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<p><i><font size="+1"><b>July 29, 2021</b></font></i></p>
[daily fire newscast - mostly good news]<br>
<b>Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, Tamarack Fire, and Other
Western Wildfires</b><br>
7-28-2021 - 8 pm<br>
Holt Hanley Weather - 6.03K subscribers<br>
Mostly good news coming out for all of our Western Wildfires. Fire
weather conditions have been more favorable over the last few days,
leading to reduced fire behavior and increased containment. A number
of firing operations have been in place to clear out the fuels and
continue to secure the perimeter.<br>
The big question mark over the last few days was how the
thunderstorms moving through the area would interact with our fires.
We saw some gusty winds pick up yesterday afternoon due to a
thunderstorm, which delayed a firing operation, but overall, this
round of thunderstorms was much better than the first round a week
ago. We even picked up some decent rainfall over our fires with this
last round.<br>
With that being said, we have more monsoonal moisture flowing in as
we edge toward the weekend, so we'll have to stay tuned as you never
really know how wildfires and thunderstorms will interact.<br>
Throughout this video, we'll dive into all the important updates, as
well as the fire weather forecast to predict how all these wildfires
may change in the coming days.<br>
You can subscribe to stay updated on all major wildfires throughout
the 2021 season.<br>
I hope this video was helpful, and thanks for watching.<br>
- -<br>
You can also check out my Twitter page where I post more concise
updates on the current wildfires:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/HoltHanleyWX">https://twitter.com/HoltHanleyWX</a><br>
Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, Tamarack Fire, and Other Western
Wildfires - Chapters:<br>
0:00 = Introduction<br>
0:23 = Dixie Fire Update/Forecast<br>
20:18 = Tamarack Fire Update/Forecast<br>
29:40 = Air Quality Update<br>
31:12 = Summary of Western Wildfires<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEHiQfK_tz0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEHiQfK_tz0</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
[Cough, cough]<br>
<b>Heavy wildfire smoke linked to increased COVID-19 risk,
researchers say</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/565070-heavy-wildfire-smoke-linked-to-increased-covid-19-risk-researchers">https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/565070-heavy-wildfire-smoke-linked-to-increased-covid-19-risk-researchers</a><br>
- -<br>
<b>From heavy metals to COVID-19, wildfire smoke is more dangerous
than you think</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bangordailynews.com/2021/07/26/news/nation/from-heavy-metals-to-covid-19-wildfire-smoke-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think/">https://bangordailynews.com/2021/07/26/news/nation/from-heavy-metals-to-covid-19-wildfire-smoke-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
[about the FERC - and the difference between subsidizing a business
and building a market]<br>
<b>Volts podcast: Rep. Sean Casten on Hot FERC Summer</b><br>
Why this obscure federal agency is central to the Democrats' climate
plans.<br>
David Roberts<br>
Listen in podcast app <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.volts.wtf/account/add-podcast">https://www.volts.wtf/account/add-podcast</a><br>
<br>
As Volts subscribers are well aware, the fastest way to decarbonize
the US economy is through clean electrification — decarbonizing the
electricity sector and shifting energy use in other sectors like
transportation and buildings over to electricity.<br>
<br>
How can the federal government help that process along? Most control
over power utilities and markets lies at the state level. There's
only one federal agency with real jurisdiction over electricity: the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC.<br>
<br>
FERC is not an agency people many people follow, or even know about
— in fact, in the Volts household, it has become a kind of jokey
shorthand for "the boring stuff dad writes about."<br>
<br>
But it could play a key role in implementing Biden's climate agenda.
And it has come to a crucial crossroads. <br>
<br>
FERC has five commissioners. Currently, three are Republicans, but
one of them, Neil Chatterjee, came to the end of his term on June
30. He has agreed to stay on temporarily because Biden, somewhat
inexplicably, has yet to formally nominate anyone to replace him.
Until he does, and the Senate confirms, the commission will not have
a Democratic majority and won’t be able to get anything big done.<br>
<br>
That’s unfortunate, because FERC has lots of big decisions to make —
about transmission, electricity rates, and markets — with
potentially transformative consequences. But the agency moves
slowly, with rulemakings taking months or years, and it only has
three and a half years to get everything done. Biden needs to get
someone in that seat.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9004727-87f0-4cda-bb01-29431edf192d_3600x3600.jpeg">https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9004727-87f0-4cda-bb01-29431edf192d_3600x3600.jpeg</a><br>
<br>
Enter Rep. Sean Casten. The Democrat from Illinois' 6th District, on
the west side of Chicago, is trying to draw attention to FERC and
the importance of a bold and climate-minded new commissioner. He’s
leading a communications campaign called "Hot FERC Summer," a twist
on Megan Thee Stallion's "Hot Girl Summer." (Hey, nobody said
getting eyes on FERC was easy.)<br>
<br>
Casten, a member of the House Select Committee on the Climate
Crisis, recently delivered a floor speech filled with
Stallion-related puns of varying cheesiness, calling on Biden and
Dems to nominate and approve a new commissioner quickly. He has also
co-authored bills on transmission siting and ratemaking that clarify
and reinforce FERC's obligation to take climate change into account
in its decisions.<br>
<br>
I have known Sean since the 2010s, when he was the CEO of a waste
heat recovery company called Recycled Energy Development. His long
experience in the clean energy industry informed some sharp
analysis, and he occasionally wrote guest posts for my blog at
Grist, the environmental news site I worked for at the time. <br>
<br>
As you can imagine, it was a delight to see him win a seat in
Congress in 2018, bringing his deep energy expertise to a body that
has often lacked it. I was excited to geek out with him about FERC
and the state of congressional energy politics.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-rep-sean-casten-on?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMzY4NzE5OSwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzkxNDU0MDMsIl8iOiJyNzJObSIsImlhdCI6MTYyNzQ5MzAyNiwiZXhwIjoxNjI3NDk2NjI2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTkzMDI0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.xviSFsZKQkfgT2avN1DGkAbcQ9hajRyGlucaPhOjHwM&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#play">https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-rep-sean-casten-on?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMzY4NzE5OSwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzkxNDU0MDMsIl8iOiJyNzJObSIsImlhdCI6MTYyNzQ5MzAyNiwiZXhwIjoxNjI3NDk2NjI2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTkzMDI0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.xviSFsZKQkfgT2avN1DGkAbcQ9hajRyGlucaPhOjHwM&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#play</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[the land, not the warehouse ]<br>
<b>Amazon Near Climate Tipping Point</b><br>
Stream/download this segment as an MP3 file
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://loe.org/content/2021-07-23/LOE_210723_A1_Amazon%20Carbon%20Source.mp3">https://loe.org/content/2021-07-23/LOE_210723_A1_Amazon%20Carbon%20Source.mp3</a><br>
- -<br>
COVEY: Yeah. So there's a lot of debate about what is exactly the
tipping point, do we get there at 40% deforestation from looking at
purely models about rainfall and evapotranspiration, and how much of
the rain comes through trees? How much has the effect of climate
change, and the increase of warming in the region? Does that make
that tipping point closer and it's 20%, or it's 25% deforestation?
What we can say is that we're at 17% deforestation right now. And
that, we won't know that we've crossed the tipping point until we're
looking back at the other side of it. And that's going to be a
really bad spot to be in. What this newest study can tell us is that
we're seeing the kinds of changes in the biophysical system that we
would expect to see as we arrive at the tipping point. And so in
this southeastern portion of the Amazon, where deforestation rates
are in the thirty-percents, right, so the original forest is cut, a
third has been lost, what we're starting to see is, again, larger
than average warming in that region. We're seeing less rainfall, and
we're seeing the dry season extended. And so along with that, the
forest of the trees are suffering during the driest season. And so
we're seeing tree mortality. And those trees, which are dead then
can burn more easily. And so what we're seeing is the setup for a
really bad cyclical decline, where the degradation feeds further
degradation, which is exactly the concern of the tipping point. And
so while we've been looking at this and saying it's going to happen,
it's going to happen. Now we have good regional data for a portion
of the Amazon that says a lot of the things that we would expect to
happen as we approach the tipping point, a lot of those things that
we would expect to happen are starting to happen...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=21-P13-00030&segmentID=1&mc_cid=3ec33bb068&mc_eid=c0e3fd9032">https://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=21-P13-00030&segmentID=1&mc_cid=3ec33bb068&mc_eid=c0e3fd9032</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
[DW report]<br>
<b>Climate tipping points are now imminent, scientists warn</b><br>
Around 13,000 researchers have called for urgent action to slow down
the climate emergency as extreme weather patterns shock the world.
They listed three core measures.<br>
Thousands of scientists reiterated calls for immediate action over
the climate crisis in an article published Wednesday in the journal
BioScience. <br>
<br>
"The extreme climate events and patterns that we've witnessed over
the last several years — not to mention the last several weeks —
highlight the heightened urgency with which we must address the
climate crisis," said Philip Duffy, co-author of the study and
executive director of the Woodwell Climate Research Center in the US
state of Massachusetts.<br>
<br>
Two years ago, more than 10,000 scientists from around 150 countries
jointly declared a global climate emergency. They are now joined by
over 2,800 more signatories in urging the protection of life on
Earth. ..<br>
<br>
Since the 2019 declaration, Earth has seen an "unprecedented surge"
in climate-related disasters, researchers noted. <br>
What are the signs? <br>
For the study, researchers relied on "vital signs" to measure
planetary health, including greenhouse gas emissions, glacier
thickness, sea-ice extent and deforestation. Out of 31 signs,
scientists found that 18 hit record highs or lows. <br>
<br>
The year 2020 was the second-hottest year since records began,
scientists said. And earlier this year, the carbon dioxide
concentration in the Earth's atmosphere was higher than at any time
since measurements began.<br>
<br>
The authors noted that all-time low levels of ice mass have been
recorded in Greenland and Antarctica. Glaciers are melting 31%
faster than they did just 15 years ago, they added. <br>
<br>
Meanwhile, the annual loss rate of the Brazilian Amazon reached a
12-year high in 2020. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-tipping-points-are-now-imminent-scientists-warn/a-58665256">https://www.dw.com/en/climate-tipping-points-are-now-imminent-scientists-warn/a-58665256</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[Yikes]<br>
<b>‘Adapt or We’ll Break’: A Water Expert Lays Out the West’s Risky
Future in the Megadrought Era</b><br>
"Eventually, we’ll either have to adapt, or we’ll break."<br>
Molly Taft - July 28, 2021<br>
The West’s megadrought has produced no shortage of terrible stories.
Drought conditions have enveloped 90% of the region, leading to
record low water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two
largest reservoirs in the U.S., as well as countless other smaller
water systems throughout the region.<br>
<br>
The impacts have extended beyond manmade bodies of water, though.
Rivers and other lakes in the region have run hot and dry,
endangering wildlife. And forests have been charred by wildfires,
running the risk of befouling lakes and streams.<br>
<br>
All of these are indicators that the West’s water supplies and
burgeoning population are on a collision course. Factoring in
climate change, which is expected to make the region’s precipitation
more erratic and lead to heat that will further strain water
resources, and it’s clear the situation is pretty dire. But these
are huge forces, and it can be hard to understand what all this
actually means.<br>
- -<br>
Another interesting thing—the biggest crop we grow in the U.S. is
grass. Not the grass the cows are munching on, but the grass that
you or I might have in our backyard, that we’re watering, we’re not
eating. It’s crazy that we are using this much water to grow
something that we don’t even need.<br>
<br>
Earther: I remember the last time California was in a drought, there
were water restrictions in Los Angeles that came with fines, but the
rich people who wanted to keep their lawns just went ahead and did
it, and some of them were able to pay the high fines for it. It does
seem like in the system as it stands, there are a whole lot of
possibilities for water to be something that people who can pay for
it can still access water in abundance.<br>
<br>
Ajami: Yeah, and that’s a great point. We have to talk about equity
and justice and access—should people who can pay for grass be
allowed to have grass? At the end of the day, that’s sort of how
we’re paying for electricity—people who can afford to have 50
different TVs in their homes, they’re paying the bill, but not
everybody needs to or wants to do that. The reality is, just because
we don’t want to promote extreme use doesn’t mean we shouldn’t
charge people more. Right now, what we’re doing with the cost of
water is that not only are we not charging people properly, but
we’re not helping low-income communities either because we don’t
have the resources to invest in systems that they need.<br>
<br>
Earther: What sort of changes do you foresee in folks’s everyday
life as the drought gets worse?<br>
<br>
Ajami: There’s a wish list and actual trends. People who are
building a lot of new tech campuses are doing a lot to recycle
water. There are discussions around the price of water, there are
discussions around doing more with drain water systems, there are a
lot of efforts around conservation efficiency, lots of efforts to
clean up polluted groundwater basins. That’s another crazy thing—we
never used to care about our groundwater. Industrial activities have
polluted groundwater supplies because we never thought we would need
them. California and some of the Western states that didn’t used to
have groundwater laws are making groundwater laws. Quality is
becoming more and more of an issue. There’s a lot of effort to
maintain the quality of water, making sure we can preserve the
quality of lakes and bays and water bodies.<br>
<br>
Some of these actions are actually happening, but one thing on my
wish list, I would love to see people thinking about how development
today is impacting our water footprint of the future. You can
rethink the not-very-efficient system we have and start building for
the future, rather than doing the same thing over and over and
complaining about the results.<br>
- -<br>
Earther: It sounds like our water system is incredibly inefficient
and wasteful. But even if we tighten up the system, make sure we’re
using everything and really reusing water as much as possible, can
the West as a region support the amount of pressure we put on it,
once you add in climate change? Is that something you think about?<br>
<br>
Ajami: Yes, I do think about that.<br>
<br>
Earther: Sorry, grim thoughts are my specialty.<br>
<br>
Ajami: No, it’s a great question. Eventually, we’ll either have to
adapt, or we’ll break. If you talk about drought, drought is our new
normal. It’s not a drought anymore. We have to shift that mindset
and say, drought is a normal thing, it’s our reality. If we have a
wet year, we have to think about how we can protect and cache as
much water as we can, store as much water as we can to help our
system recover.<br>
<br>
The West can survive if it shifts its mindset, changes the way we
manage water, changes the way we approach drought, changes wildfire
management and flood season, changes how we manage between the
environment and built systems, how much we charge for water. If we
really can embrace all these things in a systematic way, we might be
able to survive. If we continue on in treating groundwater as an
endless system we can just tap into and use, arguing over “oh should
we monitor or not monitor, people really want to have freedom of
choice”—that’s never going to survive. We’re never going to survive.
A bunch of people are going to keep using and abusing the system.<br>
We have a path in front of us and we know the things we need to fix.
If we don’t, I don’t know if we can survive.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://gizmodo.com/adapt-or-we-ll-break-a-water-expert-lays-out-the-wes-1847376800">https://gizmodo.com/adapt-or-we-ll-break-a-water-expert-lays-out-the-wes-1847376800</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[video talk of rapid changes]<br>
<b>The Arctic, Maine and the First Abrupt Climate Change Event in
the Modern Era</b><br>
Mar 24, 2021<br>
Blue Hill Heritage Trust BHHT<br>
In recent decades human activity has become the major driver of
climate change. The Arctic has thus far experienced the greatest
change and the impact has spread throughout the Northern Hemisphere
resulting in a fast transition to a new climate state and
significant climate instability. The impacts of climate change are
one of the greatest security threats of this century. Maine is and
will continue to experience climate change, but with good planning
Maine could be well placed to both deal with and positively build
upon change. Paul Andrew Mayewski, Director and Professor of the
Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, is an
internationally acclaimed glaciologist, climate scientist and polar
explorer. He has led over 60 expeditions to the remotest regions of
the planet and made significant contributions to climate science
that are documented in 500 scientific publications, two popular
books and hundreds of major media appearances.<br>
<br>
This is a recording from a live Friends from the Field Webinar that
was presented on March 18th, 2021.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTYSJ9B6Pm8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTYSJ9B6Pm8</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[hot temps]<br>
<b>Extreme Heat Waves in a Warming World Don’t Just Break Records –
They Shatter Them</b><br>
By Scott Denning - -27 July 2021<br>
Scientists have warned for over 50 years about increases in extreme
events arising from subtle changes in average climate, but many
people have been shocked by the ferocity of recent weather
disasters. We need to understand two things about climate change’s
role in extreme weather like this: First, humans have pumped so much
carbon dioxide and other planet-warming greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere that what’s “normal” has shifted. Second, not every
extreme weather event is connected to global warming.<br>
<br>
Summer isn’t even half over, and we’ve seen heat waves in the
Pacific Northwest and Canada with temperatures that would be hot for
Death Valley, enormous fires that have sent smoke across North
America, and lethal floods of biblical proportions in Germany and
China. Scientists have warned for over 50 years about increases in
extreme events arising from subtle changes in average climate, but
many people have been shocked by the ferocity of recent weather
disasters.<br>
<br>
A couple of things are important to understand about climate
change’s role in extreme weather like this.<br>
<br>
First, humans have pumped so much carbon dioxide and other
planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that what’s
“normal” has shifted. A new study, published July 26, 2021, for
example, shows how record-shattering, long-lasting heat waves –
those that break records by a wide margin – are growing increasingly
likely, and that the rate of global warming is connected with the
increasing chances of these heat extremes.<br>
<br>
Second, not every extreme weather event is connected to global
warming.<br>
<br>
Shifting the Bell Curve<br>
Like so many things, temperature statistics follow a bell curve –
mathematicians call these “normal distributions.” The most frequent
and likely temperatures are near the average, and values farther
from the average quickly become much less likely.<br>
<br>
All else being equal, a little bit of warming shifts the bell to the
right – toward higher temperatures [watch on YouTube]. Even a shift
of just a few degrees makes the really unlikely temperatures in the
extreme “tail” of the bell happen dramatically more often.<br>
<br>
The stream of broken temperature records in the North American West
lately is a great example. Portland hit 116 degrees – 9 degrees
above its record before the heat wave. That would be an extreme at
the end of the tail. One study determined the heat wave would have
been “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change.
Extreme heat waves that were once ridiculously improbable are on
their way to becoming more commonplace, and unimaginable events are
becoming possible.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them">https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>[The news archive - looking back]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming
July 29, 2008</b></font><br>
<br>
MSNBC's Keith Olbermann covers "...the headlines breaking in the
administration‘s 50 running scandals—Bushed.<br>
<br>
"Number three: Blood for oil-gate. Remember when the people who
said the Iraq war was designed to benefit the oil industry? The
Republicans responded by calling those people 'tinfoil hat'
conspiracy theorists. And then the Republicans started saying we
have to stay in Iraq because otherwise al Qaeda might get the oil
and raise the price of gas.<br>
<br>
"Well, the pretext is officially at an end! Richard Perle, one of
the architects of the invasion of Iraq is, according to the
Murdoch Street Journal, trying to invest in an oil drilling deal
with the Kurds of Iraq even though the Bush administration is on
record opposing any oil deals with the Kurds until the Iraq
government straightens out which group owns what oil fields in
Iraq."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78ro5f7x4cM">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78ro5f7x4cM</a></p>
<p><br>
</p>
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
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