the firmer estimates concerns the current rise in carbon
dioxide content of the air because of measurements conducted
largely by Dr. Charles D. Keeling of the University of
California at San Diego. These have been made atop Mauna Loa,
the Hawaiian volcano, and at the South Pole, both sites being
far removed from local sources of pollution. They show a 5
percent rise in the last 15 years. The total rise to date has
been 11.5 to 13.5 percent.<br>
</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FB0F11F8395E137B93C7AB178CD85F438785F9">http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FB0F11F8395E137B93C7AB178CD85F438785F9</a><br>
</p>
<br>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/</p>
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