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<font size="+2"><i><b>September 27, 2021</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[do the math]</i><br>
<b>Children set for more climate disasters than their grandparents,
research shows</b><br>
Climate crisis brings stark intergenerational injustice but rapid
emission cuts can limit damage<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/children-set-for-more-climate-disasters-than-their-grandparents-research-shows">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/children-set-for-more-climate-disasters-than-their-grandparents-research-shows</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[CNBC ]</i><br>
<b>Climate psychologist says neither gloom-and-doom nor extreme
solution-obsessed optimism is the best way to discuss climate
change productively</b><br>
SEP 26 2021<br>
Catherine Clifford<br>
-- Communicating about climate change effectively is critical to get
people to engage with it productively, according to climate
psychologist Renée Lertzman.<br>
-- First, there has to be an honest acknowledgement that we can not
solve climate change alone. The narrative has to be reframed from
one of “me” to one of “we.”<br>
-- Second, we have to have compassion for feeling sadness, anger and
anxiety about what is happening to the planet while also focusing on
solutions.<br>
Communicating about climate change effectively is critical to get
people to engage with it productively, according to climate
psychologist Renée Lertzman. And right now, communications about
climate change are not helping.<br>
<br>
<b>People are scared.</b><br>
Almost three in four people (72%) worldwide are worried that global
climate change will harm them personally at some point in their
lifetime, according to survey data from the nonpartisan Pew Research
Center.<br>
<br>
Almost half of young people (45%) say their feelings about climate
change negatively impact their daily lives, while 77% say the future
is frightening with regard to climate change, according to a survey
of 10,000 young people across 10 countries released this month by
academics.<br>
<br>
That fear needs to be acknowledged and worked through individually
in the companies we work for, in local communities, in government
and in organizations, says Lertzman. Only after that can we
productively discuss how to prepare, adapt and fight.<br>
<br>
The following are excerpts of Lertzman’s comments in a video
interview with CNBC. They have been edited for brevity and
clarity...<br>
- - <br>
<b>Be authentic</b><br>
It’s really important that we don’t try to be “hope police” on
ourselves, forcing ourselves to feel more hopeful or more upbeat or
positive.<br>
<br>
And that’s a trend that I find really concerning and troubling
because, if you look at just the psychological lens, it’s not how it
works. We don’t force ourselves to suddenly feel and behave in
certain ways.<br>
<br>
A solution-ier focuses exclusively on solutions and has no tolerance
and no space for any kind of expression of feelings or uncertainty
or ambivalence. It’s almost a zealous focus on the solutions. And it
can really shut people down. And it can really alienate a lot of
people who are not there yet. They still are processing and asking
questions like, “What does this mean for us? Why are we in this
situation in the first plate?”<br>
<br>
The solution-ier mode is that you have to just solve, solve, solve.
And, frankly, that problem-solution binary isn’t totally appropriate
for the situation we’re in. This is a state of being that is going
to be continuing for the unforeseeable future.<br>
<br>
The doom-and-gloom-versus-hope dichotomy or binary is false. And
it’s one that we really need as communicators, journalists, the
media needs to be actively dismantling.<br>
<br>
In actuality, the path forward is a middle path. And that middle
path is one of authenticity.<br>
<br>
It’s really about authentic experience and authentic engagement with
this crisis. There is enormous hopefulness and enormous positivity
and deep inspiration and power with recognizing and facing directly
the scale and the impact and the loss....<br>
- -<br>
The new model is one that is really exciting to me and is more human
centered. It’s more authentic. It is about coming together. And
looking at these issues together. And talking about what to do about
this. It’s more inclusive. People feel that they’re really part of
this conversation.<br>
<br>
There have to be more people at different levels in the
organization, in different parts of the organization, who are given
the platform and the ability to initiate, to mobilize, to move
things forward. It doesn’t only live at the C-Suite.<br>
<br>
And ideally, if it’s done well, each person, no matter what part of
the company you’re in, feels that they have a stake in this climate
change response. Nobody is exempting themselves because they don’t
know enough about climate. An effective response is one where
everyone has something to add here and is a part of the response. It
means creating an atmosphere where everyone all has a vital role.<br>
<br>
Because, what really drives change is when people feel invited, they
feel heard, understood, included.<br>
<br>
One example of how to start this is hosting circles. I train people
to facilitate climate circles or conversations, which are small
groups where people meet over a duration of time, and they just
simply come together and talk about what they’re feeling and
thinking about the issues.<br>
<br>
And before long, it becomes about action. It really does.<br>
<br>
People don’t stay that long in the feeling, but you need to at least
have the space to go there before getting into action planning. And
if we jump right into actions and bypass discussing how people feel,
then we shortchange and we short circuit the the potential to really
do some amazing work.<br>
<br>
A resource for those interested in further reading: Lertzman
recommends Project Inside Out, an online resource she was
commissioned to put together by the climate organization, the KR
Foundation, based in Denmark. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/26/how-to-discuss-climate-change-productively.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/26/how-to-discuss-climate-change-productively.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<i>[ From Australia - video explanation ]</i><br>
<b>Scenarios, carbon budgets and temperature projections in the new
IPCC WG1 AR6 report</b><br>
Aug 10, 2021<br>
Climate & Energy College<br>
A/Prof Malte Meinshausen and Zebedee Nicholls, 10 August 2021.<br>
<br>
The Physical Science (Working Group 1) contribution to the IPCC’s
Sixth Assessment Report was released on the 10th August 2021. This
first of two seminars will provide an overview of some key results
in the IPCC report, presented by two authors that have been closely
involved in this IPCC cycle. The seminar will cover the new
scenarios that underpin future projections, historical warming
updates, the question around how these scenarios compare to 1.5C
warming, a comparison of when peak warming levels could be reached
under the low mitigation scenarios, the impact of COVID, techniques
to provide assessed future temperature projections based on multiple
lines of evidence, the usefulness of providing projections against
warming levels, remaining carbon budgets in comparison to the SR.5
report, as well as the importance of CO2 versus other gases, both in
terms of past and future warming as well as in terms of so-called
metrics that compare unit emissions of different GHGs. The second
seminar (24th August) will provide more technical detail on two key
aspects, i.e. assessed future warming levels and remaining carbon
budgets.<br>
<br>
To download a copy of the seminar slides, please visit the College
Website:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/seminar/scenarios-carbon-budgets-and-temperature-projections-new-ipcc-wg1-ar6-report">https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/seminar/scenarios-carbon-budgets-and-temperature-projections-new-ipcc-wg1-ar6-report</a><br>
or download directly here:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/files/site1/seminar_documents/ar6-wg1-seminar-1-slides-10AUG_ZN-MM.pdf">https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/files/site1/seminar_documents/ar6-wg1-seminar-1-slides-10AUG_ZN-MM.pdf</a><br>
<br>
This seminar is part of a series being hosted by the Climate and
Energy College in 2021 that is supported by the Strategic
Partnership for Implementation of the Paris Agreement.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRzV75SZLlY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRzV75SZLlY</a><i><br>
</i>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i><i>[ sometimes a powerful posting attracts denialist comments -
the imprimatur of its enemies validates the </i></i><i><i>message]
</i></i><br>
<b>I</b><b>nside the mind of a climate change scientist | Corinne Le
Quéré | TEDxWarwick</b><br>
Apr 19, 2018<br>
TEDx Talks<br>
In a lighthearted but highly relevant talk, Corinne discusses the
ever-pressing issue of climate change - from the perspective of a
climate scientist who is no longer trying to convince you that the
threat is real. Professor Corinne Le Quéré FRS is the Director of
the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and a Professor of
Climate Change Science and Policy at the University of East Anglia.
In 2017, she chaired the International Panel of the ‘Make the Planet
Great Again’ campaign led by French President Emmanuel Macron, which
awarded grants to outstanding climate scientists around the world.
Le Quéré also initiates and directs the yearly update of the Global
Carbon Budget, a publication by the Global Carbon Project which aims
to inform readers about the latest developments in global and
national carbon cycle changes. A member of the UK Committee on
Climate Change and author of the 3rd, 4th and 5th Assessments of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Corinne has contributed
to advances in the quantification of the causes and trends of
atmospheric carbon dioxide as well as the use and development of
carbon cycle models in carbon budgets. This talk was given at a TEDx
event using the TED conference format but independently organized by
a local community. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6f4Q_ReMxA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6f4Q_ReMxA</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ risk on the top of the world ]</i> <br>
<b>Warming in the Himalayas is pushing the Indian Subcontinent
towards water insecurity</b><br>
As climate change will impact water availability in the Indus, Ganga
and Brahmaputra, megacities like Delhi and Lahore will face the
brunt, finds a study.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://scroll.in/article/999972/warming-in-the-himalayas-is-pushing-the-indian-subcontinent-towards-water-insecurity">https://scroll.in/article/999972/warming-in-the-himalayas-is-pushing-the-indian-subcontinent-towards-water-insecurity</a>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ study source]</i><br>
<b>Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya-Karakoram</b><br>
20 Aug 2021<br>
Vol 373, Issue 6557<br>
Abstract<br>
Understanding the response of Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) rivers to
climate change is crucial for ~1 billion people who partly depend on
these water resources. Policy-makers tasked with sustainable water
resources management require an assessment of the rivers’ current
status and potential future changes. We show that glacier and snow
melt are important components of HK rivers, with greater
hydrological importance for the Indus basin than for the Ganges and
Brahmaputra basins. Total river runoff, glacier melt, and
seasonality of flow are projected to increase until the 2050s, with
some exceptions and large uncertainties. Critical knowledge gaps
severely affect modeled contributions of different runoff
components, future runoff volumes, and seasonality. Therefore,
comprehensive field observation–based and remote sensing–based
methods and models are needed.<br>
DOI: 10.1126/science.abf3668<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abf3668">https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abf3668</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[Well, this is a long way off]</i><br>
<b>By 2500, Earth Will Be Alien to Humans if We Don't Act Now,
Scientists Warn</b><br>
CHRISTOPHER LYON ET AL.,- - THE CONVERSATION - - 27 SEPTEMBER 2021<br>
There are many reports based on scientific research that talk about
the long-term impacts of climate change – such as rising levels of
greenhouse gases, temperatures and sea levels – by the year 2100.
The Paris Agreement, for example, requires us to limit warming to
under 2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of
the century...<br>
- -<br>
While some climate projections do look past 2100, these longer-term
projections aren't being factored into mainstream climate adaptation
and environmental decision-making today. This is surprising because
people born now will only be in their 70s by 2100. What will the
world look like for their children and grandchildren?<br>
<br>
To grasp, plan for and communicate the full spatial and temporal
scope of climate impacts under any scenario, even those meeting the
Paris Agreement, researchers and policymakers must look well beyond
the 2100 horizon...<br>
- -<br>
<b>After 2100</b><br>
In 2100, will the climate stop warming? If not, what does this mean
for humans now and in the future? In our recent open-access article
in Global Change Biology, we begin to answer these questions.<br>
<br>
We ran global climate model projections based on Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP), which are "time-dependent projections
of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations."<br>
<br>
Our projections modelled low (RCP6.0), medium (RCP4.5) and high
mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6, which corresponds to the "well-below 2
degrees Celsius" Paris Agreement goal) up to the year 2500.<br>
<br>
We also modelled vegetation distribution, heat stress and growing
conditions for our current major crop plants, to get a sense of the
kind of environmental challenges today's children and their
descendants might have to adapt to from the 22nd century onward...<br>
- -<br>
<b>An alien future?</b><br>
Between 1500 and today, we have witnessed colonization and the
Industrial Revolution, the birth of modern states, identities and
institutions, the mass combustion of fossil fuels and the associated
rise in global temperatures.<br>
<br>
If we fail to halt climate warming, the next 500 years and beyond
will change the Earth in ways that challenge our ability to maintain
many essentials for survival – particularly in the historically and
geographically rooted cultures that give us meaning and identity.<br>
<br>
The Earth of our high-end projections is alien to humans. The choice
we face is to urgently reduce emissions, while continuing to adapt
to the warming we cannot escape as a result of emissions up to now,
or begin to consider life on an Earth very different to this one.
The Conversation<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sciencealert.com/by-2500-earth-will-be-alien-to-humans-if-we-don-t-act-now-scientists-warn">https://www.sciencealert.com/by-2500-earth-will-be-alien-to-humans-if-we-don-t-act-now-scientists-warn</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back]</i><br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming
September 27, 1988</b></font><br>
September 27, 1988: In a speech to the Royal Society in London,<br>
Margaret Thatcher addresses the environmental threats of global<br>
warming, the ozone layer and acid rain, noting the risk of rising
sea<br>
levels to the Maldives.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107346">http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107346</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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