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<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>January 27, 2023</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ Slate looks at the culture of setting expectations ]</i><br>
<b>One Hundred Years of Certitude</b><br>
We thought we knew how often heavy storms and deadly floods were
supposed to occur. We were wrong.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">BY HENRY GRABAR</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">JAN 25, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">American infrastructure is designed around a
simple idea: We can predict how often the worst storms will come.
Take the benchmark that undergirds the $1.2 trillion National
Flood Insurance Program: the 100-year flood. That’s a flood that’s
supposed to occur once a century, on average. A once-in-a-lifetime
event. Similar estimates govern basic stormwater infrastructure:
Sewers might be designed for a two-year rainstorm (likely to occur
once every two years) or culverts for a 25-year rainstorm (once
every quarter-century).</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">These probabilities are also used in modeling
the absolute worst cases, such as California’s ARkStorm scenario—a
2010 U.S. Geological Survey project that imagined how a month of
constant rain might turn the Central Valley into a giant lake,
flooding 1 in 4 of the state’s buildings, forcing the evacuation
of 1.5 million people, and causing more than three times as much
damage as the better-known nightmare earthquake popularly known as
“The Big One.” In addition to offering a potent biblical allusion,
ARk stands for “atmospheric river 1,000,” because scientists
originally thought those levels of precipitation would occur once
every 500 to 1,000 years.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">But other estimates suggest that such a storm
might occur once every 100 to 200 years. And a more recent
analysis concludes that climate change has caused the likely
“recurrence interval” of an ARkStorm to creep closer to once each
century—an ARcStorm. The last one was in 1862. “Climate change is
dramatically upping the odds of a very high magnitude flood event
happening in our lifetimes, specifically,” the authors wrote last
August. This month’s record-breaking California rain, in other
words, is a warmup. How did they come to that conclusion? By
plugging more recent weather history into their simulation...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">It’s older data, however, that determines much
about the way we plan cities, price flood insurance, and build
infrastructure, because historical records determine the crucial
benchmark of the “100-year” storm and all its derivatives. The
idea of evaluating storms and floods by their likely interval of
recurrence was adopted in the 1960s to help administer the newly
created National Flood Insurance Program, and has been complained
about ever since.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The 100-year flood metric, wrote the geographer
Rutherford Platt, is “unique in the annals of resource management
policy for its durability over several decades … despite chronic
griping and hand-wringing by three generations of floodplain
managers.” In theory, Americans ought to want to prepare for the
100-year flood, which sounds frightening. But as Platt observed,
if you were more likely to die than see one, why bother?
Probabilities like this govern the design of everything from storm
drains to levees to flood insurance, but they are probabilities
from last century—and the storms are different now.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">When Hurricane Harvey struck Houston in 2017,
it was the city’s third 500-year flood in three years. Over four
days, Harvey’s 30 to 40 inches of rain across the region made it a
storm likely to occur just once every 3,000 to 20,000 years, at
least according to the established metrics. Last summer, there
were five “1,000-year” rain events in five weeks, in Dallas,
eastern Kentucky, eastern Illinois, St. Louis, and Death Valley.
California just broke a bunch of rainfall records this month,
including in well-measured locations like Los Angeles and San
Francisco.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The long-term trend is beyond dispute: Between
1958 and 2012, according to the 2014 National Climate Assessment,
the amount of rain falling in the biggest storms grew by 37
percent in the Midwest, 27 percent in the South, and 71 percent in
the Northeast. Do last century’s weather records still hold water?
Some researchers have concluded they don’t. One study concluded
that a 7.4-foot storm surge flood in New York City has progressed
from a 500-year event before the industrial revolution to a
25-year event today, and will be a five-year occurrence in a few
decades. Something similar is happening with heavy rain events.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Unfortunately, yesterday’s numbers are
currently being used to plan tomorrow’s stormwater infrastructure,
a burst of which will be funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure
Law that President Joe Biden signed in 2021. As NPR’s Lauren
Sommer put it this month, “many cities aren’t constructing
infrastructure to handle increasing amounts of water, because the
rainfall records they use to design it are decades-old in most
states.” Lacking money, expertise, or political will, they are
preparing for a bygone world of weather.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration has been authorized to develop a more modern
rainfall atlas, as well as one that takes climate change into
account, but that work won’t be done in time for current projects.
“There’s a timing disconnect for sure,” said Chad Berginnis,
executive director of the Association of State Floodplain
Managers. “No doubt this infrastructure is not going to have as
much benefit because it’s authorized at the same time as this NOAA
update. But I’m not going to let the perfect be the enemy of the
good.” Better to build something, in other words.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Some cities are going a step further. After
Harvey, Houston officials amended the land use code to apply
identical standards to the 100-year and 500-year flood plains—even
though one is supposedly five times less likely to flood. In
Seattle, planners looked at a climate impact tool and decided to
expand a new stormwater tunnel from 14 feet in diameter to 18
feet. After Madison, Wisconsin, flooded in 2018, the city decided
to raise its design standards for new development—a culvert under
a road, for example, now must be built for the 100-year event,
instead of the 25-year event. But many smaller jurisdictions do
not have the expertise, money, or political will to go beyond what
the federal government is recommending.</font><br>
- -<br>
<font face="Calibri">“Right after the big floods in eastern
Kentucky, I got the records from the U.S. Geological Survey,”
Haneberg said. “People were talking about thousand-year floods;
well I got those records from one stream gauge location,
Whitesburg, and they had data only to 1957. So the question is:
How do you determine that?”</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Meteorologists counsel against looking too
closely at such headlines as evidence that the climate has already
gone haywire. For one thing, it’s a big country—there’s always a
huge storm somewhere. For another, the number of broken records is
a poor judge of a changing climate. For a third, we have more data
than ever even across small geographic areas. “We weren’t slicing
and dicing things so finely until recently,” cautions Bob Henson,
a meteorologist and journalist with Yale Climate Connections.
“It’s analogous to getting ever-more fine MRI scans and detecting
phenomena you wouldn’t see before.” In Houston, for example, a
500-year flood on Cypress Creek in 2016 was just a 50-year flood a
few miles downstream. A hundred years ago we might have had just
one gauge there, if that...</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">But the consequences of predicting the future
on a flawed set of records are not abstract. Last year marked the
100th anniversary of one of America’s most consequential
forecasting mistakes. The Colorado River Compact of 1922, which
set the course for a century of infrastructure, agriculture, and
development in the western United States, predicted how much water
the mighty river would send toward the Gulf of California based on
a small, and very wet, sample of years. The river has since
receded to the historical mean and then some, as the western
United States has faced repeated severe droughts. States are
bickering over their river-water allocations. Hydroelectric dams
are running low on fuel...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">But figuring out how much rain falls from the
sky is only half the battle. You also have to figure out where it
goes once it lands. Here, climate change brings additional
problems that toy with our probability tables. Very wet soil, very
dry soil, burn scars, or erosion can change the way a fixed
quantity of rain hits the ground. Urbanization has also created
new flood zones, shaped not by hills and valleys but by parking
lots, undersized sewer lines, blocked storm drains, and broken
pumps. In urban areas, runoff is increasing faster than rainfall,
and urban flooding may be a harbinger of what stronger storms will
bring to greener areas in the decades to come.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">When the First Street Foundation mapped flood
risk accounting for rainfall flooding and changing storm
expectations, it found almost twice as many parcels in the
100-year flood zone as FEMA has in its maps—1 in 10 U.S.
properties. But even the idea of a 100-year flood zone doesn’t sit
right with some scientists. You’re not in or out; danger comes on
a spectrum. Moreover, some flood zones—a few feet from a crashing
ocean, or in a steep and isolated river valley—are more dangerous
than others.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">All of it adds up to a sense that what happened
in the last 100 years may not be the best predictor of the weather
today—let alone tomorrow. How to adjust for changing rainfall and
flooding expectations is complicated. Infrastructure, most people
agree, should be designed to serve its purpose for many decades.
(The Dutch have built the Maeslant Barrier for a 10,000-year
storm.) Insurance, most people agree, should reflect current risk,
not future risk. But how do you account for future flood risk in
land use or building regulations? Often our expanded sense of risk
winds up penalizing lower-income Americans on low-lying land with
outdated infrastructure. You can choose to spare them the burden
of adaptation, but is that fair to prospective buyers, or to their
neighbors who will bail them out?</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Ultimately, said Haneberg, the Kentucky
geologist, the questions here are political. “What’s the point?”
he asked. “Are we trying to help people rebuild or prevent flood
damage?” When it comes to rainstorms, a hundred years ain’t what
it used to be.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://slate.com/business/2023/01/100-year-floods-california-rain-climate-change-infrastructure.html"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://slate.com/business/2023/01/100-year-floods-california-rain-climate-change-infrastructure.html</a></font><br>
<p><i><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i></p>
<p><i><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ media psychologist Britt Wray, PhD -
Gen Dread - this is a useful and important communique ] <br>
</font></i><font face="Calibri"><b>Here’s a helpful new way to
visualize your journey through climate distress</b><br>
A professor at the University of Helsinki has created a roadmap
that shows how people mentally and emotionally move from climate
denial to climate awakening, shock, adjustment, and
transformation.<br>
Britt Wray<br>
Jan 24</font><font face="Calibri"> 2023<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Think about where you’re currently standing in
your awareness of the climate crisis. <br>
<br>
Maybe you’ve had your eyes painfully wide open for years now,
organizing protests, writing to politicians, and devouring George
Monbiot (the books, not the man himself). Or maybe the gravity of
what we’re facing has only recently started to hit you.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Either way, what’s important here is that you
have spanned some serious ground. You’ve changed. At some point,
you started moving from a place of indifference, disavowal, or
denial into a place of understanding, acceptance, and adaptation.
That’s an incredibly uncomfortable and courageous thing to do,
especially while so many people around you just continue to shrug.<br>
<br>
If you tried to draw your feelings about the climate crisis, what
would they look like?<br>
So, here’s a question: what has your evolution felt like? Has it
been sudden or gradual? What emotions has it brought up for you?
When you first began to realize that life on earth is facing a
profoundly grave and rapidly worsening threat, did you feel angry?
Despondent? Or did it energize you and propel you into activism?
What colour were your feelings when the realization first crept
in? Has that colour shifted over time, or stayed the same?<br>
<br>
As more and more people begin to awaken to the severity of the
climate crisis, we need language to name and describe that
transformation and the emotional challenges it ignites. Imagine we
had a visual depiction of this vibrant, painful, life-changing
experience, a road map for how to move through it ourselves while
also reminding us to hold space and deepen our empathy for people
who might be behind us or ahead of us in the journey. <br>
<br>
Dr. Panu Pihkala has just given us this very thing.<br>
<br>
Dr. Pihkala, a Professor in Environmental Theology at the
University of Helsinki, has just unleashed “The Process of
Eco-Anxiety and Ecological Grief”... [more... ]<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://gendread.substack.com/p/heres-a-helpful-new-way-to-visualize"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://gendread.substack.com/p/heres-a-helpful-new-way-to-visualize</a></font><i><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i>
<p><i><font face="Calibri">- -</font></i></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ Britt Wray YouTube 40 min video - general
distress - worth viewing, worth bookmarkign ]<br>
</font></i><font face="Calibri"><b>Protecting Blue
Nature/Protégeons la nature bleue- Episode 3 - Britt Wray</b><br>
IMPAC5Canada<br>
Jan 18, 2023<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXsl8-xveN8"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXsl8-xveN8</a></font><i><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font></i>
<p><i><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font></i> </p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Academic paper helps with analysis of our
predicament ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>The Process of Eco-Anxiety and
Ecological Grief: A Narrative Review and a New Proposal</b><br>
</font><font face="Calibri">by Panu Pihkala<br>
Faculty of Theology, HELSUS Sustainability Science Institute,
University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 4, 00014 Helsinki, Finland<br>
Sustainability 2022, 14(24), 16628; <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416628"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416628</a><br>
Received: 28 October 2022 / Revised: 2 December 2022 / Accepted: 8
December 2022 / Published: 12 December 2022<br>
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Psychology of
Sustainability: Expanding the Scope)</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Abstract</b> <br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">As the ecological crisis grows more
intense, people experience many forms of eco-anxiety and
ecological grief. This article explores the broad process of
encountering eco-anxiety and ecological grief, and engages in
the constructive task of building a new model of that process.
Eco-anxiety and grief are here seen as fundamentally healthy
reactions to threats and loss, and only the strongest forms of
them are seen as problems. The aim is to help researchers,
various professionals and the general public by providing a
model which is (a) simple enough but (b) more nuanced than stage
models which may give a false impression of linearity. The
article uses an interdisciplinary method. The proposed new model
includes both chronological and thematic aspects. The early
phases of Unknowing and Semi-consciousness are followed
potentially by some kind of Awakening and various kinds of Shock
and possible trauma. A major feature of the model is the
following complex phase of Coping and Changing, which is framed
as consisting of three major dimensions: Action
(pro-environmental behavior of many kinds), Grieving (including
other emotional engagement), and Distancing (including both
self-care and problematic disavowal). The model predicts that if
there is trouble in any of these three dimensions, adjusting
will be more difficult. The model thus helps in seeing, e.g.,
the importance of self-care for coping. The possibility of
stronger eco-anxiety and/or eco-depression is always present,
including the danger of burnout. The ethical and psychological
aim is called Adjustment and Transformation, which includes
elements of, e.g., meaning-finding and acceptance. The need for
Coping and Changing continues, but there is more awareness and
flexibility in a metaphase of Living with the Ecological Crisis,
where the titles and subtitles of the three dimensions of coping
are switched.<br>
</font></blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://pub.mdpi-res.com/sustainability/sustainability-14-16628/article_deploy/html/images/sustainability-14-16628-ag.png?1670917107"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://pub.mdpi-res.com/sustainability/sustainability-14-16628/article_deploy/html/images/sustainability-14-16628-ag.png?1670917107</a></font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/24/16628"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/24/16628</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ May 28 </i><i>Written By Trevor Lehmann]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>An Imperfect Guide to Career and
Climate</b><br>
</font><font face="Calibri">There is a lot of uncertainty in the
world right now.<br>
Uncertainty about the economy<br>
Uncertainty about the ecosystem<br>
Uncertainty about our health<br>
<br>
More than anything, we are worried that the future is going to be
a lot worse than the present…and we want to do something about it!<br>
<br>
But how? With so many problems these situations can feel
overwhelming<br>
<br>
The gap between awareness of climate change as a threat and a
sense of how to respond both individually and collectively has
been referred to as the “hope gap.” <br>
<br>
As a career counsellor, I have worked for years helping adults at
all stages of their career, especially young adults. I write this
guide in the hopes that these exercises will help you start moving
towards building a brighter future and closing the hope gap. To
find moments of climate empowerment amidst the climate-crisis and
over time, to expand that empowerment to a greater portion of your
life.<br>
<br>
This guide is far from comprehensive, but my hope is that the
resources ahead will get you moving and engaged in meaningful
action. While self-reflection is important as well as emotional
processing, there is a limit on what can be know before you set
out to do something and it is this second point I work to address.<br>
<br>
If you are someone concerned about the planet and uncertain of
your place in, my hope is the writing ahead will help you take
steps towards a brighter future.<br>
<br>
I recommend reading the guide in the following sections in order:<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">What is a Career?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Assessments Part 1: Interests </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Assessments Part 2: Values</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Assessments Part 3: Personality</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Researching Occupations</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The Truth About Green Jobs</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Managing our Emotions</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Cultivating Hope</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Acting Local</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Exploring Activism</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri">As the name implies, this guide is a work in
progress. If you have suggestions, please contact me with any I
would love to hear from you.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://trevorlehmann.squarespace.com/an-imperfect-guide-to-career-and-climate/home"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://trevorlehmann.squarespace.com/an-imperfect-guide-to-career-and-climate/home</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ Opinionista </i></font><font
face="Calibri"><i>Rebecca Watson is one of my favorite video
bloggers</i></font><font face="Calibri"><i> -- dis and
mis-information and propaganda watch ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Big Oil Bought my Favorite Science
Influencer</b><br>
Rebecca Watson<br>
23,149 views Jan 26, 2023<br>
SUPPORT more videos like this at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://patreon.com/rebecca" moz-do-not-send="true">http://patreon.com/rebecca</a><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg81dHXEGMc"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg81dHXEGMc</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i>[ A video opinion -- assume, post-doom,
bloom, etc... ]</i><br>
<b>Michael Dowd -- Is Human Survival Possible?</b><br>
Facing Future<br>
549 views Jan 26, 2023 #MichaelDowd #PeterFiekowsky
#ClimateCrisis<br>
In this excerpt from "The Interview of the Century" , the full
version of which can be found at VitaSapien.org, #MichaelDowd
and #PeterFiekowsky discuss the burning question of whether or
not it will be possible to prevent the #ClimateCrisis from
becoming catastrophic. <br>
Hosted by Guy Lane<br>
For more information on the state of our planet, visit the
FacingFuture Library at <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://facingfuture.earth/library"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://facingfuture.earth/library</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmaJOsw30e4"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmaJOsw30e4</a><br>
<br>
- -</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><i>[ Michael Dowd's Post Doom Web Site ]</i><br>
Post Doom<br>
<b>Regenerative conversations exploring overshoot grief,
grounding, and gratitude.</b><br>
<br>
A foreboding sense of climate chaos, societal breakdown, and
economic and ecological “doom” is now widespread. Acknowledging
our predicament and working through the stages of grief takes
one only to the midpoint: acceptance. What lies beyond? Michael
Dowd (with occasional co-hosts) invites 75 guests to share their
personal journeys along this trajectory and especially the gifts
they have found on the other side.<br>
<br>
‘Post-doom’ means living, loving, and relating honorably with
awareness that…<br>
• Our inescapable predicament encompasses all aspects of
life.<br>
• There are aspects of abrupt climate change and global
pandemics beyond our control.<br>
• Climate chaos is a symptom of ecological overshoot of
Earth’s carrying capacity.<br>
• Human-centered measures of progress and wellbeing are
ecocidal and self-terminating.<br>
• Human-centered technology and the market are false gods,
creating hell on Earth.<br>
• The extinction of rapacious industrial humanity (Homo
colossus) is inevitable and necessary.<br>
• The extinction of Homo sapiens this century or next
cannot be ruled out.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://postdoom.com/"
moz-do-not-send="true">https://postdoom.com/</a><br>
<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - looking back at
instructional moments ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>January 27, 1995</b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> January 27, 1995: The New York Times reports:</font><br>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri">"Whatever
happened to global warming? The question was on many lips a year
ago, when the northeastern United States suffered through its
bitterest winter in years. Now an exceptionally warm winter has
whipsawed perceptions about the world's climate once again.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> "An answer has become apparent in annual
climatic statistics in the last few days: global warming,
interrupted as a result of the mid-1991 eruption of Mount
Pinatubo in the Philippines, has resumed -- just as many experts
had predicted.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> "After a two-year cooling period, the
average temperature of the earth's surface rebounded in 1994 to
the high levels of the 1980's, the warmest decade ever recorded,
according to three sets of data in the United States and
Britain.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> "The earth's average surface temperature
last year closely approached the record high of almost 60
degrees measured in 1990. That was the last full year before the
Pinatubo eruption, which cooled the earth by injecting into the
atmosphere a haze of sulfurous droplets that reflected some of
the sun's heat."</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri"><a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/1995/01/27/us/a-global-warming-resumed-in-1994-climate-data-show.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm"
moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.nytimes.com/1995/01/27/us/a-global-warming-resumed-in-1994-climate-data-show.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <br>
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</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">======================================= <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b class="moz-txt-star"><span
class="moz-txt-tag">*Mass media is lacking, many </span>daily
summaries<span class="moz-txt-tag"> deliver global warming
news - a few are email delivered*</span></b> <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><br>
=========================================================<br>
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