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<font size="+2"><i><b>December 4, 2021</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ just a measurement of change ]</i><br>
<b>The ins and outs of understanding what’s in a degree</b><br>
A degree more here and a degree more there, and pretty soon you have
some serious increased warming.<br>
by SUEELLEN CAMPBELL<br>
DECEMBER 2, 2021<br>
Those paying attention to international climate negotiations are
familiar with the emphasis on degrees of global warming. <br>
<br>
The hoped-for or “aspirational” goal is to keep the average
temperature rise above pre-industrial times to 1.5º C; the
“official” goal is for no more than 2º C; 3º C is not out of the
question; and 4º C or 5º C or 6º C are plain terrifying.<br>
<br>
What do these numbers mean in practical terms? (Keep in mind that
each degree Celsius is 1.8 degrees F.)<br>
<br>
If you have time for just one quick piece, this is a good overview
from Lauren Sommer at NPR. It includes an especially understandable
chart about extreme heat waves. <i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1052198840/1-5-degrees-warming-climate-change">https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1052198840/1-5-degrees-warming-climate-change</a>?</i><br>
<br>
Given the latest pledges and analyses (as of the November 2021 COP26
meetings in Glasgow), where are we most likely to end up? It’s a
complicated picture made much more understandable by an excellent
and thorough account from Carbon Brief. <i>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/">https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/</a>?</i><br>
<br>
Carbon Brief also has a useful interactive site about the impacts of
1.5, 2, and more than 2º, though everything over 2 is combined into
one relatively sparse column. <br>
<br>
For a few informative maps, look at the 2021 IPCC report’s Summary
for Policy Makers. The section on future warming, which starts at
page 15, boils down to these two sentences: <br>
<br>
-- “Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct
relation to increasing global warming”; and <br>
<p>-- “Projected changes in extremes are larger in frequency and
intensity with every additional increment of global warming.”</p>
<p>NASA explains some of the reasons it’s hard to offer a simple
story matching temperatures with impacts here. <i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/">https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/</a> </i>
The opening graphic (from Climate Central) is an enlightening bell
curve of heating shifting to the hotter side. <i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/extreme-weather-toolkits/extreme-heat">https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/extreme-weather-toolkits/extreme-heat</a></i><br>
</p>
<p>With help from a special report published by IPCC in 2018,
“Global Warming of 1.5º C,” it is easy to find information about
the differences between 1.5 and 2º. Two especially good
explanations are from NASA and from science writer Bruce Lieberman
at Yale Climate Connections. The latter includes links to
additional resources. <i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/">https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/</a></i><i>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-will-happen-to-our-cities-and-beaches-at-3-degrees-of-warming-20210331-p57fhj.html">https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-will-happen-to-our-cities-and-beaches-at-3-degrees-of-warming-20210331-p57fhj.html</a>
<br>
</i></p>
<p>And what if the world warms by more than 2º C, as much as 3º?
There’s as yet very little information about the span between
these levels. But below are a couple of excellent accounts of what
a 3º rise will mean. <i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-will-happen-to-our-cities-and-beaches-at-3-degrees-of-warming-20210331-p57fhj.html">https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-will-happen-to-our-cities-and-beaches-at-3-degrees-of-warming-20210331-p57fhj.html</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-analysis/reports-and-publications/risks-australia-three-degrees-c-warmer-world">https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-analysis/reports-and-publications/risks-australia-three-degrees-c-warmer-world</a></i><br>
</p>
Sherryn Groch and Nick O’Malley of the Sidney Morning Herald offer a
vivid description of changes to expect in Australia, based on a
report from the Australian Academy of Science.<br>
<br>
And The Economist (where climate coverage has become quite strong)
provides an excellent and very thorough briefing, “Three degrees of
global warming is quite plausible and truly disastrous.” It’s not a
light read, but it’s very informative, well worth the time and the
small effort it takes to sign up for several free reads per month.
You can watch the 16-minute video that accompanies this story on
YouTube without having to sign in. <br>
<br>
Finally, for a readable, book-length exploration of likely impacts
from warming at every degree level up to six, read Mark Lynas’ 2020
Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency (an update of
his 2007 book). Here is a review by physicist and historian Spencer
Weart in Yale Climate Connections. <i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/mark-lynas-final-warning-on-climate-its-all-on-us-here-now/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/mark-lynas-final-warning-on-climate-its-all-on-us-here-now/</a></i><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/12/the-ins-and-outs-of-understanding-whats-in-a-degree/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/12/the-ins-and-outs-of-understanding-whats-in-a-degree/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ well-known, existing disease of the desert ] </i><br>
<b>Another Climate Change Threat: Valley Fever</b><br>
As California Heats Up, Infection May Spread<br>
TESS TOWNSEND - DEC 2, 2021<br>
Cough, fatigue, shortness of breath—is it COVID-19? The flu? In
certain hotter, drier regions like California’s Central Valley
(which includes Fresno and Bakersfield) and Arizona, it might be
valley fever, an infection caused by the Coccidioides fungus.<br>
<br>
The illness has gained greater attention as health authorities
record a growing number of cases. More than 18,000 diagnoses were
recorded in the United States in 2019, compared with about 2,800 in
2000, with fluctuation over the years, according to the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Valley fever is still a
serious health risk: About 1 in 10 patients experiences long-term or
severe effects, typically in their lungs. In relatively rare cases,
the disease can be fatal, killing 200 people per year on average,
according to the CDC.<br>
“Your individual daily risk is very low, you know—almost zero...<br>
- -<br>
The Coccidioides fungus grows in the dirt when it’s moist, then
becomes airborne with dust when conditions dry out. Its presence is
“patchy,” says Thompson—one section of dirt might contain it, while
another just five feet away doesn’t. So just because you’re in an
endemic region doesn’t mean the dirt surrounding you is full of
Coccidioides...<br>
- -<br>
A vaccine against valley fever may even be on the horizon, he says.
One is already in development for dogs.<br>
<br>
Until then, the best defense is awareness. People who spend time in
affected regions should be aware of valley fever in case they
develop symptoms, and health professionals should be aware of the
growing footprint of the Coccidioides fungus.<br>
<br>
“I think the best way for folks to think about it is to be an
advocate for their own health,” Gorris says.<br>
<br>
While Gorris was referring to self-advocacy in a medical setting,
you could also take her meaning more broadly. Valley fever, air
pollution, and even allergy season are all made worse by climate
change. You can advocate for your own health, as well as that of
your community and future generations, by advocating for abandoning
fossil fuels to cap global warming.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.altaonline.com/dispatches/a38413880/another-climate-change-threat-valley-fever/">https://www.altaonline.com/dispatches/a38413880/another-climate-change-threat-valley-fever/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Gail Tverberg is an bonafide acutarial ] </i><br>
<b>Is it possible that the world is approaching end times?</b><br>
by Gail Tverberg<br>
I frequently write that the world economy is, in physics terms, a
dissipative structure that is powered by energy. It can grow for a
time, but eventually it reaches limits of many kinds. Ultimately, it
can be expected to stop growing and collapse.<br>
<br>
It seems to me that the world economy is showing signs that it has
reached a turning point. Economic growth stopped in 2020 and is
having trouble restarting in 2021. Fossil fuel energy of all types
(oil, coal and natural gas) is in short supply, relative to the
world's huge population. Ultimately, this inadequate energy supply
can be expected to pull the world economy toward collapse.<br>
<br>
The world economy doesn't behave the way most people would expect.
Standard modeling approaches miss the point that economies require
adequate supplies of energy products of the right kinds, provided at
the right times of day and year, if they are to keep from
collapsing. Shortages are not necessarily marked by high prices;
prices that are too low for producers will bring down the energy
supply quickly. A collapse may occur due to inadequate demand; in
fact, such a scenario is described in Revelation 18.<br>
<br>
As strange as it may seem, we may be approaching what some of us
would think of as end times, if our economy collapses for lack of
cheap-to-produce energy supplies. In this post, I will try to
explain what is happening...<br>
- -<br>
<b>[1] In some ways, the self-organizing economy is like a child's
building toy that, with the use of human energy, can be built up
to higher and higher levels...</b><br>
<p><b>[2] Another way of thinking about the world economy is that it
is somewhat like a rocket that needs fuel. It also has waste
outputs. Both of these limit the growth of the world economy...</b></p>
<b>[3] Strangely enough, the major energy limit that the world
economy is hitting seems to be "energy prices that do not rise
high enough for producers." ...</b>
<blockquote>If energy supply is inadequate, businesses often find it
advantageous to substitute computers or other machines for some
work previously done by low paid workers. While these machines use
a little energy in their operation, they do not need food, housing
or transportation the way human workers do. With fewer actual
workers, demand for finished goods and services tends to fall,
pushing commodity prices, including those for fossil fuels, down.
This further adds to the low-price problem.<br>
<br>
It is the lack of jobs that pay well that tends to hold down
commodity prices below the prices producers require. Ultimately,
it is the lack of sufficient jobs that pay well that tends to
bring the whole economy down. Most researchers have missed this
important point.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>[4] In the period leading up to collapse, wages fail to rise with
the cost of required services. This leads to increasingly unhappy
workers. Healthcare costs and college costs are especially
problematic, because their costs have been rising faster than
costs in general...</b><br>
<p><b>[5] An increase in debt can temporarily be used to hide both
inadequate inexpensive-to-produce energy supply and inadequate
wages of workers, but we seem to be reaching limits using this
approach to hide energy problems...</b></p>
<p><b>[6] Nothing happens for a single reason in a self-organizing
economy. Lack of energy affects every part of the economy, from
jobs to finished output, almost simultaneously...</b></p>
<p><b>[7] Citizens cannot imagine a declining and eventually
collapsing economy. Businesses, governments and individual
citizens all demand "happily ever after futures."...</b></p>
<p><b>[8] It is easy to create models that predict growth will
continue forever, even if the physics of the situation says this
is not possible...</b></p>
<p><b>[9] As 2020 began, many sectors of the world economy were
squeezed simultaneously. With limited energy resources, large
parts of the economy needed to be cut back. The self-organizing
economy acted in a very strange way. Shutdowns supposedly aimed
at stopping COVID-19 from spreading acted very much like energy
rationing, without mentioning the world's energy problem...</b></p>
<b>[10] The world economy is increasingly acting like economies that
have collapsed in the past. In fact, there seems to be a
connection with some of the strange statements from the book of
Revelation...</b><br>
<blockquote>- -The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over
her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold,
silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and
scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every
kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble;13
cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense,
of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep;
horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.<br>
</blockquote>
The need for vaccine passports in some countries reminds a person of
Revelation 13:17, "they could not buy or sell unless they had the
mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name." In
fact, people in Sweden are getting microchip implants after its
latest COVID passport mandate.<br>
<br>
Some people believe that Revelation 12 describes the Antichrist;
that is, the polar opposite of Christ. Before the world comes to an
end, Revelation 12 seems to predict a great fight against this
Antichrist, which Christ wins. I could imagine Anthony Fauci being
the Antichrist.<br>
<br>
We are not used to living in a world where very little that is
published by the Mainstream Media makes sense. But when we live in a
time where no one wants to hear what is true, the system changes in
a bizarre way, so that a great deal that is published is false.<br>
<br>
It is disturbing to think that we may be living near the end of the
world economy, but there is an upside to this situation. We have had
the opportunity to live at a time with more conveniences than any
other civilization. We can appreciate the many conveniences we have.<br>
<br>
We also have the opportunity to decide how we want to live the rest
of our lives. We have been led for many years down the path of
believing that economic growth will last forever; all we need to do
is have faith in the government and our educational institutions. If
we figure out that this really isn't the path to follow, we can
change course now. If we want to choose a more spiritual approach,
this is a choice we can still make. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/12/03/is-it-possible-that-the-world-is-approaching-end-times/">https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/12/03/is-it-possible-that-the-world-is-approaching-end-times/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ What is so great about YouTube - above other social media -]</i><br>
<b>YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki on tech regulation and transparency</b><br>
Susan Wojcicki: "We are working to be more transparent, and we are
working to continue to give more visibility."
<blockquote><b>Wojcicki: </b>I think on transparency, we are
working to be more transparent, and we are working to continue to
give more visibility. I would say that for regulators, actually
seeing the algorithm itself, of course, would be a very complex
area, and I don’t think would achieve what most regulators want.
What would be most helpful is to talk about what are the end
metrics that they would like us to optimize for. YouTube, for
example, we just came out with a metric called Violative View
Rate, which is the number of views that are on our platform that
are violative of the policies that we’ve said that we have. And we
believe that that’s actually a really comprehensive way to
understand: Are we meeting our own goals in terms of removing
content that is violative of our policies? So basically, we share
that, we update that regularly. And right now, it’s about 19 or 20
views in every 10,000 that would be violative of our policies. And
so we’re going to continue to work to make sure that we pull down
that content, but that’s a way that we are working to be more
transparent.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.marketplace.org/2021/12/01/the-source-code-susan-wojcicki/">https://www.marketplace.org/2021/12/01/the-source-code-susan-wojcicki/</a><i><br>
</i>
<p><i> </i><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Check this from the recent past ]</i><br>
<b>These 11 Climate Science Deniers are Attending the COP26 Climate
Summit</b><br>
CFACT and the Heartland Institute are hosting an alternative side
event — but “these days, almost no-one cares,” says one climate
expert.<br>
By Rich Collett-Whiteon - Nov 3, 2021<br>
GLASGOW, SCOTLAND — A total 11 climate science deniers have secured
passes to the UN COP26 climate summit taking place in Glasgow,
Scotland, including Myron Ebell, the head of former US President
Donald Trump’s transition team at the Environmental Protection
Agency.<br>
<br>
The president of the notorious Heartland Institute, which recently
held a rival conference in Las Vegas ahead of the COP26 conference,
and the head of policy at the UK’s principal climate science denial
group are also among those who were given badges.<br>
<br>
The delegates have access to the official “Blue Zone” area of the
conference, where negotiations — which are restricted to government
delegations — and a variety of side-events are being held.<br>
<br>
Many of them are also speaking at an alternative two-day “Climate
Reality Forum”, live-streamed from an undisclosed location in the
city.<br>
<br>
The news has been met with anger from environmental groups who point
to the difficulty representatives of Indigenous communities and
low-income countries vulnerable to climate change have had in
gaining access to the summit...<br>
- -<br>
“The fact that climate deniers are allowed space at COP, while
Indigenous peoples are fighting to get inside speaks to the
performative functions of the COP,” said Jennifer K. Falcon from the
Indigenous Environmental Network. <br>
<br>
“The world is on fire, sea levels are rising, food and water
shortages are already hitting Black, Indigenous and frontline
communities of the global majority,” she added, “and climate deniers
are given direct access to world leaders to continue the status quo
of killing our planet.”<br>
<br>
Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological
Diversity, said: “Granting access to climate deniers adds insult to
injury when countless climate-vulnerable people have been refused
entry in the politics of vaccine apartheid.”<br>
<br>
The climate denial delegates are listed as attending COP26 on behalf
of the US-based Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and
the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), both of which have a
long history of rejecting mainstream climate science and have
previously taken funding from oil giant ExxonMobil.<br>
<br>
CFACT has called carbon dioxide a “harmless trace essential gas in
the atmosphere that humans exhale from their mouth”, while CEI
claims that climate models “inflate greenhouse gas emissions
scenarios” and boasts about defeating efforts to introduce climate
legislation in the US on its website.<br>
<br>
Myron Ebell, CEI’s director of energy and environment was selected
by Trump in 2016 to lead the former US president’s transition team
at the EPA, which the CEI says should not be allowed to regulate
greenhouse gas emissions.<br>
<br>
CEI’s delegation includes the president of the Heartland Institute,
James Taylor, and a correspondent for the conservative National
Review magazine, Kevin Williamson, who has been working on a CEI
project “examining the modern environmental movement, its culture,
and advocacy”.<br>
<br>
Also in attendance is CFACT’s communications director, Marc Morano,
who is no stranger to controversy at UN climate summits, having been
ejected from the 2016 talks in Marrakech for taking part in an
unauthorised demonstration during which he ripped up a copy of the
Paris Agreement.<br>
<br>
Morano is a former aide to US Republican senator James Inhofe, who
describes human-caused climate change as a “hoax”. And last week,
Morano was interviewed on UK radio station talkRADIO claiming global
elites are planning Covid-style “lockdowns” to tackle emissions.<br>
<br>
The accreditations for the two organisations, however, are
apparently overlapped, with two CFACT representatives — including
potential relatives of Morano, Elena and Jessica — attending under
CEI badges, while Travis Buck, CEI’s vice president of
communications, is listed under CFACT.<br>
<br>
CFACT’s delegation also includes Harry Wilkinson, head of policy at
Net Zero Watch, the new name for the Global Warming Policy Forum,
the campaign wing of the UK climate science denial charity
established by former Tory chancellor Nigel Lawson.<br>
<br>
Other CFACT delegates include its executive director Craig Rucker
and senior fellow Peter Murphy.<br>
<br>
CFACT and the Heartland Institute have been running an alternative
conference in Glasgow, alongside Dutch and German climate science
denial groups, CLINTEL and EIKE, the latter of which reportedly
works with the far-right Alternative for Germany party.<br>
<br>
Speakers at this event include British hereditary peer Christopher
Monckton, a longtime climate denier, and the German “anti-Greta”
Naomi Seibt, who spoke on Wednesday about the “Evil Motives of
Climate Socialism”. <br>
<br>
No details were given on how to attend the event in person, but a
live-stream was provided.<br>
<br>
Responding to the news, Richard Black, an honorary research fellow
at Imperial College London and author of a book on climate
“contrarianism” in the UK, said: “It’s not unusual to see
contrarians turning up at UN climate summits, in fact it’s pretty
routine. But what is noticeable is how these days, almost no-one
cares.”<br>
<br>
Black, a former BBC environment correspondent and veteran COP
attendee, said side events organised by groups like CEI would
previously have drawn in journalists and generated headlines. <br>
<br>
“Now, it really is a side-show — an irrelevance,” he said, “given
that pretty much everyone else is talking about how to tackle
climate change and the benefits of doing so, rather than whether
to.”<br>
<br>
Rucker told DeSmog: “The participation of organizations such as
CFACT which bring perspective grounded in individual and economic
freedom and national sovereignty to the UN climate process is today
more relevant than ever.”<br>
<br>
“We refer you to the fundamental principles underlying the UNFCCC
[the UN body in charge of climate summits] and the UN as a whole
which guarantee the right of free expression and participation,” he
added.<br>
<br>
CEI, the UK COP26 Unit and the UNFCCC have been contacted for
comment.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.desmog.com/2021/11/03/heartland-cfact-cei-gwpf-climate-science-deniers-are-attending-the-cop26-climate-summit/">https://www.desmog.com/2021/11/03/heartland-cfact-cei-gwpf-climate-science-deniers-are-attending-the-cop26-climate-summit/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back]</i><br>
<font size="+1"><b>On this day in the history of global warming
December 4, 2012</b></font><br>
December 4, 2012: <br>
Climate scientists Michael Mann, James Hansen and Katharine Hayhoe
discuss the risks of a warming planet at the Commonwealth Club in
San Francisco, California.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GlobalClimateChange50">http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GlobalClimateChange50</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://c-spanvideo.org/program/JamesHa">http://c-spanvideo.org/program/JamesHa</a><br>
<br>
<p>/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/</p>
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