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<font size="+2" face="Calibri"><i><b>March 1, 2023</b></i></font><font
face="Calibri"><br>
</font> <i><br>
</i><i>[ constant vigilance, more heat, more fighting - research
says]</i><br>
<b>Climate change as a global amplifier of human–wildlife conflict</b><br>
Briana Abrahms, Neil H. Carter, T. J. Clark-Wolf, ... Gaynor,
Johansson, McInturff, Nisi, Rafiq & West...<br>
Nature Climate Change (2023)...<br>
<blockquote><b>Abstract</b><br>
Climate change and human–wildlife conflict are both pressing
challenges for biodiversity conservation and human well-being in
the Anthropocene. Climate change is a critical yet
underappreciated amplifier of human–wildlife conflict, as it
exacerbates resource scarcity, alters human and animal behaviours
and distributions, and increases human–wildlife encounters. We
synthesize evidence of climate-driven conflicts occurring among
ten taxonomic orders, on six continents and in all five oceans.
Such conflicts disrupt both subsistence livelihoods and industrial
economies and may accelerate the rate at which human–wildlife
conflict drives wildlife declines. We introduce a framework
describing distinct environmental, ecological and sociopolitical
pathways through which climate variability and change percolate
via complex social–ecological systems to influence patterns and
outcomes of human–wildlife interactions. Identifying these
pathways allows for developing mitigation strategies and proactive
policies to limit the impacts of human–wildlife conflict on
biodiversity conservation and human well-being in a changing
climate.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01608-5">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01608-5</a><br>
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</p>
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</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ fake global warming facts pop up in
ChatGPT query ] </i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri">Dr. Gretchen
Hansen</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">@gretchen_H20</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><b>I heard that #ChatGPT generates fake
citations, But I had to see for myself. I asked for scientific
papers on #climatechange and #fish. And I got what appears to be
a great list! However, these papers DO NOT EXIST. </b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri">ChatGPT wrongly insists that they are real
papers. 🧵</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">It even pulled DOIs from other papers
and assigned them to the fake papers it made up. For example, the
made up paper from 2008 attributed to <br>
@oldenfish is actually from a different journal, different
authors, and is about invasive plants. (2/5)<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">---</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Dr. Gretchen Hansen</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">@gretchen_H20</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Feb 27</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">So I guess this confirms what I have heard -
definitely do not use #ChatGPT for finding scientific papers or
building a bibliography! My lab group is going to explore #ChatGPT
and its utility/dangers for other academic topics in a few weeks,
so stay tuned for more fun!...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://twitter.com/gretchen_H20/status/1630336823846223872">https://twitter.com/gretchen_H20/status/1630336823846223872</a></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"></font>
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</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Marxism is related to degrowth -- are
both inevitable? ]</i><br>
<b>A greener Marx? Kohei Saito on connecting communism with the
climate crisis</b><br>
Maya Goodfellow<br>
Author of surprise hit Capital in the Anthropocene has developed
his arguments in a new study of Karl Marx’s ecological thinking<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">When academic Kohei Saito submitted his
manuscript on Karl Marx, the ecological crisis and arguments for
degrowth economics, he hoped it might introduce at least some
people in Japan to a new perspective on the climate crisis.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Fast forward three years and the subsequent
book, Capital in the Anthropocene, has sold more than half a
million copies and Saito, a thoughtful 36-year-old, is now
something of a Marxist celebrity.<br>
<br>
“It was a big surprise,” admits Saito on Zoom from his study in
Tokyo, “because who cares about Marx and communism?”<br>
<br>
Now Saito, who says he has not always been a “degrowth communist”,
has written a more academic text, Marx in the Anthropocene, which
builds on those arguments to propose degrowth communism as a “new
way of living”.<br>
<br>
At a time when degrowth economics is being hotly debated within
and outside the environmental movement, Saito’s aim, he explains,
is to “overcome the divide between Marxism and degrowth”, bringing
together the red and the green. Many in the environmental movement
argue that capitalism and its “infinite accumulation on a finite
planet … is the root cause of climate breakdown”, writes Saito.
But because Marx’s writings on ecology have often been
marginalised, there’s a view that his socialism is
pro-technological and anti-ecological – supporting the development
of technologies to lay the foundation for a post-capitalist
society and ignoring nature’s limits, believing it can be
dominated by humans. According to Saito, it is possible and
necessary to reconstruct Marx so we can see how he analysed
economic and ecological crisis.<br>
<br>
Saito first studied Marx when he was an undergrad at the
University of Tokyo, trying to understand degrading working
conditions among temporary workers in Japan...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">“With his growing interest in ecology,” Saito
writes, “Marx came to see the plunder of the natural environment
as a manifestation of the central contradiction of capitalism.”<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">By synthesising these different approaches,
Saito developed a “unique way of reading Marx”, he says, as a
“degrowth ecological communist”.<br>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Degrowth argues that economic growth – the holy
grail for governments in most countries – is simply not
sustainable and that to stop climate breakdown, we need to reduce
consumption. Saito cites Jason Hickel’s work as one example. He is
conscious of the critique that denying many countries in the
global south the chance to “develop” in the way the north has
could be destructive to people who are already very poor. Woven
throughout Marx in the Anthropocene is a mindfulness of this
global imbalance. “Like many degrowth people I limit the scope of
the argument to the global north, developed countries like the UK,
Japan and the US. I am obviously pro-growth for those poor
countries in the global south.” What is needed to achieve that is
a new idea of “abundance” and “progress”, Saito says. Everyone on
the planet should have access to the basic things we need to live
– electricity, water, education – but “we need to come up with a
vision where mass production, mass consumption and mass waste can
be avoided.”...<br>
- -<br>
Still, you may wonder why such a deep engagement with a
19th-century thinker matters today. Saito argues that Marx’s way
of understanding the relationship between humans and nature –
encapsulated in the theory of “metabolic rift”, a vigorously
debated subject in Marxist circles – can determine how we respond
to the climate and ecological crisis we now face. The basic
premise of this thesis is that human/nature interaction is the
“basis of living”, but capitalism organises “human interactions
with their ecosystems” in such a way that it creates “a great
chasm in these processes and threatens both human and nonhuman
beings”, Saito says. Some criticise this concept, arguing that it
divides nature and society so as to ignore how the former is
completely transformed by capitalism. But Saito doesn’t agree.<br>
<br>
His use of the term Anthropocene is meant to recognise that the
“entire planet is now fully transformed by our economic
activities”, but he rejects that this means we don not have to
distinguish between nature and society. If we understand the two
as the same, Saito argues, we risk believing environmental
problems can be overcome through more human intervention. We must
be attuned to the differences to grasp what “we cannot change” –
such as temperature increases due to CO2 and the natural chain
reactions that flow from that – and what we can: most urgently
“the fossil fuel industry”, Saito says...<br>
- -<br>
Capitalism doesn’t just flout natural scarcity, caring little for
the planet’s limits, Saito argues – it artificially creates a
social scarcity, where we are always compelled to want more: the
latest phone, car or jacket. But we can reorganise our
relationship with nature, Saito insists, to imagine a new kind of
abundance: regulating advertising, SUV usage and constant mobile
phone model changes while “distributing both wealth and burdens
more equally and justly among members of the society”. Some
sectors – those that don’t make a profit and so are underdeveloped
in capitalism – would be improved, which would mean more money and
resources for “education, care work, art, sports and public
transportation”.<br>
<br>
Saito maintains this is not a miserabilist alternative future.
Pointing to Kate Soper’s thinking, he says that the constant need
to engage in competitive work and consumption is not a mark of the
good life and in fact limits opportunities for fulfilling
experiences outside the market. Without the need to produce for
excessive, unnecessary consumption (that which is “necessary” for
economic growth, not the development of the individual), jobs
could be fundamentally changed. We could spend far fewer hours
working, using our abilities and talents to do what we can and
sharing the unpleasant and boring tasks more fairly...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font><font face="Calibri">One question, though, is how possible
any of this actually is. Saito is aware of the challenges, but he
points to Gen Z, Just Stop Oil, climate protests around the world,
and Alberto Garzón, the Spanish minister for consumer affairs, who
recently wrote about the limits of growth. This is a big change
compared with the past 30 years, when such movements have been
marginalised. “I am hoping the 2020s and 2030s will become much
more turbulent as the crisis deepens,” he says, and hopes that the
amount of radical protest will grow and changes in our values will
continue to accelerate.<br>
<br>
“What I am trying to do,” Saito says at the end of our
conversation, “is, inspired by these movements, offer something
for them … I tried to show why it is necessary to criticise
capitalism and why socialism or communism can be a more solid
foundation for their movements too.”<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/28/a-greener-marx-kohei-saito-on-connecting-communism-with-the-climate-crisis?utm_term">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/28/a-greener-marx-kohei-saito-on-connecting-communism-with-the-climate-crisis?utm_term</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Newly published book, reality may help
this along ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Marx in the Anthropocene</b><br>
Towards the Idea of Degrowth Communism</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">Kohei Saito, University of Tokyo</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Publisher: Cambridge University Press</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Online publication date: January 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Print publication year: 2023</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Online ISBN:9781108933544</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">DOI:<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108933544">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108933544</a></font><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri">Facing global climate crisis, Karl Marx's
ecological critique of capitalism more clearly demonstrates its
importance than ever. This book explains why Marx's ecology had to
be marginalized and even suppressed by Marxists after his death
throughout the twentieth century. Marx's ecological critique of
capitalism, however, revives in the Anthropocene against dominant
productivism and monism. Investigating new materials published in
the complete works of Marx and Engels (Marx-Engels-Gesamtausgabe),
Saito offers a wholly novel idea of Marx's alternative to
capitalism that should be adequately characterized as degrowth
communism. This provocative interpretation of the late Marx sheds
new lights on the recent debates on the relationship between
society and nature and invites readers to envision a
post-capitalist society without repeating the failure of the
actually existing socialism of the twentieth century.<br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/marx-in-the-anthropocene/D58765916F0CB624FCCBB61F50879376">https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/marx-in-the-anthropocene/D58765916F0CB624FCCBB61F50879376</a><br>
</font></p>
<p><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.amazon.com/Marx-Anthropocene-Kohei-Saito/dp/1009366181/ref=sr_1_1">https://www.amazon.com/Marx-Anthropocene-Kohei-Saito/dp/1009366181/ref=sr_1_1</a><br>
</font></p>
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</font></p>
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</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ China's heavy coal, viewed by
motorcycle journalists ]</i></font><br>
<b>Horrifying - China’s Secret Coal Addiction is Destroying the
World</b><br>
ADVChina<br>
1,200 views Feb 28, 2023<br>
China keeps telling the world that it's the leader in green
technology... and the world keeps believing it. The reality is that
it just expanded even more usage of coal, and keeps doing it every
single day. <br>
Conquering China Box Set -
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://vimeo.com/ondemand/conqueringchinaboxset">https://vimeo.com/ondemand/conqueringchinaboxset</a><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfIoS9NB0Wg">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfIoS9NB0Wg</a><br>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<i>[ time to build houses out of stone and steel ]</i><br>
<b>An incendiary form of lightning may surge under climate change</b><br>
Warming temperatures could drive up the rate of flashes, increasing
the risk for more wildfires<br>
By Nikk Ogasa<br>
Feb 28, 2023<br>
<br>
A form of lightning with a knack for sparking wildfires may surge
under climate change.<br>
<br>
An analysis of satellite data suggests “hot lightning” — strikes
that channel electrical charge for an extended period — may be more
likely to set landscapes ablaze than more ephemeral flashes,
researchers report February 10 in Nature Communications. Each 1
degree Celsius of warming could spur a 10 percent increase in the
most incendiary of these Promethean bolts, boosting their flash rate
to about four times per second by 2090 — up from nearly three times
per second in 2011.<br>
That’s dangerous, warns physicist Francisco Javier Pérez-Invernón of
the Institute of Astrophysics of Andalusia in Granada, Spain. “There
will be more risk of lightning-ignited wildfires.”<br>
<br>
Among all the forces of nature, lightning sets off the most blazes.
Flashes that touch down amid minimal or no rainfall — known as dry
lightning — are especially effective fire starters. These bolts have
initiated some of the most destructive wildfires in recent years,
such as the 2020 blazes in California (SN: 12/21/20).<br>
<br>
But more than parched circumstances can influence a blast’s ability
to spark flames. Field observations and laboratory experiments have
suggested the most enduring form of hot lightning — “long continuing
current lightning”— may be especially combustible. These strikes
channel current for more than 40 milliseconds. Some last longer than
one-third of a second — the typical duration of a human eye blink.<br>
<br>
“This type of lightning can transport a huge amount of electrical
discharge from clouds to the ground or to vegetation,”
Pérez-Invernón says. Hot lightning’s flair for fire is analogous to
lighting a candle; the more time a wick or vegetation is exposed to
incendiary energy, the easier it kindles.<br>
<br>
Previous research has proposed lightning may surge under climate
change (SN: 11/13/14). But it has remained less clear how hot
lightning — and its ability to spark wildfires — might evolve.<br>
<br>
Pérez-Invernón and his colleagues examined the relationship between
hot lightning and U.S. wildfires, using lightning data collected by
a weather satellite and wildfire data from 1992 to 2018.<br>
<br>
Long continuing current lightning could have sparked up to 90
percent of the roughly 5,600 blazes encompassed in the analysis, the
team found. Since less than 10 percent of all lightning strikes
during the summer in the western United States have long continuing
current, the relatively high ignition count led the researchers to
infer that flashes of hot lightning were more prone to sparking fire
than typical bolts.<br>
<br>
The researchers also probed the repercussions of climate change.
They ran computer simulations of the global activity of lightning
during 2009 to 2011 and from 2090 to 2095, under a future scenario
in which annual greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2080 and then
decline.<br>
<br>
The team found that in the later period, climate change may boost
updraft within thunderstorms, causing hot lightning flashes to
increase in frequency to about 4 strikes per second globally — about
a 40 percent increase from 2011. Meanwhile, the rate of all
cloud-to-ground strikes might increase to nearly 8 flashes per
second, a 28 percent increase.<br>
<br>
After accounting for changes in precipitation, humidity and
temperature, the researchers predicted wildfire risk will
significantly increase in Southeast Asia, South America, Africa and
Australia, and risk will go up most dramatically in North America
and Europe. However, risk may decrease in many polar regions, where
rainfall is projected to increase while hot lightning rates remain
constant.<br>
<br>
It’s valuable to show that risk may evolve differently in different
places, says Earth systems scientist Yang Chen of the University of
California, Irvine, who was not involved in the study. But, he
notes, the analysis uses sparse data from polar regions, so there is
a lot of uncertainty. Harnessing additional data from ground-based
lightning detectors and other data sources could help, he says.
“That [region is] important, because a lot of carbon can be released
from permafrost.”<br>
<br>
Pérez-Invernón agrees more data will help improve projections of
rates of lightning-induced wildfire, not just in the polar regions,
but also in Africa, where blazes are common but fire reports are
lacking.<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hot-lightning-strike-wildfire-spark-risk-climate-change">https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hot-lightning-strike-wildfire-spark-risk-climate-change</a><br>
<p>- - <br>
</p>
<i>[ 41% global increase ] </i><br>
<b>Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate
change</b><br>
Published: 10 February 2023<br>
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Heidi
Huntrieser & Patrick Jöckel <br>
Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 739 (2023) Cite
this article<br>
<b>Abstract</b><br>
<blockquote>Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and
Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be
the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous
studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial
pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of
lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is
uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC
lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC
lightning projections under the Representative Concentration
Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning
parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms.
We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate.
Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North
America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia,
and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern
polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon
release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC
lightning are needed to project the occurrence of
lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change.<br>
</blockquote>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36500-5">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36500-5</a>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
[ New Climate ]<br>
<b>CORPORATE CLIMATE RESPONSIBILITY MONITOR 2023</b><br>
Publication date 13 Feb 2023<br>
The Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor assesses the
transparency and integrity of 24 major companies’ climate pledges
and strategies. It evaluates four main areas of corporate climate
action: tracking and disclosure of emissions, setting emission
reduction targets, reducing own emissions, and taking responsibility
for unabated emissions through climate contributions or offsetting.<br>
<br>
<b>Key Insights</b><br>
The 24 companies assessed in this report are major multinational
companies. Their total self-reported GHG emission footprint in 2019,
including upstream and downstream emissions (scope 3) amount to
approximately 2.2 GtCO2e. This is equivalent to roughly 4% of global
GHG emissions in 2019. Ten of the 24 companies were also assessed in
the 2022 Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor. The repeat
analysis of this small sub-set of companies offers insights into
what progress has been made over the past year.<br>
<br>
Most companies’ climate strategies are mired by ambiguous
commitments, offsetting plans that lack credibility and emission
scope exclusions, but replicable good practice can be identified
from a minority.<br>
<br>
The companies analysed in the 2023 Corporate Climate Responsibility
Monitor have put themselves forward as climate leaders. The 24
global companies that we have assessed comprise of the largest three
global companies from eight major-emitting sectors, including only
those that are members of an initiative affiliated with the Race to
Zero campaign. Through this, they have committed themselves to
preparing and implementing decarbonisation plans that align with the
objective to limit warming to 1.5°C. These companies serve as role
models for other large, medium, and small companies around the
world. The analysis of these companies should provide the best
prospects for the identification of replicable good practice.
Scrutiny of their plans is also necessary to identify whether these
companies set the right examples.<br>
<br>
Overall, we find the climate strategies of 15 of the 24 companies to
be of low or very low integrity. We found that most of the
companies’ strategies do not represent examples of good practice
climate leadership. Companies’ climate change commitments often do
not add up to what their pledges might suggest...<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://newclimate.org/resources/publications/corporate-climate-responsibility-monitor-2023">https://newclimate.org/resources/publications/corporate-climate-responsibility-monitor-2023</a><br>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font></p>
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</font></p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ Storm Surge -- grows bigger and bigger,
with greater potential ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>What's The Deepest Storm Surge In
History? And How Many Are At Risk If It Hits Again?</b><br>
PBS Terra<br>
171,274 views Nov 29, 2022<br>
{ no survey - expired }<br>
Global sea level is rising at about 0.14 inches per year. This
gradual change may seem small until something catastrophic
happens. That’s what happened when category 4 hurricane Ian made
landfall at Fort Myers on September 28, 2022, bringing with it
some 15 feet of storm surge. <br>
<br>
Believe it or not, we didn’t really understand what caused storm
surge until recently. Meteorologists used to believe that it was
essentially a storm’s wind speed that was mostly behind the influx
of saltwater onto land. But since hurricane Katrina in 2005 we’ve
learned that there are many factors at play, including storm size,
direction, and speed as well as the offshore bathymetry.<br>
<br>
As our seas rise and hurricanes get stronger, it is important that
we understand more about storm surge – the most dangerous part of
a hurricane. In this episode of Weathered we tell the story behind
the best video we’ve ever seen of storm surge – or any storm
footage for that matter – captured by storm chaser Max Olson’s
probe. And we’ll tell you why it matters. <br>
<br>
Weathered is a show hosted by weather expert Maiya May and
produced by Balance Media that helps explain the most common
natural disasters, what causes them, how they’re changing, and
what we can do to prepare.<br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AULpqdZxGtE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AULpqdZxGtE</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri">- -<br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <i>[ So just count the population at
elevation and add the rate of change ]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <b>Sea Level Rise Could Trigger ‘Mass
Exodus on a Biblical Scale’, UN Chief Warns</b></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <font face="Calibri">CRISIS - SEA
LEVEL RISE <br>
</font><font face="Calibri">BY MARTINA IGINI -- GLOBAL COMMONS --
FEB 16TH 20233 </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Sea Level Rise Could Trigger ‘Mass Exodus on a
Biblical Scale’, UN Chief Warns</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Speaking to the United Nations Council on
Tuesday, Guterres urged governments to act as climate
change-fuelled sea level rise threatens the lives of more than 900
million people living in low-lying coastal areas around the
world...</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri">—</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><font face="Calibri">Accelerating sea
level rise could displace one in every 10 people on the planet,
triggering massive economic, social, and cultural disruptions
worldwide, UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the UN
Security Council on Tuesday.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> He described the predicted dislocation of
nearly 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas as a
“mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale” that would
drive “ever-fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other
resources.” </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Humans started measuring the level of seas more
than 200 years ago and found this to be an important climate
indicator of how rapidly global warming is accelerating. Today,
sea levels are rising more than twice as quickly as they did for
most of the 20th century due to increasing Earth temperatures. </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Throughout most of the last century, seas rose
at a rate of 1.4mm per year. However, between 2006 and 2015, the
rate nearly doubled, reaching about 3.6mm annually. According to
last year’s State of the Climate Report by the World
Meteorological Organization, in 2020, the sea was at its highest
recorded level, with the global mean reaching 91.3mm above the
average in 1993, the year that marks the beginning of the
satellite altimeter record. Not surprisingly, 2020 was also among
the three warmest years the world has ever had with tropical
cyclones occurring well above average at the same time.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Sea-level rise projections show that, even if
the world follows a low greenhouse gas pathway, the level of seas
globally will continue to rise up to about 0.7m by the end of this
century. However, should the world fail to cut down emissions and
reach the 3C or even 4C mark, sea levels could rise as much as
2.8m above 2000 levels by 2100. </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> According to the United Nations, the potential
costs associated with damage caused by sea level rise could reach
US$111.6 billion by 2050 and more than $360 billion by the end of
the century.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> Speaking about the “dramatic” threats of sea
level rise to global peace and security, Guterres called on
governments to tackle pressing issues such as poverty, develop
international laws to protect those affected and displaced by
rising seas, and slash emissions since how much sea levels will
rise in the coming years is mainly dictated by the level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> The UN warned last year that the world is on
track to warm well above 1.5C – the critical threshold ascribed in
the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. The news came as the
atmospheric concentration of the three greenhouse gases – carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – all hit new record levels.
Reaching 2C or more of global warming would be “a death sentence
for vulnerable countries,” Guterres said on Tuesday.</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> </font> <br>
<font face="Calibri">The UN chief also urged developed countries to
deliver on the loss and damage fund – the historical deal reached
at Egypt’s COP27 last year to help developing countries that are
“particularly vulnerable” deal with the harm caused by global
warming – as well as to double adaptation finance and unlock
private financing “at a reasonable cost.” <br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://earth.org/sea-level-rise-guterres/">https://earth.org/sea-level-rise-guterres/</a><br>
</font>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<font face="Calibri"><i>[ The competition for our Human race is
between the Smarties and the Stupidos - video opinion]</i><br>
</font><font face="Calibri"><b>Human Extinction: What Are the Risks?</b><br>
Sabine Hossenfelder<br>
Dec 31, 2022 #science<br>
<br>
Correction to what I say at 11 mins 50 seconds: A supervolcano
eruption ejects more than 1000 cubic kilometers of matter (not
1000 cubic meters). Sorry about that!<br>
<br>
What do we know about the risks of human going extinct? In today's
video I collect what we know about the frequency of natural
disasters and just how they would kill us, and estimates for
man-made disasters. <br>
<br>
👉 Transcript and References on Patreon ➜
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.patreon.com/Sabine">https://www.patreon.com/Sabine</a><br>
📖 Check out my new book "Existential Physics" ➜
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://existentialphysics.com/">http://existentialphysics.com/</a><br>
<br>
/ @sabinehossenfelder <br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri">00:00 Intro</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">00:30 What Is an Existential Risk?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">02:00 Would Extinction be Bad?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">04:18 Man-made Disasters</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">10:36 What's The Risk of Man-made Disasters?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">11:35 Natural Disasters</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">13:38 What's the Risk of Natural Disasters?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">16:55 Why Can't the LHC Produce Black Holes?</font><br>
<font face="Calibri">19:29 Protect Your Data with NordVPN</font><br>
</blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQVgt5eFMh4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQVgt5eFMh4</a><br>
</font>
<p><font face="Calibri"><br>
</font> </p>
<font face="Calibri"> <br>
</font><font face="Calibri"> <i>[The news archive - looking back -
it may have been delivered then, but no memo was needed ]</i></font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> <font size="+2"><i><b>March 1, 2001</b></i></font>
</font><br>
<font face="Calibri"> March 1, 2001: </font><br>
<font face="Calibri">Energy lobbyist Haley Barbour sends a memo to
Vice President Dick Cheney calling on President George W. Bush to
abandon his September 2000 campaign pledge to cut CO2 emissions.<br>
</font>
<blockquote><font face="Calibri"><b>White House Shifted Policy After
Lobbyist's Letter</b><br>
By The Associated Press<span class="css-1baulvz last-byline"
itemprop="name" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px
none; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal;
font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;
font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit;
font-size: 15px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align:
baseline; display: inline-block; color: rgb(54, 54, 54);
letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,
255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;
text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;"></span><br>
In a memo to Vice President Dick Cheney two weeks before a major
policy reversal, Haley Barbour, a lobbyist and former chairman
of the Republican National Committee, urged the Bush White House
to adopt a stance on carbon dioxide emissions from coal-burning
power plants favorable to industry.<br>
<br>
''A moment of truth is arriving,'' Mr. Barbour wrote to Mr.
Cheney on March 1, 2001, in a two-page document on his lobbying
firm's letterhead.<br>
<br>
''The question is whether environmental policy still prevails
over energy policy with Bush-Cheney, as it did with
Clinton-Gore,'' Mr. Barbour wrote.<br>
<br>
The Commerce Department released a copy of the memo today in a
court case brought by the conservative group Judicial Watch,
which is suing the Bush administration for records about White
House energy policy. The memo was one of thousands of pages of
documents released by the departments of Commerce, Energy and
Transportation.<br>
<br>
In a sharp policy switch two weeks after Mr. Barbour's memo,
President Bush backed out of a campaign promise to regulate
carbon dioxide emissions. A White House spokesman, Jimmy Orr,
said Mr. Bush was not unduly influenced by the energy industry.<br>
<br>
''The president based his decision on what he believes is right
for all Americans and has pursued the most aggressive initiative
in American history to cut power-plant emissions as well as
embarking on a new strategy for addressing global climate
change,'' Mr. Orr said. ''The president makes his decisions
based on merit.''<br>
<br>
In the memo, Mr. Barbour said he was ''demurring'' on the idea
of whether regulating carbon dioxide emissions was
''eco-extremism.'' But, he wrote, ''we must ask, do
environmental initiatives, which would greatly exacerbate the
energy problems, trump good energy policy, which the country has
lacked for eight years?''<br>
<br>
Among Mr. Barbour's 50 clients at the time was an industry
lobby, the Electric Reliability Coordinating Council. The group,
which paid Barbour's firm $500,000 last year, was set up by
power generators including the FirstEnergy Corporation, Duke
Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority.<br>
<br>
FirstEnergy gave more than $500,000 to the Republican Party in
the 2000 presidential campaign and $70,000 to the Democratic
Party. Duke Energy gave more than $100,000 to the Republican
Party in the campaign and $15,000 to the Democratic Party.<br>
<br>
In his campaign, Mr. Bush proposed curbing mercury, smog-causing
nitrogen oxide, sulfur and carbon dioxide. The new Environmental
Protection Agency administrator, Christie Whitman, embraced the
strategy, but references to it were removed from Mr. Bush's
first address to Congress.<br>
<br>
In mid-March of last year, Mr. Bush changed course, saying that
the nation's energy problems, rather than pressure from
lobbyists, led him not to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from
coal-burning power plants.<br>
<br>
Mr. Barbour said in his signed memo to Mr. Cheney, ''For the
eight years of the Clinton administration environmental policy
prevailed over energy policy.'' Copies went to Karl Rove, Mr.
Bush's top political strategist; Andrew H. Card Jr., the
president's chief of staff; Commerce Secretary Donald L. Evans;
Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham; and Interior Secretary Gale A.
Norton.<br>
</font></blockquote>
<font face="Calibri"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/26/us/white-house-shifted-policy-after-lobbyist-s-letter.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/26/us/white-house-shifted-policy-after-lobbyist-s-letter.html</a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
</font>
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