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<p><font size="+2"><i><b>September 9, 2021</b></i></font></p>
[Of course]<br>
<b>Climate change: Fossil fuels must stay underground, scientists
say</b><br>
By Victoria Gill Sept 9, 2021<br>
Science correspondent, BBC News<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58494391">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58494391</a><br>
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<p><br>
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[Fires move into towns "Maybe this is the start of the end"]<br>
<b>Greece’s Summer of Fire and Anger</b><br>
Sep 4, 2021<br>
VICE News<br>
After a week of wildfires, VICE World News travelled to the island
of Evia, Greece to meet local villagers that defied evacuation
orders. With insufficient forces on the ground, volunteer
firefighters took matters into their own hands and fought the fires
themselves. They are angry at the mismanagement of the country’s
fire services, a force that has long been underfunded and ill
prepared to tackle the onslaught of the climate crisis.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2igfZB3YFU8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2igfZB3YFU8</a>
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[keep it down underground]<br>
<b>Climate change: Fossil fuels must stay underground, scientists
say</b><br>
By Victoria Gill - - Science correspondent, BBC News<br>
Sept 8, 2021<br>
Almost 60% of oil and gas reserves and 90% of coal must remain in
the ground to keep global warming below 1.5C, scientists say.<br>
<br>
The forecast is based on close analysis of global energy supply and
demand.<br>
<br>
It is a "bleak" but realistic assessment of "what the science tells
us is needed", the researchers say.<br>
<br>
And they have "painted a scenario of the future" that leaves much
less room for fossil fuels to be extracted than previously
estimated.<br>
<br>
'Bouncing back'<br>
<br>
Globally, the researchers calculated, production of fossil fuels
needed to have peaked in 2020 and be on a steady decline of 3% every
year until 2050.<br>
<br>
"Through the Covid pandemic, we have seen a large decline in
production - but that is bouncing back," UCL associate professor of
energy systems Dr Steve Pye told BBC News.<br>
<br>
The research focuses on how much energy is required and what the
limit must be on carbon emissions.<br>
<br>
Dr James Price, also at UCL, said: "We say to our model, 'Meet all
those demands from now until 2100 without emitting too much carbon
dioxide.'<br>
<br>
"The result we get is a rapid reduction in fossil fuels - and a
large amount of fossils fuels [left in the ground] - simply because
the carbon budget is so tight."<br>
<br>
The study, in the journal Nature, also found the decline in oil and
gas production required globally by 2050 - to stick to that tight
carbon budget - means many regions face peak production now or
during the next decade.<br>
<br>
Many fossil-fuel extraction projects already planned or in operation
are likely to hurt the world's chances of meeting internationally
agreed target limits on global warming set out by the 2015 Paris
Agreement.<br>
<br>
And this "bleak picture", the scientists say, "is very probably an
underestimate of what is required".<br>
<br>
The carbon budget determined by the modelling would give the world a
50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.<br>
<br>
But the study says: "That does not consider uncertainties around,
for example, climate-system feedbacks<br>
<br>
"So to ensure more certainty of stabilising at this temperature,
[even] more carbon needs to stay in the ground."<br>
<br>
'Stark numbers'<br>
The researchers highlight bold national policies to entirely phase
out fossil-fuel extraction, including an alliance devised by Costa
Rica and Denmark, set to be launched at the crucial United Nations
Climate Change Conference, in Glasgow, this year, asking states to
stop issuing fossil-fuel exploration permits.<br>
<br>
And the scientists say they hope the "stark numbers" will inspire
the political will to make swift and urgent change to move away from
a reliance on fossil fuels.<br>
<br>
"The physics doesn't care about the political will," Dr Price said.<br>
<br>
"We know technically how to do this, it is just about actually doing
it."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58494391">https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58494391</a><br>
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[VICE News offers a strong indictment of the industry]<br>
<b>The Fossil Fuel Industry’s Dirty Secret</b><br>
Sep 7, 2021<br>
VICE News<br>
Fossil fuel companies knew about climate change decades ago. But
instead of doing something about it, they spent millions to confuse
the public and seed doubt. VICE World News explores their seedy
tactics. <br>
This is the fossil fuel industry’s system error. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvbm8xEgQ9s">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvbm8xEgQ9s</a><br>
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[Job hunting in this time of change] <br>
<b>No point in anything else’: Gen Z members flock to climate
careers</b><br>
Colleges offer support as young people aim to devote their lives to
battling the crisis<br>
Angela Lashbrook<br>
6 Sep 2021<br>
- -<br>
“I cannot imagine a career that isn’t connected to even just being a
small part of a solution,” says Mimi Ausland, 25, the founder of
Free the Ocean, a company that aims to leverage small actions to
remove plastic from the ocean.....<br>
<br>
Young people are finding their way to these careers, though, with or
without the federal government’s support. Brooke Hoese, a
24-year-old undergraduate in Texas pursuing a career in restoration
ecology, is taking an interdisciplinary approach. They spent the
summer working on a farm that practices regenerative agriculture, a
method to restore soil biodiversity, to contribute toward an
integrative studies degree involving ecology, literature, and
philosophy.<br>
<br>
“My goal is to use the lens of literature and philosophy to study
and hopefully help repair humans’ relationship to our environments,”
they say.<br>
<br>
College campuses across the country are now finding new ways to help
students like Hoese integrate climate studies across various
disciplines. The University of Southern California in Los Angeles,
for example, launched the Sustainability Across the Curriculum
program earlier this year to teach the college’s 20,000
undergraduate students how their majors intersect with
sustainability and the environment.<br>
<br>
I think I’m in the last generation who may be able to do anything
about climate change<br>
Rachel Larrivee, sustainability consultant<br>
<br>
A 2020 USC survey found that 64% of undergraduate students are “very
interested” in on-campus sustainability, while 27% are “interested”.
They’re also practicing what they preach: 33% of survey respondents
say they participate in sustainability activities “daily” and 27%
report weekly sustainability practices.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/06/gen-z-climate-change-careers-jobs">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/06/gen-z-climate-change-careers-jobs</a><br>
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<br>
[NYT Opinion]<br>
SPENCER BOKAT-LINDELL<br>
<b>Climate Disaster Is the New Normal. Can We Save Ourselves?</b><br>
Sept. 7, 2021<br>
How to summarize the summer of 2021? I might choose a statistic:
Nearly one-third of Americans live in a county that was hit by a
weather disaster in the past three months, up from just about
one-tenth during the same period five years ago, according to The
Washington Post.<br>
<br>
Scientists long ago predicted that climate change would cause heat
waves, floods and storms to grow more frequent and more intense, and
the relationship has become much clearer in recent years. But “these
events tell us we’re not prepared,” Alice Hill, who oversaw planning
for climate risks on the National Security Council during the Obama
administration, told The Times. “We have built our cities, our
communities, to a climate that no longer exists.”<br>
<br>
What does the United States need to do to prepare for a hotter
future, and what are the limits of adaptation? Here’s what people
are saying.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b> Mitigate, adapt or suffer</b><br>
Fourteen years ago, a Harvard climate and energy expert, John
Holdren, coined a kind of axiom for the three choices climate change
posed for humanity: Mitigation — the elimination of greenhouse gas
emissions — adaptation and suffering. “We’re going to do some of
each,” he said. “The question is what the mix is going to be.”<br>
<br>
For years, the policy conversation has rightfully been dominated by
the first part of the equation, because, as he explained, “the more
mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less
suffering there will be.”<br>
<br>
But nations delayed curbing their emissions for so long that global
warming is now guaranteed to intensify in the next three decades.
And that means that mitigation alone, while still as necessary as
ever, is no longer sufficient to prevent suffering: As devastating
as recent extreme weather events have been, scientists say the next
30 years will bring even more, hotter heat waves, longer and more
intense droughts, and more episodes of catastrophic flooding.<br>
<br>
In its 2018 National Climate Assessment, the federal government
released a sweeping report of all the ways the United States would
need to adapt. Here are just four, courtesy of The Times’s Brad
Plumer:<br>
<blockquote> <b>Rethink how we farm: </b>Intensifying drought and
extreme heat jeopardizes both the yields of crops and the workers
who harvest them. Farmers may have to use more precise irrigation
techniques to conserve water, relocate production and invest in
climate-controlled buildings.<br>
<br>
<b> Build for the future, </b>not the past: The nation’s
deteriorating infrastructure — its roads, sewer systems, public
transportation, power plants and transmission lines — was built
with historical weather conditions in mind, so it can’t just be
repaired; it also has to be rebuilt or retrofitted for the weather
of the future.<br>
<br>
<b>Enlist nature to help: </b>Restoring degraded wetlands and
expanding green space can protect cities and coasts from flooding,
while planting more trees can reduce urban temperatures and
protect people from deadly heat waves.<br>
<br>
<b>Expect the unexpected: </b>Earth hasn’t warmed this quickly in
tens of millions of years, long before humans even existed.
Changes this rapid are likely to bring unpredictable dangers, and
the more the world warms, the greater the risk of such surprises,
some of which may be irreversible and self-reinforcing.<br>
</blockquote>
At the moment, however, there is no national plan for climate
adaptation, just as there is no national plan for mitigation. Every
year, the federal government spends about $46 billion on recovery
from disasters — about seven times what it spends on resilience, as
David G. Victor, Sadie Frank and Eric Gesick note in The Times. In
many cases, recovery money is spent in ways that increase the risks
and costs of climate change by inviting people to build and move
into harm’s way.<br>
<br>
“When communities are flattened by nature, the nation helps pay for
rebuilding — often rebuilding the same infrastructure in the same
place, a target for the next disaster,” they write. “Redirecting
federal money toward resilience rather than simply rebuilding after
disasters will be hard. But the longer we wait, the harder it will
become as the costs of climate change mount.”...<br>
<br>
‘The truth is that you can’t protect everything’<br>
The 2018 National Climate Assessment mentioned a fifth major
strategy the United States will need to adapt to climate change: Get
out of the way. In some parts of the country, particularly along
coastlines, many areas will become too expensive or impractical to
inhabit; some already have.<br>
<br>
“We need to decide where it is in our national interest to be
spending federal money, and equally important, where that coastal
protection has the best chance of providing meaningful, longer-term
protection,” Robert S. Young writes in The Times. “In the many
places we cannot protect, we must seriously discuss how we can take
measured, gradual steps to move people and homes away from the
hazards.”<br>
<br>
But the United States has no clear national plan for climate
migration either, as Alexandra Tempus explains in The Times. She
notes that some 1.7 million disaster-related displacements occurred
in 2020 alone, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring
Center, but the process is entirely reactive and ad hoc, with
homeowners routinely left to wait years before obtaining buyouts.<br>
<br>
“Real change — like relocating entire neighborhoods and communities
out of harm’s way — would be far better handled not in times of
crisis, when the displaced must weigh complex decisions in the midst
of chaos and loss, but before a crisis hits,” she writes.<br>
<br>
But more proactive migration will prove difficult in the United
States, where government is especially loath to infringe on personal
property rights. Consider, by comparison, the Netherlands: There,
where much of the land lies below sea level, government water boards
have the ultimate authority over land use and there is no national
flood insurance program because, the Dutch argue, the government’s
job is to protect people, not homeownership, from floods.<br>
<br>
“If they determine an area is needed for flood protection, its
residents must move,” The Times reports. “It’s a different story in
the United States.”<br>
<br>
<b>The limits of adaptation</b><br>
Just as humanity’s failure to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions has
made a necessity of adaptation, so too, if that failure continues,
will it make a necessity of suffering. “There are limits to how much
the country, and the world, can adapt,” The Times’s Christopher
Flavelle, Anne Barnard, Brad Plumer and Michael Kimmelman write.
“And if nations don’t do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions that
are driving climate change, they may soon run up against the outer
edges of resilience.”<br>
<br>
Some of those edges will be found in the world’s food and water
systems. At 1.5 degrees of warming, nearly one billion people
worldwide could swelter in more frequent life-threatening heat
waves, and hundreds of millions more would struggle for water
because of severe droughts. At 2 degrees of warming, coral reefs
will all but cease to exist, causing irreversible loss for many
marine ecosystems and jeopardizing the ocean food supply.<br>
<br>
On land, farmers can adapt to an extent, but the 2018 National
Climate Assessment report emphasized that “these approaches have
limits under severe climate change impacts.” Yields for such crops
as maize, rice and wheat will be smaller at 2 degrees of warming
than at 1.5 degrees, according to NASA, especially in sub-Saharan
Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America, and 7 percent
to 10 percent of rangeland livestock will be lost. Even now, at just
1.2 degrees of warming, some farmers in drought-ridden California
have found it more lucrative to sell off water rights than to grow
food.<br>
<br>
<b>Even successful adaptation projects may create their own climate
threats:</b><br>
<br>
In Louisiana, the vast system of levees and flood walls that has
been erected to manage the Mississippi — and that helped keep New
Orleans relatively dry during Hurricane Ida — is also causing the
southern part of the state to disintegrate, as Elizabeth Kolbert has
written.<br>
<br>
As extreme heat intensifies, energy-guzzling air-conditioning is
fast becoming necessary in places where it wasn’t, which in turn
threatens to accelerate global warming.<br>
<br>
Such prospects are why, as Young writes, mitigation remains the
first line of defense, even if it has already been breached: “We can
build all the sea walls, dunes, beaches and marshes we want, but the
problem long-term is not what we put on the ground. It is what we
put in the air.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/climate-change-disaster-adaptation.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/opinion/climate-change-disaster-adaptation.html</a><br>
<br>
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<br>
[The news archive - looking back]<br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming
September 9, 2005</b></font><br>
<br>
September 9, 2005: At the National Sierra Club Convention in San
Francisco, Al Gore declares:<br>
<blockquote> "There are scientific warnings now of another onrushing
catastrophe. We were warned of an imminent attack by Al Qaeda; we
didn't respond. We were warned the levees would break in New
Orleans; we didn't respond. Now, the scientific community is
warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get
stronger because of global warming. A scientist at MIT has
published a study well before this tragedy showing that since the
1970s, hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the Pacific have
increased in duration, and in intensity, by about 50%. The
newscasters told us after Hurricane Katrina went over the southern
tip of Florida that there was a particular danger for the Gulf
Coast of the hurricanes becoming much stronger because it was
passing over unusually warm waters in the gulf. The waters in the
gulf have been unusually warm. The oceans generally have been
getting warmer. And the pattern is exactly consistent with what
scientists have predicted for twenty years. Two thousand
scientists, in a hundred countries, engaged in the most elaborate,
well organized scientific collaboration in the history of
humankind, have produced long-since a consensus that we will face
a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare
ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming.
It is important to learn the lessons of what happens when
scientific evidence and clear authoritative warnings are ignored
in order to induce our leaders not to do it again and not to
ignore the scientists again and not to leave us unprotected in the
face of those threats that are facing us right now."<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://web.archive.org/web/20050924210135/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0912-32.htm">http://web.archive.org/web/20050924210135/http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0912-32.htm</a><br>
<br>
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