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<title>June 28, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest</title>
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<p><font size="+2"><i><b>June 28, 2022</b></i></font><br>
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<i>[ maybe should ban all lightning strikes, spontaneous combustion
and any upwind wildfires ]</i><br>
<b>California's largest private landowner closes all forestlands to
public indefinitely due to wildfire, drought danger</b><br>
Katie Dowd - - June 26, 2022<br>
- -<br>
Lumber giant Sierra Pacific Industries owns over 2 million acres of
forestland across California, Washington and Oregon. The company,
which is headquartered in Anderson, Calif., is one of America's
biggest private landowners. In areas where SPI is not actively
logging, the public can usually access the land for hiking,
permitted fishing and hunting and cross-country skiing. But starting
Friday, SPI's extensive holdings will be off-limits due to "extreme
drought and wildfire conditions."...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/California-largest-private-landowner-closes-forest-17266493.php">https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/California-largest-private-landowner-closes-forest-17266493.php</a>
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<i>[ La Nina is the name of a type of climate destabilization --
cooler, wetter.. ] </i><br>
<b>Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the
future hold?</b><br>
Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña.
Some researchers say similar conditions could become more common as
the planet warms.<br>
Nicola Jones - - 23 June 2022 <br>
<br>
<b>Cold-water injection</b><br>
England has another possible explanation for why the IPCC models
could be getting future La Niña-like conditions wrong. As the world
warms and the Greenland ice sheet melts, its fresh cold water is
expected to slow down a dominant conveyor belt of ocean currents:
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Scientists
mostly agree that the AMOC current has slowed down in recent
decades4, but don’t agree on why, or how much it will slow in
future.<br>
<br>
In a study published in Nature Climate Change on 6 June5, England
and his colleagues model how an AMOC collapse would leave an excess
of heat in the tropical South Atlantic, which would trigger a series
of air-pressure changes that ultimately strengthen the Pacific trade
winds. These winds push warm water to the west, thus creating more
La Niña-like conditions. But England says that the current IPCC
models don’t reflect this trend because they don’t include the
complex interactions between ice-sheet melt, freshwater injections,
ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. “We keep adding bells
and whistles to these models. But we need to add in the ice sheets,”
he says.<br>
<br>
Michael Mann, a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University in
State College, has also argued2 that climate change will both slow
the AMOC and create more La Niña-like conditions. He says the study
shows how these two factors can reinforce each other. Getting the
models to better reflect what’s going on in the ocean, says Seager,
“remains a very active research topic”.<br>
<br>
“We need to better understand what’s going on,” agrees L’Heureux.
For now, she adds, whether, how and why the ENSO might change “is a
very interesting mystery”.<br>
doi: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01668-1">https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01668-1</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1</a>
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</p>
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<i>[ Yes we should know about all the others ]</i><br>
<b>CO2 Isn’t the Only Gas Bad for Earth. What Are We Doing About the
Rest?</b><br>
AATHIRA PERINCHERY - - 6-27-2022<br>
Kochi: While carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions often dominate climate
talks, we also need to cut emissions of several other climate
pollutants to be able to meaningfully curb global warming. The
reason is simple: CO2 is only one half of the problem.<br>
<br>
Specifically, a recent study calculated these pollutants that
together contribute almost as much to global warming as does CO2.
And most of them last only a (relatively) short time in the
atmosphere, so reducing their concentration could slow warming
faster than any other mitigation strategy.<br>
<br>
Combined cuts – in both CO2 and these short-lived climate pollutants
– can in fact slow the rate of warming by a decade or two earlier
than decarbonisation alone and allow the world to stay below the
agreed limit of 1.5º C, the study found.<br>
<br>
The Wire Science spoke to the study’s authors, Gabrielle Dreyfus and
Durwood Zaelke, about their work, its implications in the fight
against the climate crisis and how India can benefit by responding
more effectively against a wider portfolio of ‘climate pollutants’.<br>
Zaelke is president and Dreyfus is chief scientist – both at the
Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development in Washington,
D.C. and Paris.<br>
- -<br>
<b>Gabrielle Dreyfus:</b> Over the past decade or so, the debate has
been framed around the idea of attention to non-CO2 [greenhouse
gases] as a trade-off or potential distraction from cutting CO2. But
this is not the right way to think about the issue. We are
experiencing the impacts of global warming now. We are seeing
heatwaves that would have been impossible without human-caused
climate changes. The severity and frequency of extreme events is
greater than predicted.<br>
<br>
Similar to the debate a decade ago, about whether adaptation was a
distraction from mitigation, we are at the point where it is obvious
that we need to do both. The same is true for non-CO2 pollutants
like methane, tropospheric ozone, HFCs [hydrofluorocarbons] and
black carbon.<br>
<br>
Cutting these short-lived super-climate-pollutants is the only
mitigation strategy that can slow warming in the near term, slow the
self-reinforcing feedbacks that are accelerating warming, avoid
irreversible tipping points, and allow for adaptation.<br>
<br>
The distinction between near-term and long-term warming, and the
effects they have on each other, appears to be an important part of
this discourse. Could you shed some light on this, and why they both
warrant different mitigation measures?<br>
<br>
<b>Gabrielle Dreyfus:</b> Different climate pollutants stay in the
atmosphere for different periods of time. CO2 continues to warm the
planet for centuries. In contrast, short-lived climate pollutants
like methane, hydrofluorocarbons, black carbon and tropospheric
ozone only stay in the atmosphere for days, to weeks to 15 years or
less.<br>
<br>
This means cutting emissions of short-lived climate pollutants can
quickly reduce their concentration in the atmosphere and the warming
they cause.<br>
<br>
Most CO2 emissions come from burning fossil fuels, so transitioning
to non-fossil renewable sources of energy is key for cutting carbon
dioxide emissions. This fossil fuel transition will also reduce
about a third of methane emissions, but not methane from landfills
and agriculture, so those need separate mitigation strategies.<br>
<br>
Similarly, fossil-fuel strategies don’t reduce hydrofluorocarbon
emissions, so a separate strategy is needed for those. Luckily, we
have the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol that has
established a phasedown schedule for HFCs.<br>
<br>
The importance of non-CO2 pollutants and their role in climate
mitigation has been “underappreciated due to misperception arising
from inconsistencies between IPCC WG I and WG III reports,” your
paper says. Could you tell us more about this? Would you say that
this “misperception” has affected our response to climate change?<br>
<br>
<b>Gabrielle Dreyfus: </b>The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse
gases to current and future warming has been underappreciated in
part due to discrepancies between how the IPCC [Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change] reports contribution to warming in its
science report (by the Working Group I, or WG I) and in its
mitigation report (WG III).<br>
<br>
By choosing to show emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent with a
100-year time horizon and ignoring the warming and cooling impacts
of some gases and aerosols, the WG III report significantly
underrepresents the nearly equal contribution to current warming
from non-CO2 pollutants that include non-CO2 greenhouse gases and
black carbon.<br>
<br>
Excluding these non-CO2 and non-greenhouse-gas climate forces from
emissions accounting obscures the impact of mitigation policy,
especially in the near term.<br>
<br>
The Netherlands has decided to downscale, relocate or shut farms to
cut down on nitrogen emissions. Is this a good move? And what
happens to farmers’ livelihoods – how do we work around that?<br>
<br>
<b>Durwood Zaelke: </b>Reducing anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O)
emissions must integrate efforts to improve farmers’ livelihoods,
such as providing subsidy programmes and other incentives.<br>
<br>
Existing, cost-effective technology can reduce N2O emissions in the
agricultural sector by 50% through no-till farming, reducing
fertiliser application, and applying nitrogen inhibitors to soil and
manure. Studies have found that applying nitrogen inhibitors can
reduce emissions at marginal costs, as well as reduce labour costs
and other incurred costs.<br>
<br>
There are other cost-effective solutions, including the
[sustainable, intensive agriculture], which stimulates
nitrogen-uptake in crops and inhibits greenhouse-gas emissions from
manure.<br>
<br>
Reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions is a critical part of a fast
climate mitigation strategy, as N2O is the third-most damaging
greenhouse gas after CO2 and methane. It also is the last
unregulated gas that destroys the stratospheric ozone layer.<br>
<br>
The agriculture, forestry, and land-use sectors account for 82% of
global anthropogenic N2O emissions and are the main drivers of
increases in atmospheric N2O concentrations, causing up to 71% of
the increase in emissions.<br>
<br>
A global N2O reduction strategy should also include tackling
remaining industrial emissions, where technical solutions already
exist.<br>
<br>
As an ozone depleting substance and a climate pollutant, N2O could
be included in an amendment to the Montreal Protocol, similar to the
Kigali Amendment that mandates the phase down of the production and
consumption of HFCs.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://science.thewire.in/environment/short-lived-climate-pollutants-climate/">https://science.thewire.in/environment/short-lived-climate-pollutants-climate/</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ just a little bit of science - CO2 is not the only bad chemical
- the rest are mixed in a "CO2 equivalents" ]</i><br>
<b>Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach
for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming</b><br>
Contributed by Veerabhadran Ramanathan; <br>
May 23, 2022 - 119 (22) e2123536119<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2123536119">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2123536119</a><br>
<b>Significance</b><br>
This study clarifies the need for comprehensive CO2 and non-CO2
mitigation approaches to address both near-term and long-term
warming. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for nearly
half of all climate forcing from GHG. However, the importance of
non-CO2 pollutants, in particular short-lived climate pollutants, in
climate mitigation has been underrepresented. When historical
emissions are partitioned into fossil fuel (FF)- and non-FF-related
sources, we find that nearly half of the positive forcing from FF
and land-use change sources of CO2 emissions has been masked by
coemission of cooling aerosols. Pairing decarbonization with
mitigation measures targeting non-CO2 pollutants is essential for
limiting not only the near-term (next 25 y) warming but also the
2100 warming below 2 °C.<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change
highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in
both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We
clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the
context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as
the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel
(FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to
1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers
emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is
comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF
sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only
decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can
result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling
effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding
2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with
additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate
pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two
earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold
altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with
decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate
of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which
comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone
over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a
comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to
address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate
disruption.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2123536119">https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2123536119</a><br>
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<i>[ you want to know of higher risks ] </i><br>
<b>The disease after tomorrow</b><br>
Five illnesses spreading in a hotter world<br>
Zoya Teirstein - Jun 27, 2022
<blockquote>For a downloadable field guide to emerging
climate-charged diseases, click here:<br>
8.5×11
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/field-guide-8-5x11-1.pdf">https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/field-guide-8-5x11-1.pdf</a><br>
11×17
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/field-guide-11x17-1.pdf">https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/field-guide-11x17-1.pdf</a><br>
</blockquote>
<b>Powassan virus</b><br>
Carried by the blacklegged (deer) tick, an arachnid about the size
of a poppy seed<br>
The virus causes a neuroinvasive disease that has no treatment,
vaccine, or cure. Early symptoms include headache, fever, nausea,
and weakness — similar to other tick-borne illnesses. But Powassan
is different from most tick diseases because it has an extremely
high mortality rate: One in 10 people who develop the acute form of
the illness die. Half of those who survive a severe bout of Powassan
have long-term health issues such as recurring headaches, loss of
muscle mass and strength, and memory problems...<br>
- -<br>
<b>Chikungunya fever</b><br>
Carried by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes...<br>
Much like ticks, mosquitoes thrive in warm, moist conditions.
Climate change isn’t just warming the planet, it’s throwing the
hydrological cycle out of whack, causing periods of extreme wetness
in regions all over the globe. These conditions may be encouraging
the spread of the mosquito species that carry chikungunya from
California down through the southern half of the U.S. and up into
the Northeast.<br>
<br>
“We are not prepared.”<br>
— Charles Ben Beard, deputy director of the CDC’s division of
vector-borne diseases<br>
Solutions:<br>
Similar to Powassan virus, chikungunya has no vaccine or cure.
Doctors can make patients more comfortable with fluids, local
anesthetics, and aspirin. The most effective tools against
chikungunya are preventative. <br>
- - <br>
<b>Vibriosis</b><br>
Carried by uncooked shellfish such as clams, mussels, and oysters<br>
<b>Climate connection:</b><br>
The optimal water temperature for all Vibrio, including Vibrio
vulnificus, is between 68 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Coastal waters
around large swaths of the U.S. are hitting that temperature
threshold earlier in the year as the planet warms, giving Vibrio a
longer window to proliferate in the water and potentially accumulate
in shellfish. In addition, water that has historically been too
chilly for Vibrio vulnificus to properly thrive is warming up,
allowing the bacteria to spread north into new areas like the
Northeast and Pacific Northwest..<br>
- -<br>
<b>Chagas’ disease</b><br>
Carried by triatomine insects, commonly known as kissing bugs<br>
Kissing bugs are bloodsucking insects that often attach themselves
to the soft skin around the mouths of humans, dogs, and other
animals. But Chagas isn’t spread by the bloodsucking itself. When
kissing bugs feed — at night when people are sleeping — the bugs
defecate. People tend to rub the kissing bug’s feces into their
mouths by accident either in their sleep or when they wake,
inadvertently infecting themselves with Trypanosoma cruzi, the
parasite that causes Chagas.<br>
<br>
In the weeks and months after infection, symptoms can include fever
or swelling. If Chagas is left untreated, it becomes chronic. An
estimated 20 to 30 percent of people with chronic Chagas develop
life-threatening complications such as a dilated heart that can’t
pump enough blood, life-threatening gastrointestinal issues, and
cardiac arrest...<br>
- -<br>
<b>Valley fever</b><br>
Carried by soil containing the fungus Coccidioides<br>
When Coccidioides spores living in dirt circulate in the air —
kicked up by wind, construction, farming, or possibly wildfire smoke
— humans and other animals can breathe the spores in. Most
individuals with healthy immune systems can fight off the fungus by
themselves, but in people with compromised immune systems, the
spores are more likely to survive and extend their fungal filaments
throughout the lungs and sometimes the rest of the body...<br>
- -<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://grist.org/health/the-disease-after-tomorrow/">https://grist.org/health/the-disease-after-tomorrow/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back]</i><br>
<br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>June 28, 2015<br>
</b></i></font>June 28, 2015:<br>
<b>In the Washington Post, Columbia University Law Professor Michael
B. Gerrard observes:</b><br>
<blockquote>"Toward the end of this century, if current trends are
not reversed, large parts of Bangladesh, the Philippines,
Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt and Vietnam, among other countries,
will be under water. Some small island nations, such as Kiribati
and the Marshall Islands, will be close to disappearing entirely.
Swaths of Africa from Sierra Leone to Ethiopia will be turning
into desert. Glaciers in the Himalayas and the Andes, on which
entire regions depend for drinking water, will be melting away.
Many habitable parts of the world will no longer be able to
support agriculture or produce clean water. <br>
<br>
"The people who live there will not sit passively by while they
and their children starve to death. Tens or hundreds of millions
of people will try very hard to go somewhere they can survive.
They will be hungry, thirsty, hot — and desperate. If the search
for safety involves piling into perilous boats and enduring
miserable and dangerous journeys, they will do it. They will cross
borders, regardless of whether they are welcome. And in their
desperation, they could become violent: Forced migration can
exacerbate ethnic and political tensions. Studies show that more
heat tends to increase violence.<br>
<br>
"The United Nations says the maximum tolerable increase in global
average temperatures is 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above
pre-industrial conditions. (Small island nations argued for a much
lower figure; at 3.6 degrees, they’ll be gone.) But the promises
that nations are making ahead of the U.N. climate summit in Paris
in December would still, according to the International Energy
Agency, lead the average temperature to rise by about 4.7 degrees
before the end of the century. Those promises are voluntary and
nonbinding, and if they aren’t kept, the thermometer could go much
higher. Which means our children and grandchildren will be
confronting a humanitarian crisis unlike anything the world has
ever faced.<br>
<br>
"Absent the political will to prevent it, the least we can do is
to start planning for it.<br>
<br>
"Rather than leaving vast numbers of victims of a warmer world
stranded, without any place allowing them in, industrialized
countries ought to pledge to take on a share of the displaced
population equal to how much each nation has historically
contributed to emissions of the greenhouse gases that are causing
this crisis."<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-is-the-worst-polluter-in-the-history-of-the-world-we-should-let-climate-change-refugees-resettle-here/2015/06/25/28a55238-1a9c-11e5-ab92-c75ae6ab94b5_story.html">http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-is-the-worst-polluter-in-the-history-of-the-world-we-should-let-climate-change-refugees-resettle-here/2015/06/25/28a55238-1a9c-11e5-ab92-c75ae6ab94b5_story.html</a>
<br>
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