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<font size="+2"><i><b>November 17, 2022</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ the great disruption ]</i><br>
<b>Climate change will clearly disrupt El Niño and La Niña this
decade – 40 years earlier than we thought</b><b><br>
</b>November 15, 2022 <br>
Wenju Cai - Chief Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO,
CSIRO<br>
You’ve probably heard a lot about La Niña lately. This cool weather
pattern is the main driver of heavy rain and flooding that has
devastated much of Australia’s southeast in recent months.<br>
<br>
You may also have heard of El Niño, which alternates with La Niña
every few years. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to much
of Australia.<br>
<br>
Together, the two phases are known as the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation – the strongest and most consequential factor driving
Earth’s weather. And in recent years there has been much scientific
interest in how climate change will influence this global
weather-maker.<br>
<br>
Our new research, released today, sheds light on the question. It
found climate change will clearly influence the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation by 2030 – in just eight years’ time. This has big
implications for how Australians prepare for extreme weather
events...<br>
- -<br>
<b>What we found</b><br>
We examined 70 years of data on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
since 1950, and combined it with 58 of the most advanced climate
models available.<br>
<br>
We found the influence of climate change on El Niño and La Niña
events, in the form of ocean surface temperature changes in the
eastern Pacific, will be detectable by 2030. This is four decades
earlier than previously thought.<br>
<br>
Scientists already knew climate change was affecting the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation. But because the oscillation is itself so
complex and variable, it’s been hard to identify where the change is
occurring most strongly.<br>
<br>
However, our study shows the effect of climate change, manifesting
as changes in ocean surface temperature in the tropical eastern
Pacific, will be obvious and unambiguous within about eight years.<br>
<br>
So what does all this mean for Australia? Warming of the eastern
Pacific Ocean, fuelled by climate change, will cause stronger El
Niño events. When this happens, rain bands are drawn away from the
western Pacific where Australia is located. That’s likely to mean
more droughts and dry conditions in Australia.<br>
<br>
It’s also likely to bring more rain to the eastern Pacific, which
spans the Pacific coast of Central America from southern Mexico to
northern Peru.<br>
<br>
Strong El Niño events are often followed by strong and prolonged La
Niñas. So that will mean cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean,
bringing the rain band back towards Australia – potentially leading
to more heavy rain and flooding of the kind we’ve seen in recent
months.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-clearly-disrupt-el-nino-and-la-nina-this-decade-40-years-earlier-than-we-thought-194529">https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-clearly-disrupt-el-nino-and-la-nina-this-decade-40-years-earlier-than-we-thought-194529</a><br>
<p> - -</p>
<i>[ a 7 year old YouTube video helps with understanding ]</i><br>
<b>Understanding ENSO</b><br>
Bureau of Meteorology<br>
418,260 views Dec 15, 2014<br>
Improve your understanding of the El Niño and La Niña and their
impacts on our climate and weather with our new Understanding ENSO
video <br>
<br>
This video explains what El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is, how
the cycle works including the science behind the phases, and the
potential impacts on Australia’s climate and weather.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ posted in Nature Communications ]</i><br>
Published: 15 November 2022<br>
<b>Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El
Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate</b><br>
Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Zhao
Jing, Bolan Gan, Yun Yang, Shujun Li, Shengpeng Wang, Zhaohui Chen
& Michael J. McPhaden <br>
Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 6616 (2022) Cite
this article<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm
events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and
strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct
impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming,
models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability
of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal
variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find
increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6,
more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately
four decades earlier than that previously suggested without
separating the two regimes. The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results
from a stronger increase in EP-ENSO rainfall response, which
boosts the signal of increased SST variability, and is enhanced by
ENSO non-linear atmospheric feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST
variability under greenhouse warming is likely to emerge first in
the eastern than central Pacific, and decades earlier than
previously anticipated.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Basic solutions offered at COP27 ]</i><br>
<b>Pathways to Reducing Black Carbon and Methane Emissions Impacting
Arctic Climate and Air Quality</b><br>
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative<br>
Nov. 16, 2022<br>
499 subscribers <br>
Pathways to Reducing Black Carbon and Methane Emissions Impacting
Arctic Climate and Air Quality<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft6Lxsck9ac">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft6Lxsck9ac</a><br>
<br>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<i>[ innovation will help us stop UNDER-counting methane emissions ]</i><br>
<b>Al Gore’s New Tool Can Zoom in on the Biggest Polluters in Your
Town</b><br>
A map from Climate TRACE can pinpoint greenhouse gas emissions from
various sectors, down to the individual facility.<br>
By Molly Taft<br>
Nov 16, 2022<br>
If you’ve ever wondered how much methane the landfill in your
neighborhood emits, there’s now a way to potentially find out. A
promising new tool can zoom in on spots around the world in various
industries to measure just how much greenhouse gases those locations
and facilities are emitting.<br>
<br>
The mapping tool, released last week at COP27 by the organization
Climate TRACE, uses hundreds of satellites, thousands of mounted
sensors, and various artificial intelligence models to measure the
global emissions of different greenhouse gases from major sectors,
including oil and gas production, waste disposal and management,
agriculture, forestry and land use, transportation and power.<br>
<br>
The tool is remarkable in its specificity: It can trace emissions
from individual sites like landfills, power plants, and cattle
farms, giving both an overall picture of global emissions from
certain industries as well as incredibly detailed information on
specific locations. Using the map, you can zoom in on emissions of
carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—as well as all of those
emissions together—by different sectors, and see where some of our
biggest greenhouse gas problems are coming from.<br>
<br>
The level of granular detail you can access using this tool is
really something. Want to find the landfill with the most CO2
emissions in the U.S.? That’d be a facility in Michigan. How about
the mining operation with the most CO2 emissions in the world? It’s
an iron mine in Australia. The biggest single source of agricultural
methane emissions from cattle worldwide? A beef farm in Texas. Even
emissions from moving entities like cargo ships can be tracked. If
the interactive map isn’t your jam, all of the data and associated
methodology are available for download, so you can play around with
Excel files of cement emissions to your heart’s content.<br>
<br>
“Of course, the world has long known what the overall amount of
greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere is,” Al Gore, one of the
founding members of the coalition, told Protocol. “What’s different
about this [database] is the accurate apportioning of who’s
responsible for what and the granularity that allows us a focus on
specific emissions sources.” Gore told Protocol he had “no doubt”
that the data “will be put to a lot of use in negotiations for
sure.”..<br>
The entire dataset put together, Climate TRACE says, reveals some
pretty staggering findings. The top 500 sites with the largest
emissions in the world, which include individual power plants, oil
and gas production fields, and other high-emitter locations, are a
tiny fraction of the data but represent 14% of the world’s emissions
in 2021, more than all the emissions of the U.S. About half of the
biggest 50 emitters, the data show, are oil and gas production
fields.<br>
<br>
There’s a whole lot of utility to having a wealth of third-party
data like this available on a public forum. A lot of industries
self-report their emissions, which can lead to some big gaps between
what companies claim is going on and the reality. A report released
by the International Energy Agency last year found that the fossil
fuel industry is especially bad at this, undercounting its methane
emissions by as much as 70%. Getting a more accurate third-party
picture of where emissions are actually coming from is the first
step in increased regulations to bring those emissions down.<br>
<br>
But as Climate TRACE notes, pinpointing emissions from a specific
location is just the start of figuring out where to assign blame.<br>
<br>
“Consider something as ‘simple’ as an individual power plant and its
owner,” the organization said in a release posted to its site.
“Should the emissions be assigned to the immediate owner? To a
parent company if it’s wholly owned? To equity investors? To the
offtaker of the power, whether a utility or another entity? These
are tough decisions, but we can’t even consider making such
decisions if we can’t map emissions down to specific sources.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://gizmodo.com/al-gores-new-tool-can-zoom-in-on-emissions-in-your-town-1849786018">https://gizmodo.com/al-gores-new-tool-can-zoom-in-on-emissions-in-your-town-1849786018</a><br>
- -<br>
<i>[ Here it is -- try it out for your area (it may be slow,
popular or targeted) ]</i><br>
<b>CLIMATE TRACE</b><br>
INDEPENDENT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TRACKING<br>
We harness satellite imagery and other forms of remote sensing,
artificial intelligence, and collective data science expertise to
track human-caused GHG emissions with unprecedented detail and
speed.<br>
<br>
Climate TRACE’s emissions inventory is the world’s first
comprehensive accounting of GHG emissions based primarily on direct,
independent observation. Our innovative, open, and accessible
approach relies on advances in technology to fill critical knowledge
gaps for all decision makers that rely on the patchwork system of
self-reporting that serves as the basis for most existing emissions
inventories.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://climatetrace.org/map">https://climatetrace.org/map</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Cryopsphere futures presented with Jason Box at COP27 ]</i><br>
<b>Antarctica and Greenland: Nearing Thresholds from Different Ends</b><br>
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative<br>
Nov 15, 2022<br>
Antarctica and Greenland: Nearing Thresholds from Different Ends<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://youtu.be/UF-u9Tkk-cE?t=1847">https://youtu.be/UF-u9Tkk-cE?t=1847</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ More fundamentals on the loss of the Arctic ]</i><br>
<b>If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World</b><br>
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8EegVhxYY8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8EegVhxYY8</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ looking back to the ancient times of 2016 ]</i><br>
<b>DEAN WALKER AND PETER MELTON w/ KATHERINE HAYHOE - The early days
of facing climate change - 2016</b><br>
The Poetry of Predicament<br>
Nov 14, 2022<br>
About five years ago Peter Melton and I were guests on the Immense
Possibilities show of our friend, Jeff Golden, here in Southern
Oregon. <br>
<br>
Jeff had also prerecorded an interview with Katherine Hayhoe. <br>
<br>
Kind of sad how little is different now re the conversations and
actions re the human-caused destruction of both Earth and Human
Systems.<br>
Oh well...<br>
enjoy.<br>
___ <br>
Living Resilience: <br>
Offering transformative support and resources to people <br>
bravely facing the human-caused Collapse of Earth and Human Systems.<br>
A shorter way to say it: <br>
Profound Support and Resources Facing Troubled Times.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://living-resilience.mn.co">https://living-resilience.mn.co</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMQJbQh6aWo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMQJbQh6aWo</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i>[ Commonsense innovations - stores heat - FUTURE PLANET |
RENEWABLE ENERGY ]</i><br>
<b>How a sand battery could transform clean energy</b><br>
By Erika Benke<br>
3rd November 2022<br>
A new way of storing renewable energy is providing clean heat
through the long Nordic nights.<br>
- -<br>
The renewable energy powers a resistance heater which heats up the
air inside the sand. Inside the battery, this hot air is
circulated by a fan around the sand through heat exchange pipes.<br>
<br>
Thick insulation surrounds the sand, keeping the temperature
inside the battery at 600C (1,112F), even when it is freezing
outside. "We don't want to lose any heat; the average winter
temperature is below 0C (32F) in Kankanpää," says Ville Kivioja,
lead scientist at Polar Night Energy, who monitors the battery's
performance online.<br>
<br>
The battery stores 8 MWh of thermal energy when full. When energy
demand rises, the battery discharges about 200 kW of power through
the heat-exchange pipes: that's enough to provide heating and hot
water for about 100 homes and a public swimming pool in
Kankaanpää, supplementing power from the grid. The battery is
charged overnight when the electricity prices are lower.<br>
<br>
It's a low-maintenance system, says Kivioja. The company uses
cheap, low-quality sand that's been rejected by builders instead
of high quality river-sand which is used in vast quantities for
construction, leading to a global shortage.<br>
<br>
"There's no wear and tear involved with the [heat exchange] pipes
and the sand. The fan is the only moving part and it's easy to
replace if necessary," says Kivioja.<br>
<br>
Sand is a very effective medium for retaining heat over a long
period, storing power for months at a time. And there are other
benefits too. "The sand has a very long lifetime: it can heat up
and cool off any number of times," says Kivioja. "It will get
denser after a while so needs less space. At that point we can add
more sand."...<br>
- -<br>
In 2016, while doing research for his engineering Master's degree,
Eronen was looking into water-based storage systems for renewable
energy. But while reading an article about traditional Finnish
fireplaces, made from stone and sand, Eronen had a lightbulb
moment.<br>
<br>
"It got me thinking: would a solid material, rather than water, be
more suitable for storing solar and wind energy?" Eronen says.<br>
Together with Ylönen, he started developing the sand battery
prototype. Having successfully tested their pilot battery in
Eronen's grandfather's garden near Tampere, the pair recruited
their childhood friends from the athletics club to start Polar
Night Energy. In July, they installed the first commercial sand
battery at the Vatajankoski power plant in Kankaanpää.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Storing green energy</b><br>
The innovation has generated a flurry of excitement around the
globe. "My phone is constantly ringing and I have thousands of
unread emails," says Eronen.<br>
<br>
A small commercial application of a new energy storage system
rarely becomes a hot topic, but the sand battery has attracted
attention for its potential to even out the power supply from
renewable sources (see The search for steady supply box).<br>
<br>
Viable storage of solar and wind energy is especially critical for
Nordic countries which have long hours of darkness and an
increased need for heat in the winter, but extended hours of
sunlight in the summer...<br>
- -<br>
One big problem with lithium-ion batteries, which we use to power
our laptops, phones and electric vehicles, is that they
continuously degrade, even when they are not in use, says
Pongrácz. "There's no chemical reaction in sand batteries so they
don't go through a similar process of ageing," says Pongrácz.<br>
<br>
Lithium batteries are not suitable for large-scale storage
applications, says Yulong Ding, director of the Birmingham Centre
for Energy Storage in the UK, adding that they are also inherently
flammable.<br>
<br>
Then there are the environmental concerns. "Lithium has a much
bigger environmental impact than sand," says Pongrácz. For every
tonne of refined lithium produced, the equivalent of between
around three and nine tonnes of CO2 is emitted, depending on how
it is extracted.<br>
<br>
But the Polar Night Energy team face some big challenges: can they
scale up their technology to really make a difference and can they
use it to generate significant amounts of electricity in addition
to heat?<br>
<br>
There are of course limitations, experts note. "A sand battery
stores five to 10 times less energy [per unit volume] than
traditional chemical batteries," says Dan Gladwin from the
department of electronic and electrical engineering at the
University of Sheffield in the UK...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221102-how-a-sand-battery-could-transform-clean-energy">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221102-how-a-sand-battery-could-transform-clean-energy</a><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at an elected ogre ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>November 17, 2006</b></i></font> <br>
November 17, 2006: MSNBC's Keith Olbermann calls out Oklahoma
Senator James Inhofe for simultaneously trafficking in climate
denial and blasphemy:<br>
<br>
"But our winner, Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, who until January
will remain the chairman of the Senate Committee on the Environment
and Public Works. This morning he declared that any global warming
is owed to 'natural causes' and is 'due to the sun.'<br>
<br>
'God’s still up there,' he added.<br>
<br>
"So, Senator, you’re blaming global warming on God?<br>
<br>
"Senator James 'Is it just me or is it hot in here' Inhofe, Friday’s
'Worst Person in the World.'"<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15814614/ns/msnbc-countdown_with_keith_olbermann/t/worst-person-world-sen-james-inhofe/">http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15814614/ns/msnbc-countdown_with_keith_olbermann/t/worst-person-world-sen-james-inhofe/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<p>======================================= <br>
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lacking, here are a few </span>daily summaries<span
class="moz-txt-tag"> of global warming news - email delivered*</span></b>
<br>
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It also provides original reporting and commentary on climate
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largely unexposed. 5 weekday <br>
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more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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