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<font size="+2"><i><b>September 10, 2022</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ new studies on an old concept -- tipping points ]</i><br>
<b>World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study
finds</b><br>
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already
have passed point of irreversible change<br>
Damian Carrington Environment editor<br>
8 Sep 2022<br>
The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple
“disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.<br>
<br>
It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed
due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.<br>
<br>
These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually
producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in
the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people
depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.<br>
<br>
At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five
tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis
said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become
possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of
almost all mountain glaciers.<br>
<br>
In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with
the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be
triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping
points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to
centuries...<br>
“The Earth may have left a ‘safe’ climate state beyond 1C global
warming,” the researchers concluded, with the whole of human
civilisation having developed in temperatures below this level.
Passing one tipping point is often likely to help trigger others,
producing cascades. But this is still being studied and was not
included, meaning the analysis may present the minimum danger.<br>
<br>
Prof Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research, who was part of the study team, said: “The
world is heading towards 2-3C of global warming...<br>
- -<br>
The analysis, published in the journal Science, assessed more than
200 previous studies on past tipping points, climate observations
and modelling studies. A tipping point is when a temperature
threshold is passed, leading to unstoppable change in a climate
system, even if global heating ends...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Bill McKibben speaks up - conclusions below ] </i><br>
<b>How Bad Is It?</b><br>
And what does that question even mean?<br>
Bill McKibben...<br>
- -<br>
(I)t is a fair question to ask: are we reaching the point where
events are so far out of control that our efforts to stem the tide
are pointless?<br>
<br>
So let me just lay out my own sense, in case it’s helpful to anyone
else<br>
<blockquote><b> </b><b>--</b><b> We are not getting out of this
crisis unscathed</b>, or anything like it. It’s been many years
since “stopping global warming” was on the menu. We’ve raised the
temperature a degree celsius already, and that’s way too much
because—well, see above. A degree is a mess<br>
<br>
<b> </b><b>--</b><b> It will get worse. </b>Even if we do
everything right at this point, there’s enough momentum in the
system to take us near two degrees; that’s going to be far far
worse. Not just twice as bad—damage increases exponentially, not
linearly, as we head past various tipping points.<br>
<br>
<b> </b><b>--</b><b> If we don’t do everything right</b>, that
“near to two degrees” will actually be nearer three degrees
Celsius, which is five or six degrees Fahrenheit, which is a world
where civilizations won’t be able to function in the ways we’re
used to them functioning. That civilizational breakdown—a
political and human phenomenon, not a scientific one—could come
sooner; we don’t know where the civilizational red lines are, only
that we’re close.<br>
<br>
<b> </b><b>--</b><b> Which means: despair is not an option </b>yet,
at least if it’s that kind of despair that leads to inaction. But
desperation is an option—indeed, it’s required. We have to move
hard and fast.<br>
<br>
<b> </b><b>--</b><b> The most obvious place we have to move is
the energy transition.</b> Physics means we have to go fast;
economics means going fast will focus for now on sun, wind, and
batteries because they are cheap and available. The fossil fuel
industry, desperate to maintain its business model, is in the way;
they must be fought.<br>
<br>
<b> </b><b>--</b><b> But we also have to shore up civilizations
</b>in all the other ways we can imagine, especially by sharing
resources and technologies. Our systems are too brittle now;
places like Pakistan just lack the resilience to deal with a
crisis they did not create. Global solidarity is not kindness; on
a small world it’s a survival strategy. <br>
</blockquote>
I did not tell my friend: drop everything else you’re doing and work
only on climate. But I did tell her: all our other dramas now play
out on the stage of climate change. For the foreseeable future—for
as long as our lives last—the rapid rise of the temperature on the
planet of our origin is the overriding human story.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/how-bad-is-it?utm_source=email">https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/how-bad-is-it?utm_source=email</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ In 2014 I posted a simple interactive graphic of IPCC data
visualized by National Geographic videos - just click </i><i><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://localsteps.org/howbad.html">http://localsteps.org/howbad.html</a>
- back then climate scientists were pushed away from making ANY
conjectures outside their specific fields -- receiving public
criticism if they strayed. The book, "Six Degrees" and simple
links to video clips -- easily conveys the crisis ] </i><br>
<b>How bad can it be? ...and when?</b><br>
A one page graph shows Global Warming projections by combining IPCC
models with scenarios by Mark Lynass<br>
This single Web page shows Global Warming history and projections
out to the year 2100. The chart from the UN's IPCC report is
combined with data projections for each degree of warming. You will
want to see the projections for each degree of warming. There are
seven different scenarios. All of them predict inevitable warming of
at least one degree.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://localsteps.org/howbad.html">http://localsteps.org/howbad.html</a> <br>
<i> [My question of "How bad can it be?" posted on my site in
2007 - is still valid ]</i><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ the big question asked by the Guardian ]</i><br>
<b>Humanity’s moment: ‘How can we find meaning in a world that is at
once both heaven and hell?’</b><br>
Facing the reality of climate change forces us to grapple with a
range of complex emotions, and rigid logic will only get us so far<br>
Joëlle Gergis<br>
9 Sep 2022...<br>
<p>The longer I think about the monumental challenges we face, the
more I realise that all any of us can do is choose how we balance
our sense of despair and disillusionment with hope and joy in our
own lives, every single day. It’s not naive optimism, but a series
of pragmatic actions we take to protect our mental health and
strengthen our sense of solidarity with other people who also care
about our planet. In the environmental classic Active Hope: How to
Face the Mess We’re in Without Going Crazy, Joanna Macy and Chris
Johnstone call this “active hope”; something you do rather than
something you have. Instead of being passive in the face of life’s
challenges, active hope is about becoming a proactive agent for
the change you want to see in the world. Whether you are a
business leader, a student, a musician or a parent, we can all do
something – however small it might seem – to influence the
cultural evolution of the communities we are a part of. We need to
be careful not to fall into the trap of viewing anything less than
total victory as a failure; otherwise, it’s easy to give up and
not celebrate the imperfect wins along the way.</p>
There is so much power in realising that you can do something to
inspire others during these dark times simply by showing up. You can
be someone who helps others maintain a belief in the fact that most
people are inherently good. While it’s true that there are
psychopaths, sociopaths and narcissists out there who genuinely
don’t care about other people because of their own psychological
damage, they represent a very small minority of our communities.
While we all behave badly sometimes, most people are honestly doing
the best that they can from day to day.<br>
<br>
Most ordinary people, deep down, really do care about the planetary
crisis we are facing, but they often feel powerless and
disillusioned about their ability to influence change. But the truth
is that we are living through a time of history in the making. As
Belgian writer Raoul Vaneigem puts it, “revolutionary moments are
carnivals in which the individual life celebrates its unification
with a regenerated society”. We can reclaim our power by being
creators of our new world, in the present moment – right now –
instead of being fixated on an uncertain future. As Rebecca Solnit
writes, hope becomes “an electrifying force in the present” that
allows us to participate in inventing and reshaping our vision for a
new world.<br>
<p>As Mahatma Gandhi once said, “the greatness of humanity is not in
being human, but in being humane”. Only when we return to a place
of shared compassion can we truly begin the work of restoring hope
and life on our planet.</p>
In Caroline Hickman’s groundbreaking study on climate change anxiety
and depression, researchers reported that close to half of the young
people they interviewed said their feelings about climate change
negatively affected their daily life and functioning. Three-quarters
feel the future is frightening, with over half believing that
“humanity is doomed”. Many fear that the things they value the most
will be destroyed. Close to two-thirds of young people feel like
their government is failing them and betraying future generations.
They confessed that significant emotional distress sometimes
affected their ability to function. The top three words used to
describe their response were “sad”, “afraid” and “anxious”, with
about 40% of people reporting feeling despair, grief or depressed.
Less than a third felt optimistic about the future, with 41%
admitting their reluctance to have children. Perhaps the most
confronting finding was that 83% of young people around the world
believe that people have failed to care for the planet. These
sentiments reflect a heartbreaking loss of faith in humanity that
threatens to rob us of joy and vitality, undermining our collective
response to the crisis we now face.<br>
<br>
The implications of Hickman’s results are clear: we need to
acknowledge that climate change is having far-reaching consequences
on our mental health. It’s time to start having honest conversations
that normalise the strong emotional responses many of us have to the
distressing times we are living through...<br>
- -<br>
When we reawaken our senses that have become numbed and estranged
from the world around us, we experience a profound sense of our
belonging in this extraordinary web of life, a reverence for our
miraculous planet, and an awareness of the power we all wield to
harm or heal, to accept or abandon our unique role in creating a
more inspiring future. When we remember that each of us has a part
to play, when we believe that our contribution really does matter,
our soul comes alive. We find meaning in a meaningless world.<br>
<br>
This is an edited extract from <b>Humanity’s Moment: A Climate
Scientist’s Case for Hope, </b>published by Black Inc and out now<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/10/humanitys-moment-how-can-we-find-meaning-in-a-world-that-is-at-once-both-heaven-and-hell">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/10/humanitys-moment-how-can-we-find-meaning-in-a-world-that-is-at-once-both-heaven-and-hell</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at the wildfire lessons of 7
years ago ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>September 10, 2015</b></i></font> <br>
September 10, 2015:<br>
<br>
The New York Times reports on severe wildfires in California.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/us/fires-in-west-leave-residents-gasping-on-the-soot-left-behind.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/us/fires-in-west-leave-residents-gasping-on-the-soot-left-behind.html</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<p>======================================= <br>
<b class="moz-txt-star"><span class="moz-txt-tag">*Mass media is
lacking, here are a few </span>daily summaries<span
class="moz-txt-tag"> of global warming news - email delivered*</span></b>
<br>
<br>
=========================================================<br>
<b>*Inside Climate News</b><br>
Newsletters<br>
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day
or once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s top
headlines deliver the full story, for free.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/">https://insideclimatenews.org/</a><br>
--------------------------------------- <br>
*<b>Climate Nexus</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*">https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*</a>
<br>
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News
summarizes the most important climate and energy news of the day,
delivering an unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting.
It also provides original reporting and commentary on climate
denial and pro-polluter activity that would otherwise remain
largely unexposed. 5 weekday <br>
================================= <br>
<b class="moz-txt-star"><span class="moz-txt-tag">*</span>Carbon
Brief Daily <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up">https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up</a><span
class="moz-txt-tag">*</span></b> <br>
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon
Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to
thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest
of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change
and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in
the peer-reviewed journals. <br>
more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief">https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief</a>
<br>
================================== <br>
*T<b>he Daily Climate </b>Subscribe <a
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