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<font size="+2"><i><b>November 21, 2022</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ UN Climate Change tweet ] </i><br>
<b>UN Climate Change</b><br>
@UNFCCC<br>
#COP27 reached a breakthrough agreement on a new “Loss and Damage”
fund for vulnerable countries.<br>
It also resulted in countries delivering a package of decisions that
reaffirmed their commitment to limit global temperature rise to
1.5°C.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/UNFCCC/status/1594242371696345089">https://twitter.com/UNFCCC/status/1594242371696345089</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ Official UN Climate Press Release ]</i><br>
<b>COP27 Reaches Breakthrough Agreement on New “Loss and Damage”
Fund for Vulnerable Countries</b><br>
20 November 2022<br>
UN Climate Change News, 20 November 2022 – The United Nations
Climate Change Conference COP27 closed today with a breakthrough
agreement to provide “loss and damage” funding for vulnerable
countries hit hard by climate disasters.<br>
<br>
“This outcome moves us forward,” said Simon Stiell, UN Climate
Change Executive Secretary. “We have determined a way forward on a
decades-long conversation on funding for loss and damage –
deliberating over how we address the impacts on communities whose
lives and livelihoods have been ruined by the very worst impacts of
climate change.”<br>
<br>
Set against a difficult geopolitical backdrop, COP27 resulted in
countries delivering a package of decisions that reaffirmed their
commitment to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels. The package also strengthened action by
countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the
inevitable impacts of climate change, as well as boosting the
support of finance, technology and capacity building needed by
developing countries.<br>
<br>
Creating a specific fund for loss and damage marked an important
point of progress, with the issue added to the official agenda and
adopted for the first time at COP27...<br>
-- -<br>
“We have a series of milestones ahead. We must pull together, with
resolve, through all processes, may they be national, regional, or
others such as the G20. Every single milestone matters and builds
momentum,” said Stiell. “The next step for change is just around the
corner, with the United Arab Emirates’ stewardship of the First
Global Stocktake. For the very first time we will take stock of the
implementation of the Paris Agreement. It will independently
evaluate the progress we have made and if our goals are adequate. It
will inform what everybody, every single day, everywhere in the
world, needs to do, to avert the climate crisis.”<br>
<br>
Stiell reminded delegates in the closing plenary that the world is
in a critical decade for climate action. A stark report from UN
Climate Change underpinned his remarks, as well as discussions
throughout the two-week conference. According to the report,
implementation of current pledges by national governments put the
world on track for a 2.5°C warmer world by the end of the century.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that
greenhouse gas emissions must decline 45% by 2030 to limit global
warming to 1.5°C...<br>
- -<br>
The conference heard many announcements:<br>
<blockquote>Countries launched a package of 25 new collaborative
actions in five key areas: power, road transport, steel, hydrogen
and agriculture.<br>
<br>
UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced a USD 3.1 billion
plan to ensure everyone on the planet is protected by early
warning systems within the next five years.<br>
<br>
The UN Secretary-General’s High-Level Expert Group on Net-Zero
Commitments published a report at COP27, serving as a how-to guide
to ensure credible, accountable net-zero pledges by industry,
financial institutions, cities and regions.<br>
<br>
A G7-led plan called the Global Shield Financing Facility was
launched at COP27 to provide funding to countries suffering
climate disasters.<br>
<br>
Announcing a total of USD 105.6 million in new funding, Denmark,
Finland, Germany, Ireland, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the
Walloon Region of Belgium, stressed the need for even more support
for the Global Environment Facility funds targeting the immediate
climate adaptation needs of low-lying and low-income states.<br>
<br>
The new Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership, announced at
the G20 Summit held in parallel with COP27, will mobilize USD 20
billion over the next three to five years to accelerate a just
energy transition.<br>
<br>
Important progress was made on forest protection with the launch
of the Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership, which aims to
unite action by governments, businesses and community leaders to
halt forest loss and land degradation by 2030.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries">https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries</a><br>
<p><br>
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<i>[ Novel application --- use the motion of the ocean to desalinate
water video ]</i><br>
<b>Zero Energy Cost Fresh Water. How do they do that?</b><br>
Just Have a Think<br>
Nov 20, 2022<br>
By 2050, fresh water may be inaccessible to as many as a billion
people. Current desalination methods will be using vast amounts of
energy to keep up by then, producing no less than 5% of total
global greenhouse gas emissions, not to mention untold harm to
marine ecosystems from outflow of concentrated brine solution into
the open sea. If we could solve those problems then the future would
look a bit brighter. And now we can...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5RG13AG4Bo">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5RG13AG4Bo</a><br>
- -<br>
<i>[company web site]</i><br>
What we do<br>
We combine the ocean’s seawater with its own wave energy to provide
freshwater to coastal populations & industries without
compromising the environment.<br>
Our solution increases resilience to climate change while reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and water costs.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.onekawater.com/">https://www.onekawater.com/</a><br>
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<br>
<i>[ MIT says ]</i><br>
<b>These three charts show who is most to blame for climate change</b><br>
Getting to the bottom of which countries have contributed most to
climate change is complicated, but a few pieces of data can help.<br>
By Casey Crownhart <br>
November 18, 2022<br>
- -<br>
Central to these negotiations is a question: Who is responsible for
climate change? The issue is complicated, but a few pieces of data
about current and past emissions can begin to answer it. <br>
<br>
Greenhouse-gas emissions reached their highest-ever level in 2021,
with global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels topping 36
billion metric tons. China is currently the highest emitter,
followed by the US. Combined emissions from the European Union are
the next largest, with India and Russia following.<br>
<br>
Data on current emissions doesn’t tell the whole story on climate
responsibility, though. “Countries are massively unequal in terms of
the extent to which they’ve caused climate change,” says Taryn
Fransen, a senior fellow in the global climate program at the World
Resources Institute, a research nonprofit. <br>
<br>
Climate change is the result of the total concentration of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And carbon dioxide, the primary
greenhouse gas driving climate change, stays in the atmosphere for
hundreds of years. <br>
<br>
So researchers also look at historical emissions: the sum of a
country’s contributions over time. The US is by far the largest
historical emitter, responsible for over 20% of all emissions, and
the EU is close behind. China falls to third when climate pollution
is tallied this way, with about half the US’s total contribution. <br>
<br>
The US and EU’s long history with fossil fuels is what puts those
regions at the heart of discussions about loss and damages,
especially because burning fossil fuels helped them grow. “Economies
that have been strong for many years tend to be strong because they
benefited from those early greenhouse-gas emissions,” Fransen says.
It’s clear that the richest countries in the world had, and continue
to have, an outsize climate impact, she says.<br>
<br>
<b> </b><b>Future responsibility</b><br>
Total emissions can help inform decisions about who should pay what
for climate damages. But addressing climate pollution in developing
nations where emissions are rising fast even though they have ben
low historically will also be key to slowing global warming. “We
cannot solve climate change without China and India and every other
major emitter dramatically reducing their emissions,” Fransen says.
Some nations might need more time to reach net-zero emissions, but
they’ll eventually need to get there to meet global climate goals. <br>
<br>
It’s also important to consider per capita emissions, Fransen says.
For example, it’s clear that India, while one of the world’s top
emitters, is still responsible for far less per person than other
emissions leaders. <br>
<br>
In a globalized world, assigning blame to individual countries for
climate change isn’t always straightforward. International
transportation, for example, isn’t typically included in any one
country’s emissions total.<br>
<br>
This issue also arises for manufacturing hubs like China, says
Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at the Center for International
Climate Research in Norway. Under international definitions,
countries are generally assigned responsibility for emissions within
their borders, even if they’re making products that will get used
elsewhere, Andrew says. <br>
<br>
Understanding where emissions are coming from, and how that’s
changed over time, can give us a clearer picture of how to cut
emissions and deal with the effects of climate change. But any one
piece of data will likely fall short of representing the urgent,
messy reality of the task ahead. Put simply, Andrew says, “there’s
no easy answer.” <br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063443/responsible-climate-change-charts/">https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063443/responsible-climate-change-charts/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ From Inside Climate News ]</i><br>
<b>How Should We Think About the End of the World as We Know it?</b><br>
“Yes, it’s a catastrophe,” Elizabeth Weil writes of climate change.
“And no, you would not be better off if you continued to tell
yourself otherwise.”<br>
By Kiley Bense<br>
November 19, 2022<br>
<br>
In the 14th century, the Italian poet Petrarch wrote a letter to a
friend in Avignon, describing his sense of “foreboding” after an
earthquake shook the foundations of Rome’s churches. “What should I
do first, lament or be frightened?” he asked. “Everywhere there is
cause for fear, everywhere reason for grief.” <br>
<br>
The earthquake was only one in a series of calamities endured in the
poet’s lifetime to that point: floods, storms, fires, wars and
finally, “the plague from heaven that is unequaled through the
ages,” the dreaded Black Death, which would eventually kill more
than a third of Europe’s population. <br>
<br>
In his letter, Petrarch was distressed by the suffering of the
present, but he was equally worried about what it meant for the
future. His fears were “not only about the quaking of land but its
effect on minds.” <br>
- -<br>
"In the meantime, any lingering traces of cynicism will vanish in
the town of Crawfordsville, where children in the Waco school
district will eventually turn on computers and study under lights
powered 90 percent by solar energy. Inspired by local farmers, who
now use solar energy to help power some of their operations, the
district’s move to solar energy will not only cut carbon emissions
but also result in enough savings to keep open the town’s once
financially threatened school doors."<br>
<br>
Six hundred years after Petrarch grappled with the apocalyptic
tremors of his own time, the effect of catastrophe on minds is the
subject of several new articles published in the last few weeks by
The New York Times, The Washington Post, and New York Magazine, all
of them concerned with the end of the world as we know it. They’re
tackling a question at the heart of our collective (in)ability to
confront an existential threat: How should we think about—and
through–the global disaster that is climate change? <br>
<br>
After years of rising sea levels, warming temperatures, and mass
extinction, why has this question bubbled to the American cultural
surface now? For one perspective, I asked Elizabeth Weil, whose
essay “How to Live in a Catastrophe” appeared in New York Magazine
last week. She believes the flurry of writing on the topic is
connected to the increasingly devastating extreme weather of the
2020s. “The idea that we weren’t already in the middle of the
climate crisis just fell away,” she said. “You couldn’t deny it
anymore.” <br>
<br>
Since 2020, the Doomsday Clock has ticked ever closer to midnight.
We are in a moment that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists calls
“both perilous and unsustainable,” listing among its reasons for
alarm the fallout from the climate crisis, fears of nuclear war in
Ukraine, and the Covid-19 pandemic. On climate change, the
Scientists’ verdict on humanity’s response is “lots of words,
relatively little action,” an assessment that negotiations at COP27
have done little to prove wrong.<br>
<br>
Ranking climate change as number two on his list of “Top 10
Existential Worries,” Joel Achenbach confesses in the Washington
Post that he is “cautiously optimistic,” positing that how you think
about existential threats comes down to your faith in humanity–or
lack thereof. “Do you believe, fundamentally, in the human race?” he
asks. <br>
<br>
Writing “Beyond Catastrophe” in the Times, David Wallace-Wells also
finds reasons for optimism in 2022. With the aid of newly cheap
renewable energy and a “truly global political mobilization,”
Wallace-Wells envisions “a new climate reality” for humanity and the
planet that will make true neither “the most terrifying predictions”
nor “the most hopeful.” <br>
<br>
In her essay, Weil consults activists and scholars, searching for
strategies that others have deployed when confronted with the
cataclysms of the past. “This isn’t the first time in human history
when the world has been completely overwhelming,” she said, of her
reasons for writing the piece. (Petrarch would agree: he describes
the late 1340s as a period of such misery that “new forms of evil
are inconceivable.”)<br>
<br>
Weil’s piece considers the “intelligent sabotage” advocated by
thinkers like the Swedish eco-Marxist Andreas Malm, author of “How
to Blow Up a Pipeline,” as well as the “tools of religion” advanced
by ecophilosopher Timothy Morton, and the “ritual comfort” of
performances like a glacier funeral staged by anthropologists Cymene
Howe and Dominic Boyer in Iceland in 2019. They installed a plaque,
titled “A letter to the future,” with this message:<br>
<br>
This monument is to acknowledge<br>
<br>
that we know what is happening<br>
<br>
and what needs to be done.<br>
<br>
Only you know if we did it.<br>
<br>
Knowing what needs to be done is one thing; having the will to do it
is another. We are not experiencing this catastrophe in the same way
or at the same pace. Some of us are still in the anger and
bargaining phases of climate grief, while others have moved well
past acceptance. <br>
<br>
On a trip to Iceland this August, I stood on the edge of an
aquamarine lagoon that is fed by the melting Breiðamerkurjökull
glacier. Icebergs–glittery fragments broken off from the dying
glacier–floated by, banded with volcanic ash, a record of Iceland’s
ancient eruptions. I asked a few of the Icelanders who were working
there as tour guides how they felt about this place. To me, the
scene was both transfixing and tragic; the lagoon exists like this
because of climate change, and for all its dazzling beauty, it is
also a disturbing portent. But the Icelanders didn’t see it like I
did, maybe because in their country it has long been impossible to
ignore how rapidly we are shredding the fabric of the natural world.
They do not have the luxury of shock. Watching the crowds of
tourists snapping photos of seals frolicking in the water, their
response was stoic. “This is just how it is,” one of them said. <br>
<br>
The truth about catastrophe is that even in its tumultuous midst, we
mostly forge ahead, sloughing off our terror. We adapt, we rebuild,
and we convince ourselves that the fates of our neighbors will not
befall us. When everything familiar is crumbling around us, our
first instinct is so often to cling to any scraps of normalcy that
remain. You could see this instinct clearly in the early months of
the Covid-19 pandemic; around the world, panic soon gave way to grim
routine. <br>
<br>
On the other hand, as Weil points out in her piece, there is nothing
irrational about catastrophizing when you’re living through a
genuine catastrophe. “Yes, it’s a catastrophe,” she writes. “And no,
you would not be better off if you continued to tell yourself
otherwise.” In order to avoid the pitfalls of denial and despair, we
will need to chart a practical path through the ambiguous abyss that
lies between optimism and doom. “We’re going to have to live with
hope,” Weil said. “And we’re going to have to live with a lot of
fear.” To safely evacuate a burning building and put the fire out,
you need to communicate the urgency of the emergency; you also need
to project confidence and encourage calm. <br>
<br>
This is another way to think through catastrophe: seek solace in the
clarity of action. Weil recounts Günther Anders’ reimagining of the
Great Flood, where Noah appears before the people in mourning dress,
telling them that they have already died because total catastrophe
will soon be upon them. That night a carpenter comes to his workshop
and offers to build an ark so that Noah’s terrible vision “may
become false.” A future that seemed preordained is altered through
work. <br>
<br>
Anders’ story is like the common proverb that warns against the
folly of relying only on faith when you are in danger. “Call on God,
but row away from the rocks,” is one version in English, though
similar warnings exist in other languages and cultures. Faith in the
human spirit might be a necessary balm to the mind in catastrophe,
but balm alone can’t save us from ourselves. Hope without action is
just a wish. <br>
<br>
In another of Petrarch’s letters, he comforts his correspondent with
a quotation from Virgil. “Hold on,” he writes, “and find salvation
in the hope of better things.” Our hopes for the future should not
be pinned on preserving the tattered, unequal status quo. “Change is
scary, and big change is really scary, but our world is not perfect.
It’s very, very, very far from it,” Weil said in our interview.
“What if change truly does bring us to a better place? Even though
we’re terrified?”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19112022/warming-trends-how-should-we-think-about-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/">https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19112022/warming-trends-how-should-we-think-about-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Deep and serious doomscrolling - from Radio Ecoshock - text
and audio from October ]</i><br>
<b>Climate Endgame</b><br>
Posted on October 26, 2022, by Radio Ecoshock<br>
Climate catastrophes continue to mount. New paper “Climate Endgame:
Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios” with Lead author
Luke Kemp. Then Greenland ice expert Jason Box warns Earth is
already committed to at least another foot of sea level rise, from
Greenland alone, no matter what we do.<br>
I’m Alex Smith. Welcome to Radio Ecoshock.<br>
Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_221026_Show.mp3">https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_221026_Show.mp3</a><br>
or Lo-Fi <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_221026_LoFi.mp3">https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_221026_LoFi.mp3</a><br>
- <br>
<b>LUKE KEMP: CLIMATE ENDGAME</b><br>
Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. Climate disasters
struck repeatedly this year, with eye-popping heat records across
the Northern Hemisphere. Scientists ask: why don’t we study the
harsher reality. What happens if planet Earth smashes past the two
degrees C, going over 3 degrees by the end of this century? That
possibility is growing, but officials and institutions are still in
denial.<br>
<br>
We have a landmark new paper titled: “Climate Endgame: Exploring
catastrophic climate change scenarios”. The Abstract for this paper
asks: Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide
societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? So far,
mainstream institutions have avoided asking those questions. Now
they must.<br>
<br>
The authors include former advisor to Angela Merkl (and the Pope)
Joachim Schellnhuber, plus Radio Ecoshock guests Johan Rockstrom
from Sweden and the UK’s Timothy Lenton. These are senior serious
scientists with a warning: we gravely underestimated climate risks.
Now have to consider global warming beyond 3 degrees C.<br>
<br>
From the UK, we reached the lead author, Dr. Luke Kemp. With his PhD
in International Relations from Australian National University, Luke
is a Research Associate at the Cambridge Centre for the Study of
Existential Risk.<br>
<br>
Listen to or download this half hour interview with Dr. Luke Kemp in
CD Quality <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_Kemp.mp3">https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_Kemp.mp3</a> <br>
or Lo-Fi <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_Kemp_LoFi.mp3">https://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_Kemp_LoFi.mp3</a><br>
Each report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gets
worse, with more frightening predictions. Kemp explains why this
group of experts say they have not gone far enough. In 2019, Kemp’s
co-author Tim Lenton led a study into “tipping cascades”. But has
this possibility been digested into institutional science?<br>
<br>
<b>“irreversible transition to Hothouse Earth”</b><br>
The “Climate Endgame” paper also worries about an “irreversible
transition to Hothouse Earth”. Few of us can imagine what is
Hothouse Earth is like. And the science of physics and natural
systems suggest there is a point where humans could not stop that
march to a hotter planet. Unlike many other works, this paper
includes an open discussion on the possibility of mass casualties
due to climate-driven extremes, including a loss of 10% or even 25%
of the current human population<br>
<br>
Of course humans will react to continuing climate-driven threats.
Maybe we will make it worse. Luke Kemp also published on the
possibilities and pitfalls of deploying sulfur particles into the
air to create a temporary cooling shade over Earth, or parts of the
planet. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a type of
geoengineering called “SRM” for Solar Radiation Management. In our
interview, Kemp relays some serious implications and possible
downsides to SRM. In my opinion, humans will probably become
desperate and willful enough to try almost anything to stop climate
catastrophe – probably within a decade?<br>
<br>
SEE: A. Tang, L. Kemp, A fate worse than warming? Stratospheric
aerosol injection and catastrophic risk. Front. Clim. Sci.3, 1–17
(2021).<br>
<br>
This new Climate Endgame paper in the Proceedings of the National
Academy describes four reasons we should worry more about climate
catastrophe, not just climate change. One is the history of previous
transitions back and forth from icehouse Earth to hothouse Earth.
Second, they say: “…climate change could directly trigger other
catastrophic risks, such as international conflict, or exacerbate
infectious disease spread, and spillover risk.”<br>
<br>
This is a kind of breakthrough in this paper. Previously, scientists
tried to provide scenarios based on natural systems, geology and so
forth. It was like saying: “Here is the science. How humans react is
your problem. That is beyond science.” But when we need to predict
complex systems, human actors are obviously major actors in the
climate future. For those who want to try long-range plans for
governments and corporations, we cannot pretend that humans are not
part of equations for possible futures. This team investigates ways
to include the interplay of human civilization and natural systems.<br>
<br>
Now the world is so-interconnected, financial experts worry about a
global financial crash as never before seen. Or maybe a nuclear war
erupts. Can we handle those human crisis – even while a climate
shift is delivering repeated extreme weather bombs, higher seas, and
drought?<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>COMPOUND HAZARDS LEFT OUT</b><br>
From the “Climate Endgame” paper:<br>
<br>
“...this is how risk unfolds in the real world. For example, a
cyclone destroys electrical infrastructure, leaving a population
vulnerable to an ensuing deadly heat wave (4). Recently, we have
seen compound hazards emerge between climate change and the COVID-19
pandemic. As the IPCC notes, climate risks are becoming more complex
and difficult to manage, and are cascading across regions and
sectors.”<br>
<br>
<b>HOW FAR IS WAY TOO FAR?</b><br>
From the “Climate Endgame” paper:<br>
<br>
“UN Secretary-General António Guterres called climate change an
‘existential threat.’ Academic studies have warned that warming
above 5 °C is likely to be ‘beyond catastrophic’ , and above 6 °C
constitutes ‘an indisputable global catastrophe’.”<br>
<br>
<b>THE CULTURE OF UNDERESTIMATION</b><br>
From the “Climate Endgame” paper:<br>
<br>
“Why the focus on lower-end warming and simple risk analyses? One
reason is the benchmark of the international targets: the Paris
Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2 °C, with an
aspiration of 1.5 °C. Another reason is the culture of climate
science to “err on the side of least drama”, to not to be alarmists,
which can be compounded by the consensus processes of the IPCC.
Complex risk assessments, while more realistic, are also more
difficult to do.”<br>
<br>
This paper also provides a chart defining terms like “risk cascade”,
“Extinction risk”, “Societal collapse” and “Global catastrophic
threat”. We are just beginning the language needed just to describe
novel risks in a destabilized future.<br>
<br>
MIT Professor Daniel Rothman published two key papers on thresholds
of catastrophe and extinction. I interviewed him after each one. See
my notes and links below for those.<br>
<br>
Unrelenting heating, weather disruption, and human conflict – all
take place on a planetary platform which repeatedly goes to
life-threatening extremes with or without humans. What happens if we
add natural shocks, like multiple eruptions of volcanoes, or
long-cycle weather variations, to the rough and ready mix we already
experienced these past few years? Those big ticket natural events
might cool Earth down for a few years (volcanoes) before even more
heat emerges from our continuing emissions. Or a true
once-in-a-hundred-year super El Nino might push us to a new hot
stage within a year.<br>
<br>
Those are just some of the reasons we need real emergency action to
slash fossil emissions as soon as possible. This is a great
must-read Open Access paper in one the top journals, PNAS, the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. In conclusion, this
group of noteworthy scientists are calling for “An IPCC Special
Report on Catastrophic Climate Change” as a way to kick-start global
research into real hazards of rapid climate change.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ecoshock.org/2022/10/climate-endgame.html">https://www.ecoshock.org/2022/10/climate-endgame.html</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Paper mentioned above -- from PNAS Open ]</i><br>
<b>Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios</b><br>
Luke Kemp <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7447-4335">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7447-4335</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ltk27@cam.ac.uk">ltk27@cam.ac.uk</a>, Chi
Xu <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1841-9032">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1841-9032</a>, Joanna Depledge, +7, and
Timothy M. Lenton <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498Authors">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498Authors</a> Info
& Affiliations<br>
Edited by Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA; received May 20, 2021; accepted March 25, 2022<br>
August 1, 2022<br>
119 (34) e2108146119<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119</a><br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Prudent risk management requires consideration of
bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such
potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic
climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even
eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously
underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that
climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the
mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize
action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency
responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of
extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst
cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic
outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The
proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the
potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2)
What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality
and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to
climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political
instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these
multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be
usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”?
It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the
challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119">https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>November 21, 2015 </b></i></font> <br>
November 21, 2015:<br>
In a New York Times op-ed, Jeff Biggers observes:<br>
<br>
"Negotiators en route to the United Nations conference on climate
change in Paris, scheduled to begin later this month, should take a
detour on rural roads here in Johnson County. A new climate
narrative is emerging among farmers in the American heartland that
transcends a lot of the old story lines of denial and cynicism, and
offers an updated tale of climate hope.<br>
<br>
"Recent polls show that 60 percent of Iowans, now facing flooding
and erosion, believe global warming is happening. From Winneshiek
County to Washington County, you can count more solar panels on
barns than on urban roofs or in suburban parking lots. The state’s
first major solar farm is not in an urban area like Des Moines or
Iowa City, but in rural Frytown, initiated by the Farmers Electric
Cooperative.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/opinion/iowas-climate-change-wisdom.html?ref=opinion">http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/opinion/iowas-climate-change-wisdom.html?ref=opinion</a><br>
<br>
<br>
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