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<font size="+2"><i><b>January 8, 2023</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ video forecast - heated areas make jetstreams stretch out
straight ]</i><br>
<b>We’re About To Get Slammed By These Huge Storms…</b><br>
Ryan Hall, Y'all<br>
33,467 views Jan 7, 2023 #weatherchannel #ryanhall #ryanhallyall<br>
In this video we are talking about how we are about to get slammed
by these upcoming huge storms. Everyone will be impacted in some
way. <br>
More Atmospheric Rivers Are Coming: 0:00
<blockquote>Strange Jet Stream: 2:13<br>
Potential Cross Country Storm: 3:52<br>
The Perfect Storm Fuel: 5:41<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7QZNChEN5Y">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7QZNChEN5Y</a>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ From Yale, top weather forecasting ]</i><br>
<b>More wind, rain, flooding ahead for storm-battered California</b><br>
At least two more intense cyclones expected to slam the state into
next week.<br>
by BOB HENSON and JEFF MASTERS<br>
JANUARY 4, 2023<br>
[ ---concludes...]<br>
It’s been tough in recent years for the state to scare up a full
winter’s worth of moisture, as California has been in the grip of a
devastating 22-year drought that has cost billions of dollars and
helped fuel record wildfire seasons<br>
<br>
The trend toward “hot droughts” has made these long moisture-free
periods even more worrisome, helping extend the wildfire season into
months where fire was once uncommon. Thus, the rains of 2023 will
bring welcome drought relief and are likely to prevent hundreds of
millions of dollars of drought damages. Several reservoirs in the
state have already gone above their average water levels for this
point in the season (Figure 3), and additional liquid gold will fill
the reservoirs in the coming weeks.<br>
<br>
The ongoing series of storms will surely push January’s
precipitation toward average for the month, and perhaps well beyond.
But will the faucet keep running? In its Jan. 3 statement, the
California Department of Natural Resources, which carries out the
snow survey, noted: “This January’s results are similar to results
in 2013 and 2022 when the January 1 snowpack was at or above average
conditions, only for dry weather to set in and lead to drought
conditions by the end of the water year (September 30).”<br>
<br>
Unfortunately, the rains will bring costly flooding likely to cause
hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. This whipsaw from
damaging drought to damaging flooding is a particularly striking
example of the exacerbation of precipitation extremes that a warming
climate is likely to continue producing in an area naturally prone
to weather whiplash, as documented by Daniel Swain and coauthors in
a 2018 paper in Nature Climate Change, “Increasing precipitation
volatility in twenty-first century California.”<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/01/more-wind-rain-flooding-ahead-for-storm-battered-california/">https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/01/more-wind-rain-flooding-ahead-for-storm-battered-california/</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ from Nature Climate Change]</i><br>
<b>Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century
California</b><br>
Published: 23 April 2018<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid
shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid
transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to
extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic
example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events,
however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here
using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate
model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large
twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes,
including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events
comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but
statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As
a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet
precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in
mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would
seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance
and flood control infrastructure.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0140-y">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0140-y</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ splash in the face for a thirsty man ] </i><br>
<b>California’s deadly floods won’t break the megadrought</b><br>
Atmospheric rivers are dumping rain on California. That’s not a good
thing.<br>
By Neel Dhanesha @neel_dhan <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:neel.dhanesha@vox.com">neel.dhanesha@vox.com</a> <br>
Jan 6, 2023<br>
A “river” more than 100 miles wide is gushing through the air high
above California, bringing with it heavy rain, winds, and snow. It’s
the third in a series of weather systems known as atmospheric rivers
— long, heavy columns of water vapor in the sky — to hit the state
in the last two weeks.<br>
<br>
It’s already proven deadly: Two people have died as a result of the
storms, including a toddler; roads have flooded or been hit by
mudslides, forcing evacuations; and more than 180,000 Californians
lost power. On Wednesday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a
state of emergency ahead of the storm’s arrival, and the city of San
Francisco ran out of sandbags for the second day in a row as
residents rushed to protect their homes from the possibility of
flooding.<br>
<br>
Once the storm passes, there will be little respite: Another
atmospheric river is forecast to hit the state this coming weekend
and next week, bringing even more flooding...<br>
- -<br>
<b>Reason 1: Too much water all at once</b><br>
As we wrote last August, droughts and floods are something of a
vicious cycle. It takes time for water to soak into soil, and having
multiple storms hit in quick succession is something like
overwatering a potted plant: The soil simply can’t take any more
water. Eventually the rain turns into floods, which further erode
the soil and bring the risk of downed trees, which can take out
power lines and damage buildings; a 2-year-old child was killed this
week when a redwood fell on a mobile home in Sonoma County.<br>
- -<br>
If the rain had been spaced out over a series of months, it might
have helped with the drought by filling reservoirs over time, said
Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University’s Water
in the West program. The soil would also be less saturated, allowing
for more water to soak in more slowly, replenishing groundwater
wells and reducing the chance of flooding.<br>
<br>
Instead of collecting in reservoirs or soaking into the ground, the
water has nowhere productive to go. So it floods.<br>
<b>Reason 2: Too little water altogether</b><br>
Expecting these extreme rain events to alleviate the drought is a
bit like racking up thousands of dollars in debt over the course of
months and only receiving one or two paychecks at the end of the
year...<br>
- -<br>
The water can’t be diverted to the large reservoirs, either, since
the system that’s used to move water around the state isn’t designed
for quick, heavy events like these atmospheric rivers, and building
out a system that can do so will take massive investments of time
and money.<br>
<br>
<b>Reason 3: Climate change is making snowpack melt earlier</b><br>
The reservoirs are also only part of the water puzzle in California.
Just as important is snowpack, or the accumulated snow on mountains,
which acts like a natural water-storage system and provides about 30
percent of the state’s water.<br>
<br>
The atmospheric rivers are bringing snow to the Sierra Nevada
mountains, but the snow line is moving higher and higher as climate
change intensifies, meaning there’s less snow overall, and the snow
doesn’t last as long as it used to.<br>
<br>
A snow survey conducted by the DWR earlier in the week showed the
storms that hit California in December brought a significant amount
of snow with them, but the question is whether that snow will last
through the year. A 2022 January snow survey came back with the
seventh-highest measurements on record for that location, but by
April 1, much of that snow had disappeared, leading to the
third-lowest measurements on record for the same spot. Losing that
snow early means it won’t be available during the summer months,
when the water is most needed.<br>
<br>
Atmospheric rivers like the ones hitting California this winter are
going to keep hitting the state. As climate change continues to
transform the water realities of the West, Diffenbaugh said, the
state will likely have to retool its infrastructure to capture more
stormwater from those events and reduce its reliance on the steadily
disappearing snowpack.<br>
<br>
“We have a lot of water infrastructure systems that are really
sophisticated,” said Diffenbaugh. “Part of the challenge is updating
those really well-developed systems to be resilient to and prepared
for the challenges that this new climate provides.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2023/1/6/23542194/california-atmospheric-river-flood-drought">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2023/1/6/23542194/california-atmospheric-river-flood-drought</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ See 20 changes -- Weather Channel - really? The end of this
century? ]</i><br>
<b>Shocking Photos Show Snowless Ski Resorts Across Europe</b><br>
By Nicole Bonaccorso<br>
- - Alarming photos show nearly snowless ski areas in Europe's Alps
this month.<br>
- - Record-breaking temperatures and low snowfall are to blame.<br>
- - Nearly half of France's ski slopes are closed due to lack of
snow.<br>
Climate experts say snowless slopes could become more common as
global temperatures rise.<br>
<br>
”By the end of the century (it’s) just going to be over ... skiing
in the Alps as we know it,” Wim Thiery, a professor of climate
science at the University of Brussels, told The Associated Press.
"In the future, these problems will get worse, because the snow will
continue to melt as long as the climate warms.”<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://weather.com/photos/news/2023-01-06-snowless-ski-resorts-europe-photos">https://weather.com/photos/news/2023-01-06-snowless-ski-resorts-europe-photos</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ library distress ]</i><br>
<b>Floods, Fires and Humidity: How Climate Change Affects Book
Preservation</b><br>
As extreme weather events become more common, archivists and
conservators are scrambling to protect their collections...<br>
Emmett Lindner<br>
Jan. 7, 2023<br>
<br>
At Tulane University, 1.5 million books and manuscripts were
drenched when Hurricane Katrina swept through Louisiana in 2005. In
2018, the University of California, Los Angeles was in talks to
receive a donor’s collection when it was destroyed in the Woolsey
fire. And the following year, the Getty fire sent up thick, black
plumes of smoke that threatened to filter into U.C.L.A.’s libraries
and damage the fragile materials housed inside.<br>
- -<br>
But luck is not a safeguard against the growing threat posed by
extreme weather events such as wildfires and floods to book
collections, even collections housed in professional facilities. As
those events have become more common as a result of climate change,
preservationists across the United States know they must adapt their
practices to keep books and archives safe. But the solutions can
raise their own set of sustainability issues.<br>
<br>
Many experts feel they are in a race against time. A 2018 study
published in the Climate Risk Management journal assessed 1,232
archival repositories in the United States and found that nearly 99
percent were “likely to be affected by at least one climate risk
factor.”...<br>
- -<br>
Shifts in temperature and humidity from climate change can have
large consequences...<br>
- -<br>
“The higher the humidity, the higher the temperature, the quicker
they will break down their organic materials,” said Holly Prochaska,
the interim head of the Archives and Rare Books Library at the
University of Cincinnati. “Leather will wet rot. Collagen fibers in
vellum will tighten and shrink.”..<br>
- -<br>
“Books gain meaning by use — use is exhibit, use is research — and
there’s a beauty in use,” Metzger said. “If we just isolate things
and keep them in these little, perfectly-controlled environments
with guards around them, what is their meaning anymore?”...<br>
- -<br>
The threat from climate change is an ongoing problem, and there is
no perfect solution as collections by design amass more and more
materials.<br>
<br>
“The needs of the book are actually not that complicated,” Metzger
said. “The world around it has become more complicated.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/books/climate-change-book-preservation.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/books/climate-change-book-preservation.html</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ The physical books is ill-suited for our future ]</i><br>
<b>American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.005Get">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.005Get</a> rights and content<br>
Under a Creative Commons license<br>
<blockquote>Climate risks to cultural heritage in archives are
unevenly distributed across the U.S.<br>
<br>
Climate change will modify archive risk exposure in the future.<br>
<br>
Archivists need reliable and local climate risk information for
planning.<br>
<br>
Climate risk analysis and mapping can inform adaptation efforts.<br>
</blockquote>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Climate change directly affects the future security of
cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives,
are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change
threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future
consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a
mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to
incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change
threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding,
and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise
and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were
assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that
approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at
least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives
are at low risk of exposure (90%) when risk factors are combined.
Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7%
of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge
and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8-m scenario). Fewer
archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding
(2.4%). More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a
temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely
to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive
at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual
averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate
socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure
of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for
safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk
assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by
promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing
administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based
on the expected severity of future climate change impacts.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300135?via%3Dihub">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300135?via%3Dihub</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ Four years ago, two scientists discuss climate scientists.
Foundational, but needs an update ]</i><br>
<b>Did scientists get climate change wrong?</b><br>
Sabine Hossenfelder<br>
345,255 views Nov 15, 2019<br>
Interview with Prof Tim Palmer from the University of Oxford.<br>
<br>
A recent opinion piece in the New York Times argued that scientists
got climate change wrong<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html</a><br>
<br>
But did they really?<br>
<br>
In this video we speak about the uncertainty of climate predictions,
tipping points, what we know, what we do not know about the trends,
and what policy consequences to draw from that.<br>
<br>
The mentioned article in the Guardian is here:<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/25/the-real-reason-some-scientists-downplay-the-risks-of-climate-change">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/25/the-real-reason-some-scientists-downplay-the-risks-of-climate-change</a><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fkCo_trbT8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fkCo_trbT8</a><br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at one moment of bipartisan
agreement - but failed action ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>January 8, 2003</b></i></font> <br>
January 8, 2003: Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Joseph Lieberman
(D-CT) introduce the bipartisan Climate Stewardship Act of 2003,
which would establish a federal cap-and-trade program to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. (The bill would be defeated in the Senate
in October 2003.)<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/09/us/politics-economy-environment-mccain-lieberman-offer-bill-require-cuts-gases.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/09/us/politics-economy-environment-mccain-lieberman-offer-bill-require-cuts-gases.html</a>
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.edf.org/news/environmental-defense-praises-new-mccain-lieberman-climate-bill">http://www.edf.org/news/environmental-defense-praises-new-mccain-lieberman-climate-bill</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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