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<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>February 8, 2023</b></i></font><br>
<br>
<i>[ new conditions from Severe Weather Europe - where they have
better computers ]</i><br>
<b>A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming, collapsing the Polar
Vortex and potentially impacting the weather in late-month and
early Spring</b><br>
By Andrej Flis<br>
7/02/2023<br>
A new and stronger warming event is developing in the
Stratosphere, which will collapse the polar circulation. As a
result, a so-called Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is now
forecast to displace the Polar Vortex and potentially shake the
weather patterns in the coming weeks.<br>
<br>
Weather and the stratospheric Polar Vortex are strongly connected,
especially in the cold weather season. So high-energy events such
as stratospheric warmings can always have a high-impact result.<br>
<br>
You will see what is currently going on in the Stratosphere and
how the warming events are brewing around the Polar Vortex. But
perhaps more importantly, we will look closely at the latest
trends, which are starting to show the typically expected weather
impacts from these high-power stratospheric events.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/andrej-news/polar-vortex-circulation-stratospheric-warming-collapse-weather-forecast-united-states-north-hemisphere-pressure-3D-structure-cold-snowfall-event-february-march.png">https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/andrej-news/polar-vortex-circulation-stratospheric-warming-collapse-weather-forecast-united-states-north-hemisphere-pressure-3D-structure-cold-snowfall-event-february-march.png</a><br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The Polar Vortex extends high up into the
atmosphere. You can see the atmospheric layers in the image below.
The lowest level of the atmosphere is called the troposphere,
where all the weather events are. But above that, we have the
Stratosphere, a deeper and drier layer and the home of the ozone
layer.<br>
<br>
For this reason, we tend to separate the entire Polar Vortex into
an upper (stratospheric) and a lower (tropospheric) part. They
both play their role differently, which is why we monitor them
separately. But it is also very important if they are properly
connected—image by NOAA-Climate.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">So to recap, the Polar Vortex behaves like a
very large cyclone, covering the whole north pole down to the
mid-latitudes. It is connected through all atmospheric levels,
from the ground up, but can have different shapes at different
altitudes.<br>
<br>
We monitor any Polar Vortex activity because it can have weather
implications across the entire Northern Hemisphere. And that is
regardless if it is weak or strong.<br>
<br>
A strong Polar Vortex usually means strong polar circulation. This
locks the colder air into the Arctic circle, creating milder
conditions for most of the United States and Europe.<br>
<br>
In contrast, a weak Polar Vortex creates a weak jet stream
pattern. As a result, it has a harder time containing the cold
air, which can now escape from the polar regions into the United
States and Europe. Image by NOAA.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/andrej-news/polar-vortex-weather-forecast-north-hemisphere-what-is-polar-vortex-strong-weak-circulation-winter-pattern-jet-stream-anomaly-stratospheric-breakdown.png">https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/andrej-news/polar-vortex-weather-forecast-north-hemisphere-what-is-polar-vortex-strong-weak-circulation-winter-pattern-jet-stream-anomaly-stratospheric-breakdown.png</a><br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">This is why a Sudden Stratospheric Warming
event (SSW) can be such a game-changer, as it can shift the mode
from a strong to a weak Polar Vortex in a short time.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Conclusion</b><br>
Hurricane Marie will soon become a Category 3 hurricane – the
third major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. So
far, there have been 18 tropical depressions forming in the
region, quite a low number for this part of the tropics so far.<br>
<br>
There were only 13 named storms, where 3 of those were hurricanes
and 2 major hurricanes forming (Douglas, Genevieve) this season.
Normally, there are 15.4 named storm and7.6 hurricanes.<br>
<br>
We are monitoring the further development of hurricane Marie –
stay tuned for additional updates as major hurricane strength
emerges on Friday...<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">For tropical cyclone warning purposes,
the northern Pacific is divided into three regions:<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">– the Eastern Pacific (North
America to 140° West)</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">– the Central Pacific (140° West to 180°)</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">– the Western Pacific (180° to 100° East)</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri">Hurricane season of the Eastern Pacific runs
between May 15th and November 30th each year. This area is, on
average, the second-most active tropical basin in the world.<br>
<br>
There is an average of 16 tropical storms each, where 9 of them
become hurricanes, and 4 of them become major hurricanes.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Most of the east Pacific storms or hurricanes
originate from a tropical wave that drifting westward across the
intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and across northern parts
of South America. Once the wave reaches the Pacific, a surface low
begins to develop.<br>
<br>
If the wind shear is low, a tropical cyclone can undergo rapid
intensification as a result of very warm oceans, becoming a major
hurricane.<br>
<br>
Tropical cyclones weaken once they reach unfavorable areas for a
tropical cyclone formation further west in the Central Pacific.
However, hurricanes or their remnants sometimes reach the Hawaii
archipelago.<br>
<br>
There are a few types of Pacific hurricane tracks: one is a
westerly track, another moves north-westward along Baja California
and another moves north.<br>
<br>
Sometimes storms can move north-east either across Central America
or mainland Mexico and possibly enter the Caribbean Sea becoming a
North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone, but these are quite rare.<br>
<br>
The Western North Pacific has tropical systems which are called
typhoons. This separation between the two basins has a practical
convenience, however, as tropical cyclones rarely form in the
central North Pacific due to high vertical wind shear, and few
cross the dateline.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/sudden-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-collapse-effect-forecast-february-march-united-states-europe-fa/">https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/sudden-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-collapse-effect-forecast-february-march-united-states-europe-fa/</a></font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ time to recall the classic weather
display for global conditions ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Earth Null School</b><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://earth.nullschool.net/">https://earth.nullschool.net/</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ Insurance losses cover natural disasters
text and audio ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>The Role of Insurance in Climate Adaptation</b><br>
JENESSA DUNCOMBE <br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">2/07/23<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">--[ listen to the story
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://whowhatwhy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/amazon_polly_74170.mp3?version=1675798450">https://whowhatwhy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/amazon_polly_74170.mp3?version=1675798450</a>
]<br>
</font> <br>
Tropical storms and hurricanes bring immediate and direct economic
damage to communities and may also reduce a country’s economic
growth for more than a decade. Models that determine climate policy
in the United States have been criticized for ignoring the impacts
of such extreme weather events over time.<br>
<br>
A new study highlights a way to stave off economic effects by
promoting a widespread public insurance plan for Americans. The
research supports the growing movement to use insurance — a key
tool for managing society’s risk — as a form of climate adaptation.<br>
<br>
“Insurance can be a major building block of future climate change
adaptation strategies, at least in developed countries,” wrote a
team of German economists behind the work. Climate adaptation seeks
to change and prepare society for the effects of climate change
today and in the future.<br>
<br>
“Insurance can be a major building block of future climate change
adaptation strategies.”<br>
<br>
Climate Coverage<br>
Global leaders and scientists gather at the Conference of the
Parties (COP) each year to discuss the challenges of climate change.
At the 2022 COP, “climate risk insurance was discussed as a main
measure to adapt to climate change,” said lead author and economist
Christian Otto from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research.<br>
<br>
Still, researchers are debating how much insurance can help.
Generally, insured economies grow slower than uninsured economies,
Otto said. “It takes time to file an insurance claim. It takes time
for the insurance payout to arise to reconstruct things. It was an
open question for us if insurance can indeed be an effective means,”
he explained.<br>
<br>
To find out, the researchers created a growth model for a simplified
US economy. The model tracked losses to the stock of physical assets
(buildings, roads, machinery, and other tangible things) as
increasingly destructive storms made landfall. The model accounts
for accumulated losses from storms over time, capturing the fact
that communities can still be recovering from one storm when another
hits.<br>
<br>
The hypothetical insurance scheme used in the model is a mandatory
nonprofit government-offered policy that is available everywhere at
a flat fee. The scheme uses the average rate of insured losses from
US hurricanes over the past several decades (50 percent) tallied by
the natural disaster database NatCatSERVICE from the German-based
insurance company Munich Re.<br>
<br>
The United States doesn’t have an insurance policy like this
currently, although a close analog is the National Flood Insurance
Program from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). But the
program isn’t compulsory and isn’t available to everyone.<br>
<br>
An Economic Cushion<br>
In the simplified US economy, past annual economic growth losses
would have been cut in half with a compulsory insurance policy in
effect. The results also show that despite climate change
supercharging storms, insurance could dampen future economic growth
losses for the United States.<br>
<br>
In a simplified US economy, annual economic growth losses are cut in
half when half the U.S. population is insured.<br>
<br>
The model computes the percent annual average growth of the economy
after a storm compared with the growth of an economy without a
storm. By turning off and on different types of insurance caps and
coverage and storm frequencies and intensities, the researchers
sussed out the effectiveness of insurance as a climate adaptation
tool.<br>
<br>
In a 2 degrees Celsius warmer world, the percentage of direct asset
losses covered by insurance would need to be raised to compensate
for the losses from climate change-fueled storms. Depending on how
tropical storms evolve with a shifting climate, insurance policies
would need to cover 58 percent to 84 percent of direct asset losses
— not 50 percent, the historical average. These numbers “seem within
reach,” said Otto.<br>
<br>
But insurance has its limits, said Otto. Current policies are
pushing us toward a 2.7 degrees Celsius warmer world, according to
the Climate Action Tracker. In the worst-case scenario projections
for hurricanes, 100 percent of direct asset losses would have to be
covered to account for increased losses from climate change. That’s
unrealistic, said Otto.<br>
<br>
Although the study suggests that better insurance coverage helps
compensate for tropical storm-related economic growth losses in the
United States, Otto stressed that their study couldn’t consider
everything. Instead, they write, their work presents “an optimistic
upper limit” of insurance in mitigating disaster.<br>
<br>
The authors will continue to test the effectiveness of insurance in
other countries. They published the work in Science Advances in
January.<br>
<br>
No One-Size-Fits-All Solution<br>
Insurance wouldn’t be as effective for all countries, however. The
researchers repeated the analysis using the economy of Haiti, a
hurricane-prone island with a much less developed insurance market
than the United States.<br>
<br>
According to the study, even with insurance that covers 100 percent
of asset losses, economic growth losses are too significant for the
Haitian government to handle. Insurance coverage must be partnered
with other measures such as better housing standards, resilient
infrastructure, and community-led relocation.<br>
<br>
“The case of Haiti stresses the importance of international climate
finance,” Otto said. Aid for loss and damages, a term that describes
the consequences of climate change that surpass what humans can
adapt to, is one example.<br>
<br>
“The case of Haiti stresses the importance of international climate
finance.”<br>
<br>
“The authors show that reducing the share of uninsured assets is a
simple and effective means to mitigate the adverse effects on growth
that they estimate,” said economist Francesco Lamperti at the
Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies in Pisa, Italy, and the
European Institute on Economics and the Environment in Milan, Italy.
Lamperti was not involved with the research.<br>
<br>
“Otto and his coauthors develop a simple, transparent, and elegant
model,” Lamperti said. He particularly applauded the model’s ability
to consider the cumulative effect of multiple storms in sequence.<br>
<br>
Derek Lemoine, an environmental economist at the University of
Arizona who was also not involved in the work, concurred but urged
the researchers to go further. He said two areas of focus are
accounting for the possibility that surviving infrastructure would
be less exposed after a storm and allowing for new infrastructure to
be less vulnerable when rebuilt.<br>
<br>
“For stakeholders and policymakers, I would stress that insurance
can be an effective means,” Otto said. “Every one-tenth degree of
warming we can avoid really matters for the damages.”<br>
<br>
This story by Jenessa Duncombe was originally published by Eos
Magazine and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism
collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://eos.org/special-reports">https://eos.org/special-reports</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://whowhatwhy.org/economy/the-role-of-insurance-in-climate-adaption/">https://whowhatwhy.org/economy/the-role-of-insurance-in-climate-adaption/</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Got Sunshine? Make solar power - one
man living near Denver rants - YouTube video 6:40 mins ] </i><br>
</font> <b>Peter Zeihan - The Solar Power Problem(s)</b><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://youtu.be/tJvpn98XsHQ">https://youtu.be/tJvpn98XsHQ</a><br>
Zeihan on Geopolitics<br>
165,521 views Feb 6, 2023 #solar #greentech #energy<br>
For solar power to make sense, there's one non-negotiable
component...and yes, it's that bright, shiny thing in the sky - the
sun. But just because your planet has a sun doesn't mean you should
use solar power...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJvpn98XsHQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJvpn98XsHQ</a>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ a modest question -- video 33 min - CO2 is
about 421 ppm ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>The Global Thermostat - A Crazy
Megaproject That Just Might Work</b><br>
Joe Scott<br>
1.56M subscribers<br>
184,055 views Feb 6, 2023<br>
Our climate is constantly changing. And right now, we're what's
changing it. What if we could find a way to stabilize it to ensure
our survival long-term? What if we could create a thermostat for
planet Earth? Here's what that might look like.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">TIMESTAMPS<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">0:00 - Intro</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">1:35 - CO2 Levels</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">2:54 - Mining The Sky</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">9:22 - Climeworks</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">10:23 - Carbon Engineering</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">11:17 - Global Thermostat</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">12:25 - Additional Startups</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">14:19 - Carbon Market</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">18:00 - How Much Carbon Do We Need?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">23:17 - This Is How We Do It</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">26:13 - The Caveats</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOmmKTDSWCY">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOmmKTDSWCY</a></font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ Gunfire and big grid equipment -
engineering lecture video 12 mins ]</i></font><br>
<b>What Really Happened with the Substation Attack in North
Carolina?</b><b><br>
</b>Practical Engineering<br>
1,324,432 views Jan 17, 2023 Electrical Grid<br>
An overview of the substation attack in Moore County, North Carolina
in December 2022.<br>
This event highlights the need for making critical substations more
secure and also making the grid more robust so that someone can’t
rob tens of thousands of people of their lights, heat, comfort, and
livelihood for four days with just a few well-placed bullets.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPwY-FTqWxM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPwY-FTqWxM</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ State of the Union mentions Global Warming in the Inflation
Reduction Act - video ]</i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Biden discusses climate change during State
of the Union address</b><br>
"[The] Inflation Reduction Act is also the most significant
investment ever in climate change," President Joe Biden said.<br>
February 7, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/biden-discusses-climate-change-state-union-address-96966615">https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/biden-discusses-climate-change-state-union-address-96966615</a><br>
</font> <br>
<font face="Calibri"><br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back when a carbon tax was
seriously considered ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>February 8, 2017</b></i></font> <br>
February 8, 2017:<br>
<br>
The Washington Post reports:<br>
<br>
“A coalition of veteran GOP officials — including five who have
either served as treasury secretary or as chairs of the Council of
Economic Advisers — will meet Wednesday with top White House
officials to discuss the prospect of imposing a national carbon
tax, rather than using federal regulations, to address climate
change.<br>
<br>
“The newly formed Climate Leadership Council — which includes
James A. Baker, Henry Paulson, George P. Shultz, Marty Feldstein
and Greg Mankiw — is proposing elimination of nearly all of the
Obama administration’s climate policies in exchange for a rising
carbon tax that starts at $40 per ton and is returned in the form
of a quarterly check from the Social Security Administration to
every American.”<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/07/senior-republican-leaders-propose-replacing-obamas-climate-plans-with-a-carbon-tax/?utm_term=.47ee3068d3e2">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/07/senior-republican-leaders-propose-replacing-obamas-climate-plans-with-a-carbon-tax/?utm_term=.47ee3068d3e2</a>
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/opinion/a-conservative-case-for-climate-action.html?ref=opinion">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/opinion/a-conservative-case-for-climate-action.html?ref=opinion</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">======================================= <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b class="moz-txt-star"><span
class="moz-txt-tag">*Mass media is lacking, many </span>daily
summaries<span class="moz-txt-tag"> deliver global warming
news - a few are email delivered*</span></b> <br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><br>
=========================================================<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>*Inside Climate News</b><br>
Newsletters<br>
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every
day or once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s
top headlines deliver the full story, for free.<br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
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--------------------------------------- <br>
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