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<p><font size="+2"><i><b>April 18, 2022</b></i></font><br>
</p>
<i>[ brief words from a mass media meteorologist ]</i><br>
<i> </i><b>Ginger Zee: "People are Feeling" Climate Change in their
Own Lives</b><br>
Apr 16, 2022<br>
greenmanbucket<br>
Ginger Zee is Chief Meteorologist of ABC News.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfa06c5BJTg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfa06c5BJTg</a><br>
<br>
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<i>[ From Dr. James Hansen ]</i><br>
<b>March Temperature Update & Butterfly Report</b><br>
15 April 2022<br>
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy<br>
March was notably warm (Fig. 1), more than 1.3°C warmer than the
average March in 1880-1920, despite continued La Nina cooling of the
Pacific. Because of the present planetary energy imbalance –
discussed in prior posts – we expect 2022 to be substantially warmer
than 2021. The imbalance is due to surging growth rates of GHGs
(greenhouse gases), solar irradiance rising from its recent minimum,
and perhaps the aerosol forcing becoming less negative, although the
latter remains speculative given the absence of measurements of the
global aerosol forcing...<br>
[ more ]
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://mailchi.mp/caa/march-temperature-update-butterfly-report?e=c4e20a3850">https://mailchi.mp/caa/march-temperature-update-butterfly-report?e=c4e20a3850</a><br>
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<i>[ "if you contribute to the problem, you should contribute to the
solution" - CBS TV ]</i><br>
<b>Suing over climate change: Taking fossil fuel companies to court</b><br>
Sunday-morning<br>
APRIL 17, 2022<br>
<i>- - <br>
</i>Correspondent Ben Tracy asked, "Can you raise taxes high enough
to cover these costs?"<br>
<br>
"It's like any big project; you gotta look under every rock,"
Tecklenburg replied.<br>
<br>
Underneath one of those rocks are the fossil fuel companies. Study
after study has shown the companies' carbon emissions from oil, coal
and gas are major contributors to climate change.<br>
<br>
Charleston is one of more than two dozen cities, counties and states
that are suing these companies (including ExxonMobil, Shell,
Chevron, BP and ConocoPhillips).<br>
- - <br>
Tong is suing ExxonMobil under the state's consumer protection laws.
He said internal company research done by Exxon and Mobil (which
used to be separate companies) shows they were aware of the dangers
of climate change since at least the 1980s.<br>
<br>
"There's a study from, I think, 1982 in which they produce a chart
that shows, as the levels of carbon dioxide rise, the temperature of
our atmosphere will rise," said Tong. "And that chart is almost
exactly right."<br>
<br>
And the suit also cites a 1988 internal draft memo from an Exxon
spokesperson advising the company "emphasize the uncertainty" of
climate science...<br>
- -<br>
So far, the industry has filed a series of motions, slowing down the
cases. <br>
<br>
Charleston, South Carolina is bracing for a long and uncertain legal
battle. Tracy asked Mayor John Tecklenburg, "If you're not
successful with this lawsuit, what does that mean for what you're
trying to do here?"<br>
<br>
"We're gonna find a way to fund the improvements that we need," he
replied.<br>
<br>
"But I bet you've heard the phrase, 'Hope is not a strategy'?"<br>
<br>
Tecklenburg laughed: "Hope springs eternal, right?"<br>
<br>
But in the meantime, the water keeps rising. <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-disinformation-suing-fossil-fuel-companies/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-disinformation-suing-fossil-fuel-companies/</a><br>
<br>
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<p><i>[ climate scientist shows emotions ]</i><br>
<b>‘It’s critical the message makes it to the mainstream’: Nasa
climate scientist speaks on his tearful protest</b><br>
Peter Kalmus was among a group of scientists who chained
themselves to a JPMorgan Chase building in Los Angeles in protest
of the bank’s financing of fossil fuels<br>
Ethan Freedman - Climate Reporter, New York April 17, 2022<br>
A Nasa scientist who went viral over his tearful protest on the
climate crisis has told The Independent that his activism comes
from a sense of desperation to “find something that actually has
an impact and moves the needle”.<br>
Peter Kalmus was among a group of scientists arrested last week...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/protest-nasa-scientist-rebellion-b2059788.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/protest-nasa-scientist-rebellion-b2059788.html</a><br>
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</p>
<i>[ Peter Sinclair ] </i><br>
<b>Ginger Zee: "People are Feeling" Climate Change in their Own
Lives</b><br>
Apr 16, 2022<br>
greenmanbucket<br>
Ginger Zee is Chief Meteorologist of ABC News.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfa06c5BJTg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfa06c5BJTg</a>
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<i>[ fire and rain are two parts of one disaster ] </i><br>
<b>Drenching Rains Pose Greater Threat to Fire-Damaged Areas in West</b><br>
Homeland Security News Wire<br>
15 April 2022<br>
Areas in the western U.S. scarred by wildfires now face even more
dangers: drenching rains. These rains inundate the burnt areas,
causing significant destruction, including debris flows, mudslides,
and flash floods, because the denuded landscape cannot easily
contain the drenching moisture.<br>
<br>
The western United States this century is facing a greatly
heightened risk of heavy rains inundating areas that were recently
scarred by wildfires, new research warns. Such events can cause
significant destruction, including debris flows, mudslides, and
flash floods, because the denuded landscape cannot easily contain
the drenching moisture.<br>
<br>
A new study finds that, if society emits heat-trapping greenhouse
gases at a high rate, the number of times that an extreme fire event
is likely to be followed within one year by an extreme rainfall
event will increase by more than eight times in the Pacific
Northwest by the end of the century. It will more than double in
California...<br>
- -<br>
Overall, more than 90% of extreme fire events ... will be followed
by at least three extreme rainfalls within five years.<br>
<br>
The study authors, including scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), used advanced computer models of past
and future climate, as well as an index of weather variables that
contribute to wildfire risk, to reach their results. <br>
<br>
Lead author Danielle Touma, who did much of the research at the
University of California, Santa Barbara, before coming to NCAR,
noted that previous research has shown that both wildfires and
extreme rainfall will increase in the West with climate change.
However, the increased frequency of extreme rainfall-after-fire
events came as a surprise.<br>
<br>
“It’s very concerning, given the destruction that comes with these
kinds of events,” Touma said. “Clearly we need to understand the
risks better, as this creates a major threat to people and
infrastructure.”<br>
<br>
The study is being published this week in Science Advances. Funding
came primarily from the U.S. National Science Foundation, which is
NCAR’s sponsor, and the Department of Energy. Researchers from the
University of California, Santa Barbara; the University of
California, Los Angeles; the Nature Conservancy of California; and
Washington State University contributed to the study.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Fires and Rain on the Rise</b><br>
Heavy rainfall on burned areas is often hard to predict, but it can
have devastating impacts. In 2018, debris flows in Montecito,
California, caused by a brief and intense rainfall over an area that
had burned just a month earlier, left 23 people dead and caused
widespread property damage. Torrential rains in Colorado’s Glenwood
Canyon last year triggered a massive mudslide in a recently burned
area, stranding more than 100 people and closing a portion of I-70
in the canyon for weeks. <br>
<br>
Following a fire, the risk of debris flows persists for 3-5 years,
and the risk of flash floods for 5-8 years, because of the time
needed for ground cover and fine roots to recover followed by the
regrowth of vegetation.<br>
<br>
To study the frequency of extreme rainfall events after extreme
wildfires in a warming world, Touma and her co-authors turned to an
ensemble of simulations by a number of climate and weather models,
including the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, a powerful
computer model that enabled them to project likely changes in
climate in the western United States. <br>
<br>
The results indicated that, by the end of the century, there will be
a doubling or more of weather conditions that lead to the risk of
extreme wildfires throughout much of the West, with some regions
experiencing greatly elevated extreme wildfire risk within the next
few decades. In addition, the climate models showed a pronounced
increase in extreme rainfall events.<br>
<br>
The researchers then looked at the number of cases in which extreme
rainfall is likely to fall on the same region that recently
experienced an extreme wildfire. They found that more than half of
extreme wildfire events will be followed within a year by an extreme
rainfall event across much of the West, and virtually all extreme
wildfires in the Pacific Northwest will be followed within five
years by extreme rainfall. Once every three years, drenching rains
in western Colorado or much of the Pacific Northwest may be expected
to inundate regions just three months after extreme wildfires — a
scenario that was virtually unheard of in recent decades.<br>
<br>
Part of the reason for the confluence of extreme fire and rainfall
has to do with how climate change is altering the seasonality of
these events. For example, the study found more extreme rains
occurring in the early fall in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest,
close to the peak fire season of May to September.<br>
<br>
“The gap between fire and rainfall season is becoming shorter,”
Touma said. “One season of disasters is running into another.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20220415-drenching-rains-pose-greater-threat-to-firedamaged-areas-in-west">https://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20220415-drenching-rains-pose-greater-threat-to-firedamaged-areas-in-west</a><br>
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<p><br>
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<i>[ bold, radical, emerging thoughts about deliberate action -
organization in Tasmania ]</i><br>
<b>Approaching Collapse forum [edited]</b><br>
Oct 20, 2021<br>
Just Collapse<br>
Infinite growth on a finite planet has pushed us into crisis, and
this forum tackles the difficult questions and taboo topics:
Bursting the fantasy of sustainability based on clean energy
transition and arguing for equitable approaches to global
population. Pathways forward include a deliberate contraction of the
human enterprise and a planned collapse.<br>
0:00 Dr Kate Booth (University of Tasmania); 12:08 Megan Seibert
(The REAL Green New Deal Project); 41:10 Tristan Sykes (Just
Collapse); 57:46 Q&A (inc. Prof Bill Rees). <br>
This forum took place at the University of Tasmania, as part of
Global Climate Change Week 2021.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/2BjilH04QXQ">https://youtu.be/2BjilH04QXQ</a>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[deeper words at their website ]</i><br>
<b>Just Collapse</b><br>
- Just Collapse is an activist platform dedicated to justice in face
of inevitable and irreversible global collapse.<br>
- Just Collapse advocates for a Planned Collapse to avert the worst
outcomes that will follow an otherwise unplanned, reactive collapse.<br>
- Just Collapse recognizes that there will be no justice in an
unplanned collapse.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://justcollapse.org/">https://justcollapse.org/</a><br>
<p><br>
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<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<i>[ reality as a metaphor for game theory ]</i><br>
<b>Game theory says the Paris Agreement looks like a winner for the
climate</b><br>
By Lila MacLellan<br>
Quartz at Work reporter<br>
April 17, 2022<br>
One of game theory’s classic dilemmas is called the stag hunt. In
this scenario, two hunters are out in the woods. Both agree to shoot
a deer together. If they cooperate, they may go home with the prize
stag. It’s a gamble, but a big reward. Yet they face a choice.
Either hunter can choose to trap a rabbit alone instead. The smaller
animal, while less tantalizing, is easier to catch. It practically
guarantees they’ll have meat in their own pot next meal assuming
they give up on the bigger prize.<br>
<br>
The key to mutual success—and the biggest win—comes when both
parties establish mutual trust and cooperate. If they don’t, they’re
each tempted to break the original pact, pursue a rabbit, and end up
with less.<br>
That, in a nutshell, describes today’s global climate change
predicament, according to game theorists, economists who study
strategy dilemmas. Every country would benefit by cooperating, but
they’re tempted to cheat by sticking to fossil fuels and continuing
to invest in carbon-emitting industries, leaving everyone worse off.<br>
<br>
Game theory—a branch of economic theory that uses math to predict
how players will respond to a competitive situation when the outcome
depends on how players react— offers one of the best glimpses into
how this might end.<br>
<br>
The climate game is playing out under the international agreement
called the Paris Agreement which commits countries to limit global
warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, thus avoiding the most
catastrophic effects of climate change. Right now, the most
optimistic game theorists say this strategy could be a winner
because it’s structured just like a stag hunt, also known as an
assurance or trust game...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://qz.com/2099301/game-theory-says-the-paris-agreement-might-be-a-climate-winner/">https://qz.com/2099301/game-theory-says-the-paris-agreement-might-be-a-climate-winner/</a><br>
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</p>
<p><br>
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<i>[The news archive - looking back at significant events]</i><br>
<font size="5"><b>April 18, 1977</b></font> <br>
President Carter declares that the effort needed to avert an energy
crisis is the "moral equivalent of war."<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7369">http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7369</a><br>
<br>
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