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<font size="+2"><i><b>January 9, 2023</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ future options -- 12 min video has some nice data animations ]
</i><br>
<b>Every known climate projection, and which ones might really work!</b><br>
Just Have a Think<br>
22,494 views Jan 8, 2023<br>
Climate modelling is becoming an ever more sophisticated science,
but there are still more than 1200 different future pathways
outlined in the latest IPPC report, depending on what we humans
choose to do next. Now a team of journalists and scientists has
assessed those pathways to find out if any of them is genuinely
achievable.<br>
Check out the original article here -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2022/global-warming-1-5-celsius-scenarios/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2022/global-warming-1-5-celsius-scenarios/</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVBbd4G_EbY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVBbd4G_EbY</a>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ here is the paper ]</i><br>
<b>We looked at 1,200 possibilities for the planet’s future. These
are our best hope.</b><br>
By Chris Mooney, Naema Ahmed and John Muyskens <br>
Dec. 1, 2022<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2022/global-warming-1-5-celsius-scenarios/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2022/global-warming-1-5-celsius-scenarios/</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<i>[ seeking the optimal dwelling for down-sizing - from DW news ]</i><br>
<b>Climate-friendly, affordable housing: Is it possible?</b><br>
Gero Rueter<br>
January 6, 2023<br>
Our homes protect us from the rain and cold. But heating them
requires a lot of energy, and building them is bad for the climate
as well. DW looks at more environmental ways of living.<br>
Buildings are massive emitters. Their heating, electricity and
construction cause about 10 billion metric tons of CO2 per year
worldwide. On average, that's about 1.3 tons of carbon dioxide per
person every year. <br>
<br>
In 2021, the buildings and construction sector was responsible for
37% of energy-related CO2 emissions, surpassing the transportation
sector (22%), according to a UN study.<br>
<br>
So how can we reduce these high emissions? And what measures can we
take to ensure sustainable, affordable and comfortable living?<br>
<br>
<b>More housing, more CO2</b><br>
The world's population has grown significantly over the past 100
years, and so have housing needs. And, as income levels have soared,
there has been a rise in the number of people living alone. But
across the world, there are huge variations in the amount of living
space. <br>
<br>
A person in Nigeria, for example, uses 6 square meters (65 square
feet) of living space on average. That number goes up to 18 in
Turkey, 24 in Brazil, 30 in China, 38 in the European Union and 75
square meters in the United States. <br>
<br>
In Germany, the average living space per person has more than
tripled since 1950 — rising from 15 square meters to 48. Older
empty nesters tend to have the most room, with senior citizens
having an average of 60 square meters per person.<br>
<br>
The more apartments and houses there are, the more energy is needed
for heating and electricity — and the more CO2 is produced by these
new buildings.<br>
Older buildings need a particularly high amount of energy for
heating, which can become expensive. But they can save up to 90% of
energy with insulation and modern ventilation systems. And heating
costs can also go down if less room is used.<br>
<br>
<b>How do we heat affordably in a climate-neutral way?</b><br>
Biogas, wood or wood pellets are a few climate-friendly alternatives
to fossil fuels. But these resources are becoming increasingly
scarce and expensive, so experts also recommend heat pumps. These
draw heat from the ground or air and are powered with electricity.
They can generate up to 7 kilowatt hours (kWh) of heat energy from 1
kWh of electricity.<br>
<br>
Heat pumps do not produce harmful particulate matter and, if green
electricity is used, no CO2. In Scandinavia, buildings have long
been heated with heat pumps and district heating is operated with
large ones. In combination with solar thermal energy, biomass and
deep geothermal energy, some of these networks are close to being
climate-neutral.<br>
<b>Producing your own solar power</b><br>
Energy-efficient heat pumps, fridges and LEDs can also lower the
power consumption of buildings. Affordable electricity can even be
generated at the house itself with photovoltaic roofs and facades. <br>
<br>
In Germany, solar panels for the roof can generate solar power for
less than 0.10€ ($0.11) per kWh. That's not even a quarter of the
price one would normally pay for electricity from the grid: an
average of 0.40€ per kWh. Solar panels pay for themselves in five to
15 years, after which they generate free electricity for around two
decades. <br>
<b>Renewable material instead of concrete, steel and plastic</b><br>
A lot of CO2 is emitted during the construction of buildings, some
0.5 to 0.8 tons per square meter of living space. That's about 50 to
80 tons of CO2 for the construction of a new 100-square-meter
apartment. In comparison, India emits 2 tons of CO2 per capita per
year.<br>
<br>
Emissions are mainly caused by the production of cement, lime and
gypsum (25%), by the construction itself (10%) and by the production
of building materials such as insulation (8%) and metals (8%).<br>
<br>
Alternative building materials such as wood and renewable insulating
options like straw can drastically reduce CO2 emissions from
construction sites. In Germany, it could slash them by 50%.<br>
<b>Refurbishing instead of building</b><br>
Upgrading older units instead of building new ones also saves CO2
and reduces expenses. Renovation usually costs around a quarter less
than building a new building, meaning emissions from construction
and operation can be more than halved. <br>
<br>
That's why architects, scientists and environmental associations
want city planners and builders to rethink their designs. They say
demolition and new construction should be avoided wherever possible,
and refurbishing older buildings should become the norm. <br>
<br>
<b>Less living space to protect the climate?</b><br>
Considering the housing shortage and the climate crisis, experts
also want society and politicians to rethink their priorities.<br>
<br>
"The area of land on which people in Germany live today would be
sufficient for 200 million people — if they were content with an
area that was common in the 1960s," said sociologist Maike Böcker of
the Institute for Cultural Studies in Essen, in western Germany. <br>
<br>
Germany currently has a population of 83 million people; in 2022,
the global population surpassed 8 billion.<br>
<br>
In a 2020 study, the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment
and Energy called for "intelligent and flexible" ways of using
living space. The German think tank said this is necessary to curb
growing demand and keep global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7
degrees Fahrenheit).<br>
<br>
Meanwhile, Austria's Graz University of Technology has modeled a
scenario in which global energy demand falls by 40% — despite the
growing population — to comply with the 1.5-degree limit. The
researchers recommend a worldwide average of 30 square meters of
living space per person.<br>
<b>More social contacts for better living</b><br>
Experts also see potential for senior citizens to cut down on living
space. In industrialized countries like Germany, many older single
people or couples live in large apartments or houses after their
children move out, though these homes are often not equipped to meet
the needs of the elderly. At the same time, there is a lack of
living space for young families, especially in cities.<br>
<br>
This is where targeted advice and offers can help, according to
urban planner and economist Daniel Fuhrhop. <br>
<br>
"They could move into smaller apartments or renovate their homes to
add an additional dwelling unit," he said. "They could also sublet
or live with other people. There are many great, tried-and-tested
options."<br>
<br>
Some universities now arrange for students to pay lower rents by
living with seniors and helping them with household chores. Housing
projects with small, individual living units paired with communal
gardens, workshops, studios as well as laundry and fitness rooms are
also becoming increasingly popular.<br>
<br>
In this model, office space and guest rooms can be booked for a
certain period of time at a reasonable price. Many residents
appreciate these shared quarters. It's a way for them to spend time
together, get to know each other better and to support each other.<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-friendly-affordable-housing-is-it-possible/a-64245802">https://www.dw.com/en/climate-friendly-affordable-housing-is-it-possible/a-64245802</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ The late Stephen Schneider's lecture from 15 years ago -- still
admired educational talk ]</i><br>
<b>Stephen H. Schneider, Is the Science of Global Warming Settled
Enough for Policy? October 2008</b><br>
UCSB Bren School<br>
7,135 views Mar 29, 2011<br>
The late Dr. Schneider was the Inaugural Visitor in the Zurich
Financial Services Distinguished Visitors Program on Climate Change.
He was then the Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary
Environmental Studies, Professor of Biological Sciences, and a
Senior Fellow in the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford
University. From 1973-1996 he served as a scientist at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research, where he co-founded the Climate
Project. His research focused on climate-change science, integrated
assessment of ecological and economic impacts of human-induced
climate change, and identifying viable climate policies and
technological solutions. He also consulted for federal agencies and
White House staff in six administrations.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y93aNFOLIg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y93aNFOLIg</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ 3 min</i><i> video report - </i><i> NOAA calls it
"Human-caused climate change" ]</i><br>
<b>Arctic Report Card 2022</b><br>
NOAAPMEL<br>
3,104 views Dec 13, 2022 #NOAA #ArcticReportCard<br>
Arctic Report Card: Update for 2022 - Tracking recent environmental
changes, with 15 essays prepared by an international team of 147
researchers from 11 different countries and an independent peer
review organized by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
of the Arctic Council. #NOAA #ArcticReportCard<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDG-moe0tZs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDG-moe0tZs</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[Arctic Report Card Tracking recent environmental changes
relative to historical records]</i><br>
<b>Arctic Program</b><br>
<b>What's New?</b><br>
The warming Arctic reveals shifting seasons, widespread
disturbances, and the value of diverse observations<br>
<br>
Shifting seasons and climate-driven disturbances, such as wildfires,
extreme weather, and unusual wildlife mortality events, are becoming
increasingly difficult to assess within the context of what has been
previously considered normal.<br>
<br>
<b>About the Arctic Report Card</b><br>
Issued annually since 2006, the Arctic Report Card is a timely and
peer-reviewed source for clear, reliable and concise environmental
information on the current state of different components of the
Arctic environmental system relative to historical records.<br>
<br>
The Report Card is intended for a wide audience, including
scientists, teachers, students, decision-makers and the general
public interested in the Arctic environment and science.<br>
A significant increase in Arctic precipitation since the 1950s is
now detectable across all seasons. Wetter-than-normal conditions
were observed from October 2021 through September 2022, in what was
the 3rd wettest year of the past 72 years...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-card">https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-card</a><br>
<p><i><br>
</i></p>
<p><i><br>
</i> </p>
<i> [ Old men talking about the future - one has a book for sale ]</i><br>
<b>Can Science Save Us? (Martin Rees)</b><br>
Skeptic<br>
3,475 views Jan 3, 2023 The Michael Shermer Show<br>
The Michael Shermer Show # 314<br>
<br>
Shermer and Rees discuss: existential threats • overpopulation •
biodiversity loss • climate change • AI and self-driving cars,
robots, and unemployment • his bet with Steven Pinker • his
disagreement with Richard Dawkins • how science works as a communal
activity • scientific creativity • science communication • science
education • why there aren’t more women and people of color in STEM
fields • verification vs. falsification • Bayesian reasoning and
scientific progress • Model Dependent Realism and the nature of
reality Fermi’s Paradox • why he’s an atheist but wants to be buried
in the Presbyterian church in which he was raised • mysterian
mysteries.<br>
<br>
Martin Rees is Astronomer Royal, former President of the Royal
Society, Fellow (and former Master) of Trinity College, Cambridge,
and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics at the
University of Cambridge. He sits as a member of the UK House of
Lords. He is the author of many bestselling popular science books,
including: On the Future; Just Six Numbers; Before the Beginning;
and Our Final Hour. His newest book is If Science is to Save Us.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STJcyTRhYrI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STJcyTRhYrI</a>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
<i>[ the book ]</i><br>
<b>If Science is to Save Us.</b> 1st Edition 2022<br>
by Martin Rees (Author)<br>
There has never been a time when ‘following the science’ has been
more important for humanity. At no other point in history have we
had such advanced knowledge and technology at our fingertips, nor
had such astonishing capacity to determine the future of our planet.<br>
<br>
But the decisions we must make on how science is applied belong
outside the lab and should be the outcome of wide public debate. For
that to happen, science needs to become part of our common culture.
Science is not just for scientists: if it were, it could never save
us from the multiple crises we face. For science can save us, if its
innovations mesh carefully into society and its applications are
channelled for the common good.<br>
<br>
As Martin Rees argues in this expert and personal analysis of the
scientific endeavour on which we all depend, we need to think
globally, we need to think rationally and we need to think
long-term, empowered by twenty-first-century technology but guided
by values that science alone cannot provide.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.amazon.com/If-Science-Save-Martin-Rees/dp/1509554203/ref=sr_1_1">https://www.amazon.com/If-Science-Save-Martin-Rees/dp/1509554203/ref=sr_1_1</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ State of Hawaii has been planning for sea level rise ]</i><br>
<b>DLNR NEWS RELEASE-UPDATED HAWAII SEA LEVEL RISE REPORT RELEASED</b><br>
Posted on Dec 31, 2022 in Latest Department News, Newsroom<br>
(HONOLULU) – New science shows increased need for cross
jurisdictional coordination, funding, and capacity for sea level
rise action as outlined in an updated report by the Hawai‘i State
Climate Commission.<br>
<br>
First released in 2017, the Hawai‘i Sea Level Rise Vulnerability
and Adaptation Report, 2022-update addresses the threat posed by
climate change to public health, natural resources, economic
well-being, and the environment of Hawai‘i. It also assesses
progress made over the past five years in preparing the state for
the impacts of sea level rise.<br>
“The impacts of sea level rise do not stop at our shorelines. It is
important that we take a holistic approach and continue coordinated
planning for the future now,” said Amy Wirts, Hawai‘i Sea Grant
Extension Agent at the DLNR Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands
(OCCL).<br>
<p>The updated report describes progress toward addressing the 2017
report’s recommendations and gives future recommendations toward
urgent actions that need to be set as a priority in the next five
years. It also includes local and global updates on sea level rise
including trends, observations and predictions, accomplishments
and progress, coastal impacts, and guidance documents.</p>
“Sea levels will rise for centuries to millennia due to continuing
deep-ocean warming and ice-sheet melt and will remain elevated for
thousands of years. In Hawai‘i, we are experiencing the impacts of
sea level rise with growing frequency. These include flooding,
coastal erosion, extreme tides, drainage failure, wave overtopping,
and more. Unless we accelerate adaptation efforts, these hazards may
grow beyond our capacity to manage them,” said Dr. Charles
Fletcher, Director of the Climate Resilience Collaborative at the
University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa and Interim Dean of the School of
Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.<br>
<br>
The report highlights recent enhancements to laws, community
engagement, policies, and regulations, including to the Coastal Zone
Management Act (CZMA), real estate disclosure requirements,
environmental assessments, and in community planning addressing
increasing threats to development while keeping cultural and natural
resources safe. The report also highlights the need for continued
focus on developing a range of adaptation tools accessible to the
people of Hawai‘i in an equitable way.<br>
<br>
“Equity is the core mission of the commission. It is going to take
investment and collaboration from all of us to make sure this
happens. That is why we are so grateful for the hard work of the
University of Hawai`i Sea Grant College Program, and the Climate
Resilience Collaborative for helping the commission put this update
together,” said DLNR Chair Suzanne Case.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://governor.hawaii.gov/newsroom/dlnr-news-release-updated-hawaii-sea-level-rise-report-released/">https://governor.hawaii.gov/newsroom/dlnr-news-release-updated-hawaii-sea-level-rise-report-released/</a><br>
###<br>
<br>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at President Reagan's "critical
concerns" never acknowledged by </i><i>right-wing media entities
such as the Fox News Channel </i><i>]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>January 9, 1989 </b></i></font> <br>
<blockquote>
<p>January 9, 1989:</p>
<p>RONALD REAGAN<br>
40th President of the United States: 1981 ‐ 1989<br>
</p>
<p><b>Letter to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and
the President of the Senate Transmitting the Fiscal Year 1990
Budget</b><br>
</p>
<p>"Because changes in the earth's natural systems can have
tremendous economic and social effects, global climate change is
becoming a critical concern. Our ability to understand and
predict these changes is currently limited, and a better
understanding is essential for developing policies. The budget
proposes a coordinated and effective Federal research program on
global change."</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=35346">http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=35346</a>
<br>
</p>
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