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<font size="+2"><i><b>November 15, 2022</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ overheard on-line - the motto for next year's COP28: "1.5 is
ecocide" ] </i><br>
<b>"One point five is ecocide"</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwJmklRdqbs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwJmklRdqbs</a><br>
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<i>[ Knowing the cause is to know the solution ]</i><br>
<b>Ending the climate crisis has one simple solution: Stop using
fossil fuels</b><br>
Published: November 14, 2022 <br>
- -<br>
If we don’t end the use of fossil fuels, all of the rest adds up to
little more than branches piled on the tracks in front of a runaway
train. They might slow the train temporarily, but until we get
inside the engine and shut off the throttle, the train will keep
accelerating...<br>
- -<br>
We need to quickly move to shut down fossil fuel use altogether, by
replacing existing infrastructure as quickly as possible with solar,
wind and other non-fossil energy sources so that people can thrive
in a safe climate future.<br>
It’s time to look past the distractions and focus on the simple
solution to the climate crisis. We need to stop burning coal, oil
and natural gas. Our climate future depends on this.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/ending-the-climate-crisis-has-one-simple-solution-stop-using-fossil-fuels-194489">https://theconversation.com/ending-the-climate-crisis-has-one-simple-solution-stop-using-fossil-fuels-194489</a>
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<i>[ money talks, NYTimes prints ]</i><br>
<b>Wealthy Nations Offer Indonesia $20 Billion to Curb Coal</b><br>
The deal is the most ambitious effort yet by the United States and
European countries to coax a developing nation into abandoning the
dirtiest of the fossil fuels.<br>
- -<br>
If the coal deals in South Africa and Indonesia are successful, they
could be a model for the rest of the world, said Camilla Fenning, an
expert on fossil fuel transitions at E3G, a London-based climate
change think tank. While it would probably be too time-consuming for
wealthy countries like the United States and Japan to negotiate
partnerships with each country in need of support for an energy
transition, these deals could provide a template for larger-scale
programs at multilateral development banks and elsewhere, she said.<br>
<br>
“The big question is whether money is going to flow swiftly and
properly into these partnerships,” said Ms. Fenning. “If it doesn’t,
that’s really going to degrade confidence in these deals, given how
much attention they’ve received so far.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/climate/indonesia-coal-agreement.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/climate/indonesia-coal-agreement.html</a><br>
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<i>[ The even bigger idea... ]</i><br>
<b>The big idea: stopping climate change isn’t enough – we need to
reverse it</b><br>
With the world on course to exceed 1.5C warming, taking carbon out
of the atmosphere, as well as lowering emissions, will become
increasingly important<br>
To start with, it’s important to emphasise that climate change
happens incrementally rather than in big jumps. There is no evidence
that 1.5C represents a boundary between manageable and catastrophic
impacts. But the further we push the climate beyond where it has
been for the past few million years, the greater and more
unpredictable the risks become. Large climate shifts in the Earth’s
past, and potential future tipping points such as CO2 release from
thawing permafrost, should give us pause: we can’t easily predict
what might happen. Every tenth of a degree matters if we want to
minimise the harm we inflict on ourselves and leave to future
generations.<br>
<br>
But equally, just because we pass 1.5C does not mean that there is
no way back. We know that if we can get emissions down to zero the
world will effectively stop warming. And climate models show that if
we remove more CO2 from the atmosphere than we are emitting it will
actually cool the world back down. Removing CO2 from the atmosphere
and oceans was highlighted in the recent IPCC report as an
“essential element” of meeting our climate goals. Virtually all
climate models suggest that we need to remove 6bn tons of CO2 per
year by 2050 alongside rapid emissions reductions to bring
temperatures back down to 1.5C by the end of the century.<br>
<br>
One form of carbon dioxide removal people are already familiar with
comes in the form of trees and soil. The Earth’s living systems
already sequester about a quarter of the CO2 we emit today (with
another quarter absorbed by the oceans). There is real potential to
enhance this “natural carbon sink” by protecting forests, planting
more of them, and changing how we manage agricultural land and
pasture to get more carbon into the soil. This is relatively low
cost today, but it is also likely to prove temporary. Trees may be
cut down, burn down, or die from beetle infestations, while soil may
dry up due to drought or heat – and these risks will increase as a
result of climate change. There are also limits to the land
available to use. All in all, models suggest that trees and soil
could provide only half of the carbon dioxide removal that we need.<br>
We have a saying in the climate science world – that CO2 is forever.
It will take close to half a million years before a ton of CO2
emitted today from burning fossil fuels is completely removed from
the atmosphere naturally. This means that when we try to neutralise
or undo fossil fuel emissions – for example, with carbon offsets –
those interventions should operate over a similar timeframe: a ton
of emissions from cutting down trees can be neutralised by putting
more carbon in trees or soils, but CO2 from fossil fuels needs to be
balanced by more permanent carbon removal. This is the reason why
the respected Science Based Targets initiative only allows measures
that permanently remove carbon from the atmosphere to neutralise a
company’s remaining fossil fuel emissions in their net-zero standard
– and only alongside deep emissions reductions.<br>
<br>
We should not oversell the role of carbon removal. The vast majority
of the time it is cheaper to reduce emissions than to remove CO2
from the atmosphere after the fact. Models that limit warming to
1.5C show that we need to reduce global CO2 emissions by around 90%,
while only using carbon removal for around 10%. But 10% of the
solution to a problem as big as climate change is still something we
cannot afford to ignore.<br>
<br>
In 2021 the world spent a total of $755bn on reducing emissions. We
should probably aim to spend about 1% of that money on carbon
removal technologies. But we cannot simply sit back and assume that
ways of removing billions of tons of CO2 per year will magically
appear in the decades to come. By investing today, we can ensure
that we are in a good position to make net-zero a reality, stop the
world from continuing to heat up, and give ourselves the tools to
ultimately reverse global warming in the future.<br>
<br>
<b>Further reading</b><br>
<blockquote>Ending Fossil Fuels: Why Net Zero Is Not Enough by Holly
Jean Buck (Verso, £9.99)<br>
<br>
Under a White Sky: Can we save the natural world in time? by
Elizabeth Kolbert (Vintage, £9.99)<br>
<br>
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the
Breakthroughs We Need by Bill Gates (Allen Lane, £20)<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/14/the-big-idea-we-need-to-reverse-climate-change-not-just-stop-it">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/14/the-big-idea-we-need-to-reverse-climate-change-not-just-stop-it</a><br>
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<i>[ Follow the money.... ]</i><br>
<b>Developing countries are calling for more funding and for changes
at the World Bank. </b><br>
4 signs of progress at the UN climate change summit<br>
Published: November 14, 2022<br>
Rachel Kyte<br>
Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts University<br>
- -<br>
First, the goal – getting the world to net zero greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 to stop global warming – is clearer.<br>
<br>
The last climate conference, COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, nearly fell
apart over frustration that international finance wasn’t flowing to
developing countries and that corporations and financial
institutions were greenwashing – making claims they couldn’t back
up. One year on, something is stirring...<br>
- -<br>
Second, how international financial institutions like the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank are working is getting
much-needed attention.<br>
<br>
Over the past 12 months, frustration has grown with the
international financial system, especially with the World Bank
Group’s leadership. Low-income countries have long complained about
having to borrow to finance resilience to climate impacts they
didn’t cause, and they have called for development banks to take
more risk and leverage more private investment for much-needed
projects, including expanding renewable energy.<br>
<br>
That frustration has culminated in pressure for World Bank President
David Malpass to step down. Malpass, nominated by the Trump
administration in 2019, has clung on for now, but he is under
pressure from the U.S., Europe and others to bring forward a new
road map for the World Bank’s response to climate change this year.<br>
- -<br>
Third, more public-private partnerships are being developed to speed
decarbonization and power the clean energy transition.<br>
<br>
The first of these “Just Energy Transition Partnerships,” announced
in 2021, was designed to support South Africa’s transition away from
coal power. It relies on a mix of grants, loans and investments, as
well as risk sharing to help bring in more private sector finance.
Indonesia expects to announce a similar partnership when it hosts
the G-20 summit in late November. Vietnam is working on another, and
Egypt announced a major new partnership at COP27...<br>
- -<br>
Fourth, new rules are emerging to strengthen those voluntary carbon
markets.<br>
<br>
A new set of “high-integrity carbon credit principles” is expected
in 2023. A code of conduct for how corporations can use voluntary
carbon markets to meet their net zero claims has already been
issued, and standards for ensuring that a company’s plans meet the
Paris Agreement’s goals are evolving.<br>
<br>
Incredibly, all this progress is outside the Paris Agreement, which
simply calls for governments to make “finance flows consistent with
a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient
development.”<br>
<br>
Negotiators seem reluctant to mention this widespread reform
movement in the formal text being negotiated at COP27, but walking
through the halls here, they cannot ignore it. It’s been too slow in
coming, but change in the financial system is on the way.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://theconversation.com/4-signs-of-progress-at-the-un-climate-change-summit-194345">https://theconversation.com/4-signs-of-progress-at-the-un-climate-change-summit-194345</a><br>
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<i>[ WAPO - voting pol</i><i>l ]</i><br>
<b>How different groups voted according to exit polls and AP
VoteCast</b><br>
87% of Democrats say CLimate Change is the Most important issue
facing the country - <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/</a>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email">https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email</a><br>
</p>
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<i>[ Facing the traumas ahead with your local Climate Resilience Hub
]</i><br>
<b>WHAT IS A CLIMATE RESILIENCE HUB?</b><br>
Climate Resilience Hubs are community institutions — libraries,
churches, schools, nonprofits, local businesses and others — that
help educate residents about extreme weather preparedness and other
impacts of climate change. If they choose, hubs can also help
residents respond to extreme weather events through material
assistance. For instance, hubs can provide phone charging during a
power outage, provide air conditioning during a heatwave, organize
welfare checks on vulnerable neighbors, or deliver other services.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.climatecrew.org/resilience_hubs?locale=en">https://www.climatecrew.org/resilience_hubs?locale=en</a><br>
- - <br>
<b>Resilience Hubs</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://resilience-hub.org/">http://resilience-hub.org/</a><br>
- -<br>
RESILIENCE HUBS are community-serving facilities augmented to
support residents, coordinate communication, distribute resources,
and reduce carbon pollution while enhancing quality of life.
Resilience Hubs use a physical space – a building and its
surrounding infrastructure – to meet numerous goals, both physical
and social. Resilience hubs are an opportunity to efficiently
improve emergency management, reduce climate pollution and enhance
community resilience. These spaces also provide opportunities for
communities to become more self-determining, socially connected, and
successful in the long-term.<br>
To learn more about the core components that make up a Resilience
Hub, <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://resilience-hub.org/core-components/">http://resilience-hub.org/core-components/</a><br>
To understand more about the opportunity,
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://resilience-hub.org/the-opportunity/">http://resilience-hub.org/the-opportunity/</a><br>
To get involved, <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://resilience-hub.org/get-involved/">http://resilience-hub.org/get-involved/</a><br>
- -<br>
NorCal<br>
Resilience Hubs Initiative<br>
<b> READY FOR ANYTHING</b><br>
The vision of the Resilience Hubs Initiative is to create a network
of community centers, neighborhoods, places of worship and other
trusted community sites that are models for resilience and “ready
for anything” – better prepared for natural disasters, climate
change and other stresses in our community.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://norcalresilience.org/resilient-hub-initiative/">https://norcalresilience.org/resilient-hub-initiative/</a><br>
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<i>[ Opinion NYTimes ] </i><br>
<b>Paying for Climate Damage Isn’t Charity</b><br>
Nov. 11, 2022<br>
By Ani Dasgupta<br>
Mr. Dasgupta is the president and C.E.O. of the World Resources
Institute.<br>
- -<br>
For nearly three decades, the countries most vulnerable to climate
disasters have asked wealthy countries to help them pay for the
damage, only to be stonewalled.<br>
- -<br>
It’s not a matter of charity. Taking action is firmly in rich
countries’ own interests. As climate change bears down, more
factories and ports around the world — the ones that wealthy nations
rely on for their phones, car parts, fast fashion and even food —
will close, devastating global supply chains. Food prices will rise.
More people will be displaced, leading to additional migration
crises. Conflict will grow more likely as people fight over land and
water. The repercussions will destabilize even the most robust
economies. Preventing that outcome now, by financing recovery from
climate damage, will ensure a more stable future for everyone.<br>
<br>
This kind of funding is called “loss and damage,” and it is meant to
address climate impacts that people can’t simply adapt to. The
concept may seem wonky, but it’s not: Loss has a name. Damage has an
address.<br>
- -<br>
Some developed countries claim that humanitarian aid already meets
the need. It does not. Humanitarian aid provides immediate shelter
and food relief after a disaster strikes, but is not available, for
example, to the Fijian islander who must relocate because of rising
seas, or the fisherman in Palau whose livelihood evaporates after
tuna migrate to cooler waters.<br>
<br>
The initial loss and damage commitments are politically important.
Yet the need is exponentially greater — these costs worldwide could
reach $290 billion to $580 billion in 2030, according to one
estimate.<br>
<br>
A new fund to hold parties responsible could change the lives of
billions of people on the front lines of climate change, offering a
path to recovery where none exists today. When a cyclone hits, a
government could quickly apply for funding and distribute it to help
people rebuild destroyed homes. For continuing issues like droughts,
the money could help farmers diversify their skills when their
original livelihoods are no longer viable. But it could also improve
the lives of people in wealthy countries, by building resilience to
global supply chains, by stabilizing the economies where their
businesses import and export goods, by creating the conditions for a
more peaceful world.<br>
<br>
As Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said this week at the
conference, “Countries in the Global North that have caused climate
change and have the greatest access to resources have an obligation
to step up.”<br>
<br>
Any more stonewalling by wealthy nations on finance for loss and
damage could derail the entire climate negotiations here in Egypt.
The world’s ability to tackle climate change hinges on trust between
developed and developing countries, and without concrete progress to
address these severe losses and damage, that trust risks being
broken.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/opinion/environment/un-climate-change-conference-2022-reparations.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/opinion/environment/un-climate-change-conference-2022-reparations.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ ENSO system -- and a bit of science -- nice video ]</i><br>
<b>Eastern Pacific Ocean is cooling NOT warming! Are the climate
models wrong??</b><br>
Just Have a Think<br>
Nov 13, 2022<br>
Climate models have been getting more and more sophisticated as the
power of super computers has increased exponentially over the last
few years. But have all the variables been factored in? A machine is
only as good as the person that builds it, after all. Now a new
research paper has found some very strange temperature differences
in the Eastern Pacific Ocean between climate models and observed
'real world' measurements. So, what's going on?<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtjeNvTwYeU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtjeNvTwYeU</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<i>[ NYTimes science opinion guest essay ]</i><br>
<b>What Happens When a Cascade of Crises Collide?</b><br>
Nov. 13, 2022<br>
It seems as if the world is encountering a “perfect storm” of
simultaneous crises: The coronavirus pandemic is approaching the end
of its third year; the war in Ukraine is threatening to go nuclear;
extreme climate events are afflicting North America, Europe, Asia
and Africa; and inflation is reaching rates unseen in decades and
authoritarianism is on the march around the world. But the storm
metaphor implies that this simultaneity is an unfortunate and
temporary coincidence — that it’s humanity’s bad luck that
everything seems to be going haywire all at once.<br>
<br>
In reality, the likelihood that the current mess is a coincidence is
vanishingly small. We’re almost certainly confronting something far
more persistent and dangerous. We can see the crises of the moment,
but we’re substantially blind to the hidden processes by which those
crises worsen one another — and to the true dangers that may be
enveloping us all.<br>
<br>
Today’s mess is better understood as a global polycrisis, a term the
historian Adam Tooze at Columbia has recently popularized. The term
implies that humanity is dealing with a complex knot of seemingly
distinct but actually deeply entangled crises. Precisely because
these crises are so entangled, they’re causing worldwide damage much
greater than the sum of their individual harms.<br>
- -<br>
The simultaneity of crises we’re experiencing hints that something
else is also happening — risk synchronization. Complex and largely
unrecognized causal links among the world’s economic, social and
ecological systems may be causing many risks to go critical at
nearly the same time. If so, the apparent simultaneity isn’t just a
temporary coincidence; it’s likely to persist and could ultimately
overwhelm the capacity of society to adapt, and push some places
into outright collapse, as we may be witnessing right now in Haiti.<br>
<br>
But we don’t really know because, generally, experts at evaluating
risk have deeply specialized and siloed knowledge — in economics,
for example, or epidemiology. This knowledge rarely translates into
detailed understandings of other systemic risks at play and how they
might affect one another in turn. So, for example, while specialists
in climate change’s economic impacts know something about how
climate heating aggravates economic inequality within and between
societies, they know very little about how it impacts ideological
extremism. And they give virtually no attention to the possibility
that causation might operate in the reverse direction, too — that
inequality and extremism might worsen climate heating.<br>
<br>
Yet it’s likely all these processes are now operating. Climate
heating is harming people’s health and causing weather disasters,
affecting infrastructure and food production all over the planet. In
poorer countries, these changes are constraining economic growth and
widening existing economic inequalities. Lower growth and bigger
inequalities, wherever they happen, intensify ideological extremism.
And that extremism is likely making it harder to build national and
international consensus around cutting greenhouse gas emissions,
allowing the heating problem to steadily worsen.<br>
<br>
These sorts of vicious cycles are what complexity scientists call
self-reinforcing “positive feedbacks.” We tend to see bits and
pieces of a causal loop, but not the whole thing. For that reason,
we urgently need to identify and monitor these feedbacks and ferret
out those still unrecognized to establish whether they are
synchronizing the world’s systemic risks. Businesses do similar
kinds of risk analysis by diagraming causal loops in the dynamic
systems affecting them. In this case, the system is the planet
itself. It goes back to the ecologist Barry Commoner’s first rule of
ecology — everything is connected to everything else — but with a
crucial amendment: some kinds of connections matter a lot more than
others.<br>
<br>
We propose a worldwide scientific collaboration to identify the
causal mechanisms operating among these risks. This collaboration
would consist of a global consortium of nationally funded
institutes. It would be dedicated, first, to studying mechanisms
that are amplifying, accelerating and synchronizing global systemic
risks and, second, to determining practical ways humanity might
intervene. It would also look for ways these feedbacks might be
harnessed to tip key economic, social, and ecological systems toward
better outcomes.<br>
<br>
This consortium would act as the international scientific complement
to the Futures Lab proposed by the United Nations secretary general,
António Guterres, which is intended to integrate humanity’s “work
around forecasting, megatrends and risks.” And it would report
regularly to both the participating governments and the global
public with the explicit aim of galvanizing action to address the
polycrisis.<br>
<br>
It’s vitally important to get this kind of initiative underway.
“Business as usual,” Mr. Guterres has warned, “could result in
breakdown of the global order, into a world of perpetual crisis and
winner-takes-all.”<br>
<br>
Thomas Homer-Dixon is the executive director of the Cascade
Institute at Royal Roads University in British Columbia. Johan
Rockström is a director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research and professor in earth system science at the University of
Potsdam...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/coronavirus-ukraine-climate-inflation.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/coronavirus-ukraine-climate-inflation.html</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at another pundit speaking out -
could have been yesterday ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>November 15, 2012</b></i></font> <br>
November 15, 2012: Speaking at Harvard University on the outcome of
the 2012 presidential election, New York Times columnist David
Brooks notes the ruthlessness of the Koch Brothers, and the power
they wield within the GOP.<br>
<br>
(63:00-66:00)<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xle0m_EdvVI&sns=em">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xle0m_EdvVI&sns=em</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p>======================================= <br>
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more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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