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<font size="+2"><i><b>October 12, 2022</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ Richmond, VA decides to act ]</i><br>
<b>Fearing climate change catastrophe, McEachin asks Richmond to
request federal flood wall study</b><br>
Chris Suarez Oct 11, 2022 <br>
Richmond’s flood wall has never been overtopped by the James River
in its nearly 30 years, but Rep. Donald McEachin, D-4th, thinks a
new engineering study is needed to assess how much water it can
withstand if a catastrophic storm hits the city.<br>
<br>
Despite calls for delay, Richmond City Council approves Civilian
Review Board bill<br>
In a letter sent Tuesday to Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and City
Council President Cynthia Newbille , McEachin asked that it formally
submit a request for a federal study, citing the possibility that
climate change could cause a “rain bomb” to strike Richmond the same
way that Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017.<br>
<br>
“Richmond has its own history with severe flooding, and I fear that
those instances of flooding in the city may increase as we continue
to experience the effects of climate change,” McEachin said in his
letter. “I believe it is imperative that we prepare the city for all
possibilities.”<br>
While the congressman was able to meet with officials from the Army
Corps of Engineers recently to discuss his concerns, he said it’s up
to the city or state government to request the study by the federal
agency.<br>
<br>
“In this briefing USACE staff noted that the floodwall and levee
system is built to withstand a 280-year flood event,” McEachin said.
“However, USACE has not, to date, studied whether the resiliency of
the system has diminished as the impacts of climate change have
become more pronounced.”<br>
<br>
Commissioned on Oct. 21, 1994, the $143 million flood wall was
designed to protect both Shockoe Bottom and Manchester from river
flooding up to 32 feet.<br>
[ read the Letter
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/richmond.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/02/b024d32d-ee54-50e4-a022-0a8752d5717e/6345dd8cdb2a6.pdf.pdf">https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/richmond.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/02/b024d32d-ee54-50e4-a022-0a8752d5717e/6345dd8cdb2a6.pdf.pdf</a>
]<br>
<br>
In addition to the large concrete wall, the city’s flood prevention
system includes an earthen levee more than a mile long and an
additional wall-and-levee system about 2,000 feet long. The southern
side of the system extends about 2 miles, while the northern barrier
extends 1.2 miles.<br>
<br>
City officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment
Tuesday afternoon, but the mayor and council have previously stated
concerns about climate change.<br>
The City Council year passed a resolution declaring a “climate
emergency.”<br>
<br>
And the city last week announced the hiring of Laura Thomas as its
first director of sustainability, who will be in charge of
overseeing “climate equity, action and resilience initiatives.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://richmond.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/fearing-climate-change-catastrophe-mceachin-asks-richmond-to-request-federal-flood-wall-study/article_5a76dfec-b767-5903-b915-64d855aaf667.html">https://richmond.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/fearing-climate-change-catastrophe-mceachin-asks-richmond-to-request-federal-flood-wall-study/article_5a76dfec-b767-5903-b915-64d855aaf667.html</a><br>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/richmond.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/02/b024d32d-ee54-50e4-a022-0a8752d5717e/6345dd8cdb2a6.pdf.pdf">https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/richmond.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/02/b024d32d-ee54-50e4-a022-0a8752d5717e/6345dd8cdb2a6.pdf.pdf</a><br>
</p>
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</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ From Africa News ]</i><br>
<b>"Heatwaves will make entire regions uninhabitable within decades"
-UN, Red Cross</b><br>
By Rédaction Africanews<br>
Last updated: 10-11-2022<br>
Heatwaves will become so extreme in certain regions of the world
within decades that human life there will be unsustainable, the
United Nations and the Red Cross said Monday.<br>
<br>
Heatwaves are predicted to "exceed human physiological and social
limits" in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and south and southwest
Asia, with extreme events triggering "large-scale suffering and loss
of life", the organisations said.<br>
<br>
Heatwave catastrophes this year in countries like Somalia and
Pakistan foreshadow a future with deadlier, more frequent, and more
intense heat-related humanitarian emergencies, they warned in a
joint report.<br>
<br>
The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies (IFRC) released the report in advance of next month's UN's
COP27 climate change summit in Egypt.<br>
<br>
They said aggressive steps needed to be taken immediately to avert
potentially recurrent heat disasters, listing steps that could
mitigate the worst effects of extreme heat.<br>
<br>
"There are clear limits beyond which people exposed to extreme heat
and humidity cannot survive," the report said.<br>
<br>
"There are also likely to be levels of extreme heat beyond which
societies may find it practically impossible to deliver effective
adaptation for all.<br>
<br>
"On current trajectories, heatwaves could meet and exceed these
physiological and social limits in the coming decades, including in
regions such as the Sahel and south and southwest Asia."<br>
<br>
It warned that the impact of this would be "large-scale suffering
and loss of life, population movements and further entrenched
inequality."<br>
<br>
The combined effects of ageing, warming and urbanisation would cause
a significant increase in the number of at-risk people in developing
countries in the coming decades.<br>
<br>
"Projected future death rates from extreme heat are staggeringly
high -- comparable in magnitude by the end of the century to all
cancers or all infectious diseases -- and staggeringly unequal," the
report said.<br>
<br>
Agricultural workers, children, the elderly and pregnant and
breastfeeding women are at higher risk of illness and death, the
report claimed.<br>
<br>
"As the climate crisis goes unchecked, extreme weather events, such
as heatwaves and floods, are hitting the most vulnerable people the
hardest," said UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths.<br>
<br>
"Nowhere is the impact more brutally felt than in countries already
reeling from hunger, conflict and poverty."<br>
<br>
IFRC Secretary-General Jagan Chapagain urged countries at COP27 to
invest in climate adaptation and mitigation in the regions most at
risk.<br>
<br>
OCHA and the IFRC suggested five main steps to help combat the
impact of extreme heatwaves, including providing early information
to help people and authorities react in time, and finding new ways
of financing local-level action.<br>
<br>
They also included humanitarian organisations testing more
"thermally-appropriate" emergency shelters and "cooling centres",
while getting communities to alter their development planning to
take account of likely extreme heat impacts.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.africanews.com/2022/10/11/heatwaves-will-make-entire-regions-uninhabitable-within-decades-un-red-cross/">https://www.africanews.com/2022/10/11/heatwaves-will-make-entire-regions-uninhabitable-within-decades-un-red-cross/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[ "100% of our water comes out of the Ogallala Aquifer " brief
video ] <br>
</i><b>Nebraska State Climatologist Martha Shulski PhD on the
Ogallala Aquifer</b><br>
Oct 11, 2022 The Ogallala Aquifer is a massive supply of
groundwater that is crucial to agriculture in the western Plains of
North America.<br>
Portions of the Aquifer are being depleted much faster than nature
can recharge them. I spoke to Nebraska State Climatologist Martha
Shulski.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-EMeXu8kyQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-EMeXu8kyQ</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ -- moving ice grinds rocks, makes a sand ]</i><br>
<b>Unlocking the secrets of 'glacier flour'</b><br>
by Carl von Ossietzky -- Universität Oldenburg<br>
<br>
OCTOBER 7, 2022<br>
In addition to living cells and dead organic material, the water of
the Garibaldi Fjord in Patagonia contains mainly mineral particles.
Credit: Jochen Wollschläger<br>
The meltwater from glaciers carries thousands of tiny rock fragments
into the sea. Using a special camera, researchers at the University
of Oldenburg can make these mineral particles visible in all their
diversity—and investigate their impact on ecosystems.<br>
<br>
Dr. Jochen Wollschläger is studying a fascinating collage. Photos of
more than a hundred tiny particles are gathered together in the
image. Some look like shards of glass with jagged edges, delicate
and translucent. Others are darker and rather clumpy in shape, but
still translucent. A few are completely opaque.<br>
<br>
"The picture shows photos of the particles we found in a water
sample from the Garibaldi Fjord in southern Patagonia," says the
marine biologist, who researches the optical properties of seawater
in the Marine Sensor Systems group at the University of Oldenburg's
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment
(ICBM).<br>
<br>
Wollschläger spent January and February of this year on board the
research vessel Meteor, studying how the melting of glaciers is
affecting the ecosystems in the fjords in the Beagle Channel of the
Tierra del Fuego Archipelago together with other marine scientists
from the ICBM, Bremerhaven, Chile and Argentina.<br>
<br>
The tiny particles play an important role in the water—in particular
the transparent splinters: "These mineral particles are called
'glacial flour'. They consist of tiny grains of rock that are
scoured off the underlying rock when a glacier migrates," the
researcher explains. When glaciers melt due to global warming,
particles that were previously trapped in the ice are released into
the water.<br>
<br>
Less light in the depths<br>
<br>
A layer of meltwater about one to one-and-a-half meters thick often
forms on the surface of the water in fjords. This layer has a milky,
clouded appearance due to the tiny mineral fragments it contains.
"The particles limit the amount of light that penetrates to the
depths," reports Wollschläger, who is researching how this affects
the underwater light conditions—and how free-swimming, tiny algae
cope with the reduced amounts of light.<br>
<br>
To measure the amount of glacial flour in the water, Wollschläger
uses an instrument called a FlowCam which performs three tasks
simultaneously: it provides a microscopic analysis of liquid
samples, creates enlarged images of the particles suspended in the
liquid, and characterizes the particles on the basis of various
measurements.<br>
<br>
"In principle, the FlowCam functions as a kind of automatic
microscope with an integrated camera," the biologist explains. It
measures variables such as the particles' diameter, color,
transparency and estimated volume. On the basis of this information
Wollschläger then sorts the particles into different categories.<br>
<br>
In the collage, the particles from the Garibaldi Fjord have been
sorted according to size. In addition to dead organic material the
odd living cell—mainly tiny algae—can be observed. However, in some
samples more than 90 percent of the particles are glacial flour—an
indication that the water of the fjord contains enormous amounts of
meltwater in some places.<br>
<br>
Wollschläger is currently analyzing the data in greater detail, but
one thing is already clear: the glacial flour has a major impact on
the growth of plant plankton—which in turn forms the basis of the
food chain in the marine environment. "In many places it is already
so dark 20 meters below the surface that hardly any photosynthesis
can take place," says Wollschläger. The big question now is how much
glacial flour will end up in the fjords in the future, as the
glaciers continue to melt.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://phys.org/news/2022-10-secrets-glacier-flour.html">https://phys.org/news/2022-10-secrets-glacier-flour.html</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[Climate finance -- follow the money, again ]</i><br>
<b>Further Delaying Climate Policies Will Hurt Economic Growth </b><br>
The transition to a greener future has a price—but the longer
countries wait to make the shift, the larger the costs<br>
Benjamin Carton, Jean-Marc Natal<br>
October 5, 2022<br>
The world must cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least a quarter
before the end of this decade to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
Progress needed toward such a major shift will inevitably impose
short-term economic costs, though these are dwarfed by the
innumerable long-term benefits of slowing climate change.<br>
<br>
In our latest World Economic Outlook, we estimate the near-term
impact of different climate mitigation policies on output and
inflation. If the right measures are implemented immediately and
phased in over the next eight years, the costs will be small.
However, if the transition to renewables is delayed, the costs will
be much greater.<br>
<br>
To assess the short-term impact of transitioning to renewables, we
developed a model that splits countries into four regions—China, the
euro area, the United States, and a block representing the rest of
the world. We assume that each region introduces budget-neutral
policies that include greenhouse gas taxes, which are increased
gradually to achieve a 25 percent reduction in emissions by 2030,
combined with transfers to households, subsidies to low-emitting
technologies, and labor tax cuts.<br>
<br>
The results show that such a policy package could slow global
economic growth by 0.15 percentage point to 0.25 percentage point
annually from now until 2030, depending on how quickly regions can
wean off fossil fuels for electricity generation. The more difficult
the transition to clean electricity, the greater the greenhouse gas
tax increase or equivalent regulations needed to incentivize
change—and the larger the macroeconomic costs in terms of lost
output and higher inflation.<br>
<br>
For Europe, the United States, and China, the costs will likely be
lower, ranging between 0.05 percentage point and 0.20 percentage
point on average over eight years. Not surprisingly, the costs will
be highest for fossil-fuel exporters and energy-intensive emerging
market economies, which on balance drive the results for the rest of
the world. That means countries must cooperate more on finance and
technology needed to reduce costs—and share more of the required
know-how—especially when it comes to low-income countries. In all
cases, however, policymakers should consider potential long-term
output losses from unchecked climate change, which could be orders
of magnitude larger according to some estimates.<br>
<br>
In most regions, inflation increases moderately, from 0.1 percentage
point to 0.4 percentage point. To curb the costs, climate policies
must be gradual. But to be most effective, they also need to be
credible. If climate policies are only partially credible, firms and
households will not consider future tax increases when planning
investment decisions.<br>
<br>
This will slow the transition (less investment in thermal insulation
and heating, low-emitting technologies, etc.), requiring more
stringent policies to reach the same decarbonization goal. Inflation
would be higher and gross domestic product growth lower by the end
of the decade as a result. We estimate that only partially credible
policies could almost double the cost of transitioning to renewables
by 2030.<br>
<br>
Inflation and monetary policy<br>
<br>
A pressing concern among policymakers is whether climate policy
could complicate the job of central banks, and potentially stoke
wage-price spirals in the current high-inflation environment. Our
analysis shows this is not the case.<br>
<br>
Gradual and credibly implemented climate mitigation policies give
households and firms the motive and time to transition toward a
low-emission economy. Monetary policy will need to adjust to ensure
inflation expectations remain anchored, but for the kind of policies
simulated, the costs are small and much easier for central banks to
handle than typical supply shocks that cause a sudden surge in
energy prices.<br>
<br>
Using the United States as an example, we show how climate policies
impact inflation and growth under a range of scenarios. When
policies are gradual and credible, the output-inflation trade-off is
small. Central banks can choose to either stabilize a price index
that includes greenhouse gas taxes or let the tax fully pass through
prices. The former would only cost an additional 0.1 percentage
point of growth annually.<br>
<br>
If the transition is more difficult—reflecting a slower transition
to clean electricity generation—the trade-off increases but remains
manageable.<br>
<br>
The costs would be much higher if monetary policy were to lose
credibility, a concern in today’s high-inflation environment. If
inflation expectations become de-anchored, introducing climate
policies could lead to second-round effects and a larger
output-inflation trade-off, as illustrated by the less-credible
monetary policy scenario. Our analytical chapter shows how to design
climate policies to avoid such a situation, curbing the impact of
the greenhouse gas tax on inflation with subsidies, feebates or
labor tax cuts. Is it reasonable to wait—as some have proposed—until
inflation is down before implementing climate mitigation policies?
We ran a scenario delaying implementation until 2027 that still
achieves the same reduction in cumulative emissions in the long
term. The delayed package is phased in more rapidly and requires a
higher greenhouse gas tax, since a steeper decline in emissions is
necessary to offset the accumulation of emissions from 2023 to 2026.<br>
<br>
The results are striking. Even in the most favorable circumstances
when monetary policy is credible and the transition to decarbonized
electricity is rapid, the output-inflation trade-off would rise
significantly; GDP would have to drop by 1.5 percent below baseline
over four years to drive inflation back to target. Delay beyond 2027
would require an even more rushed transition in which inflation can
be contained only at significant cost to real GDP. The longer we
wait, the worse the trade-off.<br>
<br>
Better understanding the near-term macroeconomic implications of
climate policies and their interaction with other policies is
crucial to enhance their design. Transitioning to a cleaner economy
entails short-term costs, but delaying will be far costlier.<br>
<br>
—This blog is based on Chapter 3 of the October 2022 World Economic
Outlook, “Near-term Macroeconomic Impact of Decarbonization
Policies.” The authors of the chapter are Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi,
Benjamin Carton (co-lead), Christopher Evans, Florence Jaumotte,
Dirk Muir, Jean-Marc Natal (co-lead), Augustus J. Panton, and Simon
Voigts.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/05/further-delaying-climate-policies-will-hurt-economic-growth">https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/05/further-delaying-climate-policies-will-hurt-economic-growth</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Climate Collapse ]</i><br>
<b>Climate change and the threat to civilization</b><br>
Daniel Steel, C. Tyler DesRoches <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7318-6948">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7318-6948</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="mailto:tyler.desroches@asu.edu">tyler.desroches@asu.edu</a>,
and Kian Mintz-WooAuthors Info & <br>
October 6, 2022<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210525119">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210525119</a><br>
<br>
Collapse Scenarios<br>
Collapse Mechanisms<br>
<br>
In a speech about climate change from April 4th of this year, UN
General Secretary António Guterres lambasted “the empty pledges that
put us on track to an unlivable world” and warned that “we are on a
fast track to climate disaster” (1). Although stark, Guterres’
statements were not novel. Guterres has made similar remarks on
previous occasions, as have other public figures, including Sir
David Attenborough, who warned in 2018 that inaction on climate
change could lead to “the collapse of our civilizations” (2). In
their article, “World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
2021”—which now has more than 14,700 signatories from 158
countries—William J. Ripple and colleagues state that climate change
could “cause significant disruptions to ecosystems, society, and
economies, potentially making large areas of Earth uninhabitable”...<br>
- -<br>
Because civilization cannot exist in unlivable or uninhabitable
places, all of the above warnings can be understood as asserting the
potential for anthropogenic climate change to cause civilization
collapse (or “climate collapse”) to a greater or lesser extent. Yet
despite discussing many adverse impacts, climate science literature,
as synthesized for instance by assessment reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has little at all
to say about whether or under which conditions climate change might
threaten civilization. Although a body of scientific research exists
on historical and archeological cases of collapse (4), discussions
of mechanisms whereby climate change might cause the collapse of
current civilizations has mostly been the province of journalists,
philosophers, novelists, and filmmakers. We believe that this should
change.<br>
Here we call for treating the mechanisms and uncertainties
associated with climate collapse as a critically important topic for
scientific inquiry. Doing so requires clarifying what “civilization
collapse” means and explaining how it connects to topics addressed
in climate science, such as increased risks from both fast- and
slow-onset extreme weather events. This kind of information, we
claim, is crucial for the public and for policymakers alike, for
whom climate collapse may be a serious concern. Our analysis builds
on the latest research, including Kemp et al.’s PNAS Perspective,
which drew attention to the importance of scientifically exploring
the ways that climate outcomes can impact complex socioeconomic
systems (5). We go further by providing greater detail about
societal collapse, for instance, distinguishing three progressively
more severe scenarios. Moreover, we emphasize avoiding doom-saying
bias and recommend studying collapse mechanisms in conjunction with
successful adaptation and resilience, seeing these as two sides of
the same coin.<br>
Collapse Scenarios<br>
We define civilization collapse as the loss of societal capacity to
maintain essential governance functions, especially maintaining
security, the rule of law, and the provision of basic necessities
such as food and water. Civilization collapses in this sense could
be associated with civil strife, violence, and widespread scarcity,
and thus have extremely adverse effects on human welfare. Such
collapses can be wider or narrower in scope, so we consider three
representative scenarios...<br>
- -<br>
There is, in sum, no solid basis at present for dismissing the
broken world and global collapse as too unlikely to merit serious
consideration. Given the moral and practical importance of these
scenarios, we believe that science should endeavor to learn more
about mechanisms that might lead to them.<br>
As a topic of urgent concern to humanity, the risk of climate
collapse demands careful scientific investigation. And research on
closely related topics—such as past cases of collapse, limits to
adaptation, and systemic risk—makes it difficult to argue that
climate collapse is impossible to study scientifically. Still, some
may worry that pursuing scientific study of climate collapse will
cause anxiety and encourage emotional disengagement from action on
climate change.<br>
We disagree. Warnings about climate collapse issued by scientists
and scientifically informed public figures are already present in
the public discourse, whereas survey data suggest that climate
change is a source of widespread public concern and anxiety (26,
27). Against this backdrop, careful scientific study of climate
collapse might act as a counterweight to discussions of climate
collapse that are sensationalistic or biased towards portending
doom. And, depending on the results of the research, it might serve
as a rebuttal to skeptics who refuse to take the possibility of
climate collapse seriously at all. A sober assessment of the risk of
climate collapse and the pathways by which it can be kept at bay, we
suggest, may help to settle nerves and spur action.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210525119">https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210525119</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at Nobel Peace Prize and Global
Warming ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>October 12, 2007</b></i></font> <br>
October 12, 2007: Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change win the Nobel Peace Prize.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/gkrXNbn3y6o">http://youtu.be/gkrXNbn3y6o</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/NJo_w3lLyvo">http://youtu.be/NJo_w3lLyvo</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p>======================================= <br>
<b class="moz-txt-star"><span class="moz-txt-tag">*Mass media is
lacking, here are a few </span>daily summaries<span
class="moz-txt-tag"> of global warming news - email delivered*</span></b>
<br>
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We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day
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<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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--------------------------------------- <br>
*<b>Climate Nexus</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*">https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*</a>
<br>
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News
summarizes the most important climate and energy news of the day,
delivering an unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting.
It also provides original reporting and commentary on climate
denial and pro-polluter activity that would otherwise remain
largely unexposed. 5 weekday <br>
================================= <br>
<b class="moz-txt-star"><span class="moz-txt-tag">*</span>Carbon
Brief Daily <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up">https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up</a><span
class="moz-txt-tag">*</span></b> <br>
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon
Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to
thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest
of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change
and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in
the peer-reviewed journals. <br>
more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief">https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief</a>
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<br>
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