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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>February 16, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"> </font> <br>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Social destabilization, report should be
considered - from the Guardian ] </i><br>
</font> <font face="Calibri"><b>World risks descending into a
climate ‘doom loop’, warn thinktanks</b><br>
Report says simply coping with escalating impacts of climate
crisis could override tackling root cause<br>
</font> Damian Carrington Environment editor<br>
@dpcarrington<br>
Thu 16 Feb 2023<br>
The world is at risk of descending into a climate “doom loop”, a
thinktank report has warned.<br>
<br>
It said simply coping with the escalating impacts of the climate
crisis could draw resources and focus away from the efforts to slash
carbon emissions, making the situation even worse.<br>
<br>
The damage caused by global heating across the globe is increasingly
clear, and recovering from climate disasters is already costing
billions of dollars. Furthermore, these disasters can cause
cascading problems including water, food and energy crises, as well
as increased migration and conflict, all draining countries’
resources.<br>
<br>
The researchers, from the Institute for Public Policy Research
(IPPR) and Chatham House, said a current example of the impact of
the climate crisis complicating efforts to reduce emissions and
other action was the debate over whether keeping the global
temperature rise below 1.5C – the international goal – was still
possible.<br>
<br>
Those arguing 1.5C was still possible risked perpetuating
complacency that today’s slow pace of action was sufficient, the
researchers said, while those arguing it was not possible risked
supporting fatalism that little that could now be done, or “extreme
approaches” such as geoengineering.<br>
<br>
Avoiding a doom loop required a more honest acceptance by
politicians of the great risks posed by the climate crisis, the
researchers said, including the looming prospect of tipping points
and of the huge scale of the economic and societal transformation
required to end global heating. This should be combined with
narratives that focused on the great benefits climate action brought
and ensuring policies were fairly implemented.<br>
<br>
“We’ve entered, sadly, a new chapter in the climate and ecological
crisis,” said Laurie Laybourn, an associate fellow at IPPR. “The
phoney war is coming to an end and the real consequences now present
us with difficult decisions. We absolutely can drive towards a more
sustainable, more equitable world. But our ability to navigate
through the shocks while staying focused on steering out the storm
is key.”<br>
<br>
The report said: “This is a doom loop: the consequences of the
[climate] crisis draw focus and resources from tackling its causes,
leading to higher temperatures and ecological loss, which then
create more severe consequences, diverting even more attention and
resources, and so on.”...<br>
- -<br>
“The thing I’m most concerned about is that we’re not factoring in
the cascading risks to societies,” said Laybourn. “It’s not just the
big city-smashing storms we should be concerned about, it’s the
consequences that ripple through our globalised systems.”<br>
- -<br>
Unfairness in climate policy could drive the doom loop, Laybourn
said, because if people felt unaffordable changes were being forced
on them they would reject the need for a green transition. But, he
added: “If you have fairness at the heart of things, it can instead
be a virtuous circle, if you’re in a situation where people
recognise that switching to a heat pump and having better insulation
will be better for them regardless of the climate crisis.”<br>
- -<br>
Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at
the London School of Economics, said: “This report rightly
highlights the critical point we have reached, namely the increasing
likelihood that global temperature will rise by more than 1.5C. This
does not mean that we should abandon the target.<br>
<br>
“Our main aim should still be radical emissions cuts to try to avoid
breaching 1.5C, but we should now also be considering what happens
if we continue to fail.<br>
<br>
“This will mean bringing temperatures back down [and] we will have
to invest in geoengineering options such as carbon dioxide removal
and even solar radiation management. But it also means we will have
to spend far more on dealing with [climate] damage, which will make
it more difficult to make the transition to a sustainable, inclusive
and resilient world.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/16/world-risks-descending-into-a-climate-doom-loop-warn-thinktanks">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/16/world-risks-descending-into-a-climate-doom-loop-warn-thinktanks</a><br>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ IPPR Chatham House report posted Feb 16, 2023 ]</i><br>
<b>1.5°C – dead or alive? The risks to transformational change from
reaching and breaching the Paris Agreement goal</b><br>
The historical failure to sufficiently tackle the climate and
ecological crisis could create consequences that challenge the
ability of societies to tackle the root causes of this crisis.<br>
This is a doom loop: the consequences of the crisis and the failure
to address it draw focus and resources from tackling its causes. We
describe this as a ‘strategic risk’ to our collective ability to
realise a transformation of societies that ultimately avoids
catastrophic climate and ecological change.<br>
[ download the publication ]
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ippr.org/files/2023-02/1676546139_1.5c-dead-or-alive-feb23.pdf">https://www.ippr.org/files/2023-02/1676546139_1.5c-dead-or-alive-feb23.pdf</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/1-5c-dead-or-alive">https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/1-5c-dead-or-alive</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ Doomsday Glacier melting in unexpected
ways - video explanation of new research papers ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier is much more
Precarious than we thought due to Basil Crevice Melt</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Paul Beckwith</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Feb 15, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Achilles
Keel is Thwaites Glacier, or the so-called Doomsday Glacier. When
it goes, global sea levels rise over half a meter (1.65 ft), and
the rest of the WAIS then becomes vulnerable to collapse (4-5
meters global sea level rise).</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Today (Feb 16, 2023) two extremely important
peer reviewed scientific papers were published online that detail
observations in the small sliver of water underneath the glacier
and just above the seafloor near the Grounding Line (GL), which is
the key terminus region where the glacier contacts the seafloor. A
Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) was passed through a hole
(diameter just larger than a basketball) passing through the 587
meter thick ice (drilled out with a hot water jet) into the 54
meter thick water sliver at the bottom of the ice. </font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">This ROV measured ocean currents, temperature,
salinity, etc. and passed the data and a real-time video feed
through a fiber optic cable back to the scientists at the surface.
</font><br>
<br>
<b><font face="Calibri">Key Findings:</font></b><br>
<font face="Calibri">The water temperature, about 2 C above freezing
(theoretically capable of melting 30-40 meters of ice thickness
per year) melted the horizontal undersurface of the ice only 5
meters per year (much slower than expected, due to a 2 meter thick
layer of cold fresh meltwater insulating the ice from the warmer
saltier water below).</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">But, and it’s a huge but:</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">There were basal crevasses in the ice that had
vertical walls melting at over 30 meters per year, with melt rates
as high as 43 meters per year.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">These vertical crevices in the ice eventually
reach to the top of the ice sheet as it thins seaward, and lead to
complete fracturing of the ice shelf.</font><br>
<br>
<font face="Calibri">Bottom line: It won’t be a surprise if this ice
shelf (150 km front, glacier as large as Florida) fractures and
catastrophically collapses within the next decade.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYkCbksUrAQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYkCbksUrAQ</a></font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ See the paper in the Journal nature ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Published: 15 February 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Suppressed basal melting in the eastern
Thwaites Glacier grounding zone</b></font><br>
<blockquote><b><font face="Calibri">Abstract</font></b><br>
<font face="Calibri">Thwaites Glacier is one of the
fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in Antarctica. Much of the
ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites Glacier is grounded
below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland, making it
susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could raise
the global sea level by more than half a metre. The rate and
extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are
set by the ocean conditions and basal melting within the
grounding-zone region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat,
both of which are largely unknown. Here we show—using
observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the
grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is
characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with
temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing
point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and
strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer
actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice
base, resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our
results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal
melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce
observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier,
and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may
be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates.</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05586-0">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05586-0</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"></font>
<p>- -</p>
<i>[ printed AP news article by Seth Borenstein ]</i><br>
<b>Skinny robot documents forces eroding Doomsday Glacier</b><br>
By SETH BORENSTEIN<br>
2-14-2023<br>
Scientists got their first up-close look at what’s eating away part
of Antarctica’s Thwaites ice shelf, nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier
because of its massive melt and sea rise potential, and it’s both
good and bad news...<br>
- -<br>
Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who wasn’t
part of the studies, said the results add to understanding how
Thwaites is diminishing.<br>
<br>
“Unfortunately, this is still going to be a major issue a century
from now,” Scambos said in an email. “But our better understanding
gives us some time to take action to slow the pace of sea level
rise.”<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://apnews.com/article/science-climate-and-environment-glaciers-ae2b053b434c4dd3767bbec2442d874a">https://apnews.com/article/science-climate-and-environment-glaciers-ae2b053b434c4dd3767bbec2442d874a</a><br>
<p>- -<br>
</p>
<i>[ AP - more local danger of thin ice - Vermont - rather
danger is thinking our world as it was in the past ]</i><br>
<b>Vermont ice fishing deaths highlight safety protocols</b><br>
February 14, 2023<br>
SOUTH HERO, Vt. (AP) — Vermont authorities could not have done
anything more to prevent the deaths of three ice fishermen who fell
through the ice on Lake Champlain in two separate incidents within
days of each other, the head of the Vermont Fish and Wildlife
Department said Tuesday...<br>
- -<br>
Ice conditions are typically good at this time of year for ice
fishing, but it has been unusually warm, according to Chris Herrick,
commissioner of the Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife. The
department always recommends checking the ice — with a metal pole or
an auger — and never recommends taking a vehicle onto the ice,
Herrick said.<br>
<br>
“All along, like we always do, we tell people to check the ice
conditions, talk to the bait shops and find out what people were
saying about the thickness. And so I feel our messaging was right on
target,” he said.<br>
The department had put out a news release on Jan. 3 about
recommended ice thickness, followed by a social media post. It also
supplied ice fishing safety tips and other information online...<br>
- -<br>
Vermont State Police said following the deaths that state
authorities were advising “the public to stay off the ice on Lake
Champlain while the current warm weather persists.”<br>
<br>
State leaders have identified warming temperatures as a concern,
especially in recreation. The rate of warming “has increased through
the last 120 years, and is currently around +0.5°F a decade,”
according to the Initial Vermont Climate Action Plan released in
2021...<br>
- -<br>
Vermont State Police said following the deaths that state
authorities were advising “the public to stay off the ice on Lake
Champlain while the current warm weather persists.”<br>
<br>
State leaders have identified warming temperatures as a concern,
especially in recreation. The rate of warming “has increased through
the last 120 years, and is currently around +0.5°F a decade,”
according to the Initial Vermont Climate Action Plan released in
2021...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://apnews.com/article/vermont-climate-and-environment-48b197613ce486f7ba6b74f1d0f0abff">https://apnews.com/article/vermont-climate-and-environment-48b197613ce486f7ba6b74f1d0f0abff</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ history of one powerful storm ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri"><b>The Storm
That Killed Millions, Created A Nation, And Almost Led To
Nuclear War</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Joe Scott</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdFGSkh5X24">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdFGSkh5X24</a></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -</font></p>
<i><font face="Calibri">[ book about a weather event that struck at
the very worst time and place ]</font></i><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>Into The Vortex With Author Scott Carney -
Episode 23</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Conversations With Joe</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Feb 12, 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXahQUpFaJ8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXahQUpFaJ8</a></font><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <br>
<i>[The news archive - looking back at how slowly this topic was
considered by US presidents. ]</i><br>
<font size="+2"><i><b>February 16, 2002</b></i></font> <br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"> February 16, 2002: In response to President
George W. Bush's February 14, 2002 speech on climate change, the
New York Times editorial page declares: </font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">"The obvious conclusion to be drawn from
President Bush's latest global warming strategy, unveiled this
week, is that he does not regard warming as a problem. There
seems no other way to interpret a policy that would actually
increase the gases responsible for heating the earth's
atmosphere. That the policy demands little from the American
people, while insulting allies who have agreed to take tough
steps to deal with the problem, only adds to one's sense of
dismay."</font></p>
<blockquote>
<p><font face="Calibri">Opinion<br>
<b>Backward on Global Warming</b><br>
Feb. 16, 2002<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">The obvious conclusion to be drawn from
President Bush's latest global warming strategy, unveiled this
week, is that he does not regard warming as a problem. There
seems no other way to interpret a policy that would actually
increase the gases responsible for heating the earth's
atmosphere. That the policy demands little from the American
people, while insulting allies who have agreed to take tough
steps to deal with the problem, only adds to one's sense of
dismay.<br>
<br>
The White House described Mr. Bush's strategy as aggressive
and bold. The only thing bold about it are accounting tactics
worthy of Enron that are designed to make an increase in
emissions look like a decrease.<br>
<br>
The plan is voluntary and consists mainly of tax credits and
other incentives to encourage Americans to limit emissions.
There is nothing wrong with voluntary measures or with the
credits. Several American companies have already reduced
emissions on their own, partly for environmental reasons and
partly because the efficiencies required to achieve reductions
make economic sense.<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">But these piecemeal efforts have been
undertaken largely in the expectation that at some point the
United States would join in a collective attack on the buildup
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which mainstream
scientists now agree could trigger unwelcome changes in the
earth's climate. Mr. Bush has refused to join that effort,
abandoning his campaign pledge to limit carbon emissions and
renouncing the 1997 Kyoto Protocol committing industrialized
nations to mandatory reductions of carbon and other greenhouse
gases.<br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri">Mr. Bush's long-awaited substitute for
Kyoto is a disappointment. The essence of his strategy is a
concept that seems to have been minted for the occasion,
called ''emissions intensity,'' under which carbon dioxide
pollution would be allowed to grow, but at a slower rate than
economic output. That sounds attractive, but it misses the
point. The buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
already alarmingly high, is a cumulative process. Thus the
name of the game is to stop adding new emissions to the vast
amounts already up there, not simply to slow their growth.<br>
<br>
Yet that is all Mr. Bush is proposing to do, meanwhile
dressing up his meager agenda with some squirrely math. He
first posits an increase in emissions that is higher and more
rapid than the forecasts of his own Energy Department. Then,
from this ''business-as-usual'' baseline, he promises
reductions of 18 percent in the next 10 years. By his own
figures, however, actual emissions -- the ones that count --
could rise by 14 percent, which is exactly the rate at which
they have been rising for the last 10 years.<br>
<br>
Mr. Bush's speech also included proposals aimed at reducing
three other pollutants largely unrelated to global warming:
mercury, sulfur dioxide -- the main cause of acid rain -- and
nitrogen oxides, which contribute to urban smog. The president
called for stronger, mandatory caps on all three pollutants
and for market-based mechanisms like emissions trading to help
companies meet those targets. Mr. Bush would substitute this
''cap and trade'' approach for the complex system of
regulations that now govern clean air enforcement.<br>
<br>
In principle, these are fine ideas. But before disposing of
the existing regulatory structure, Congress must be fully
satisfied that the president's proposals will in fact achieve
the sizable reductions he and his senior associates say they
will. We cannot abandon existing law for a promise. Meanwhile,
Congress is obliged to do something, and soon, to develop a
credible national strategy on global warming. On this score
Mr. Bush has fallen well short of the mark.<br>
</font></p>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/16/opinion/backward-on-global-warming.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/16/opinion/backward-on-global-warming.html</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
backwards on global warming
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/13/opinion/climate-change-effects-countries.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-op-climate&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_opinion_swipe_recirc">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/13/opinion/climate-change-effects-countries.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-op-climate&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_opinion_swipe_recirc</a><br>
</font>
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