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<font size="+2"><i><b>December 14, 2022</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ a promising innovation -- So, c</i><i>an we get a few thousand
by Tuesday?]</i><br>
<b>Paper-thin solar cell can turn any surface into a power source</b><br>
Researchers develop a scalable fabrication technique to produce
ultrathin, lightweight solar cells that can be seamlessly added to
any surface.<br>
Watch Video - <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS9ADU0oc50">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS9ADU0oc50</a><br>
Adam Zewe | MIT News Office<br>
Publication Date:December 9, 2022<br>
-- MIT researchers have developed a printable fabric solar cell that
can generate 18 times more power per kilogram than conventional
solar cells.<br>
-- These durable, flexible solar cells are glued to a strong,
lightweight fabric.<br>
-- They can provide energy on the go as a wearable power fabric or
be deployed in emergencies.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://news.mit.edu/2022/ultrathin-solar-cells-1209">https://news.mit.edu/2022/ultrathin-solar-cells-1209</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ James Hansen, the Grandfather of Global Warming Scientists
posts a scientific warning ]</i><br>
<b>Global Warming in the Pipeline</b><br>
13 December 2022<br>
James Hansen and Makiko Sato<br>
With 14 co-authors, we have submitted Global Warming in the
Pipeline[1] to Oxford Open Climate Change. With permission of
Editor-in-Chief Eelco Rohling, the submitted version is available on
arXiv, the website used by physicists for preprints. One merit of
arXiv is that it permits discussion with the scientific community
(in addition to official reviewers) analogous to but less formal
than the procedure used by journals with a “Discussion” publication
phase. Thus, we invite criticism of the submitted paper. We do not
invite media discussion; we will write a summary appropriate for the
public at the time a final version of the paper is published. This
approach allows time to work on a second paper. Also, now that it’s
clear what President Biden is willing to do (and not do) about
climate change, it’s time for JEH to finally finish Sophie’s Planet.<br>
We were spurred to write this paper in part by papers of Tierney et
al.[2] and Seltzer et al.,[3] which made a persuasive case that
global temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~20,000
years ago) was about 6°C colder than the Holocene. Forty years ago,
we realized[4] that the LGM cooling had to be greater than the 3.5°C
estimated by the CLIMAP project, because the CLIMAP surface
conditions left Earth out of energy balance by 1.6 W/m2 – and that
was without realizing that CH4 and N2O were less during the LGM. The
CLIMAP boundary conditions left a planet trying to cool off with a
(negative) forcing half as large as doubled CO2 (2×CO2) forcing. The
Tierney and Seltzer papers resolve the matter: the LGM really was
cold.<br>
<br>
One implication is that equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is
high, at least ~4°C for 2×CO2. That ECS refers to the climate
response including only “fast” feedbacks. Human-made greenhouse gas
(GHG) climate forcing today is 4 W/m2, equivalent to 2×CO2. Eventual
climate response to this forcing, including slow feedbacks, is ~10°C
(Fig. 1). Human-made aerosols reduce this to ~6-7°C.<br>
<br>
We were initially surprised by the quick decrease of Earth’s energy
imbalance (EEI) after CO2 was doubled in climate simulations of the
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate models
(GCMs) – [in production of acronyms, we seem to be relentless,
merciless]. In the first year after CO2 is doubled, the initial 4
W/m2 forcing is already reduced by one-third in the GISS (2020)
model (Fig. 2a). The e-folding time for the global temperature
increase is about a century, yet the e-folding time for EEI is as
short as a decade for this newer GISS model...<br>
- -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/c4a3dfe7-4f8a-3694-2434-c166ab7d2de2.png">https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/c4a3dfe7-4f8a-3694-2434-c166ab7d2de2.png</a><br>
This rapid decline of EEI probably signifies a cloud change in
response to the radiative forcing, as it is hard to think of
anything else that could be responsible for such a large change. In
fact, the community was already aware of what we call an “ultrafast
feedback,” see reviews by Andrews et al.,[5] Kamae et al.,[6] and
Zelinka et al.[7] This rapid tropospheric change can be described as
an adjustment, analogous to the stratospheric temperature adjustment
that occurs quickly after a CO2 doubling – there are pros and cons
as to whether to include the effect in the climate forcing or as a
feedback. The important point is not the terminology, but rather
implications for climate sensitivity. The high climate sensitivity
implied by the paleoclimate data tends to provide support for models
that have been finding amplifying cloud feedbacks. It is recognized
that the two GISS models in Fig. 2 do not have realistic cloud
microphysics and the cloud parameterization in the GISS (2020) model
has excessive supercooled water drops in cloudtops (Fig. 1 of Kelley
et al.[8]).<br>
<br>
Cloud modeling – including the effects of aerosols on clouds – may
be spurred by “the great inadvertent aerosol experiment.” Recent
regulations on the sulfur content of ship fuels imposed by the
International Maritime Organization (IMO) affect injection of
human-made cloud condensation nuclei, with a significant effect on
absorbed solar radiation. Large human-health effects of aerosols
make it likely that recent aerosol reductions will continue and
global warming accelerate (Fig. 3).
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/1ad10c04-532c-5b09-e7c9-c639b5b1b64a.png">https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/1ad10c04-532c-5b09-e7c9-c639b5b1b64a.png</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-in-the-pipeline?e=c4e20a3850">https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-in-the-pipeline?e=c4e20a3850</a><br>
and more at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Part two of two: From delay & despair to REAL hope &
action. A thoughtful video discussion </i><i>between two
influencers </i><i> ]</i><br>
<b>2 | Greta Thunberg & Kevin Anderson | From delay &
despair to REAL hope & action | 2022 Interview</b><br>
Climate Uncensored<br>
704 subscribers<br>
3,154 views Premiered Sep 29, 2022 <i>[ notice there are MORE
views than subscribers ]</i><br>
Greta Thunberg and Kevin Anderson are among the world's most direct
communicators and rigorous thinkers on the climate emergency. Here
is part two of a fantastic, rare conversation between them, hosted
by regular Climate Uncensored collaborator, Ingrid Rieser.<br>
<br>
Recorded in Sweden in March 2022, Kevin and Greta's informal yet
candid discussion ranged over many key topics in climate mitigation,
with honesty, leadership and agency being recurring themes.<br>
<blockquote>Chapters:<br>
00:00 Individual action and systemic change<br>
06:06 How (not) to be a credible climate advocate<br>
13:14 A vision of a better world?<br>
18:17 Depression and climate despair, what can we do?<br>
<b>21:53 Treating an emergency as an emergency</b><br>
26:40 Anger and hope<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72nrXRv6Nj0&">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72nrXRv6Nj0&</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ trending scam -- video ]</i><br>
<b>#ClimateScam is trending - so now what?</b><br>
Jem Bendell<br>
Dec 13, 2022<br>
In this talk at the UN climate conference in Egypt, with the Climate
Emergency Forum, I present data that indicates the prominence of
criticisms of the climate policy agenda. I offer ideas about why
this is the case, and what to do about it. <br>
<br>
To read a transcript of the talk:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://jembendell.com/2022/11/09/when-climatescam-is-trending-rethinking-climate-comms/">https://jembendell.com/2022/11/09/when-climatescam-is-trending-rethinking-climate-comms/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIzcbEUZ0qg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIzcbEUZ0qg</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Comment-of-the-day from the Journal nature ] </i><br>
12 December 2022<br>
<b>Degrowth can work — here’s how science can help</b><br>
Wealthy countries can create prosperity while using less materials
and energy if they abandon economic growth as an objective.<br>
Jason Hickel, Giorgos Kallis, Tim Jackson, Daniel W. O’Neill, Juliet
B. Schor, Julia K. Steinberger, Peter A. Victor & Diana
Ürge-Vorsatz<br>
The global economy is structured around growth — the idea that
firms, industries and nations must increase production every year,
regardless of whether it is needed. This dynamic is driving climate
change and ecological breakdown. High-income economies, and the
corporations and wealthy classes that dominate them, are mainly
responsible for this problem and consume energy and materials at
unsustainable rates1,2.<br>
<br>
Yet many industrialized countries are now struggling to grow their
economies, given economic convulsions caused by the COVID-19
pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resource scarcities and
stagnating productivity improvements. Governments face a difficult
situation. Their attempts to stimulate growth clash with objectives
to improve human well-being and reduce environmental damage.<br>
Researchers in ecological economics call for a different approach —
degrowth3. Wealthy economies should abandon growth of gross domestic
product (GDP) as a goal, scale down destructive and unnecessary
forms of production to reduce energy and material use, and focus
economic activity around securing human needs and well-being. This
approach, which has gained traction in recent years, can enable
rapid decarbonization and stop ecological breakdown while improving
social outcomes2. It frees up energy and materials for low- and
middle-income countries in which growth might still be needed for
development. Degrowth is a purposeful strategy to stabilize
economies and achieve social and ecological goals, unlike recession,
which is chaotic and socially destabilizing and occurs when
growth-dependent economies fail to grow.<br>
<br>
Reports this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) suggest that degrowth
policies should be considered in the fight against climate breakdown
and biodiversity loss, respectively. Policies to support such a
strategy include the following.<br>
<br>
<b>Reduce less-necessary production.</b> This means scaling down
destructive sectors such as fossil fuels, mass-produced meat and
dairy, fast fashion, advertising, cars and aviation, including
private jets. At the same time, there is a need to end the planned
obsolescence of products, lengthen their lifespans and reduce the
purchasing power of the rich.<br>
<br>
<b>Improve public services.</b> It is necessary to ensure universal
access to high-quality health care, education, housing,
transportation, Internet, renewable energy and nutritious food.
Universal public services can deliver strong social outcomes without
high levels of resource use.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Introduce a green jobs guarantee</b>. This would train and
mobilize labour around urgent social and ecological objectives, such
as installing renewables, insulating buildings, regenerating
ecosystems and improving social care. A programme of this type would
end unemployment and ensure a just transition out of jobs for
workers in declining industries or ‘sunset sectors’, such as those
contingent on fossil fuels. It could be paired with a universal
income policy.<br>
<br>
<b>Reduce working time. </b>This could be achieved by lowering the
retirement age, encouraging part-time working or adopting a four-day
working week. These measures would lower carbon emissions and free
people to engage in care and other welfare-improving activities.
They would also stabilize employment as less-necessary production
declines.<br>
<br>
<b>Enable sustainable development. </b>This requires cancelling
unfair and unpayable debts of low- and middle-income countries,
curbing unequal exchange in international trade and creating
conditions for productive capacity to be reoriented towards
achieving social objectives...<br>
Some countries, regions and cities have already introduced elements
of these policies. Many European nations guarantee free health care
and education; Vienna and Singapore are renowned for high-quality
public housing; and nearly 100 cities worldwide offer free public
transport. Job guarantee schemes have been used by many nations in
the past, and experiments with basic incomes and shorter working
hours are under way in Finland, Sweden and New Zealand.<br>
<br>
But implementing a more comprehensive strategy of degrowth — in a
safe and just way — faces five key research challenges, as we
outline here.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Remove dependencies on growth</b><br>
Economies today depend on growth in several ways. Welfare is often
funded by tax revenues. Private pension providers rely on
stock-market growth for financial returns. Firms cite projected
growth to attract investors. Researchers need to identify and
address such ‘growth dependencies’ on a sector-by-sector basis.<br>
<br>
For example, the ‘fiduciary duty’ of company directors needs to be
changed. Instead of prioritizing the short-term financial interests
of shareholders, companies should prioritize social and
environmental benefits and take social and ecological costs into
account. Sectors such as social care and pensions need secure
funding mechanisms for public providers, and better regulation and
dismantling of perverse financial incentives for private providers4.<br>
<br>
Balancing the national economy will require new macro-economic
models that combine economic, financial, social and ecological
variables. Models such as LowGrow SFC (developed by T.J. and
P.A.V.), EUROGREEN and MEDEAS are already being used to project the
impacts of degrowth policies, including redistributive taxes,
universal public services and reductions in working time...<br>
But these models typically focus on a single country and fail to
take into account cross-border dynamics, such as movements of
capital and currency. For example, if markets are spooked by low
growth in one country, some companies might move their capital
overseas, which could adversely affect the original country’s
currency and increase borrowing costs. Conditions such as these
posed severe financial problems for Argentina in 2001 and Greece in
2010. International cooperation for tighter border control of
capital movements needs to be considered and the effects modelled.<br>
<br>
<b>Fund public services</b><br>
New forms of financing will be needed to fund public services
without growth. Governments must stop subsidies for fossil-fuel
extraction. They should tax ecologically damaging industries such as
air travel and meat production. Wealth taxes can also be used to
increase public resources and reduce inequality.<br>
<br>
Governments that issue their own currency can use this power to
finance social and ecological objectives. This approach was used to
bail out banks after the global financial crisis of 2007–8 and to
pay for furlough schemes and hospitals during the COVID-19
pandemic5.<br>
<br>
Inflationary risks must be managed, if increased demand outstrips
the productive capacity of the economy. Earmarking currency for
public services reduces cost-of-living inflation. But a degrowth
strategy can also reduce demand for material goods — for example
through progressive taxation, by encouraging shared and
collaborative consumption, incentivizing renovation and repair, and
supporting community-based services.<br>
<br>
Another risk is that when states or central banks issue currency, it
can increase the service payments on government debt. Research
suggests that managing this risk requires careful coordination of
fiscal policy (how much governments tax and spend) and monetary
policy (how price stability is maintained)6. Modelling and empirical
research is needed to shed light on the pros and cons of innovative
monetary policy mechanisms — such as a ‘tiered reserve system’,
which reduces the interest rate on government debt.<br>
<br>
<b>Manage working-time reductions</b><br>
Trials of shorter working hours have generally reported positive
outcomes. These include less stress and burnout and better sleep
among employees while maintaining productivity7. Most trials have
focused on the public sector, mainly in northern Europe. But private
companies in North America, Europe and Australasia have run trials
of four-day weeks, with similar results8. However, the companies
were self-selecting, and research is needed to test whether this
approach can succeed more widely, for example outside the
white-collar industries that dominate the trials.<br>
Barriers to implementing reduced hours need to be understood and
addressed. Per-head staff costs, such as capped tax contributions
and health insurance, make it more expensive for employers to
increase staff numbers. Personal debt might encourage employees to
work longer hours, although recent trials showed no evidence of
this7,8.<br>
<br>
The understanding of collective impacts is also limited. Outcomes
from France’s experiments with a 35-hour week have been mixed:
although many people benefited, some lower-paid and less-skilled
workers experienced stagnant wages and more-intense work9. Such
pressures need to be studied and addressed. Assumptions that reduced
hours result in more employment need to be tested in different
sectors and settings. Recent evidence suggests that workers can
maintain productivity by reorganizing their work7,8.<br>
<br>
Links between hours of work and carbon emissions also need to be
established10. Although less commuting lowers energy use and carbon
emissions during compressed work weeks, behaviours during three-day
weekends remain underexplored. More travel or shopping during free
time could increase emissions, but these effects could be mitigated
if production in problem sectors is scaled down.<br>
<br>
<b>Reshape provisioning systems</b><br>
No country currently meets the basic needs of its residents
sustainably1. Affluent economies use more than their fair share of
resources2, whereas lower-income countries are likely to need to use
more. Researchers need to study how provisioning systems link
resource use with social outcomes, for both physical systems
(infrastructure and technology) and social ones (governments and
markets).<br>
<br>
Bottom-up studies suggest that better provisioning systems could
deliver decent living standards with much less energy use than is
required today11. These studies don’t fully account for institutions
such as the state, and are likely to be underestimates. Top-down
studies, which do factor in such institutions, suggest that more
energy is required to meet human needs12. But these studies are
unable to separate out wasteful consumption such as big cars or
yachts, and are thus likely to be overestimates...<br>
Researchers need to reconcile these approaches, and consider
resources besides energy, including materials, land and water. They
need to examine the provisioning systems for housing,
transportation, communication, health care, education and food. What
social and institutional changes would improve provisioning? What
types of provision have the most beneficial social and environmental
outcomes? Such research can be done using empirical observation, as
well as through modelling.<br>
<br>
Take housing, for example. In many parts of the world, property
markets cater to developers, landlords and financiers. This
contributes to segregation and inequality, and can push working
people out of city centres so they are dependent on cars, which
increases fossil-fuel emissions. Alternative approaches include
public or cooperative housing, and a financial system that
prioritizes housing as a basic need rather than as an opportunity
for profit.<br>
<b><br>
</b><b>Political feasibility and opposition</b><br>
Growth is often treated as an arbiter of political success. Few
leaders dare to challenge GDP growth. But public attitudes are
changing. Polls in Europe show that the majority of people
prioritize well-being and ecological objectives over growth (see
go.nature.com/3ugg8kt). Polls in the United States and the United
Kingdom show support for job guarantees and working-time reductions
(see go.nature.com/3uyhdjv and go.nature.com/3y8ujz5). The large
numbers of workers who have left their jobs in movements such as the
US Great Resignation or the Lying Flat protest groups in China show
there is demand for shorter working hours and more humane and
meaningful work. Nonetheless, political parties that have put
forward degrowth ideas have received limited support in elections.
That begs the question: where would the drive for degrowth policy
come from?<br>
<br>
Social movements and cultural change brewing below the surface often
precede and catalyse political transformation. Social scientists
should examine four areas. First, they need to identify changing
attitudes and practices using polls and focus groups...<br>
econd, they should learn from sustainable ‘transition towns’,
cooperatives, co-housing projects or other social formations that
prioritize post-growth modes of living. The experiences of countries
that have had to adapt to low-growth conditions — such as Cuba after
the fall of the Soviet Union, and Japan — also hold lessons.<br>
<br>
Third, researchers should study political movements that are aligned
with degrowth values — from La Via Campesina, the international
peasants’ movement that advocates food sovereignty and
agroecological methods, to the municipalist and communalist
movements and governments in progressive cities such as Barcelona or
Zagreb, which promote policies favouring social justice and the
commons. Better understanding is needed of the obstacles faced by
governments that have ecological ambitions, such as those elected
this year in Chile and Colombia.<br>
<br>
Fourth, a better grasp is needed of the political and economic
interests that might oppose or support degrowth. For example, how do
groups such as the think tanks, corporations, lobbyists and
political parties that work to support elite interests organize,
nationally and internationally, to scupper progressive economic and
social policy? The role of the media in shaping pro-growth attitudes
remains underexplored. Given the links between economic growth and
geopolitical power, individual nations might be disinclined to act
alone, for fear of facing competitive disadvantage, capital flight
or international isolation. This ‘first mover’ problem raises the
question of whether, and under what conditions, high-income
countries might cooperate towards a degrowth transition.<br>
<br>
<b>What next?</b><br>
Government action is crucial. This is a challenge, because those in
power have ideologies rooted in mainstream neoclassical economics,
and tend to have limited exposure to researchers who explore
economics from other angles. Political space will be needed to
debate and understand alternatives, and to develop policy responses.
Forums working on this include the Wellbeing Economy Alliance, the
Growth in Transition movement in Austria, the European Parliament’s
Post-Growth conference initiative and the UK All-Party Parliamentary
Group on Limits to Growth...<br>
trong social movements are necessary. Forms of decision-making that
are decentralized, small-scale and direct, such as citizens’
assemblies, would help to highlight public views about more
equitable economies13.<br>
<br>
Addressing the question of how to prosper without growth will
require a massive mobilization of researchers in all disciplines,
including open-minded economists, social and political scientists,
modellers and statisticians. Research on degrowth and ecological
economics needs more funding, to increase capacity to address
necessary questions. And the agenda needs attention and debate in
major economic, environmental and climate forums, such as the United
Nations conferences.<br>
<br>
A March 2022 editorial in this journal argued that it is time to
move beyond a ‘limits to growth’ versus ‘green growth’ debate. We
agree. In our view, the question is no longer whether growth will
run into limits, but rather how we can enable societies to prosper
without growth, to ensure a just and ecological future. Let’s pave
the way.<br>
<br>
Nature 612, 400-403 (2022)<br>
<br>
doi: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-04412-x">https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-04412-x</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04412-x">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04412-x</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at polling influencer trying to
redeem himself - Luntz moved media audience away from term"Global
warming" onto the the benign and friendly "Climate Change"]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>December 14, </b></i></font> <br>
December 14, 2009: Frank Luntz--the author of an infamous 1990s memo
encouraging Republicans to place rhetorical emphasis on alleged
uncertainties in climate science--appears on the Fox News Channel
and declares that according to his own polling, Americans want
action on climate change. <br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://youtu.be/PXoB3xCSgi8">http://youtu.be/PXoB3xCSgi8</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<p>======================================= <br>
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